The FAC and The Gold Derby/Payne and Dern/Llewyn Davis News/Rudderless Stills/Oscar Talk/Oscar Podcast/Invisible Woman Visible

THE FAC AND THE GOLD DERBY ( AND A LITTLE BIT FROM THE GURUS OF GOLD)

 Here’s a comparative look at where the major Oscar categories are between The Film Awards Clearinghouse and The Gold Derby and in the case of Best Picture and Director, where they are ranked by Movie City News’ Gurus of Gold.

BEST PICTURE

FILM/FAC RANK/GOLD DERBY/GURUS OF GOLD

12 Years a Slave          (1)        (1)        (1)       

Gravity                         (2)        (2)        (2)       

Capt. Phillips                (3)        (4)        (3)       

Saving Mr. Banks         (4)        (5)        (4)       

American Hustle           (5)        (3)        (6)       

Nebraska                     (6)        (9)        (5)       

Inside Llewyn Davis      (7)        (8)        (7)       

The Wolf of Wall St.     (8)        (6)        (9)       

LD’s The Butler            (9)        (7)        (8)       

All is Lost                    (10)      (15)      (11)     

Her                             (11)      (13)      (10)     

August: Osage             (12)      (11)      (13)

Blue Jasmine               (13)      (12)      (12)

Dallas Buyers Club      (14)      (13)      (16)

Fruitvale Station          (15)      (10)      (15)

BEST DIRECTION

Cuaron/Gravity            (1)        (2)        (1)

McQueen/12 Years     (2)        (1)        (2)

Greengrass/Phillips       (3)        (4)        (3)

Russell/Hustle              (4)        (3)        (4)

Coens/Llewyn Davis    (5)        (7)        (6)

Payne/Nebraska          (6)        (6)        (5)

Hancock/Mr. Banks    (7)        (9)        (10)

Scorsese/Wolf             (8)        (5)        (8)

Chandor/Lost              (9)        (8)        (9)

Jonze/Her                    (10)      (11)      (7)

BEST ACTOR

Ejiofor/12 Years          (1)        (1)

Redford/Lost               (2)        (2)

McConnaughey/DBC   (3)        (3)

Hanks/Phillips              (4)        (4)

Dern/Nebraska            (5)        (5)

Whitaker/Butler            (6)        (6)

Bale/Hustle                   (7)        (11)

DiCaprio/Wolf             (8)        (10)

Isaac/Llewyn Davis      (9)        (12)

Jordan/Fruitvale           (10)      (7)

Gold Derby also has Phoenix and Elba in its Top Ten

BEST ACTRESS

Blanchett/Jasmine         (1)        (1)

Bullock/Gravity            (2)        (2)

Streep/August Osage   (3)        (5)

Thompson/Banks         (4)        (4)

Dench/Philomena         (5)        (3)

Adams/Hustle              (6)        (7)

Excharopolous/Blue     (7)        (6)

Delpy/Midnight            (8)        (12)

Winslet/Labor Day       (9)        (11)

Bejo/Past                     (10)      (10)

Gold Derby also has Larson and Louis-Dreyfuss in its Top Ten.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Fassbender/12 Years     (1)        (2)

Leto/DBC                     (2)        (1)

Hanks/Banks                 (3)        (3)

Addi/Phillips                  (4)        (4)

Bruhl/Rush                     (5)        (5)

Gandolfini/Enough          (6)        (6)

B. Cooper/Hustle          (7)        (10)

Hill/Wolf                       (8)        (14)

Goodman/Llewyn          (9)        (7)

Renner/Hustle               (10)      (13)

Gold Derby has Oyelowo and McConnaughey in its Top Ten.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Nyong’o/12 Years       (1)        (1)

WinfreyButler               (2)        (2)

Squibb/Nebraska         (3)        (4)

Roberts/August            (4)        (5)

Lawrence/Hustle          (5)        (7)

Martindale/August        (6)        (6)

Spencer/Fruitvale         (7)        (3)

Hawkins/Jasmine          (8)        (8)

Mulligan/Llewyn           (9)        (18)

Paulson/12 Years        (10)      (9)

Gold Derby also has Johansson in its Top Ten.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

12 Years                      (1)        (1)

Capt. Phillips                 (2)        (5)

Before Midnight            (3)        (2)

August: Osage              (4)        (4)

Philomena                     (5)        (7)

Wolf of Wall St.            (6)        (3)

Blue is Warmest            (7)        (10)

Labor Day                    (8)        (11)

Short Term 12               (9)        (NR)

Book Thief                   (10)      (8)

Gold Derby has Walter Mitty and Lone Survivor in its Top Ten.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Blue Jasmine                (1)        (2)

Inside Llewyn Davis     (2)        (3)

Nebraska                     (3)        (4)

American Hustle           (4)        (1)

Her                              (5)        (7)

Saving Mr. Banks         (6)        (8)

Gravity                         (7)        (5)

Fruitvale Station           (8)        (6)

The Butler                    (9)        (13)

Enough Said                (10)      (9)

Gold Derby has Dallas Buyers Club in its Top Ten.

