Ten Bets for TFF #53-Vol. 4 / Pause: Moves This Week... / Back to the 4th Ten Bets / Who's Got What? Distributors: Focus Features

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53-VOL. 4

Last week's Ten Bets list:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.

PAUSE: MOVES THIS WEEK...

We'll get to the new Ten Bets after this ...

Variety reports that hot property Elsinore starring Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman has been acquired by Focus Features after what they report as a:

"a competitive bidding war among several studios for the Simon Stone-directed drama"

MTFB has been following the emergence of the film since last week marking it as a late breaking possibility for TFF #53.  Variety's tory on the acquisition by Focus also had something to say about that:

"Sources tell Variety that programmers at each of the fall festivals — Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York — are circling the title, though a premiere venue has yet to be set."

The Playlist  underscored the point reporting that:

"(Elsinore) is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for."

The way I read that is that all four fests are eager to program the film and now it's matter of what Focus wants to do...where they wan to with the film.  It sure doesn't slow down the speculation that it might well be included for The SHOW.

Add that to the other notices last week that Artificial had been invited by "all the major fall festivals" per The Playlist.  

On top of that, Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut seems to be picking up steam with his claim that the film will debut at a fall film fest.  Don't discount that A Real Pain played Telluride nor should we ignore that Emma Stone, who we believe is a big fan of Telluride, is/was a producer for both films.  

All of this has altered the new Ten Bets from last week.  Which leads us back to...

Here's the complete story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/awards/focus-features-elsinore-andrew-scott-acquisition-1236801625/

And also from The Playlist.

https://theplaylist.net/halfway-to-oscars-2027-project-hail-mary-la-bola-negra-digger-andrew-scott-20260701/

BACK TO THE 4TH TEN BETS

Here's your latest Ten Bets for TFF #53...

Artificial

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Elsinore

Fatherland

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.

WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES

I MTFB's continuing look at common distributors of films that make the Telluride lineup we turn for Focus Features which, over the last five years, has been the fourth most ubiquitou distributor at TFF.  They've screened 11 films at The SHOW in that time:

2021: Belfast, The Card Counter.

2022: TAR, Armageddon Time.

2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders

2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece.

2025: Hamnet, Bugonia, Hamlet.

11 films, six of which were nominated for Best Picture.  That's an impressive list.  So going into TFF #53 you have to think Focus will have at least two films make the grade... Here's their most likely applicants:

(The newly acquired) Elsinore, Sense and Sensibility, Hope and The Uprising.

Chances for TFF #53:

Elsinore 70%

Sense and Sensibility 40%

Hope 25%

The Uprising 20%

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Ten Bets #4 for TFF #51 / Bits and Pieces / Another One Bites the Dust

TEN BETS #4 FOR TFF #51

There is a bit of movement in the Ten Bets this week.  One move is the result of Mark Cousin's winning the Crystal Globe, the top prize at the Karlovy Vary International Film Festival, last week.  Relatedly, I re-read the Indiewire article about that and discovered this line from its author, Anne Thompson:

"Word is, Sean Baker’s Palme d’Or winner “Anora” (Neon) may play exclusively at Telluride, which does not announce its slate in advance..."

 

Anne Thompson is an impeccable source so that tidbit is enough for me to move Anora up even more on the Ten Bets list.

Here's this week's Ten Bets for TFF #51:

1) Anora/Baker

2) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

3) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

4) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

5) Nickel Boys/Ross

6) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

7) Maria/Pablo Larrain

8) Conclave/Berger

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Bird/Arnold

Other possibilities:

The End/Oppenheimer

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975

All We Imagine as Light

Memoir of a Snail

ODDS AND ENDS

I've spent some time looking at the most common distributors who screen films at TFF.  To date that has included these distribs and their most likely films to be possible for Telluride:

A24: Parthenope, Babygirl, On Becoming a Guinea Fowl

NEON: Anora, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The End, The Actor

Searchlight: Solitary

Sony Pictures Classics: The Room Next Door, I'm Still Here, Marcel Pagnol

Focus Features: Conclave, Piece by Piece, Nosferatu

Netflix: Emilia Perez, The Piano Lesson, Untitled Noah Baumbach

Amazon/MGM: Nickel Boys, Hedda, Long Days' Journey Into Night, Unstoppable

Over the last five fests these seven distributors have been behind a number of films that have played each year.  Here's the total number of films from all seven combined from those years (leaving out the incomplete list from the Covid canceled 2020 fest):

2023: 19

2022: 17

2021: 16

2019: 16

2018: 15

So, you can see that if recent history is a guide, anywhere between 15-20 TFF #51 titles are from these peeps.

