A Week Later... / Nomadland to "Play Telluride" (and Other Places) / Herzog's Fireball Has a Home

A WEEK LATER...

So a week ago I posted a segment suggesting the possibility that the 2020 Oscar season might already be locked in.  My notion was that some possible players will ultimately end up missing the eligibility window as studios/distributors will opt to hold their release until later in 2021.

Then the past week happened and films began to disappear from the announced release schedule.  It was a little surreal.  Tenet...who knows?  Mulan...same.  Even The French Dispatch-which we suspect will be announced as a TFF #47 selection- has gone from an Oct. 16th release date to indeterminant.

I'm beginning to think my idle speculation about what the 2020 Oscar race ends up looking like might actually be what happens.

Here's how I laid out the Oscar race a week ago using the predictions from Clayton Davis' Awards Circuit and ignoring films that I thought might get scheduled outside the window of Oscar eligibility with probable TFF #47 films in Bold:

1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (set to drop on Netflix on Oct. 16th)
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward


It seems to me that the slew of announcements from Warners, Paramount and Disney made the above scenario more likely.

Now, I will note here that I have seen some scuttlebutt on social media arguing that the Academy should, at this point, do a combined 2020-2021 Oscar season.  Though that's possible, I don't see that as very likely.  My guess...and it is just a guess, is that the Academy will stick to its guns having already extended Oscar season to two months and providing studios with the ability for a film to have Oscar eligibility even with its premiere occurring non-theatrically.

I have linked a number of re-scheduling stories from this past week below:

ShowBiz411

Hollywood Elsewhere

The Film Stage


NOMADLAND TO "PLAY TELLURIDE" AFTER ALL (AND OTHER PLACES)

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland will play Telluride...after a fashion.  Indiewire reports that there will be a special drive-in presentation of the film under the banner of "Telluride from Los Angeles".

Thom Geier at The Wrap reports that the drive-in experience will happen on the evening of Sept. 11th-the same night it co-world premieres at both Venice and Toronto and that director Chloe Zhao and star Frances McDormand are scheduled to appear.

Other Nomadland news was revealed, however, as Indiewire's Zach Sharf reports that the film has been selected as the New York Film Fest's centerpiece and that it will also screen as apart of the official program for both Toronto and Venice.

The occurrence of a film playing all four fests is unusual but I suspect that we'll see more of that than this year because of the disruption created by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Nomadland as yet, no announced release date.

The Wrap's story can be found here.

The Indiewire story can be found here.




HERZOG'S FIREBALL HAS A HOME

Apple TV+ has acquired the Werner Herzog documentary Fireball according to Deadline.com.  That acquisition means the film is still a possibility to be named as one of the 20 or so films that are expected to be announced as "TFF #47" choices any day.

And speaking of TFF #47 choices, I'm expecting that list any day now.  With Venice announcing their lineup tomorrow and Toronto likely to name some of their lineup later this week, I wouldn't be stunned should we get that information before close of day on Friday.

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Oscar Nominees List...More to Come

OSCAR NOMINEES...MORE TO COME...

Best Picture
The Big Short
Bridge of Spies
Brooklyn
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Room
Spotlight

Best Actress
Cate Blanchett, Carol
Brie Larson, Room
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn

Best Actor
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Matt Damon, The Martian
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl

Best Supporting Actress
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Rooney Mara, Carol
Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs

Best Supporting Actor
Christian Bale, The Big Short
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Sylvester Stallone, Creed

Best Director
The Big Short, Adam McKay
Mad Max: Fury Road, George Miller
The Revenant, Alejandro G. Iñárritu
Room, Lenny Abrahamson
Spotlight, Tom McCarthy

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Big Short
Brooklyn
Carol
The Martian
Room

Best Original Screenplay
Bridge of Spies
Ex Machina
Inside Out
Spotlight
Straight Outta Compton

Best Animated Feature
Anomalisa
Boy and the World
Inside Out
Shaun the Sheep Movie
When Marnie Was There