PAYNE AND DERN

Alexander Payne told us in Telluride that there was a color version of "Nebraska".  Now he's telling The Dissolve the same thing and explaining why it exists:

http://thedissolve.com/news/972-theres-a-color-version-of-nebraska-alexander-payne/


And the Bruce Dern charm offensive continues.  Dern was interviewed this week by Awards Daily's (and friend of the blog) Sasha Stone:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/brucedern/


LLEWYN DAVIS NEWS

The Playlist posted a story that includes a new clip from the Coen Brothers' film as well as a trailer for the Showtime presentation of the concert "Another Day Another Time".  The concert will air on Showtime on Dec. 13.  Here's the post:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-inside-llewyn-davis-visits-the-record-label-in-new-clip-plus-trailer-for-showtime-concert-movie-with-cast-20131121


Additionally, The Wrap reports on its presentation of "Llewyn" as a part of its screening series and how Oscar Isaac came to be Llewyn Davis:

http://www.thewrap.com/inside-llewyn-davis-oscar-isaac-t-bone-burnett-coen-brothers


INVISIBLE WOMAN BECOMING VISIBLE

The Playlist has the U.K. trailer and a new poster for Ralph Fiennes' "The Invisible Woman" this week:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-new-uk-trailer-poster-for-ralph-fiennes-charles-dickens-drama-the-invisible-woman-20131120

RUDDERLESS STILLS

There were a couple of key stories this week about William H. Macy's Rudderless this week.  The film, written by Oklahomans (friend of the blog) Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison and  filmed in Oklahoma, was highlighted by a story about the first look at stills from the film and was also tipped as a hot prospect for The Sundance Film Festival by IndieWire.  Here are the links to those stories:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-pics-from-william-h-macys-rudderless-starring-anton-yelchin-selena-gomez-20131119

http://www.indiewire.com/article/sundance-wishlist-30-films-we-hope-will-head-to-park-city-in-2014


OSCAR TALK

HitFix/InContention's Kristopher Tapley and Thompson on Hollywood's Anne Thompson have posted their latest version of Oscar Talk.  Links to it on either of their sites are here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-afi-fest-out-of-the-furnace-lone-survivor-and-preparing-for-the-critics-awards

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-whos-ahead-in-the-oscar-race-post-afi-fest-and-the-governors-awards-documentaries-and-beyond

OSCAR PODCAST

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily also has her latest Oscar Podcast up:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/?p=2204


More on Thursday/Thanksgiving Day...which will be posted from Albuquerque, NM and the Rio Grande Arts and Craft Festival: Holiday Show.

The World Hears About TFF #40's Fifth Day (and its new theater)/Oscar Post-Mortems/

Good Monday morning to all of you...

THE WORLD LEARNS WHAT WE'VE KNOWN FOR A GOOD LONG WHILE

The Telluride Film Festival announced this past week that:

A) This year will be their 40th Anniversary.
B) That an extra day has been added to the schedule as a part of the anniversary celebration...it will start on Thursday, Aug. 29th this year.  We knew that as the festival head honchos told us at the opening day press gathering last September.
C) That there will be a new 650 seat theater venue...we've known that was in the works for awhile too.  It will be a re-modeled Hanley Pavilion in Telluride Town Park and will be named in honor of Telluride advisor-guest-presenter-guru-gadfly Werner Herzog.  (I saw one tweet this week suggesting the Theater be nicknamed "Der Werner".   I'm suggesting we call it "The Zog!").
D) Passes are now on sale for TFF #40.

The thing is, it was all officially announced this week and the film world took a good deal of notice.

Here's the press release from TFF and VP of Press Relations Shannon Goodwin Mitchell:

TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL ANNOUNCES ITS

40th ANNIVERSARY CELEBRATION

AND PASS SALE INFORMATION

New 650 Seat Werner Herzog Theatre to be Complete for 2013 Edition

Berkeley, CA – Telluride Film Festival, presented by the National Film Preserve, announces its 40^th Anniversary set to run August 29 – September 2, 2013. An additional day of festivities has been added to the usual four-day Festival, making room for a five-day bounty of special programming and festivities. The National Film Preserve is a not-for-profit arts and educational organization that annually presents the Telluride Film Festival.

Festival passes will be available for purchase beginning tomorrow, March 1, 2013. Festival passes may be purchased at www.telluridefilmfestival.org/passes. Pass levels and descriptions may also be found on the Festival’s website. Pricing will not increase given the additional day in 2013.

Telluride Film Festival, along with the Town of Telluride, is also pleased to announce it is creating a new venue in time for its 40^th Anniversary celebration. The Werner Herzog Theatre will be situated in Telluride’s Town Park Pavilion and become the Festival’s most technologically advanced theatre accommodating 650 pass holders. Telluride Film Festival is committed to present not only the best quality films but in the most state of the art manner. TFF is also committed to maximizing pass holder enjoyment, valuing its intimate, relaxed atmosphere and will not be expanding its 2013 pass holder base.