BUT...there are also distributors that are hit and miss with Telluride but with enough history to at least take a quick glance at what they might bring to The SHOW.  That group includes:

Cohen Media Group, Janus Films, Mubi, Apple, IFC Films, Magnolia, Kino Lorber and Bleecker Street.  Among those outfits, here's what I think might have a shot to be a TFF #51 selection:

Cohen Media Group: Black Tea

Janus Films: All We Imagine as Light, Caught by the Tides

Mubi: Bird, Grand Tour, Dahomey, The Substance, The Girl with the Needle

IFC Films: Memoir of a Snail

Magnolia: Ernest Cole: Lost and Found

Bleecker Street: Hard Truths, Rumours, The Return, The Wedding Banquet

I don't think we're likely to see anything from Apple (since Blitz is World Premiering in London) or Kino Lorber this year.

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST

On Tuesday the Toronto International Film Festival announced five more films that will World Premiere there.  Among them was John Crowley's We Live in Time which I had been listing as a TFF #51 possibility for some time.  The WP designation means that the film will not be making a stop in southwest Colorado over Labor Day weekend.

Other films announced by TIFF on Tuesday were Eden, Superboys of Malegaon, K-Pops and Shepherds.

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LATE BREAKING: SAG-AFTRA AUTHROIZES STRIKE / May December Not in September / MTFB's Ten Bets #4 / Ioncinema Predicts Venice

LATE BREAKING: SAG/AFTRA AUTHORIZES STRIKE

The National Board of SAG-AFTRA officially announced that the organization's members would be on strike at noon Pacific Time today.  The strike goes into effect at midnight (Pacific) tonight.

In addition to a shutdown of active film making those of us who pay attention to film festivals note that this action means that no SAG-AFTRA member will be allowed to promote projects in which they are involved.  How this affects fest like Telluride and others is not totally clear.  I have seen some speculation that some studios may be reluctant to send a film to a fest or feasts without the fire power of its stars being able to accompany a film.

Will news outlets shift the amount and intensity of their coverage with no talent to pursue?

Whatever happens it seems that the Fall Film Fests have a new wrinkle to deal with.

Roger Friedman of ShowBiz411.com provides some analysis about the potential effect of the strike on fall film fests including Telluride.

MAY DECEMBER NOT IN SEPTEMBER

The headline above is my faux-clever way of passing on that it appears that Todd Haynes' May December will NOT be playing at Telluride 2023. 

The New York Film Fest announced on Tuesday from the frequent TFF attendee, will North American Premiere as the Opening Night Film for NYFF.  The "North American Premiere" status tells us that the film will not have played anywhere in North America prior to its NYFF gig and that means no Telluride play.

Honestly, the last couple of weeks has really got me thinking that I don't have much of a grasp of what's going on this year.  

Haynes has been a frequent TFF presence but his films don't always play in the San Juans...just very, very often.

For example, his 2019 thriller, Dark Waters, also premiered at NYFF and did not play TFF but then you have to go all the way back to 1998's Velvet Underground to find a non-Telluride screening.  Haynes has bowed The Velvet Underground, Wonderstruck, Carol, I'm Not There and Far From Heaven all did play TFF.

Which leads to...

MTFB'S TEN BETS #4

As you might expect, with the above news about may December, the new "Ten Bets" has some changes.

Additionally, as a warning, next week (7/19) we get a big slew of announcements from Toronto that historically wrecks the "Bets".  Maybe I should re-think my hobbies...

Last week's Ten Bets were:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Now...with some chagrin, here's this week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell

4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh

5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet

8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak

10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

IONCINEMA PREDICTS VENICE

Ioncinema put together a three part list of 75 possibilities for the Venice Fest.  Some Venice films are very likely to subsequently play at Telluride.  From the Ioncinema lists, here's a guess about some of the films that might make the trans-Atlantic jump:

From Part One:

The Burial/Maggie Betts

Daaaaaali!/Quentin Dupieux

Drive-Away Dolls/Ethan Coen***

El Conde/Pablo Larrain

Fingernails/Christos Nikou

From Part Two:

The Captain/Matteo Garrone

Lee/Ellen Kuras

Love Lies Bleeding/Rose Glass

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

From Part Three:

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola***

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

**I'm actually fairly convinced that this film is going to play Toronto and play T-ride BUT, it's only one of two films that Ioncinema lists and specifically suggests that Telluride is a possibility.

***The other film that specifies that Telluride is a possibility

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