Best Documentary Feature
Amy
Cartel Land
Look of Silence
What Happened Miss Simone
Winter on Fire

Best Foreign Language Film
“Embrace of the Serpent” Colombia
“Mustang” France
“Son of Saul” Hungary
“Theeb” Jordan
“A War” Denmark

Best Original Score
Bridge of Spies
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Original Song
“Earned It,” Fifty Shades of Grey
“Manta Ray,” Racing Extinction
“Simple song No. 3,” Youth
“Til it Happens to You,” The Hunting Ground
“Writing’s on the Wall,” Spectre

Best Cinematography
Carol
The Hateful Eight
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Sicario

Best Film Editing
The Big Short
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant
Spotlight
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Production Design
Bridge of Spies
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Mad Max: Fury Road
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out a Window and Disappeared
The Revenant

Best Costume Design
Carol
Cinderella
The Danish Girl
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Revenant

Best Animated Short
Bear Story
Prologue
Sanjay’s Super Team
We Can’t Live Without Cosmos
World of Tomorrow

Best Visual Effects
Ex Machina
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Editing
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Sicario
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Sound Mixing
Bridge of Spies
Mad Max: Fury Road
The Martian
The Revenant
Star Wars: The Force Awakens

Best Documentary Short
Body Team 12
Chau, Beyond the Lines
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness
Last Day of Freedom

Best Live Action Short
Ave Maria
Day One
Everything Will Be Okay (Alles Wird Gut)
Shok
Stutterer

Oscar at the Half/Best of the Week: SPC, Sundance Selects and IFC, Foxcatcher Poster and Trailer, Fassbender's Western, St. Vincent and The Tribe

Good Saturday to All...

OSCAR AT THE HALF

Both Kris Tapley at HitFix and Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter took the opportunity this past week to take a look at the awards landscape as we moved past the half way point on the 2014 calendar.  As you might expect, both fellows suggest that the bulk of films that are likely to contend are still to come.  I have linked both Kris' and Scott's posts here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/off-the-carpet-its-half-time-in-the-2014-2015-oscar-race

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-2015-standout-films-halfway-715729

BEST OF THE WEEK

Here's the best from Michael's Tellluride Film Blog from this past week...

TEN BETS 2014 #2

Here's your second edition of "Ten Bets" for films that I expect to appear at the 41st Telluride Film Festival. Last weeks list looked like this:

10) Salt of the Earth (Wenders)
9) Winter Sleep (Ceylan)
8) Red Army (Polsky)
7) Coming Home (Yimou)
6) Foxcatcher (Miller)
5) The Roosevelts (Burns)
4) Leviathan (Zvyagintsev)
3) Birdman (Inarritu)
2) Two Days, One Night (Dardennes)
1) Mr. Turner (Leigh)

  

After a week of tracking any Telluride news/rumors, here's your new "Ten Bets" (also, see the next story below):

10) Coming Home

9) Winter Sleep

8) Red Army

7) The Roosevelts

6) Queen of the Desert

5) Foxcatcher

4) Leviathan

3) Two Days, One Night

2) Mr. Turner

1) Birdman

NEWS FROM WELLS

"Birdman" trailer via YouTube

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere posted a Telluride piece on Wednesday.  He claims that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's "Birdman" is a Telluride lock...which I have suspected for over a year.  Also a lock, according to Wells: Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" which has also been anticipated here, as long as it was finished.  Wells also says that Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" and David Fincher's "Gone Girl" are locked for the New York Fest and necessarily pre-empted for T-ride. 

The really interesting tidbit is the possibility of a Telluride presentation of Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar".  Up until last year, I would have thought this unlikely in the extreme but with the success of Telluride landing Alfonso Cuaron's "Gravity" last year...I could believe this.  I'm not there yet...but I don't rule it out either.

