Well....This should be the third update, but the one set for Sept. 29 just never got put together...so this will be a combination of #2 and #3...
TFF #36 pics in CAPS AND BOLD.
1) UP IN THE AIR
3) The Hurt Locker
6) AN EDUCATION
6) The Lovely Bones
10) A Serious Man
11) The Tree of Life
12) A Single Man
14) Inglorious Basterds
15) Julie and Julia
Gone from Post #1: Capitalism: A Love Story, Public Enemies, THE ROAD, The Informant!, and BRIGHT STAR
Comments: Since the first post 5 weeks ago, Up in the Air has zoomed to the top of the list. An Education has held held on solidly. But The Road and Bright Star have lost their luster. Personally I am not really surprised by the dip for Bright Star...thought it was pretty ponderous...but I am a real advocate for The Road...It might be the Best Movie of the year. Other notes...Invictus has lost some steam as has Lovely Bones and Amelia...(Lord, Amelia is taking a nose-dive...pardon the pun) one gets the sense that they may not live up to the hype...which also doesn't bode well for Nine (but I finally saw the trailer...and it looks PHENOMENAL). Finally, Serious Man and Single Man both gained some pretty substantial ground.
1) JASON REITMAN/UITA
2) Lee Daniels/Precious
3) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker
4) Rob Marshall/Nine
5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus
6) Peter Jackson/Bones
7) LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION
8) Terrance Malick/Tree
9) J. and E. Coen/Serious Man
9) Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious
Dropping Out: James Cameron and JANE CAMPION
Notes: Reitman was the big gainer over the month-plus (no surprise there). Rob Marshall suffered the largest decline on the list...making the above comment about Nine seem a lot more trenchant.
1) Morgan Freeman/Invictus
2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA
3) Colin Firth/Single Man
4) Daniel Day-Lewis
5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker
6) Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine
7) Matt Damon/Informant!
8) Hal Holbrook/That Evening Sun
9) VIGGO MORTENSEN/ROAD
10) Johnny Depp/Public Enemies
Gone: BEN WHISHAW and Sean Penn
Comment: Clooney is still riding the wave from Telluride. Freeman continues to be on top, but has lost some luster. Colin Firth is red hot after Toronto as is his film "A Single Man". Also with some heat is Jeremy Renner as "Hurt Locker" continues to linger from this summer's releases as the most likely to pick up some Oscar love.
1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION
2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia
3) Gabrielle Sidibe/Precious
4) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION
5) Saroise Ronan/Lovely Bones
6) ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR
7) Hillary Swank/Amelia
8) Michelle Monaghan/Trucker
9) Marion Cotillard/Nine
10) Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces
Gone: Michelle Pfeiffer, AUDREY TAUTOU
Comment: Mulligan continues to be regarded as a lock and Dame Helen Mirren is the hottest mover right now after Sony Pictures Classics has picked up the distribution rights to The Last Station (and after having just won the Best Actress prize this past weekend at the Rome Film Festival). SPC reportedly has promised an Oscar campaign as part of that deal...which also bodes well for Last Station in other categories...like for Christopher Plummer and James McAvoy as well as some tech consideration. Screenplay and Best Pic? Who knows. Depends on the quality of such wait and sees as Invictus, Nine and The Lovely Bones. Although if Amelia is an indication....Finally, Abbie Cornish drops into the "lurker" category...I personally am guessing that trend will continue as Bright Star fades...
Best Supporting Actor:
1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds
2) Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones
3) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION
4) Matt Damon/Invictus
5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION
6) JAMES MC AVOY/LAST STATION
7) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION
8) ROBERT DUVALL/THE ROAD
9) Richard Kind/Serious Man
9) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker
Gone: PAUL SCHNEIDER, KODI SMIT-MC PHEE, Jeff Bridges, Richard Gere
Comment: Last year it was the Best Actress category that held the potential to be dominated by Telluride connections...and NONE OF THEM ENDED UP NOMINATED...That chance this year exists in this category. And I suspect that the shutout of last year will not be repeated. Who's hot??? Plummer and McAvoy again from Last Station...but Plummer really should be in the Lead category...not here. Come on SPC...Waltz continues to be regarded as a shoo-in...Duvall has picked up a little steam (it's a terrific performance). Who's cooling??? Damon and Kind.
Best Supporting Actress:
2) Penelope Cruz/nine
3) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA
4) Julianne Moore/Single Man
5) Judi Dench/Nine
6) Susan Sarndon/Lovely Bones
7) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies
8) Rachel Wiesz/Lovely Bones
9) Nicole Kidman/Nine
10) Catherine Keener/Wild Things
Gone: Sigouney Weaver, VERA FARMIGA, Jessica Chastain, Melanie Laurent
Comment: Seems like a category searching for nominees. almost everyone has lost some steam from our first post 5 weeks ago...except Kendrick and Moore...who is the hottest mover for Single Man.
1) UP IN THE AIR
3) AN EDUCATION
4) The Lovely Bones
5) A Single Man
Others: Nine, Where the Wild Things Are
Comment: The potential nominees in both screenwriting categories continue to be incredibly narrow with only 8 adapted scripts and 8 original scripts getting mentioned across the 6-7 sources we're currently using. In adapted...UITA and Education are up slightly...Precious and Lovely Bones are down slightly and Invictus and Single Man appear for the first time.
2) A Serious Man
3) The Hurt Locker
4) BRIGHT STAR
5) 500 Days of Summer
Also: The Tree of Life, Inglorious Basterds, and District 9
TFF #36 films sit with 12 "nominations" in the Big Eight categories with another 6 "lurking".
5 "Noms": UP IN THE AIR, Precious, Invictus, and Nine
4 "Noms": AN EDUCATION, The Hurt Locker, The Lovely Bones
3 "Noms": A Single Man
Combined "noms" and "Lurkings"
The Lovely Bones (7)
AN EDUCATION (6)
UP IN THE AIR, The Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus (5)
A Serious Man, A Single Man, Inglorious Basterds (4)
THE LAST STATION, The Tree of Life (3)
BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, Up, Julie and Julia, Amelia (2)
Final Thoughts: Up in the Air continues to go like gangbusters and The Last Station has gathered a lot of heat in the last month (and if you read this blog at all during the festival, you know we were impressed with it). Hate that The Road is losing steam. I still think it's likely the best film of the year.