A Look at Mr. Holmes/A Look at Lubezki/Step Right Up

Good Late Thursday morning to everyone...

Today's post is up a little later than usual due to weather issues here in the Great Plains.  Bouncing back today, though.


A LOOK AT MR. HOLMES

After its premiere at the Berlin International Film Festival, the producers/distribs for Bill Condon's "Mr. Holmes" have set a June 19th date to open the film in the U.K. but no U.S. date is set as yet.  I still am hoping/campaigning for it to be a Telluride choice.

At any rate, a teaser/trailer has appeared.  It looks cool.

Here are links to some posts that include the trailer and have additional information:

http://time.com/3733028/mr-holmes-ian-mckellen-sherlock-sherlock-holmes-mitch-cullin/


http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-sherlock-holmes-tackles-an-unsolved-case-in-first-trailer-for-mr-holmes-starring-ian-mckellen-20150304


http://www.hitfix.com/harpy/ian-mckellen-playing-sherlock-holmes-is-the-casting-you-didnt-know-you-needed


A LOOK AT LUBEZKI

The last two Best Cinematography Oscars have gone to Emmanuel Lubezki and both for Telluride films: "Gravity" and "Birdman".

The Playlist, among others, has linked to a Vimeo supercut of the masters work.  It's also cool.  Look here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-breathtaking-supercut-celebrates-the-work-of-cinematographer-emmanuel-lubezki-20150304


STEP RIGHT UP

And perhaps you got this in your email earlier this week:

Join us for the 42nd Telluride Film Festival this Labor Day Weekend Friday, September 4th through Monday, September 7th, 2015.

Our online Box Office opens today Monday, March 2nd, 2015 at 9AM PST. You will need a headshot for your pass at the time of purchase — take the time now to scan that special shot, or better yet take a selfie with your camera phone. Any picture that is a close-up of your face will do.

If filling in information online gives you pause, use our downloadable form to complete your order. Available on our website, simply download the form, fill it out by hand and then mail your check and order form to Festival Headquarters. We'll still need those gorgeous photos.

If you have any questions on the best way to order your pass, or other general inquiries regarding the Festival, give us a call at 510.665.9494.

We are deeply grateful for your generosity and continuous support. Thank you, and see you at the SHOW!

That's right, passes went on sale for TFF #42.  It begins!

Here's the link to the official website for pass info:

http://www.telluridefilmfestival.org/show/passes

That's all for now...more on Monday!

12 Years a Slave is Your Best Picture as Telluride Does It Again/The FAC on a Streak/Transition

Welcome to Post Oscar Monday...

12 YEARS WINS BEST PICTURE AND TELLURIDE DOES IT AGAIN.

For the fifth time in the last six years the Telluride Film Festival served as a conduit to the Oscar winner for Best Picture as Steve McQueen's "12 Years a Slave" deservedly won Best Picture last night.  The run has been impressive:

2013-"12 Years a Slave"
2012-"Argo"
2011-"The Artist"
2010-"The King's Speech"
2008-"Slumdog Millionaire"

"The Hurt Locker" won in 2009.

"12 Years" also picked up Oscars for Lupita Nyong'o for Best Supporting Actress and for John Ridley for Best Adapted Screenplay.

"Gravity"...the other "Telluride" film expected to have a good Oscar night...did.  Winning Best Director, Film Editing, Cinematography, Visual Effects, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and Original Score for a total of seven Oscars.

That means 10 Oscars for TFF #40 films.  We knew it was a grand year when we were there!

"Dallas Buyers Club" picked up three Oscars: Matthew McConaughey for Best Actor, Jared Leto for Supporting Actor and Makeup/Hair

"Frozen" wins two: Best Animated Feature and Song.

"The Great Gatsby" won two for Production Design and Costumes.

The other feature winners were Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and Spike Jonze winning for Original Screenplay for "Her".

Night of futility for "American Hustle" which went 0-10.  "Nebraska" 0-6 and "Capt. Phillips" 0-5 and "Wolf of Wall Street" 0-5.

THE FAC ON A HOT STREAK

The normally 75% accurate Film Awards Clearinghouse went 22 of 24 last night...a whopping 92%.  The FAC missed Animated Short calling it for "Get A Horse" and it went to "Mr. Hublot".  The FAC also missed "Her" for Original Screenplay, though, to be fair, I did point out that it was a dead heat.  I just leaned the wrong way.

After the 14 of 15 mark last fall on the final "Ten Bets" list of films that would play the festival...maybe I'm starting to figure this thing out a little bit.

AND THE TRANSITION

And so Oscar #86 is over as is the book on TFF #40.  Michael's Telluride Film Blog returns to its roots over the next month or so as we turn our attention away from what was to what could be on Labor Day weekend in the San Juans some six months from now.

My thanks to Larry and Mitzi Mallard of The River Club in Telluride who have made it possible for my wife and I to attend each year since 2006.

Thanks also to the various members of the media who have been so kind to me over these last few years as I've continued this experiment.

Thanks to my wife, Kristy, for indulging this crazed obsession.

And thanks to all of you who drop in and read these ramblings from time to time.

See you in Telluride on Aug. 29th!

More, as usual, on Thursday.