Wells also has a couple of comments about the Toronto Film Fests ultimatum vis-a-vis Telluride and you can find the entire piece here:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2014/07/50534/#more-50534

RUDDERLESS RELEASE IS SET

Well, you know, if you read this space with any regularity, I have been following, rather obsessively, the progress of William H. Macy's Sundance hit "Rudderless".  I've been privy to a lot of the backstage machinations on the film for more than five years and it's with great pleasure that I can pass on this news.  "Rudderless" will be released in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.  That info comes via a tweet from Macy himself who said yesterday:

"Gentle Folk,
RUDDERLESS opens in theaters Oct 17th. Good lord I'm jacked up about this movie. More later. Macy"

Though I haven't seen this tidbit anywhere in the media...I'm pretty sure that Macy's got his dates right.  No news as to how wide a release the Oct. 17th date will be as yet so I'll keep an eye out on that.  So, I suppose that makes this an "exclusive".  Or, at any rate, an exclusive for those of us who follow Macy on Twitter.

LOOKING AT THE SONY PICTURES CLASSICS SLATE

No distributor has historically had a stronger presence at the Telluride Film Festival than Sony Pictures Classics.  Fest hondos usually tell people that they program between 24 and 30 feature films each year.  For the last ten years, SPC has averaged 4.6 films per festival...or somewhere in the neighborhood of 18% of the T-ride slate each year comes from the SPC stable.


Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 11 years :

2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune.
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam

Here are SPC's films listed by IMDb as of today:

"Leviathan" 

"Jimmy's Hall"

"The Salt of the Earth"

"Foxcatcher"

"Wild Tales"

"Saint Laurent"

"Coming Home"

"Red Army"

"Mr. Turner"

"Aloft"

Six of these films were listed on last week's first "Ten Bets" list.  (Those six are: "Leviathan", "The Salt of the Earth", "Foxcatcher", "Coming Home", "Red Army" and "Mr. Turner").  At this point the other four: "Jimmy's Hall", "Wild Tales", "Saint Laurent" and "Aloft" are less likely to my way of thinking, but none of these ten are impossible for TFF.

SUNDANCE SELECTS TELLURIDE POSSIBLES

Only a player in distribution for just a few years, Sundance Selects has been present at the Telluride Film Festival for the last four fests at various levels of involvement.

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Tabloid
2011: The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love and Into the Abyss
2012: The Central Park Five, Everyday

2013: Blue is the Warmest Color

So you can expect one or possibly two of their films to make the grade Labor Day weekend.  Currently Sundance Selects has two Cannes films that could be programmed at Telluride:  Mathieu Amalric's "The Blue Room" and the almost 100% lock that is the Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night" with Marion Cotillard.

I'm at the point, and have been for a long time, that "Two Days" is a virtual TFF #41 certainty.  Amalric's "Blue Room" is a "could be" that I'd estimate at a 30% chance of making the T-ride program.

IFC FILMS AND TFF #41

IFC films has been a fairly substantial presence at Telluride over the past several years.  The firms highlight year probably was 2008 (the writer's strike year) when it was represented by 5 films.  IFC Films sometimes partners with Sundance Selects.

Here's the film record for IFC Films at Telluride for the past ten years:

2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina
2012: Frances Ha
2013: No Show

IFC Films averages 2.3 films per year at the Telluride Film Festival over the last decade. So...what's in the IFC pipeline that has Telluride implications?

The one that seems most likely is Olivier Assayas' "Clouds of Sils Maria" which also played Cannes.  After that there is also "Bird People", "The Salvation" and "Welcome to New York".  It seems to me that "The Salvation" might be the next most likely film but any of these four or none of them could make the T-ride lineup.

THE PLAYLIST SEEKS FALL FEST CLARITY

IndieWire blog The Playlist posted "The Fall Festival 50: Our Wish list for the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals" yesterday and there is a LOT to digest from the lengthy list of films (which actually edges over the 50 mark when "other possibilities" are included.

