FAC Update/Oscarologists/Royal Treatment/This and That/New Theater News

Good Monday to All...hope it was a good weekend...

FAC UPDATE: PICTURE, ACTRESS, ACTOR

Here's this week's updated look at some of the major categories in contention for Oscar glory.


The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

 As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].

BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (1)
2) Lincoln (3)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (2)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) The Master (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Amour (8)
9) Flight (10)
10) Zero Dark Thirty (11)
11) Moonrise Kingdom (13)***
12) Django Unchained (12)
13) Hitchcock (9)###
14) The Sessions (14)
15) The Impossible (New)***

Dropping Out (again): Promised Land

Comments: Moonrise Kingdom continues its two week rise up the chart.  As I said last week, I think that's because people have been reminded of it due to its DVD/VOD release.  "Lincoln" is getting a little lift as it gets more exposure via screenings and a limited opening this past weekend.  It opens across the country on Friday.  Will that be enough of a boost to catch "Argo"?  Doubtful, but it could/should close the gap a bit.  "The Impossible" is this week's new addition at the bottom of the chart.  It, along with "Anna Karenina", "Promised Land" and "The Sessions" have danced around that spot for a good long time.

"Hitchcock" has lost some steam. The "buzz" seems to be coalescing around the notion that Hopkins and Mirren are serious contenders for acting nominations but that the Sacha Gervasi film has an uphill climb for a Best Picture nomination.


BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Quevenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (2)
3) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (4)
4) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3)
5) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (6)
6) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (5)
7) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (7)

8) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (8)

9) Mary Elizabeth Winstead/Smashed (9)

10) Judi Dench/Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New-ish)

Dropping Out:  Meryl Streep/Hope Springs

Comments:  Not a lot of movement the last two weeks since my latest update for this category.  I was surprised that Jessica Chastain didn't pick up some momentum as all the predictors had her appropriately in this category rather than Best Supporting Actress...but that didn't happen.  She stayed right at #8.

BEST ACTOR

1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (2)

2) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (1)

3) John Hawkes /The Sessions (4)

4) Denzel Washington/Flight (3)

5) Anthony Hopkins (5)

6) Bradley Cooper (6)

7) Hugh Jackman (7)

8) Jean Louis Tritignant/Amour (8)

9) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (9)

10) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (New)***

Dropping Out: Matt Damon/Promised Land

Comments: Also not a lot of movement in this category either.  It is, perhaps, significant that Day Lewis and Phoenix have traded spots at the top which may reflect "Lincoln's" momentum as well as some reaction to Phoenix's recent disparagement of the awards process and Oscar.  Though more recent reports indicate that Phoenix may have walked back his criticism...

Also, Jamie Foxx cracks the top ten and Christoph Waltz (of "Django Unchained")got some votes after it was announced this week that "Lead Actor" would be the category that The Weinstein Company would campaign him in.  It's widely believed that TWC made the decision to clear the path for a possible Supporting nomination for Leonardo DiCaprio's role in the same film.

Next Monday I'll update Best Picture and the Supporting Acting categories.

OSCAROLOGISTS

     OSCAR TALK (Tapley and Thompson):

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/oscar-talk-ep-95-everyones-predicting-lincoln-and-skyfall-land

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/oscar-talk-lincoln-premiere-dissecting-gurus-o-gold-cinematography

     OSCAR POKER (Jeff Wells):

http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/11/return_of_kenny.php

     OSCAR PREDICTIONS (Tom O'Neil):

http://ec.libsyn.com/p/9/8/c/98cc572d76a546ce/imdb_2_1.mp3?d13a76d516d9dec20c3d276ce028ed5089ab1ce3dae902ea1d01cd8530d3ce5eb4f6&c_id=5131562

     NEW FEINBERG FORECAST:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/lincoln-les-miserables-silver-linings-386582




ROYAL TREATMENT

Director Nikolaj Arcel's "A Royal Affair" that showed at this year's SHOW as part of the Mads Mikkelsen tribute (along with his Cannes Best Actor winning turn in "The Hunt") has been awarded the audience prize from its appearance at the AFI (American Film Institute) Fest.  "A Royal Affair" is Denmark;s entry for the Foreign Language Oscar and stars Alicia Vikander alongside Mikkelsen.  "A Royal Affair" focuses on an illicit love affair that leads to revolution...

