Good Monday morning everyone. The wait for Oscar is nearly over...
THE FINAL FULL PRE-NOMINATION FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE
Oscar nominations are announced on Thursday morning. What will happen? Who will be nominated? Who will be left out? We find out Thursday.
I'll be updating through the week as conditions warrant.
The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery
As always the number in parenthesis to a title is its position vis-a-vis the last posting for that category on The FAC updates. Telluride #39 films are indicated in
Bold. [ *** ='s HOT, ### ="s NOT].
BEST PICTURE
1) Lincoln (1)
2) Argo (4)***
3) Les Miserables (2)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (3)
5) Silver Linings Playbook (5)
6) Life of Pi (6)
7) Beasts of the Southern Wild (7)
8) Django Unchained (9)
9) Amour (8)
10) Moonrise Kingdom (10)
11) Skyfall (14)***
12) The Master (11)
13) The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (12)
14) The Impossible (15)
15) Flight (13)
No Drop Outs
Comments: As I have been saying for two weeks now, “Argo” is likely the real competition against “Lincoln” for Best Picture. That seems to be echoed by its return to the #2 spot in just the last week. I also think that it’s possible that we’ll see it pop up in some semi-unexpected categories on Thursday morning. Like, perhaps, Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes. The conventional wisdom is that “Argo” is likely to be nominated for: Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Score and Editing so anything past those 6 in any other category would be a bit of a surprise…
Random Thoughts:
I think that the sentiment in this category for “Beasts” and “Amour” is weak and for “Django”, “Moonrise” and “Skyfall” may be stronger than many of the experts think.
I also continue to believe that “The Master”, despite having fallen all the way to the #12 spot, still has a better than 50/50 shot at a Best Picture nomination because of the voting rules that The Academy uses for its nomination process and the passion of “The Master’s” followers.
There has been some drift towards the notion that we might see a full slate of 10 pictures announced on Thursday morning. Again, the conventional wisdom has been that we’d see 8. Obviously, a slate of 10 benefits the films in the #7-#13 positions…Frankly, I don’t believe either “The Impossible” or “Flight” have any realistic shot at a Best Pic nom on Thursday.
Remember that The Academy rules allow anywhere from 5-10 films to be nominated in this category and that 9 were nominated last year.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Kathryn Bigelow/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Ben Affleck/Argo (3)
4) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (5)
5) Tom Hooper/Les Miserables (4)
6) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (6)
7) Michael Haneke/Amour (7)
8) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (8)
9) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (9)
10) Wes Anderson/Moonrise Kingdom (New)
Dropping Out: Robert Zemeckis/Flight
Comments: Spielberg, Bigelow and Affleck appear to be locks. Then it’s a free for all for the last two spots which any of the remaining 7 directors on the list could slide into. Most pundits think it’s a 3 for 2 situation with Lee, Hooper and Russell in a dead heat for the #4 and #5 spots but I could easily see Haneke, PT Anderson, Wes Anderson and especially Tarantino slipping into the final five.
The Director’s Guild announces their nominees tomorrow and the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announces their nominees on Wednesday in all categories and that could provide some insight to this category for Thursday morning.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
3) Marion Cotillard/Rust and Bone (3)
4) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (6)***
5) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (4)
6) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts of the Southern Wild (5)
7) Helen Mirren/Hitchcock (7)
8) Rachel Weisz/The Deep Blue Sea (8)
9) Judi Dench/The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (New)
10) Keira Knightley/Anna Karenina (9)
Dropping Out: Emayatzy Corinealdi/Middle of Nowhere
Comments: The real race is between Lawrence and Chastain as they continue to be within an eyelash of each other. Cotillard appears to be lock and then it gets very interesting for the last two spots between Watts, Wallis, Mirren and Riva. I think Watts has almost become a lock over the past three weeks or so but Riva, Wallis and Mirren all have some problems in getting to that last position. Right now my instinct is that Riva squeaks out a nomination over the other two. And let’s not forget the possibility that Rachel Weisz might sneak into the top five as well.