The Playlist specifically mentions Telluride in connection with six films:  "Unbroken", "While We're Young", "Men, Women and Children", "99 Homes", "True Story" and "Kill the Messenger".  Of that list, I'd agree on the Noah Baumbach "While We're Young".  All of the others have "issues" that may work against their inclusion.  I would love to see "Unbroken" make the trip to the San Juans though.

Four films that I think have some Telluride potential are listed in the article without any specific guess as to where they might end up: "Carol", "Suite Francais", "A Most Violent Year" and "Queen of the Desert"...though, if "Queen" is ready and doesn't play Telluride, I'll be stunned.

The post also suggests that Jon Stewart's "Rosewater" seems to be lock for Toronto and unlikely for Telluride.  It also says "The Imitation Game" is likely for TIFF and though they don't specifically rule out Telluride, an early slot for the Benedict Cumberbatch starrer at TIFF would close the door.  Finally, the Playlist Staff suggests that both Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" and Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" are probably headed to Venice which doesn't preclude a Telluride play.  As regular readers of this space know, I'm high on "Birdman's" chances and less bullish on "Vice".

The whole Playlist post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-fall-festival-50-our-wishlist-for-the-venice-telluride-and-toronto-film-festivals-20140630


FOXCATCHER POSTER FEATURES TATUM

It was all over the Twitterverse yesterday.  A new poster for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher" (#6 on last week's "Ten Bets" list) featuring Channing Tatum.  You see it above.  Below are a smattering of the posts from various sources with the poster from yesterday.

Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/new-foxcatcher-poster-puts-channing-tatum-out-front/

Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/channing-tatum-stares-us-first-domestic-foxcatcher-poster/

People:

http://www.people.com/article/channing-tatum-foxcatcher-trailer-photo-steve-carell-mark-ruffalo-oscar-buzz?

IndieWire:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/youll-take-channing-tatum-seriously-in-this-teaser-poster-for-oscar-bait-foxcatcher-20140630

The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/channing-tatum-stares-you-down-in-first-poster-for-bennett-millers-foxcatcher-20140630

FASSBENDER'S WESTERN

"Slow West" photo from Thompson on Hollywood

I have made several mentions of Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" starring Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  I've even suggested that we could have a Cotillard "Twofer" along with "Two Days, One Night".  But Fassbender could be a "Twofer" on his own as well.  Fassbender stars in "Slow West" along with Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road).  Anne Thompson posted a look at the new film and a hint at the outset that it's a likely going to show at either Telluride or Toronto.  Look at Anne's story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/first-look-michael-fassbender-in-frontier-western-slow-west-20140629

Anne points out in the article that the film is produced by the team that was behind "A King's Speech", "Shame" and "Tracks".  It's got both See Saw films and Film4 behind it and both have had a good past relationship with Telluride.  All this leads me to believe that I need to really think about "Slow West" as a very real possibility.

TEASERS AND TRAILERS

Two new view of films that might be in the mix for Telluride.  First, a new trailer for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  I just get more excited every time I see something new about the film.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

And an accompanying story from The Dissolve:

http://thedissolve.com/news/2636-heres-a-terrifying-new-teaser-trailer-for-foxcatch/

Meanwhile, I'm warming to the idea that the latest Bill Murray flick could be in the T-ride mix.  "St. Vincent" stars Murray in full irresponsibility mode as an adult that develops a relationship with an adolescent.  It's in The Weinstein Company wheelhouse and could conceivably be a better shot at Oscar consideration than "Hyde Park on Hudson".  Additionally, I got the feeling that Murray really enjoyed his Telluride visit with "Hyde Park" two years ago.  Here's that trailer also from YouTube:

And, again, an accompanying story from The Dissolve:

http://thedissolve.com/news/2628-bill-murray-makes-the-world-better-in-his-own-way-/

COULD "THE TRIBE" MAKE NOISE IN TELLURIDE?