In keeping with Festival tradition, Telluride Film Festival does not announce its program in advance, though the 40th promises to be a grand reunion highlighting all the elements of the last forty years. During this special edition of the SHOW, the Festival is thrilled it will be able to showcase its technical excellence and provide its pass holders and sponsors the highest level of service while presenting the world’s greatest films and filmmakers.

“The 40th celebration is our chance to thank and honor the founders, filmmakers and audience who have helped us create such a beloved cultural institution,” said Telluride Film Festival Executive Director Julie Huntsinger. “We are inspired every day by the cinematic genius that surrounds us and look forward to sharing the best of that on this very special occasion.”

For more information about attending Telluride Film Festival, visit www.telluridefilmfestival.org.

About Telluride Film Festival

The prestigious Telluride Film Festival ranks among the world’s best film festivals and is an annual gathering for film industry insiders, cinema enthusiasts, filmmakers and critics. TFF is considered a major launching ground for the fall season’s most talked-about films. Co-founded in 1974 by Tom Luddy, James Card, and Bill and Stella Pence, Telluride Film Festival, presented in the beautiful mountain town of Telluride, Colorado, is a four-day international educational event celebrating the art of film. Telluride Film Festival’s long-standing commitment is to join filmmakers and film connoisseurs together to experience great cinema. The exciting schedule, kept secret until Opening Day, consists of over two dozen filmmakers presenting their newest works, special Guest Director programs, three major Tributes to guest artists, special events and remarkable treasures from the past. Telluride Film Festival is a 501 (c)(3) non-profit educational program. Festival headquarters are in Berkeley, CA.

About Our Sponsors

Telluride Film Festival is supported by Land Rover North America, Turner Classic Movies, Ernst & Young, Telluride Mountain Village Owners Association, Audible.com, Universal Studios, The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, Américas Film Conservancy, Pine Ridge Winery, Mandarin Oriental Hotel Group, UCLA School of Theater, Film and Television, Telluride Alpine Lodging, Meyer Sound, The London Hotel Group, ShopKeep POS, The Hollywood Reporter, Dolby, Crumpler, Boston Light and Sound, among others.

And here's some of the coverage that press release engendered:

Movie City News: http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/telluride-film-festival-announces-its-40th-anniversary-celebration/

Thompson on Hollywood: http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/telluride-film-festival-announces-40th-edition-august-29-september-2

IndieWire: http://www.indiewire.com/article/telluride-film-festival-40th-anniversary-edition-gets-a-few-changes

Awards Daily: http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/02/28/telluride-sets-date-40th-anniversary-celebration/

The Hollywood Reporter: http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/telluride-celebrates-40th-birthday-by-425265

Yahoo Movies: http://movies.yahoo.com/news/telluride-film-festival-sets-40th-anniversary-dates-010112248.html

Hollywood News: http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2013/03/01/40th-anniversary-of-the-telluride-film-festival-august-29-september-2-2013/

InContention.com: http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/telluride-announces-40th-anniversary-festival-celebration-and-creation-of-new-venue

OSCAR POST-MORTEMS

Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson dissect last week's Oscars on Oscar Talk:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-107-wrapping-up-the-85th-annual-academy-awards

Awards Daily's Sasha Stone does the same on her Oscar Podcast:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/oscarpodcast/2013/03/02/oscar-podcast-episode-21/

AND NOW...THE FIRST STAB IN THE DARK

The Hollywood Reporter posted its first spec piece about 2014 Oscar possibilities this week.  Yes, The body of the 85th Oscar ceremony was still warm.  Nevertheless, that's where I'll start with the speculation, analysis and guesswork for TFF #40.  The entire THR story is here:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/oscars-2014-early-best-picture-422483

But here's a quick rundown of the films that they include:

"August: Osage County"

"Captain Phillips"

"Foxcatcher"

"Fruitvale"

"Inside Llewyn Davis"

"Monuments Men"

"Nebraska"

"Saving Mr. Banks"

"Wolf of Wall Street"

So...what can I say about these 9 prospects?

Count on "Nebraska" being in Telluride.  Alexander Payne's new film with Bruce Dern and Will Forte will play.  Payne has become a T-ride regular after having guest directed and subsequently debuting "The Descendants" there.

Pic from "August: Osage County"

I suspect that there is at least some chance that we could see either (or both) "Monuments Men" and "August: Osage County".  That speculation is based in part on the George Clooney connection to both of those projects (producer on "August" and Producer-writer-director-actor on "Monuments").  Clooney was a tributee in 2011 and cannot have been displeased that "Argo", which he also co-produced, debuted at Telluride and went on to win Best Picture. Additionally, "August" is being distributed by The Weinstein Company which has had a presence at Telluride for some time including "The Sapphires", "Butter", "The Artist" and "The King's Speech".

Count "Foxcatcher" as a weak "Maybe".  It's directed by Bennett Miller and co-written by Dan Futterman who had great success with "Capote" at TFF in 2005.  So, that gives it a little shine...bur Bennett's last film "Moneyball" didn't play Telluride and "Foxcatcher's" distributor, Columbia, hasn't been a player at there.

