Tuesday, February 19, 2013

5 Days to Oscar:The FAC: Foreign, Animated and Doc/Best Oscar Predictor? Telluride/Riva on the Rise

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to a special added post of The Film Awards Clearinghouse.  All this week, I'll be posting daily as we move closer to Sunday night and Oscar time.

First note: Oscar balloting closes today at 5:00PM PST.

Yesterday I posted the latest numbers on the Big 8 categories (Picture, Director, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplay).  For the rest of the week, I'll  be posting updates on all of the remaining categories with an update for Best Picture on Thursday and  every category on Sunday morning.  It should be a lot of fun.

Today's FAC checks in on Best Animated Feature, Foreign Language Film and Documentary.  As always, these are the sources (using their publicly posted Oscar predictions) I use to arrive at the FAC charts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.


1) Brave (2)
2) Wreck It Ralph (1)
3) Frankenweenie (3)
4) ParaNorman (4)
5) Pirates: Band of Misfits (5)

Comment:  "Brave" has taken an incredibly slight lead in one of this year's most competitive categories.


1) Searching for Sugarman (1)
2) The Gatekeepers (2)
3) How to Survive a Plague (3)
4) The Invisible War (4)
5) 5 Broken Cameras (5)

Comment: Put this category into the "locked" division.


1) Amour (1)
2) A Royal Affair (2)
3) Kon Tiki (5)
4) No (3)
5) War Witch (4)

Comment: Another category wherein the winner is locked.


John Horn of the Los Angeles Times posted a story yesterday with the claim that the best predictor of Oscar success may be the Telluride Film Festival...which bums me out, because I've been working on a similar article for publication here for after the Oscars (which I'll almost certainly do anyway).  Nevertheless, here's the link to Horn's post:


Fair warning...I had been planning a big post for after The Oscars on somewhat the same topic.  After reading the Horn story...I'll still be doing that.


As we have gotten closer to Oscar, "Amour's" Emmanuelle Riva has emerged as a serious contender for the Best Actress award.  Jennifer Lawrence of "Silver Lining's Playbook" has been the perceived front runner for some time, but Riva's rise has been impressive and a number of very smart people think she's going to become the oldest Oscar acting winner ever.  This week, she talked with Anne Thompson and Scott Feinberg about the film, her role and other topics:

Here's the link to the Thompson interview:

And to Feinberg's:

More on Wednesday...

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