Alex Billington of FirstShowing.net reports that Drafthouse Films has acquired U.S. distribution for "The Tribe".  The film is told completely with sign language and without subtitles and was quite the buzz producer at Cannes in May.  

Drafthouse was represented at Telluride in 2012 with Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Act of Killing"...By the way, I fully expect Oppenhiemer's sequel to screen at TFF #41, "The Look of Silence".

Here's the link to the Billington post that includes a slightly NSFW trailer:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/see-the-trailer-for-drafthouses-new-cannes-acquisition-the-tribe/

More on Monday...enjoy your weekend!

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The Playlist's Oscar Look for 2014/Sasha's Early Shot/The Atlantic Takes a Dip in the Oscar Pool

Welcome to Monday...

THE PLAYLIST'S OSCAR LOOK FOR 2014

The Playlist posted its "Premature Oscar Picks" just prior to the weekend and it has most of what are becoming the "usual suspects".  All in all, they included 15 films as Oscar possibilities, leading me to, inevitably, to parse them for possible Telluride '14 potentialities.  Among the 15 Playlist selections that might have some T-ride chances:

Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken".  I'm a little bit higher on the chances that this might make a Telluride appearance this week after the "12 Years a Slave" Best Picture Oscar win last week.  I can hear (in my head) Brad telling Angie that Telluride was a big part of the process that led to that Oscar.  Will distributor Universal think that Telluride is a good idea?  Who knows?

Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar".  Friend of the blog Christopher Schiller has said he thinks this could surprise at Telluride and my thinking is that it makes some sense in the context of the success "Gravity" had this year.  I can see it being a BIG SURPRISE at The Zog...Paramount is the distributor and has had some presence in Telluride previously (including Jason Reitman's "Labor Day" this past year).  I'd be very excited were it to happen and I have raised my estimation of the possibility of its appearance at T-ride...but...honestly, it's still a loooong shot.

Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  Things working in favor of thinking it could make this year's lineup:  Miller (Capote in '05 played T-ride) and the distributor Sony Pictures Classics.  Working against:  Like a lot of people, the decision to move it from 2013 to 2014 makes me wonder about quality issues.

J.C. Chandor's "A Most Violent Year".  Despite "All is Lost" not really catching fire as an Oscar contender this year, I got the impression that Chandor loved his experience at Telluride.  A24 is the distributor and though its resume is short, they have had a substantial presence at Telluride the past couple of years.  "Ginger and Rosa" and "Under the Skin".  So this is a real possibility...and it would be very cool to get Oscar Isaac back to T-ride.  Also cool would be an appearance by Jessica Chastain.

Michel Hazanavicius' "The Search"...reason for:  "The Artist" and its run through Telluride on the way to Oscar in 2011.  Hazanavicius was in Telluride for that.  He could well return.  However, IMDb doesn't list a U.S. distributor yet.  The Weinstein Company had "The Artist".

Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice".  This would be a big "get".  Despite whatever happened regarding why "The Master" did not appear at Telluride in 2012...and I heard a number of reasons...there are a couple of reasons that we might see this film in the San Juans...First, it's under the Warner Brothers banner and Warners has stepped up the last couple of years at Telluride with: "Prisoners" and "Gravity" this past year and they had to be pleased with how that played out (despite the loss of the Best Picture Oscar to "12 Years").  Then there was that "Argo" thing in 2012.  That seemed to work out too.  Reason #2:  PTA has been in Telluride previously with the tribute to Daniel Day Lewis and he 20 min. preview of  "There Will Be Blood" (though one of the narratives about why "The Master" didn't play is that PTA wasn't thrilled with the reception that the sneak peak of TWBB received and admittedly I was a part of that reaction as I wasn't bowled over by what I saw...I have, however, recanted many times since as I have often said after having seen the whole film...more than once...that it's a masterpiece and maybe the best film of the 2000's...so PTA...if it's my fault, as unlikely as that might be...mea culpa! and come back!)