Also in the incredibly weak "Maybe" column: "Wolf of Wall Street".  The Martin Scorsese directed film could conceivably show up because he's been there before and reportedly will have a Roger Ebert documentary, "Life Itself", that he executive produced playing as a part of the SHOW.  Here's that post from December:

http://wegotthiscovered.com/movies/martin-scorseses-roger-ebert-documentary-debut-2013/

Unlikely:  Both Tom Hanks projects: "Saving Mr. Banks" and "Captain Phillips" lack any real Telluride connections/characteristics.  

Also unlikely is the Coen Brothers new picture "Inside Llewyn Davis".  The Coen's are likely to be included in the Cannes lineup and that might be the only festival play for the film.  One quick note that does give a tiny ray of hope is that one of the films production companies is Scott Rudin Productions which has had an occasional presence in T-ride including "Frances Ha" last year as well  "Margot at the Wedding".  Though, admittedly, that's a Noah Baumbach connection more than a Scott Rudin connection.

And "Fruitvale" is off the table as it premiered at Sundance.

That's all for now...More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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The FAC: Big 8 Categories SIX DAYS OUT/Final Precurors; Writing and Editing/Oscar Matters

Good Monday morning!

THE FAC: BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES

Only six days left until Oscar season is over and if you're an observer who doesn't have a horse in the race, it has been a fascinating ride these past 5 1/2 months since the Telluride Film Festival's 39th edition came to an end.

Now we're to the end game.  Consequently, MTFB/FAC will post every day this week and include a final look at Oscar predictions next Sunday morning before the Oscar broadcast.  It's going to be a bumpy week.

Here's a start, a look at the Big 8 categories and where they stand after the number crunching using data from the published predictions of the following:


Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

     +BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (2)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Amour (6)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (7)
7) Les Miserables (5)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (9)

Comment:  The "Argo" trend is all but complete sweeping the predictors.  Looks like its Ben's to lose at this point.  And here's kind of an amazing note..."Amour" has steadily moved up the chart in the estimation of the prognosticators I check on to sit at #5.  Almost in a position for a case to be made that IT could be a spoiler although better cases can be made for "Lincoln", "Silver Linings" and "Life of Pi".

     +BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln(1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings (3)
4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)

Comment:  This thing has become a real horse race.  Spielberg maintains a small edge over Lee, but it's very small.  Also, Russell is in striking distance.

     +BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Denzel Washington/Flight (4)
5) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (5)

Comment:  If anyone else but Day Lewis wins this it will be one of the biggest "shocker" moments in Oscar history.

     +BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (2)
3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (3)
4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (5)
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (4)

Comment:  Lawrence has been the front runner for months.  She was seriously challenged by Jessica Chastain but that dynamic has faded.   Rather, Emanuelle Riva's stock has continued to rise over the last month and now she is a very close second and the trendy pick to win (she's the first choice of 3 of my Oscar specialists).  This category has become very tight.

     +BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
3) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
4) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4)
5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)

Comment:  This has also turned into a real dog fight.  Jones seemed to be unbeatable 6 weeks ago, but the race has evolved to the point that any of the top 4 men could win the honor and, frankly, I wouldn't be all that shocked if Arkin sneaked in to win on the strength of the "Argo" wave.

     +BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1)Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Sally Field/Lincoln (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Amy Adams/The Master (4)
5) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (5)

Comment:  If Hathaway doesn't win, it will also be one of the biggest Oscar "shockers' in a good long time.

     +BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)
2) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) David Magee/Life of Pi (4)
5) Lucy Alibar and Behn Zeitlin/Beasts (5)

Comment:  The "Argo" momentum has carried Terrio to the top of the chart with a fractional lead over Kushner (who has lead this category for months).  Keep in mind, I crunched the numbers for this morning's chart prior to Terrio winning the Writer's Guild award last night (see below).  It's a two horse race with Terrio the smallest of favorites now.

     +BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)
2) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (1)
3) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)
5) John Gatins/Flight (5)

Comment: Mark Boal (ZDT) won last night at the WGA but Haneke wasn't eligible for that nomination (neither was Tarantino).  So, this is a three horse race and pretty close as well.

So where does this put us with 6 days to Oscar?  "Argo" has won major awards from the following: PGA, DGA, WGA, SAG, ACE the Critic's Choice and Golden Globes.  It's going to win Best Picture on Sunday night and likely Best Editing.  It has a decent shot at Best Adapted Screenplay and I think still could get Best Original Score.  All told 3 or 4 Oscars.  The biggest total of wins on Sunday night may be "Life of Pi" which could end up winning 5-6 Oscars. There's a very real chance that "Lincoln" may go home without a single Oscar despite having the most nominations (12).

Ultimately, this is primarily a blog that focuses on Telluride films and as of this post, TFF #39 looks formidable.  Despite a year with a relatively modest nomination total, The SHOW could end up with as many as 9 Oscars at the end of the night awarded to films that played this year (Think: "Argo" 4-Picture, Adapted Script, Score and Editing, "Amour" 3-Foreign Language, Original Screenplay and Actress and wins for "Paperman" and "Asad" in the shorts categories).