BEST ACTOR
1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings Playbook (5)***
4) John Hawkes/The Sessions (4)
5) Denzel Washington/Flight (3)###
6) Joaquin Pheonix/The Master (6)
7) Jean Louis Trintignant/Amour (7)
8) Richard Gere/Arbitrage (9)
9) Anthony Hopkins/Hitchcock (8)
10) Jamie Foxx/Django Unchained (10)
No Drop Outs
Comments: Your only lock is Day Lewis (and also the lock to win…he has a perfect score in the metric that I use). After that…it’s up for grabs. Jackman, Cooper and Hawkes look like the most likely…but each of them is far from certain. Washington, Phoenix and Gere, I think, make up the next tier for the last spot. Personally, I doubt that Trintignant, Hopkins or Foxx will hear their names on Thursday…but…weirder things have happened.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Sally Field/Lincoln (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Maggie Smith/The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (6)***
5) Amy Adams/The Master (4)
6) Nicole Kidman/The Paperboy (5)
7) Ann Dowd/Compliance (7)
8) Samantha Barks/Les Miserables (8)
9) Judi Dench/Skyfall (10)
10) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings Playbook (9)
No Drop Outs
Comments: Much like Day Lewis above, Hathaway is the runaway leader in this category to be nominated and then win (she missed a perfect score on The FAC metric by 1 point). Field and Hunt appear to be locks and the last two spots look to be a tug of war between Smith, Adams and Kidman.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (1)
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (2)
3) Alan Arkin/Argo (4)
4) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
5) Leonardo DiCaprio/Django Unchained (5)
6) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (6)
7) Javier Bardem/Skyfall (8)
8) Matthew McConaughey/Magic Mike (7)
9) Eddie Redmayne/Les Miserables (9)
10) Dwight Henry/Beasts of the Southern Wild (New)
Dropping Out: John Goodman/Flight
Comments: Jones, Hoffman, Arkin and DeNiro are all locks, I believe leaving one spot open for the two “Django” actors Bardem and McConaughey…I’m thinking “Magic Matthew” gets a nomination.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Tony Kushner/Lincoln (1)
2) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (2)
3) Chris Terrio/Argo (3)
4) David Magee/Life of Pi (5)
5) Behn Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar/Beasts of the Southern Wild (4)
6) William Nicholson/Les Miserables (6)
7) Ben Lewin/The Sessions (7)
8) Stephen Chbosky/The Perks of Being a Wallflower (8)
9) Tom Stoppard/Anna Karenina (9)
10) [TIE] Jose Rivera/On the Road and Richard Linklater and Skip Hollandsworth/Bernie
No Drop Outs
Comments: I think the top four spots are pretty solid. The fifth spot? My guess is Chbosky/Perks.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Mark Boal/Zero Dark Thirty (1)
2) Michael Haneke/Amour (3)
3) Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola/Moonrise Kingdom (4)***
4) Paul Thomas Anderson/The Master (2)###
5) Quentin Tarantino/Django Unchained (5)
6) Rian Johnson/Looper (7)
7) John Gatins/Flight (6)
8) Olivier Nakache and Eric Toledano/The Intouchables (9)
9) Ava DuVernay/Middle of Nowhere (8)
10) Nicholas Jarecki/Arbitrage (New)
Dropping Out: Reid Carolin/Magic Mike
Comments: The top five are all pretty solid with “Looper” having a decent shot to displace one of them for a nomination. What wouldn’t really surprise me is that “Looper” gets in and “Amour” is what gets bumped.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) Frankenweenie (1)
2) Brave (2)
3) Wreck It Ralph (3)
4) ParaNorman (4)
5) Rise of the Guardians (5)
6) The Painting (6)
7) The Rabbi’s Cat (8)
8) Up from Poppy Hill (7)
9) Hotel Transylvania (9)
10) Madagascar 3 (10)
No Drop Outs
Comments: The top three films are within 2 points of each other on the FAC metric. That should all be nominated Thursday morning and a spirited race for the Oscar should ensue. My guess is that “The Painting” displaces either “ParaNorman” or “Rise of the Guardians” in the slugfest for the #4 and #5 positions.
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
1) Amour (1)
2) The Intouchables (2)
3) A Royal Affair (3)
4) No (4)
5) Kon Tiki (5)
6) Sister (6)
7) War Witch (8)
8) The Deep (9)
9) Beyond the Hills (7)###
No Drop Outs
Comments: I think that the top four spots are solid and that “Sister” or “Beyond the Hills” will bump “Kon Tiki” for the fifth slot.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) Searching for Sugarman (1)
2) The Gatekeepers (2)
3) How to Survive a Plague (3)
4) Mea Maxima Culpa (4)
5) The Invisible War (5)
6) The House I Live In (7)
7) Detropia (6)
8) Bully (8)
9) The Imposter (9)
10) Chasing Ice (10)
No Changes
Comments: In this notoriously difficult category to predict, I think your only safe bets are “Sugarman” and “Gatekeepers”…after that…it’s up in the air. Additionally, don’t be shocked if a film not even on the top ten here gets a nomination on Thursday morning. I won’t be shocked if “Ai Wei Wei”, “5 Broken Cameras” or This is Not a Film” show up on the list of five.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) Skyfall (2)
3) The Master (3)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (5)
5) Lincoln (4)
6) Les Miserables (6)
7) Anna Karenina (7)
8) Django Unchained (8)
9) Beasts of the Southern Wild (9)
10) The Dark Knight Rises (New)
Dropping Out: The Hobbit
Comments: The top five seem to be well positioned until you look at the films in the 6-10 spots…then you realize that any of them (or all of them) could be nominated. Could be a crazy category on Thursday morning…and this is also one of those categories that “Argo” could sneak a nomination in if it has really been adopted by members of The Academy.