David Fincher's "Gone Girl".  Fincher was tributed in 2008 and that included "Zodiac" and a preview of "Benjamin Button" and the fest certainly doesn't shy away from the crime genre, into which this film fits.  Ben Affleck in the lead probably boosts the film's chances of making the T-ride list.  20th Century Fox has the distribution and they had a hand in "12 Years a Slave"...so...maybe...  20th Century Fox also has another possibility that we'll get to (and that could cut either way).

Morten Tyldum's "The Imitation Game".  The Weinstein Company is involved as distributor here and that certainly doesn't close the door...but it's also no guarantee that we'll see his film either.  TWC had "Tracks" and "Salinger" (as a late added Sneak Preview reportedly replacing "Philomena" and I would have been interested to see if the the Oscar race would have been different had "Philomena" shown at Telluride) at last year's TFF.  But TWC's presence at TFF is also kind of spotty.  Still, "The Imitation Game", the story of Brit Alan Turing, who was instrumental in the breaking of Germany's Enigma code but who was then pilloried for his sexuality, is the kind of film that seems tailor made for Telluride.

Jean Marc Vallee's "Wild"...It's produced by Fox Searchlight...so, there's that. The film's description reminds me of the aforementioned "Tracks" and Sean Penn's 2007 TFF film "Into the Wild" but my feeling at the moment is that it's unlikely.

Saul Dibb's "Suite Francaise".  I've periodically mentioned this last year as a Telluride possibility.  It, too, is from TWC.  A World War II film with Michele Williams and Matthias Schoenaerts.  It's a light "maybe".

Tim Burton's "Big Eyes" ...Burton on Colorado Ave., maybe Amy Adams with him ,would be cool.  It's yet another Weinstein film so see above...

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's "Birdman".  This is probably your most solid bet on the list.  Inarritu has played TFF with "Babel" and "Biutiful" and was there this past year in support of Alfonso Cuaron.  "Birdman" is distributed by Fox Searchlight.  I also bet that this plays Cannes...see Cannes note below.  Final note: please bring Michael Keaton and Emma Stone with you.

The Playlist posts some other awards possibilities...you can see the whole thing here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/premature-oscar-predictions-the-2015-best-picture-contenders-20140305

Finally, if any of the above are chosen for Cannes, that increases the chances for a Telluride play.

SASHA'S EARLY SHOT

Over at Awards Daily, Sasha Stone has listed some of the films that she thinks could make Oscar waves this coming year...and you'll see a number of the same films listed.

That post is here:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/most-anticipated-of-2014-or-what-we-talk-about-when-we-talk-about-oscar-predictions/#more-72676

From her notes, what I would add to the films that I have mentioned above is:

"Men, Women and Children" from Jason Reitman.  Reitman has played Telluride with "Juno", "Up in the Air" and last year with "Labor Day".  The first two were well received..."Labor Day's" response was muted. With the"Toronto Ultimatum" in play, you have to wonder which way this film will jump.  As a side note...I am wary of the Adam Sandler casting.


THE ATLANTIC GUESSES TOO

And The Atlantic gets into the act with  a list of Oscar possibles as well.  Here that is:

http://www.theatlantic.com/entertainment/archive/2014/03/the-oscars-in-2015-very-very-early-predictions-for-next-years-awards/284243/

More on Thursday...

12 Years a Slave is Your Best Picture as Telluride Does It Again/The FAC on a Streak/Transition

Welcome to Post Oscar Monday...

12 YEARS WINS BEST PICTURE AND TELLURIDE DOES IT AGAIN.

For the fifth time in the last six years the Telluride Film Festival served as a conduit to the Oscar winner for Best Picture as Steve McQueen's "12 Years a Slave" deservedly won Best Picture last night.  The run has been impressive:

2013-"12 Years a Slave"
2012-"Argo"
2011-"The Artist"
2010-"The King's Speech"
2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"

"The Hurt Locker" won in 2009.