FINAL PRECURSORS: WRITERS AND EDITORS

The Writer's Guild of America awarded their top prizes for the year last night and as mentioned above TFF #39 Sneak Preview "Argo" was awarded for Best Adapted Screenplay.  "Zero Dark Thirty" won for Original Screenplay.  Hers' the report filed by USA Today:

http://www.usatoday.com/story/life/movies/2013/02/18/writers-guild-awards/1927303/

And on Saturday the American Cinema Editors awarded top honors to "Argo" "Silver Linings Playbook" and "Brave".  Here's the story from The Playbook.

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/argo-silver-linings-playbook-take-top-editing-prizes-at-ace-eddie-awards-20130217


OSCAR MATTERS

As mentioned above, we're down to the nub on all matters Oscar related and the pundits are weighing in:

     +OSCAR TALK (with Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson):

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-106-bafta-and-scripter-recap-wga-preview-and-more-shorts

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-shorts-and-documentary-baftas-and-scripters-spielberg-vs-lee-lawrence-vs-riva-and-more

     +A FEW MINUTES WITH SCOTT FEINBERG (The Hollywood Reporter's awards analyst Scott Feinberg talks the latest Oscar news):

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-predictions-dark-horses-421824


     +GOLD DERBY OSCAR PODCAST (withe Tom O'Neil and Sasha Stone)

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/e/b/4/eb4c219213257bed/Oscars_Sasha_Stone_3.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01ce8636d2c855fcd9&c_id=5407360

     +GURUS OF GOLD (the latest look at a number of Oscar categories from The Move City News poll of Oscarologists):

http://moviecitynews.com/2013/02/gurus-o-gold-9-days-from-the-big-show/

More TOMORROW!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

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New FAC for the Big Six/Directors Say "Argo"/Oscar Talk/Gatekeepers

Good Morning on a Monday!

Less that three weeks until the Oscar race comes to an end...and it continues to evolve... in some categories.  Ben Affleck's win for direction from the DGA (see below) continues "Argo's" return to the top of the Best Picture chart.



NEW FAC FOR THE BIG SIX


The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.


     +BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (2)
2) Lincoln (1)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (6)
7) Amour (9)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (7)

Comment:  The "Argo" climb is complete as it returns to the number one spot on the FAC chart.  Our numbers say it's a whisper thin lead over "Lincoln" but these numbers were crunched prior to the DGA award presentation to Affleck on Saturday night.

That means that "Argo" has swept the big precursor awards straight through with only the Writer's Guild and the BAFTA (British Oscars) awards left before Oscar Sunday on Feb. 24.

My expectation is that when I check in again next Monday "Argo" will have opened a bit of breathing space between itself and "Lincoln".  It definitely has momentum at the moment.  But keep in mind that Oscar voting doesn't actually open up until Friday.  Things could still turn.

This all reminds me a little bit of the 2012 Republican primary...in that there has been a fairly constant change about which film (or candidate) has the frontrunner status.  For the GOP, it was all about which candidate rose up to challenge and lead (even if for a small period) Mitt Romney.  Remember that Bachman, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum and Perry all had the Big Mo at some point...yet, at the end, it was Mitt.  Similarly, at various points the Oscar favorite has appeared to be "Argo", "Les Miz", "Zero Dark Thirty", Silver Linings' and "Lincoln".  Now we've come back to "Argo"...and the question is "Is "Argo" Mitt?  or could it still be "Lincoln"?

Suffice it to say that there's till enough time for an "Argo" stumble/collapse/backlash (another one, that is).  For the moment, with less than 3 weeks left until the opening of the envelope, "Argo" seems to have reclaimed the favorite's mantle, and seems the most likely to actually hang onto it until Feb. 24th.

At the bottom of the stack, there has been a little increase in love for Michael Haneke's "Amour".  Not enough to make it a player...but still...a nudge upward...perhaps actually portending a shot at Best Original Screenplay that's more realistic.

     +BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts (4)

Comment:  The Spielberg lead continues to be solid though it will be interesting to see if there's any erosion in that perception as a result of the Affleck/DGA win.

     +BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (3)
3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (4)
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (5)

Comment:  Lawrence's lead has grown a bit and a race that at one point seemed like a throw down between her and Chastain has melted away.  Chastain could still be in play, but as of this number crunching, the biggest challenge may actually come from Emanuelle Riva who is gaining ground and has squeaked past Chastain on the FAC chart.

     + BEST ACTOR
1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings (3)
4) Denzel Washington/Flight (4)
5) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (5)

Comment:  OK...you can say it now.  If anyone wins this but Day Lewis, it will rank as one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history.

     +BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Sally Filed/Lincoln (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Amy Adams/The Master (4)
5) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings (5)

Comment: The FAC says that Hathaway is as prohibitive a favorite as DDL is for Best Actor, but I'm not quite as convinced.  I think Sally Field might still have a shot here.

