THE FULL FAC/THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE 2012 #2
For the first time since Sept. 20th I have put together a complete Film Awards Clearinghouse. If you've been reading the blog over the last 5 weeks or so, you've noticed that I have done weekly updates for Best Picture and then additional category updates have come in pairs every week. IE Update #1 was Best Picture and Director. #2 was Best Pic and the Lead Acting categories...etc. But today I have put together the bigger picture...all 10 of the categories that the FAC is monitoring as we continue the run up to the Academy Awards. As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates and this week I have included, were possible, the films original rank on the first full FAC in brackets. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT]
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
So here we go...
1) Argo (1) 
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) 
3) Lincoln (3) 
4) Life of Pi (6) *** 
5) Les Miserables (4) 
6) The Master (5) 
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) 
8) Amour (8) 
9) Hitchcock (9) [NEW]
10) Flight (11) 
11) Zero Dark Thirty (10) 
12) Django Unchained (12) 
13) The Sessions (14) 
14) Promised Land (15) 
15) Anna Karenina (New...sort of) *** 
Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom 
Comments: "Life of Pi" has become a serious player in this prediction model as more people have screened it and the latest TV trailer has begun running. The "Hitchcock" and "Promised Land" booms seem to have cooled somewhat. Again, I'm intrigued, but the trailers for both "Hitch" and "Promised Land" didn't make me immediately think "Best Picture Oscar" whereas the latest "Life of Pi" trailer did.
"Moonrise Kingdom", "The Sessions" and "Anna Karenina" continue to flirt with the bottom couple of spots.
"Argo", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings", The Master", "Life of Pi" and "Amour" were listed by all 9 experts.
1) Ben Affleck/Argo (2) (perfect score)
2) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (4) ***
3) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (7) ***
4) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (1) ###
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (5) ###
8) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (10) ***
9) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
10) Sacha Gervasi/Hitchcock (New) ***
Dropping Out: Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (9)
Comments: This chart may be a better reflection of the vagaries of the Best Picture race as it more clearly shows the heat for "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" and the reversal of fortune for "The Master" and "Amour".
Affleck did, in fact, achieve a perfect score...the top prediction in this category from the 8 experts that rank preferentially on their websites.
Others named by all 9 experts: Spielberg, Russell, Anderson, Haneke and Lee.
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) 
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2) 
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3) 
4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (5) 
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6) [N/L]
6) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (4)  ###
8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (NEW) [NEW] ***
9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (10) [N/L]
10) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (8)  ###
Dropping Out: Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Comments: The top of the Best Actress chart has been pretty stable...the bottom, not so much. Additionally, two of the experts still are listing Jessica Chastain in "Supporting" but it was announced at the end of the week that she will be campaigned for "Lead" for her role in "Zero Dark Thirty". So one could reasonably expect that she'll gain a bit more traction before the next Best Actress update in two weeks.
All nine experts listed Wallis, Lawrence (who had a perfect score on our last post for this category but missed it today by 1 point...Scott Feinberg moved her to #2 behind Wallis last week), Cotillard, Watts, Riva and Knightley.
1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1) 
2) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3) 
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (4) 
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2)  ###
5) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New) [N/L] ***
6) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5) 
7) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (8) 
8) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7) 
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New) [N/L] ***
10) Matt Damon/Promised Land (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained and Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson
Comments: John Hawkes' campaign has cooled a bit and Bill Murray's has fallen off the planet (and that's reasonable..."Hyde Park" just doesn't have much spark. Hopkins, and Damon both have benefited from the decision to put their respective films into play this year and Richard Gere has gotten some notice now that "Arbitrage" is in theaters.
Meanwhile, the race at the top between Phoenix and Day Lewis is about as close as its possible to be. They're separated by one point in my system. DDL is the top choice of 5 of the experts while Phoenix is top for 3 of them. Phoenix catches DDL because he's #2 on every preferential list where he's not listed #1. Day Lewis is not.
It will be interesting to see if Phoenix's comments about the uselessness of acting awards budges the feelings of theses experts in any way...whether they feel it will harm his Oscar shot or have no effect at all.