"12 Years" also picked up Oscars for Lupita Nyong'o for Best Supporting Actress and for John Ridley for Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Gravity"...the other "Telluride" film expected to have a good Oscar night...did.  Winning Best Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Original Score for a total of seven Oscars.

That means 10 Oscars for TFF #40 films.  We knew it was a grand year when we were there!

"Dallas Buyers Club" picked up three Oscars: Matthew McConaughey for Best Actor, Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair

"Frozen" wins two: Best Animated Feature and Song.

"The Great Gatsby" won two for Production Design and Costumes.

The other feature winners were Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and Spike Jonze winning for Original Screenplay for "Her".

Night of futility for "American Hustle" which went 0-10.  "Nebraska" 0-6 and "Capt. Phillips" 0-5 and "Wolf of Wall Street" 0-5.

THE FAC ON A HOT STREAK

The normally 75% accurate Film Awards Clearinghouse went 22 of 24 last night...a whopping 92%.  The FAC missed Animated Short calling it for "Get A Horse" and it went to "Mr. Hublot".  The FAC also missed "Her" for Original Screenplay, though, to be fair, I did point out that it was a dead heat.  I just leaned the wrong way.

After the 14 of 15 mark last fall on the final "Ten Bets" list of films that would play the festival...maybe I'm starting to figure this thing out a little bit.

AND THE TRANSITION

And so Oscar #86 is over as is the book on TFF #40.  Michael's Telluride Film Blog returns to its roots over the next month or so as we turn our attention away from what was to what could be on Labor Day weekend in the San Juans some six months from now.

My thanks to Larry and Mitzi Mallard of The River Club in Telluride who have made it possible for my wife and I to attend each year since 2006.

Thanks also to the various members of the media who have been so kind to me over these last few years as I've continued this experiment.

Thanks to my wife, Kristy, for indulging this crazed obsession.

And thanks to all of you who drop in and read these ramblings from time to time.

See you in Telluride on Aug. 29th!

More, as usual, on Thursday.

It's Oscar Morning in America: The Final FAC (Again)/The New Final Predictions and Re-posts of the Final FAC and Actual Experts

Welcome to Oscar Sunday...

Nothing much has changed to my mind since the "final" Film Awards Clearinghouse went up on Thursday. There was some buzz yesterday that The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg had revised his Supporting Actress pick from Jennifer Lawrence to Lupita Nyong'o.  There also seems to be a bit of a groundswell for "The Voorman Problem" in Best Live Action Short over "Helium" which is what The FAC Final had.  But, all in all, I'm staying with what I published on Thursday.

NOTE:  I WILL BE live tweeting, or, more accurately re-tweeting the Oscar results tonight via this account: @Gort2


For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

THE LOCKS

Out of the 24 categories, a dozen Oscars appear to be locked up including three of the four acting trophies.

"Gravity" appears to be solidly in place to win: Best Direction (Alfonso Cuaron), Original Score, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  It's also a player in other categories as you'll read below.

"Dallas Buyers Club" seems to be a lock for three Oscars: Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto) and Best Makeup/Hair.

"Frozen" has a choke hold on two Oscars: Best Animated Feature as well as Best Song for "Let it Go".

The two other locks are Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and "Get a Horse" as Best Animated Short.

BIG LEADS

There are categories that don't look locked but do have strong favorites.

Best Adapted Screenplay, for example, looks very likely to go to "12 Years a Slave" but there is a slight undercurrent that "Philomena" has a chance to sneak in.

Production Design appears likely to go to "The Great Gatsby" despite some sentiment that "Gravity" could win here or Spike Jonze's "Her".

Short Form Documentary is probably going to "The Lady in #6".  

Sound Editing is probable for "Gravity".

AND THE COMPETITIVE CATEGORIES

Eight Oscar categories appear to have serious races going on including the biggest prize, Best Picture.  

Here's the breakdown of those categories:

Best Live Action Short:  The FAC says "Helium" wins in a squeaker but that "The Voorman Problem" and "Just Before Losing Everything" are also possible.