     +BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (2)
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1)
3) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4)
4) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings (3)
5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)

Comment: The category that continues to be the most unpredictable, mercurial and fun.  Jones does a pretty substantial jump from #2 to #1...but PSH, DeNiro and Waltz are all in striking distance.  The only thing that our predictors agree on is that Arkin is the odd man out.


DGA SAYS "ARGO"

The Directors Guild of America named Ben Affleck the recipient of its highest honor for feature film making on Saturday night for his direction of "Argo" despite the lack of a Best Directing Oscar nomination from  The Academy.

The award continued a string of Guild and other major precursor/awards success (Critics Circle/Golden Globe, PGA, SAG) for the thriller that dramatizes the unlikely story of how six Americans were spirited our of Iran at the height of the 1979-80 hostage crisis.

The award also will end up making some sort of Oscar history since Affleck is not Oscar nominated for direction.  Check out the links below for the details as to how unusual this year has been and is:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/ben-affleck-lena-dunham-rian-johnson-win-directors-guild-awards

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/why-ben-afflecks-argo-win-417656

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/02/03/the-state-of-the-race-the-winners-circle/#more-61071



OSCAR TALK

Kris Tapley and Anne Thompson talk Oscar...

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-argo-vs-lincoln-pga-sag-and-dga


THE GATEKEEPERS OPENING

SPC continues its roll out for the documentary "The Gatekeepers" with pieces from Thompson on Hollywood and The Wall Street Journal:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/dror-moreh-q-a-the-gatekeepers-pops-the-lid-off-israeli-arab-conflict


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323701904578275563434110222.html


More on Thursday...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

The Full FAC #2/The Jogger at Kickstarter/Argo's BO/Oscar Experts/Odds and Ends/Coming Attractions: The Monuments Men

Good  Monday to All!

THE FULL FAC/THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE 2012 #2

For the first time since Sept. 20th I have put together a complete Film Awards Clearinghouse.  If you've been reading the blog over the last 5 weeks or so, you've noticed that I have done weekly updates for Best Picture and then additional category updates have come in pairs every week.  IE Update #1 was Best Picture and Director.  #2 was Best Pic and the Lead Acting categories...etc.  But today I have put together the bigger picture...all 10 of the categories that the FAC is monitoring as we continue the run up to the Academy Awards.  As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates and this week I have included, were possible, the films original rank on the first full FAC in brackets. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT]

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery


So here we go...

BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1) [1]
2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) [2]
3) Lincoln (3) [3]
4) Life of Pi (6) *** [8]
5) Les Miserables (4) [6]
6) The Master (5) [4]
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [5]
8) Amour (8) [7]
9) Hitchcock (9) [NEW]
10) Flight (11) [13]
11) Zero Dark Thirty (10) [9]
12) Django Unchained (12) [10]
13) The Sessions (14) [14]
14) Promised Land (15) [11]
15) Anna Karenina (New...sort of) *** [15]

Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom [12]

Comments:  "Life of Pi" has become a serious player in this prediction model as more people have screened it and the latest TV trailer has begun running.  The "Hitchcock" and "Promised Land" booms seem to have cooled somewhat.  Again, I'm intrigued, but  the trailers for both "Hitch" and "Promised Land" didn't make me immediately think "Best Picture Oscar" whereas the latest "Life of Pi" trailer did.

"Moonrise Kingdom", "The Sessions" and "Anna Karenina" continue to flirt with the bottom couple of spots.

"Argo", "Lincoln", "Silver Linings", The Master", "Life of Pi" and "Amour" were listed by all 9 experts.


BEST DIRECTION

1) Ben Affleck/Argo (2) (perfect score)
2) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (4) ***
3) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (7) ***
4) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (1) ###
6) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (5) ###
8) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (10) ***
9) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
10) Sacha Gervasi/Hitchcock (New) ***

Dropping Out: Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (9)

Comments: This chart may be a better reflection of the vagaries of the Best Picture race as it more clearly shows the heat for "Lincoln" and "Life of Pi" and the reversal of fortune for "The Master" and "Amour".

Affleck did, in fact, achieve a perfect score...the top prediction in this category from the 8 experts that rank preferentially on their websites.

Others named by all 9 experts: Spielberg, Russell, Anderson, Haneke and Lee.



BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1) [1]
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2) [2]
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3) [4]
4) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (5) [6]
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6) [N/L]
6) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (4) [5] ###
8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (NEW) [NEW] ***
9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (10) [N/L]
10) Meryl Streep/Hope Springs (8) [7] ###

Dropping Out: Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Comments: The top of the Best Actress chart has been pretty stable...the bottom, not so much.  Additionally, two of the experts still are listing Jessica Chastain in "Supporting" but it was announced at the end of the week that she will be campaigned for "Lead" for her role in "Zero Dark Thirty".  So one could reasonably expect that she'll gain a bit more traction before the next Best Actress update in two weeks.

All nine experts listed Wallis, Lawrence (who had a perfect score on our last post for this category but missed it today by 1 point...Scott Feinberg moved her to #2 behind Wallis last week), Cotillard, Watts, Riva and Knightley.