BEST FILM EDITING
1) Zero Dark Thirty (3)***
2) Argo (1)
3) Lincoln (2)
4) Life of Pi (5)
5) Les Miserables (4)
6) The Master (6)
7) Django Unchained (10)***
8) Silver Linings Playbook (7)
9) Skyfall (8)
10) The Dark Knight Rises (9)
No changes
Comments: I think the top five here are also in good shape but if there are spoilers they could be “Django” for “Les Mis” and/or “Silver Linings” if its mojo is rolling…”SLP”, “Lincoln” and “Les Mis” may all benefit from the Best Edit/Best Picture connection that seems to show up most years.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) [TIE] Skyfall/Skyfall (6)*** and Suddenly/Les Miserables (1)
3) Learn Me Right/Brave (4)
4) Still Alive/Still Alive (2)###
5) Ancora Qui/Django Unchained (New)***
6) Pi’s Lullaby/Life of Pi (New)***
7) From Here to the Moon and Back/Joyful Noise (5)
8) Touch the Sky/Brave (3)###
9) Before My Time/Chasing Ice (New)***
10) Freedom/Django Unchained (New)***
Dropping Out: Song of the Lonely Mountain/The Hobbit, Cosmonaut/Lawless, Everybody Needs a Best Friend/Ted and Breath of Life/Snow White and the Huntsman
Comments: This is another category that defies easy prediction. “Skyfall” and “Suddenly” look like locks and then after that…sheesh. “Learn Me Right” is probable…then I could easily believe a nomination for “Django” and/or “Joyful Noise” or another “Brave” nomination and I even think that the song from “Chasing Ice” has a real shot because, if for no other reason than it’s co-written by Scarlett Johansson.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) Life of Pi (2)
2) Lincoln (1)
3) Argo (3)
4) Anna Karenina (5)
5) Beasts of the Southern Wild (6)
6) The Master (4)###
7) Cloud Atlas (7)
8) Zero Dark Thirty (New)***
9) On the Road (New)***
10) Skyfall (9)
Dropping Out: Moonrise Kingdom and The Hobbit
Comments: “Pi” “Lincoln” and “Argo” are locks. Personally, I’m guessing “The Master” and “Zero Dark Thirty” get the last two spots…at least as of this morning.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Lincoln (3)
3) Les Miserables (2)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) The Master (7)***
6) The Hobbit (5)
7) Django Unchained (New)***
8) Cloud Atlas (6)###
9) Prometheus (8)
10) Zero Dark Thirty (New)***
Dropping Out: Argo and The Dark Knight Rises
Comments: If I were putting money on this category, I’d be pretty content with the top five but any of the next 7 could also be nominated. Again, if “Argo” is having a big morning, this is a category that it could surprise in.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Anna Karenina (1)
2) Les Miserables (2)
3) Lincoln (3)
4) Django Unchained (10)***
5) Mirror Mirror (4)
6) Snow White and the Huntsman (5)
7) Cloud Atlas (6)
8) A Royal Affair (7)
9) Argo (8)
10) The Master (9)
No changes
Comment: No category (oddly) better illustrates how much “Django” has moved up in the collective consciousness of the Oscar prognosticators than this one.
BEST MAKEUP AND HAIR (7 FINALISTS/3 NOMINEES)
1) Lincoln (1)
2) The Hobbit (3)
3) Les Miserables (4)
4) Men in Black 3
5) Hitchcock (5)
6) Looper (7)
7) Snow White and the Huntsman (New)
Drop Outs: Cloud Atlas, Anna Karenina, The Impossible and Prometheus
Comments: I’d go with the top 3 here.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS (TEN FINALISTS/FIVE NOMINEES)
1) Life of Pi (1)
2) The Hobbit (2)
3) The Avengers (4)
4) Cloud Atlas (3)
5) Prometheus (5)
6) The Dark Knight Rises (6)
7) John Carter (10)***
8) Skyfall (8)
9) Snow White and the Huntsman (9)
10) The Amazing Spiderman (7)###
Comments: My guess would be that “Dark Knight” displaces “Prometheus”.