All nine predictors included: Day Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Hawkes, Cooper and Trintignant.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Amy Adams/The Master (2) 
2) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3) 
3) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)  ###
4) Sally Field/Lincoln (5) 
5) Maggie Smith/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (4) 
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (6) 
7) Scarlett Johannson/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
8) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (10) [N/L] ***
9) Kerry Washington/Django Unchained (8) 
10) Ann Dowd/Compliance (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (see above note).
Comments: Anne Hathaway's fall from #1 to #3 is attributable to her absence altogether in the latest listing from Awards Daily. Jacki Weaver benefits from the continued positive buzz building around "Silver Linings Playbook" and Ann Dowd, who has been getting some mention on the lower end of some experts predictions has finally generated enough heat to make the chart.
Receiving mention from all 9 experts: Amy Adams, Helen Hunt and Sally Field.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1) 
2) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (5) [N/L] ***
3) Alan Arkin/Argo (3) 
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (2)  ###
5) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (4) 
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (6) [N/L]
7) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) 
8) Matthew McConnaughey/Magic Mike (8) 
9) Ewan MacGregor/The Impossible (New) [N/L] ***
10) Bryan Cranston/Argo (New) [N/L] ***
Dropping Out: William H. Macy/The Sessions and David Stratharin/Lincoln
Comments: Nobody is hotter than Tommy Lee Jones right now. DiCaprio suffers some positioning because of Jones rise. And Bryan Cranston makes the list, along with Ewan MacGregor, for the first time. Cranston is one of my "Oscar Underground" picks this year. So the question naturally becomes...if he's on the list, can he really be an Oscar underdog? Ummm...yes, he can and is...
The remaining 4 categories were updated last week and so I have reprinted those results here
And so the Telluride # 39 presence right now looks like this in the Big Ten categories:
Argo: 6 nominations and 1 more possible.
Amour: 2 nominations and 3 more possible (I am classifying its current #8 ranking for Best Picture as a "possible" rather than a nomination)
Rust and Bone: 1 nomination.
That's all folks... 9 nominations and another 4 possible. It's the least Telluride-ish impact since I started doing this blog 4 years ago. That being said, there will still be some tech noms here and there...maybe...and certainly we'll see some of the TFF #39 playlist emerge on the Foreign Language final five as well as long form documentary but the simple truth is that Telluride will not be as big an influence on Oscar this year as it has been in the recent past. All that being said, there's still a really good chance that Best Picture and Best Director will come from Telluride in the form of wins in those two categories for Ben Affleck's "Argo".
Other notes...if these predictions were true and nominations were announced today the following would be true:
"Lincoln" and "The Master" would each have 8 nominations among the Big Ten categories and others could be expected in the "below the line" categories. It seems, at least for the moment, that that's where the competition is going to be for the film the earns the most nominations. I give the edge to "Lincoln".
Next is "Silver Linings Playbook" with 5 nominations and another 3 possibles.
"Les Miserables" is looking at 4 nominations with 5 more possibles.
"Beasts of the Southern Wild" is set for 3 nominations and has 5 more possibles.
"Life of Pi" also is looking at 3 nominations with another 2 possible.
Also with 3 nominations would be "The Sessions" with another one possible.
"Django Unchained" is at 2 nominations with 4 more possible and "Zero Dark Thirty" is set for 2 nominations with another 3 possible.
One nomination films that have a significant presence in the number of possible nominations that they might add are :
"Hitchcock" with5 more possible, and "Anna Karenina" with 3 more possible.
"Promised Land" currently has no nominations projected but does have 3 possibilities.
THE JOGGER AT KICKSTARTER
Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" is winding down filming in OKC but its Kickstarter campaign for additional post-production funds continues until Nov. 4th. Take a look here:
Drop 'em a buck or two...or more...
You hardly ever see this happen but it did this weekend. "Argo" won the Box Office for the first time since its release...that's in its third weekend...which is unheard of. Strong word of mouth and less than stellar performances from the new films that opened (including "Cloud Atlas") combined to give "Argo" the weekend. Maybe I mentioned "word of mouth" as a factor when it opened in 2nd place two weeks ago...
Here's the skinny:
OSCAR EXPERTS THIS WEEK...
OSCAR TALK (Thompson and Tapley)
A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG #8 (Scott Feinberg)
and...this week' FEINBERG FORECAST:
OSCAR PODCAST W/SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY
ODDS AND ENDS
***Two Clips from "Amour" via The Playlist:
IMDb's "Monuments Men" entry:
More on Thursday!
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