Costumes: It's now a dead heat between "American Hustle" and "The Great Gatsby".  The FAC says it's a tie.  I'm going to break the tie in favor of "Gatsby".

Film Editing:  "Gravity" is the probable winner (says the FAC) but don't be surprised if "Captain Phillips" picks up this Oscar.

Documentary:  The FAC says "20 Feet from Stardom" but it's a tight category with "The Act of Killing" and "The Square" also real possibilities.

Foreign Language Film:  "The Great Beauty" has an edge here (in a late charge) but "The Hunt" or "The Broken Circle Breakdown" could also win.

Original Screenplay:  This is a real race between "Hustle" and "Her".  The FAC points to "Her".  I'm personally thinking "Hustle".

Best Supporting Actress:  "12 Years a Slave's" Lupita Nyong'o maintains a lead in the FAC metric, but Jennifer Lawrence ("Hustle") could steal a second straight Oscar.

AND BEST PICTURE:

The FAC still says "12 Years a Slave" but "Gravity" hasn't faded and I still think "American Hustle" could split the vote and come out on top.

If the FAC is 100% accurate (and it is historically about 75% accurate)...

"Gravity" ends the night with seven Oscars but that could go as high as nine.

"12 Years a Slave" wins three, including Picture.  "12 Years" could also go home empty handed.  It's best shot to add to its total is likely Costumes.

"Dallas Buyers Club" wins three.

"Frozen"  and "Gatsby" win two each.  "American Hustle" and "Blue Jasmine" each win one Oscar.

NEW FINAL PREDICTIONS

Film Misery:

http://www.filmmisery.com/oscar-countdown-best-picture-director/

Film Experience:

http://thefilmexperience.net/blog/2014/2/28/2-days-til-oscar-final-oscar-predictions.html


The Carpetbagger/New York Times:

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/28/movies/awardsseason/the-carpetbaggers-2014-oscar-predictions.html?_r=0

Tomris Laffly/Popcorn Business

http://popcornbusiness.blogspot.com/2014/02/86th-academy-awards-predictions.html

FINALS

I have included links here to the final predictions from Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Variety.  I'll be tweeting and posting additional "Finals" over the next three days.

Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/oscars/2014/predictions/

Variety:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/oscar-predictions-who-will-win-sunday-night-1201121529/

And here's the line from Gold Derby as of this morning:

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/144/

From Movie City News and The Gurus of Gold:

http://moviecitynews.com/2014/02/gurus-o-gold-4/

From HitFix/InContention (Kristopher Tapley, Greg Ellwood and Guy Lodge):

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/hitfixs-final-86th-academy-award-predictions

Deadline Hollywood's Pete Hammond:

http://www.deadline.com/2014/02/oscars-predictions-2014-academy-award-winners-oscars/

Steve Pond from The Wrap:

http://www.thewrap.com/oscar-predictions-gravity-will-biggest-winner-will-win-big-one/

Oliver Lyttleton from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/oscars-the-playlists-final-predictions-for-the-winners-of-the-2014-academy-awards-20140227

Metacritic:

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/oscar-picks-and-preview-2014

Brad Brevet at Rope of Silicon says "12 Years" wins Best Picture.  Take a look at all of his picks here:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/final-2014-oscar-predictions-user-polls/

IndieWire has compiled the choices of over 60 critics and bloggers to produce their version of The FAC/Gurus etc.  Here's a link to that:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/oscars-poll-who-will-win-and-who-should-win-according-to-over-60-critics-and-bloggers

Over at Gold Derby they've posted a story about the Best Picture race and a podcast featuring Tom O'Neil and Tariq Khan.   Those can be seen here:

http://www.goldderby.com/news/5766/oscars-predictions-entertainment-news-852749631.html

http://www.goldderby.com/news/5773/oscars-predictions-predict-entertainment-news-856317249.html