BEST ACTOR

1) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1) [1]
2) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (3) [3]
3) Denzel Washington/Flight (4) [4]
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (2) [2] ###
5) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (New) [N/L] ***
6) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5) [5]
7) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (8) [6]
8) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7) [7]
9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (New) [N/L] ***
10) Matt Damon/Promised Land (New) [N/L] ***

Dropping Out: Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained and Bill Murray/Hyde Park on Hudson

Comments: John Hawkes' campaign has cooled a bit and Bill Murray's has fallen off the planet (and that's reasonable..."Hyde Park" just doesn't have much spark.  Hopkins, and Damon both have benefited from the decision to put their respective films into play this year and Richard Gere has gotten some notice now that "Arbitrage" is in theaters.

Meanwhile, the race at the top between Phoenix and Day Lewis is about as close as its possible to be.  They're separated by one point in my system.  DDL is the top choice of 5 of the experts while Phoenix is top for 3 of them.  Phoenix catches DDL because he's #2 on every preferential list where he's not listed #1.  Day Lewis is not.

It will be interesting to see if Phoenix's comments about the uselessness of acting awards budges the feelings of theses experts in any way...whether they feel it will harm his Oscar shot or have no effect at all.

All nine predictors included: Day Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Hawkes, Cooper and  Trintignant.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Amy Adams/The Master (2) [2]
2) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3) [3]
3) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1) [1] ###
4) Sally Field/Lincoln (5) [4]
5) Maggie Smith/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (4) [5]
6) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (6) [6]
7) Scarlett Johannson/Hitchcock (7) [N/L]
8) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (10) [N/L] ***
9) Kerry Washington/Django Unchained (8) [7]
10) Ann Dowd/Compliance (New) [N/L] ***

Dropping Out: Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (see above note).

Comments:  Anne Hathaway's fall from #1 to #3 is attributable to her absence altogether in the latest listing from Awards Daily.  Jacki Weaver benefits from the continued positive buzz building around "Silver Linings Playbook" and Ann Dowd, who has been getting some mention on the lower end of some experts predictions has finally generated enough heat to make the chart.

Receiving mention from all 9 experts: Amy Adams, Helen Hunt and Sally Field.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1) [2]
2) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (5) [N/L] ***
3) Alan Arkin/Argo (3) [3]
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (2) [1] ###
5) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (4) [8]
6) Russell Crowe/Les Miserables (6) [N/L]
7) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (7) [4]
8) Matthew McConnaughey/Magic Mike (8) [6]
9) Ewan MacGregor/The Impossible (New) [N/L] ***
10) Bryan Cranston/Argo (New) [N/L] ***

Dropping Out: William H. Macy/The Sessions and David Stratharin/Lincoln

Comments: Nobody is hotter than Tommy Lee Jones right now.  DiCaprio suffers some positioning because of Jones rise.  And Bryan Cranston makes the list, along with Ewan MacGregor, for the first time.  Cranston  is one of my "Oscar Underground" picks this year.  So the question naturally becomes...if he's on the list, can he really be an Oscar underdog?  Ummm...yes, he can and is...

The remaining 4 categories were updated last week and so I have reprinted those results here

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Argo (1) 

2) Silver Linings Playbook (2) 

3) Lincoln (4) 

4) Beasts of the Southern Wild (3) 

5) The Sessions (8)+++

6) Life of Pi (5) 

7) Les Miserables (6)

8) Anna Karenina (7)

9) On the Road (New)***

10) Hitchcock (New)***

Out: The Dark Knight Rises, Killing Them Softly

+++ The Sessions is still receiving some votes in the "Original" screenplay category.  I believe it will be a player in the "Adapted" category.  So, for the time being, those votes are counted in the "Adapted" category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Master (2)

2) Moonrise Kingdom (1)

3) Amour (4)

4) Django Unchained (3)

5) Zero Dark Thirty (5)

6) Promised Land (6)

7) Looper (New)***

8) Flight (8)

9) Seven Psychopaths (9)

10) Arbitrage (New)***

Out: Frances Ha

Comment: A lot of love for "Looper" since its release.  Personally, I'm not nearly as enamored of it as many are.  

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Life of Pi (2)

2) The Master (1)

3) Lincoln (3)

4) Anna Karenina (6)***

5) Les Miserables (8)***

6) Django Unchained (7)

7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)###

8) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###

9) Cloud Atlas (9)

10) Skyfall (New)

Out: The Hobbit

BEST FILM EDITING

1) Argo (1)

2) Lincoln (2)

3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)

4) Les Miserables (7)***

5) The Master (3)###

6) Life of Pi (6)

7) The Dark Knight Rises (5)###

8) Silver Linings Playbook (9)

9) Django Unchained (8)

10) Beasts of the Southern Wild (10)

No Drop Outs

And so the Telluride # 39 presence right now looks like this in the Big Ten categories:

Argo: 6 nominations and 1 more possible.
Amour: 2 nominations and 3 more possible (I am classifying its current #8 ranking for Best Picture as a "possible" rather than a nomination)
Rust and Bone: 1 nomination.

