Michael's Telluride Film Blog : New FAC for the Big Six/Directors Say "Argo"/Oscar Talk/Gatekeepers

Good Morning on a Monday!

Less that three weeks until the Oscar race comes to an end...and it continues to evolve... in some categories. Ben Affleck's win for direction from the DGA (see below) continues "Argo's" return to the top of the Best Picture chart.

NEW FAC FOR THE BIG SIX

The FAC reviews the Oscar predictions of the following to arrive at its "predictions":

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Scott Feinberg/The Feinberg Forecast-The Hollywood Reporter
Kristopher Tapley/InContention-HitFix
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood-IndieWire
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Telluride #39 films are indicated in Bold.

+BEST PICTURE

1) Argo (2)
2) Lincoln (1)
3) Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Life of Pi (4)
5) Les Miserables (5)
6) Zero Dark Thirty (6)
7) Amour (9)
8) Beasts of the Southern Wild (8)
9) Django Unchained (7)

Comment: The "Argo" climb is complete as it returns to the number one spot on the FAC chart. Our numbers say it's a whisper thin lead over "Lincoln" but these numbers were crunched prior to the DGA award presentation to Affleck on Saturday night.

That means that "Argo" has swept the big precursor awards straight through with only the Writer's Guild and the BAFTA (British Oscars) awards left before Oscar Sunday on Feb. 24.

My expectation is that when I check in again next Monday "Argo" will have opened a bit of breathing space between itself and "Lincoln". It definitely has momentum at the moment. But keep in mind that Oscar voting doesn't actually open up until Friday. Things could still turn.

This all reminds me a little bit of the 2012 Republican primary...in that there has been a fairly constant change about which film (or candidate) has the frontrunner status. For the GOP, it was all about which candidate rose up to challenge and lead (even if for a small period) Mitt Romney. Remember that Bachman, Gingrich, Cain, Santorum and Perry all had the Big Mo at some point...yet, at the end, it was Mitt. Similarly, at various points the Oscar favorite has appeared to be "Argo", "Les Miz", "Zero Dark Thirty", Silver Linings' and "Lincoln". Now we've come back to "Argo"...and the question is "Is "Argo" Mitt? or could it still be "Lincoln"?

Suffice it to say that there's till enough time for an "Argo" stumble/collapse/backlash (another one, that is). For the moment, with less than 3 weeks left until the opening of the envelope, "Argo" seems to have reclaimed the favorite's mantle, and seems the most likely to actually hang onto it until Feb. 24th.

At the bottom of the stack, there has been a little increase in love for Michael Haneke's "Amour". Not enough to make it a player...but still...a nudge upward...perhaps actually portending a shot at Best Original Screenplay that's more realistic.

+BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/Lincoln (1)
2) Ang Lee/Life of Pi (2)
3) David O. Russell/Silver Linings Playbook (3)
4) Michael Haneke/Amour (4)
5) Benh Zeitlin/Beasts (4)

Comment: The Spielberg lead continues to be solid though it will be interesting to see if there's any erosion in that perception as a result of the Affleck/DGA win.

+BEST ACTRESS

1) Jennifer Lawrence/Silver Linings Playbook (1)
2) Emanuelle Riva/Amour (3)
3) Jessica Chastain/Zero Dark Thirty (2)
4) Quvenzhane Wallis/Beasts (4)
5) Naomi Watts/The Impossible (5)

Comment: Lawrence's lead has grown a bit and a race that at one point seemed like a throw down between her and Chastain has melted away. Chastain could still be in play, but as of this number crunching, the biggest challenge may actually come from Emanuelle Riva who is gaining ground and has squeaked past Chastain on the FAC chart.

+ BEST ACTOR
1) Daniel Day Lewis/Lincoln (1)
2) Hugh Jackman/Les Miserables (2)
3) Bradley Cooper/Silver Linings (3)
4) Denzel Washington/Flight (4)
5) Joaquin Phoenix/The Master (5)

Comment: OK...you can say it now. If anyone wins this but Day Lewis, it will rank as one of the greatest upsets in Oscar history.

+BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Anne Hathaway/Les Miserables (1)
2) Sally Filed/Lincoln (2)
3) Helen Hunt/The Sessions (3)
4) Amy Adams/The Master (4)
5) Jacki Weaver/Silver Linings (5)

Comment: The FAC says that Hathaway is as prohibitive a favorite as DDL is for Best Actor, but I'm not quite as convinced. I think Sally Field might still have a shot here.

+BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Tommy Lee Jones/Lincoln (2)
2) Philip Seymour Hoffman/The Master (1)
3) Christoph Waltz/Django Unchained (4)
4) Robert DeNiro/Silver Linings (3)
5) Alan Arkin/Argo (5)

Comment: The category that continues to be the most unpredictable, mercurial and fun. Jones does a pretty substantial jump from #2 to #1...but PSH, DeNiro and Waltz are all in striking distance. The only thing that our predictors agree on is that Arkin is the odd man out.

DGA SAYS "ARGO"

The Directors Guild of America named Ben Affleck the recipient of its highest honor for feature film making on Saturday night for his direction of "Argo" despite the lack of a Best Directing Oscar nomination from The Academy.

The award continued a string of Guild and other major precursor/awards success (Critics Circle/Golden Globe, PGA, SAG) for the thriller that dramatizes the unlikely story of how six Americans were spirited our of Iran at the height of the 1979-80 hostage crisis.

The award also will end up making some sort of Oscar history since Affleck is not Oscar nominated for direction. Check out the links below for the details as to how unusual this year has been and is:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/ben-affleck-lena-dunham-rian-johnson-win-directors-guild-awards

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/why-ben-afflecks-argo-win-417656

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/2013/02/03/the-state-of-the-race-the-winners-circle/#more-61071

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