As a result of its award it showed up in  a number of posts/stories this week:

http://www.hitfix.com/awards-campaign/discover-the-next-big-thing-alicia-vikander-of-a-royal-affair-and-anna-karenina

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/roundup-oscar-hopeful-a-royal-affair-wins-big-at-afi-fest#W0g5k3QEdvj2qjfb.99

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/denmarks-a-royal-affair-takes-387899

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/11/the-gronvall-files-a-royal-affair-to-remember-with-filmmaker-nikolaj-arcel/

http://www.sfgate.com/movies/article/Mads-Mikkelsen-raises-profile-with-film-TV-roles-4023608.php

"A Royal Affair's" IMDb entry is here:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1276419/


THIS AND THAT: VARIOUS POSTS

Taking a look at posts from here and there about other TFF #39 films that appeared around the web this week.

     ARGO

http://thegardenisland.com/entertainment/night-life/argo-believe-the-hype/article_244d68ec-2bb6-11e2-b780-001a4bcf887a.html

http://www.latimes.com/entertainment/envelope/goldstandard/la-et-mn-oscar-8ball-argo-ben-affleck-20121108,0,4778557.story


     AMOUR

Amour has a new U.S. trailer...

http://www.firstshowing.net/2012/watch-trailer-for-michael-hanekes-cannes-palme-dor-winner-amour/


     PAPERMAN

The short from Disney makes the final cut to 10 as does another TFF #39 short "Tram":

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/disneys-paperman-10-short-animated-388199


     LOVE, MARILYN

The Hollywood Reporter interviews one of the standouts from the Liz Garbus documentary:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/amy-greene-love-marilyn-385836


     RUST AND BONE

Sony Pictures Classics has added new stills from the Jacques Audiard film to its Facebook page:

http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.139236132888135.39961.139234772888271&type=3


NEW THEATER NEWS

A few weeks back, I (think) I broke the story that the Telluride Film Festival was desirous of a new theater and had offered to aid in the project to enclose and update the Haney Pavilion in Town Park as a means to that end.  My understanding is that the TFF folks would like it to be ready for TFF #40.

The Telluride Daily Planet posted an update on that process this week:


http://www.telluridenews.com/articles/2012/11/11/news/doc509ff41250c2e575274148.txt

More on Thursday...have a good week!

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like: Michael's Telluride Film Blog/The Film Awards Clearinghouse on Facebook.

Reminder/Ten Bets/Master/Sessions/Late Breaking/Questions

Good Monday to Everyone...It's Telluride #39 week!  First film in 4 more days...Transport leaves the dock in 3!

REMINDER

If you're reading this blog remember that you're invited to a blog-centric wing ding on Friday at 5:00 pm at The River Club at 550 Depot in Telluride.  We'll get together and talk a little, visit, schmooze...have a little vino and maybe a nibble...It's the Second Annual(?) Guide to the 'Ride; Flow of the SHOW so we might also mention this film festival that's about to happen.


TEN BETS

Some changes this week...because I think I've tuned into some pretty reliable information...

Last week's "Ten Bets":


This week's "Ten Bets":

1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) Amour
5) No
6) The Iceman
7) The Central Park Five
8) Bromberg's Chaplin
9) On the Road
10) Beyond the Hills


This week's "Ten Bets"  (and maybe my last "Ten Bets" post before the festival kicks off on Friday...though I might do updates as this week progresses...depends what I turn up).

1) Rust and Bone
2) Hyde Park on Hudson
3) Midnight's Children
4) The Central Park Five
5) Frances Ha
6) Ginger and Rosa
7) No
8) The Iceman
9) Bromberg's Chaplin
10) Amour


"On the Road" and "Beyond the Hills" fall off the "Ten Bets" into the 30+ that could play category.  They'd be in the "Ten More Bets section...which..OK...here it is (though I told myself I wasn't going to do "Ten More Bets" this year)

Ten More Bets

11) Argo
12) Rainy Day Tales
13) Something in the Air
14) The Sapphires
15) Beyond the Hills
16) Song for Marion
17) Ernest and Celestine
18) To the Wonder (I know I'm crazy to put the Malick here...but some smart peeps think it's possible)
19) The Hunt
20) Hannah Arendt

PS...looks like Jeff Wells is pretty sure about Brain DePalma's "Passion":
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/08/kabuki_mask.php

THE MASTER

You all know that this is my "Great white whale" for this year's "serious" movie season and if you read this blog much, you also know that I've been hoping that it would somehow make an appearance this week in the San Juans.  Further, you know that I don't really think that there's much of a chance that is likely to happen.  Nevertheless, hope springs...