That's all folks... 9 nominations and another 4 possible.  It's the least Telluride-ish impact since I started doing this blog 4 years ago.  That being said, there will still be some tech noms here and there...maybe...and certainly we'll see some of the TFF #39 playlist emerge on the Foreign Language final five as well as long form documentary but the simple truth is that Telluride will not be as big an influence on Oscar this year as it has been in the recent past.  All that being said, there's still a really good chance that Best Picture and Best Director will come from Telluride in the form of wins in those two categories for Ben Affleck's "Argo".

Other notes...if these predictions were true and nominations were announced today the following would be true:

"Lincoln" and "The Master" would each have 8 nominations among the Big Ten categories and others could be expected in the "below the line" categories.  It seems, at least for the moment, that that's where the competition is going to be for the film the earns the most nominations.  I give the edge to "Lincoln".

Next is "Silver Linings Playbook" with 5 nominations and another 3 possibles.

"Les Miserables" is looking at 4 nominations with 5 more possibles.

"Beasts of the Southern Wild" is set for 3 nominations and has 5 more possibles.

"Life of Pi" also is looking at 3 nominations with another 2 possible.

Also with 3 nominations would be "The Sessions" with another one possible.

"Django Unchained" is at 2 nominations with 4 more possible and "Zero Dark Thirty" is set for 2 nominations with another 3 possible.

One nomination films that have a significant presence in the number of possible nominations that they might add are :

"Hitchcock" with5 more possible, and "Anna Karenina" with 3 more possible.

"Promised Land" currently has no nominations projected but does have 3 possibilities.



THE JOGGER AT KICKSTARTER

Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison's "The Jogger" is winding down filming in OKC but its Kickstarter campaign for additional post-production funds continues until Nov. 4th.  Take a look here:

http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/1277883372/the-jogger

Drop 'em a buck or two...or more...


ARGO'S B.O.

You hardly ever see this happen but it did this weekend.  "Argo" won the Box Office for the first time since its release...that's in its third weekend...which is unheard of.  Strong word of mouth and less than stellar performances from the new films that opened (including "Cloud Atlas") combined to give "Argo" the weekend.  Maybe I mentioned "word of mouth" as a factor when it opened in 2nd place two weeks ago...

Here's the skinny:

http://www.variety.com/article/VR1118061339.html?cmpid=RSS|News|FilmNews

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/box-office-report-four-new-383820

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/weekend-box-office-argo-takes-top-slot-as-new-releases-crash-burn-20121028


OSCAR EXPERTS THIS WEEK...

OSCAR TALK (Thompson and Tapley)

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-cloud-atlas-argo-the-master-lincoln-momentum-screenwriting-looper-vs-avengers-doc-race-changes

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-93-cloud-atlas-opens-as-the-wachowskis-make-the-rare-press-rounds

A FEW MINUTES WITH FEINBERG #8 (Scott Feinberg)

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/a-few-minutes-feinberg-juggling-383552

and...this week' FEINBERG FORECAST:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/argo-lincoln-oscar-predictions-382028

OSCAR PODCAST W/SASHA STONE/AWARDS DAILY

http://www.awardsdaily.com/podcasts/oscarpodcast/episode5.mp3

ODDS AND ENDS

***Two Clips from "Amour" via The Playlist:
http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-2-clips-from-michael-hanekes-palme-dor-winning-amour-20121026

***Scott Feinberg talks to director Dror Moreh about his documentary "The Gatekeepers":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/gatekeepers-director-dror-moreh-talks-383662

***The New York Times editorializes about "The Central Park Five":

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/10/28/opinion/sunday/when-mass-hysteria-convicted-5-teenagers.html

***Tributee Mads Mikkelsen's next gig is NBC's "Hannibal" as in Hanibal Lecter from "Silence of the Lambs.  The Playlist posts this story:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/first-look-at-mads-mikkelsen-as-hannibal-lecter-in-nbcs-hannibal-20121025

COMING ATTRACTIONS: MONUMENTS MEN

George Clooney's next directing gig?  Bill Murray in it?  Maybe also "The Artist's" Jean Dujardin?  Sounds like a lot of Telluride connectivity in all of that and it could all be true asClooney prepares "The Monuments Men" a drama centered on the attempt to save art from Hitler's wrath in WWII.  Clooney is listed by IMDb as writer, producer and actor.  No one is yet listed as director.

Here's some coverage of the early moves toward making this film:

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/column-post/jean-dujardin-possible-monuments-men-exclusive-58821

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/jean-dujardin-cate-blanchett-paul-giamatti-sought-for-george-clooneys-the-monuments-men-20121002

http://www.anomalousmaterial.com/movies/2012/10/george-clooney-wants-jean-dujardin-cate-blanchett-paul-giamatti-for-wwii-pic-the-monuments-men/

http://www.thewrap.com/movies/article/fox-split-george-clooney-drama-monuments-men-sony-62086

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/fox-finds-george-clooneys-monuments-men-while-legendary-drops-tom-cruises-kill-but-paramount-picks-adam-20121025

IMDb's "Monuments Men" entry:
http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2177771/



More on Thursday!

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