BEST SOUND EDITING
1) Skyfall (1)
2) Les Miserables (3)
3) The Dark Knight Rises (2)
4) Zero Dark Thirty (5)
5) Life of Pi (4)
6) The Avengers (6)
7) Django Unchained (7)
8) The Hobbit (8)
9) Lincoln (New)***
10) Prometheus (9)
Drop out: The Impossible
Comments: Go with the top five here.
BEST SOUND MIXING
1) Skyfall (2)
2) Les Miserables (1)
3) Zero Dark Thirty (4)
4) The Dark Night Rises (3)
5) Life of Pi (5)
6) Django Unchained (7)
7) The Avengers (6)
8) Lincoln (New)***
9) Prometheus (New)***
10) The Hobbit (10)###
Dropping Out: Flight and The Impossible
Comments: I like the top five here as well.
SHORT FORM CATEGORIES
Three categories about which there isn’t enough information for me to make even a guess. So…
ANIMATED SHORT FINALISTS:
Adam and Dog
Combustible
Dripped
The Eagleman Stag
The Fall of the House of Usher
Fresh Guacamole
Head Over Heels
Maggie Simpson in The Longest Daycare
Paperman
Tram
SHORT DOCUMENTARY FINALISTS:
The Education of Mohammad Hussein
Inocente
King’s Point
Monday’s at Racine
Open Heart
Paraiso
The Perfect Fit
Redemption
LIVE ACTION SHORT FINALISTS:
A Fabrica (The Factory)
Asad
Buzkashi Boys
Curfew
Death of a Shadow
Henry
Kiruna-Kigali
The Night Shift Belongs to the Stars
9meter
Salar
When you find me
The Breakdown for Telluride:
14 major nominations plus another 3 probable in Animated Shorts for "Paperman" and "Tram" and in Short Live Action with "Asad" and another 4 possibles.
The Breakdown by film if the FAC is 100% accurate now shows:
Lincoln 12 nominations/2 possibles
Les Miserables 10 nominations/4 possibles
Life of Pi 10 nominations/1 possible
Zero Dark Thirty 8 nominations/2 possibles
Argo 6 nominations/1 possible
Django Unchained 5 nominations/9 possibles
The Master 5 nominations/6 possibles
Silver Linings Playbook 5 nominations/3 possibles
Skyfall 4 nominations/6 possibles
Amour 4 nominations/2 possibles
Beasts of the Southern Wild 3 nominations/3 possibles
Anna Karenina 3 nominations/3 possibles
The Sessions, Brave, The Dark Knight Rises and The Hobbit with 2 nominations each.
Other Telluride major nominations for Rust and Bone, An Royal Affair, No and The Gatekeepers.
MY FINAL NOTES FOR NOMINATIONS WILL BE POSTED WEDNESDAY MORNING IN A SPECIAL TO THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE.
OSCAR MATTERS
The latest Feinberg Forecast from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter is here:
Also this week's "A Few Minutes with Feinberg" as well:
Rope of Silicon's Podcast:
http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/podast-happy-new-year/
FROM THE INSIDE
Over the past few years as I have been attending the Telluride Film Festival I have been fortunate enough to have made some friends/acquaintances that actually are members of the film industry. Some are Academy members, some are not. All of them are passionate about film.
Many of these fine folks have been kind enough to share their thoughts and insights into this year’s crop of films with a special emphasis on the Oscar.
My “friends” include people who direct, produce, market, study, write in the industry. They range in age from 20-somethings to 70-somethings. It’s a broad swath. And here are some of the comments they have shared…
Films that received the most praise from this group included:
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Amour
A Royal Affair
Silver Linings Playbook
Life of Pi
More divisive films among this group were:
Les Miserables
The Master
Django Unchained
Lincoln
A lot of complaints from the group mirror what you may have seen in other places…
Length of this year’s films is a big sticking point among this crew. After all, “Lincoln”, “Django”, “Zero Dark Thirty”, “The Master”, “Les Miserables” and others clock in at over 2 ½ hours. It’s a weird trend that has been magnified by the late season release of so many Oscar contenders.
There is considerable complaining about the Oscars themselves and the perceived penchant for choosing the bland and middle of the road.
Some of my friends will be pleased on Thursday morning, some incensed.
THIS AND THAT
National Society of Film Critics likes "Amour", "The Master" and "Zero Dark Thirty". See the results here from InContention:
Meanwhile, earlier in the week The Writers Guild of America announced their finalists for various script writing awards. Because of their requirements, a number of possible Oscar screenplays were not eligible. TFF #39 films "Argo" was nominated for Best Adaptation and "The Central Park Five" was nominated for Documentary scripting. The complete list and analysis from Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood is here:
Coming later today on MTFB/FAC, I'll post some thoughts from Academy members and industry members about what they'd like to see or not see on Thursday morning.
More later...
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