So here's a nifty analytical piece from Move City News' David Poland..who makes a good point...a lot has been written, but not very much actual critique...aversion to spoilers, perhaps?  read Poland's piece...see what you think:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/08/whos-afraid-of-the-big-good-master/


THE SESSIONS

#2 on my list of films that I have been hoping would be programmed is Ben Lewin's "The Sessions".  It also isn't a likely pick as it premiered at Sundance.  But, you know, maybe...

It stars John Hawkes, Helen Hunt and William H. Macy...all of whom have gotten some Oscar buzz.  It's distributor Fox Searchlight started to turn up the heat for it this last week in prep for its announced screening in Toronto.  Look at these posts from Fox Searchlight and Thompson on Hollywood:

http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5249

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/new-poster-for-the-sessions-pushes-oscar-agenda#


QUESTIONS

As I get down to the last couple of weeks before the SHOW each year, I start to wonder about whether to include films that have cropped up on my radar and in my research that aren't "name" films.  I have 2-3 right now that I'm suspicious about but are also the result of some pretty big deductive leaps on my part.  For now, I'm keeping quiet...but I also have the temptation to spill titles because if they do end up being announced on Thursday afternoon...I'd look really, really brilliant or equally stupid.

So, I'm keeping my piehole closed here.  I will say Irish for one and indie horror short for the other.  I'll let you know...after the SHOW.

LATE BREAKING

Documentary "Love, Marilyn" expected to play this weekend in Telluride via Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere:
http://hollywood-elsewhere.com/2012/08/garbus_monroe.php

More later...

Follow me on Twitter @Gort2.

"Like" Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook.

And Now the 38th Telluride Film Festival

George Clooney and Alexander Payne on the set of "The Descendants"

83rd Oscars done...Check

TFF #38 passes on sale (started this week)...Check

TFF #37 Yearbook arrives in mail...Check

That means it's time to begin ferreting out the possible films for next Labor Day's Film Soiree in the San Juan Mountains of southwest Colorado. T-minus 6 months and counting until TFF #38 unspools at 9,000 feet.

So, what might we see? Thanks to the fine folks at Indiewire, Awards Daily, Hollywood Elsewhere, Film Misery, Rope of Silicon, Ioncinema and Incontention.com, I'm going to try to take a stab at some of next September's lineup in Telluride.

I looked back to last year's two columns in March when I tried this and found that I hit on "127 Hours'" "Another Year," Biutiful," "Black Swan," and "Never Let Me Go." So 5 of the 15 I took a stab with actually ended up in Telluride. I'd be pretty happy if I got that lucky again this year.

So without further ado...here's what might be at Telluride in September....

"The Descendants"- I had this on the list a year ago...didn't happen because it wasn't released. Now it's on the list for 2011. Why? It's director Alexander Payne with his first feature since Sideways in 2004. Payne was the 2009 Guest Director for the festival. You have to believe that if "The Descendants" is any good and since Fox Searchlight is the distributor that if they want it to play for Oscars a year from now its chances at being in Telluride are pretty good. The film stars George Clooney as a father with family issues and is set in Hawaii. Could we see Mr. Clooney on Colorado Ave. on Labor Day weekend? Maybe. Because I have a theory that he may be trying a double whammy with his own directorial effort...which leads to guess #2...

"The Ides of March"...directed by Mr. Clooney based on the political play "Farragut North' by Beau Willmon (adapted by Clooney and writing/producing partner Grant Heslov who brought you "Good Night and Good Luck" in 2005) . Clooney is featured as well as Ryan Gosling, Phillip Seymour Hoffman and Marisa Tomei. Why? The only rationale I have is synchronicity...If "Descendants" is there, then maybe Clooney kills two birds with one festival. And he'd get to re-unite on panels with the director of our third guess (and Clooney's director in 2009's "Up in the Air")...

