Cannes will announce its line up in just under three weeks and some spec pieces have begun to appear as to what might be expected to play as part of that festival. This allows us to speculate about the likelihood of those guesses insofar as Telluride's 38th edition is concerned.
I'm specifically looking at articles from Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon (http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/article/45-potential-titles-rumored-for-the-2011-cannes-film-festival) and Mike Goodridge at Screen Daily (http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/fremaux-faces-a-list-deluge-in-countdown-to-cannes/5025131.article).
Here's what we know: Woody Allen's "Midnight in Paris"is the only confirmed film at this time for Cannes.
Now the rest is guesswork...
Interestingly there is some discord between the two articles about the availability and/or likelihood that Pedro Almodovar's new film "The Skin I Live In" will or won't play Cannes. Brevet seems to think it's a likely prospect. Goodridge claims that Almodovar won't play Cannes this year because of the Spanish premiere date on Sept. 2 and the reported twists in the film that he doesn't want out of the bag in May.
I can see Almodovar preeming it on Sept. 2 and then it being a "sneak" at Telluride.
Alexander Payne's "The Descendants" is pegged as a likely Cannes film and that would just check off another box on the "factors that lead to a Telluride slot" checklist.
Also tipped as likely Cannes films that I have previously speculated to be Telluride-likely: Eran Kolirin's "The Exchange" and Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud's "Chicken with Plums."
A few Cannes guesses that I'm getting a Telluride vibe for are Paolo Sorrentino"s Sean Penn starrer "This Must Be the Place," "Free Men" starring "The Prophet's" Tahir Rahim and Lynne Ramsey's "We Need to Talk About Kevin."
And it seems that everyone is certain the David Cronenberg's "A Dangerous Method" with Viggo Mortensen and Michael Fassbender and Andrea Arnold's "Wuthering Heights" will not be ready for Cannes, but could and probably will be ready for the fall festival triad of Telluride, Toronto and Venice.
We'll know more in the next three weeks!