"Young Adult" directed by Jason Reitman and written by Diablo Cody and starring Charlize Theron. You have to think that this pair that struck like lightening in Telluride in 2007 would try to replicate that experience (and Reitman had great success 2 years later when "Up in the Air" premiered there). The only hesitance I have putting this on the list is that it seems soooo obvious as to be no surprise at all. So the greater surprise might be a decision to go some other direction. But it's hard to argue with success and also, it may depend on Reitman's sense of superstition.

"Love" Michael Haneke returns after directing 2009's brilliant "The White Ribbon." You have to think that if it's ready (IMDB has it listed as a 2012 release) and on par with "Ribbon" (TFF #36) and "Cache (TFF #32) that it would be in the mix. "Love" stars Isabelle Huppert and Jean-Louis Trintignant.

"Moneyball" the story of Billy Beane and the Oakland A's baseball team starring Brad Pitt and Phillip Seymour Hoffman (...hmmm) and directed by Bennett Miller could show at The SHOW. Miller had terrific success with "Capote" (which, of course, starred Hoffman and earned him the Oscar....again...hmmmm) at Telluride #32 in 2005. It would also allow a mini-Ocean's 11-12-13 reunion between Pitt and Clooney.

"Shame" from writer-director Steve McQueen. His "Hunger" premiered at Telluride in 2008 and featured Michael Fassbender. Fassbender re-teams with McQueen for this film. So you have to think that because McQueen has some history at Telluride, that he could return with this. Oh, and the film also stars Telluride Belle of the Ball from the past two years, Carey Mulligan...she's been in town for both "An Education" (2009) and "Never Let Me Go." (2010) Three years in a row? I think it 's a real possibility. (If you see me in Telluride in September, ask me about my funny Steve McQueen story).

And speaking of "An Education," Lone Scherfig, is back this season with "One Day" starring Anne Hathaway and "The Way Back's" Jim Sturgess. It's story blurb on IMDB makes it sound a whole lot like "Same Time, Next Year" the Alan Alda/Ellen Burstyn comedy from 1978. Put it down as a possible for TFF #38.

"Wuthering Heights" Andrea Arnold who was a part of TFF in 2009 with "Fish Tank" is back directing this adaptation of the Emily Bronte classic.

"Chicken with Plums" the newest from Marjane Satrapi and Vincent Paronnaud who charmed Telluride audiences in 2007 with their wonderful animated "Persepolis"

"The Exchange" from director Eran Kolirin who was also a part of Telluride in 2007 with the delightful "The Band's Visit."

Pedro Almodovar who has often been a participant in Telluride Film Festivals could return for the first time sine 2006's "Volver" with his latest "The Skin That I Inhabit" starring Antonio Banderas as a revenge-seeking plastic surgeon.

"The Congress" from Ari Folman who last was in Telluride with his"Waltz with Bashir" in 2008. Although IMDB lists it as a 2013 release.

Others that could show (just because I have a "vibe" that they might): "Albert Nobbs" from director Rodrigo Garcia starring Glenn Close. Michelle Williams in "My Week with Marilyn" from director Simon Curtis. "A Dangerous Method" from director David Cronenberg featuring TFF # 36 tributee Viggo Mortensen and the aforementioned Michael Fassbender as Sigmund Freud and Carl Jung. "Coriolanus" the little seen Shakespearean play from actor-turned -director Ralph Fiennes.

In the "I'd love it, but there's no way it will be in Telluride" Department: Martin Scorsese's "Hugo Cabret," Clint Eastwood's "J. Edgar'" Stephen Daldry's "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close," Tom Hank's "Larry Crowne," and Cameron Crowe's "We Bought a Zoo."

And finally, Terrence Malick's "The Tree of Life" which I have been stalking obsessively for nearly two years is set to open May 27th...right after the Cannes Festival. So, now, maybe I start stalking the movie he just shot here in Oklahoma! IMDB lists it as a 2012 release. TFF #39 anyone?