The (Mostly) Final FAC (Film Awards Clearinghouse) Oscar Predictions/Finals

Welcome to Thursday...

THE FINAL FAC...MOSTLY

Well, it's been nearly six months since The CEO and I rolled into Telluride for their 40th Film Festival.  That weekend, as I fully expected, got the Oscar ball rolling toward its 86th iteration.  At the end of that glorious weekend, I think everyone knew that "Gravity" and "12 Years a Slave" were serious players and that "Nebraska" might be.  There were also lofty expectations for "Inside Llewyn Davis" and "All is Lost" which never really fully materialized.

It all comes to a conclusion on Sunday night with the presentation of 24 Oscars, 21 in feature categories and three in Shorts categories.

Here's the Film Awards Clearinghouse's final take on what should/could go down on Sunday night though I might post an update or two before the ceremony actually begins.

For this set of predictions I have consulted the publicly posted picks from:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Peter Knegt/IndieWire
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

THE LOCKS

Out of the 24 categories, a dozen Oscars appear to be locked up including three of the four acting trophies.

"Gravity" appears to be solidly in place to win: Best Direction (Alfonso Cuaron), Original Score, Cinematography, Sound Mixing and Visual Effects.  It's also a player in other categories as you'll read below.

"Dallas Buyers Club" seems to be a lock for three Oscars: Best Actor (Matthew McConaughey), Best Supporting Actor (Jared Leto) and Best Makeup/Hair.

"Frozen" has a choke hold on two Oscars: Best Animated Feature as well as Best Song for "Let it Go".

The two other locks are Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for "Blue Jasmine" and "Get a Horse" as Best Animated Short.

BIG LEADS

There are categories that don't look locked but do have strong favorites.

Best Adapted Screenplay, for example, looks very likely to go to "12 Years a Slave" but there is a slight undercurrent that "Philomena" has a chance to sneak in.

Production Design appears likely to go to "The Great Gatsby" despite some sentiment that "Gravity" could win here or Spike Jonze's "Her".

Short Form Documentary is probably going to "The Lady in #6".  

Sound Editing is probable for "Gravity".

AND THE COMPETITIVE CATEGORIES

Eight Oscar categories appear to have serious races going on including the biggest prize, Best Picture.  

Here's the breakdown of those categories:

Best Live Action Short:  The FAC says "Helium" wins in a squeaker but that "The Voorman Problem" and "Just Before Losing Everything" are also possible.

Costumes: It's now a dead heat between "American Hustle" and "The Great Gatsby".  The FAC says it's a tie.  I'm going to break the tie in favor of "Gatsby".

Film Editing:  "Gravity" is the probable winner (says the FAC) but don't be surprised if "Captain Phillips" picks up this Oscar.

Documentary:  The FAC says "20 Feet from Stardom" but it's a tight category with "The Act of Killing" and "The Square" also real possibilities.

Foreign Language Film:  "The Great Beauty" has an edge here (in a late charge) but "The Hunt" or "The Broken Circle Breakdown" could also win.

Original Screenplay:  This is a real race between "Hustle" and "Her".  The FAC points to "Her".  I'm personally thinking "Hustle".

Best Supporting Actress:  "12 Years a Slave's" Lupita Nyong'o maintains a lead in the FAC metric, but Jennifer Lawrence ("Hustle") could steal a second straight Oscar.

AND BEST PICTURE:

The FAC still says "12 Years a Slave" but "Gravity" hasn't faded and I still think "American Hustle" could split the vote and come out on top.

If the FAC is 100% accurate (and it is historically about 75% accurate)...

"Gravity" ends the night with seven Oscars but that could go as high as nine.

"12 Years a Slave" wins three, including Picture.  "12 Years" could also go home empty handed.  It's best shot to add to its total is likely Costumes.

"Dallas Buyers Club" wins three.

"Frozen"  and "Gatsby" win two each.  "American Hustle" and "Blue Jasmine" each win one Oscar.

FINALS

I have included links here to the final predictions from Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter and Variety.  I'll be tweeting and posting additional "Finals" over the next three days.

Feinberg:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/awards/oscars/2014/predictions/

Variety:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/oscar-predictions-who-will-win-sunday-night-1201121529/

And here's the line from Gold Derby as of this morning:

http://www.goldderby.com/odds/experts/144/

More...maybe tomorrow...

Philip Seymour Hoffman/More Toronto Ultimatum Coverage/Nebraska Notes/Gravity Goodies/12 Years Tidbit

PHILIP SEYMOUR HOFFMAN

I don't know where to start.  I hate this.  Philip Seymour Hoffman is dead at 46.  News reports have said heroin overdose is the cause.

We found out early yesterday afternoon...and it made me physically ill.  Angry, sad.

He was so talented and had such range and at 46 had had enough of a career so that we knew how special he was.  That also means that we can know that we've lost another three or four decades of great work from him.

He was branching out...moving into directing and producing.  I was excited to see how those choices played out.  My thinking: a guy this talented might really be able to bring that same spark to every endeavor he undertook.

His body of work is breath taking...I think I really first noticed him in 1992's "Scent of a Woman" playing Chris O'Donnell's feckless classmate.  For the next few years, he'd continue to pop up in some things...then "Boogie Nights" in 1997 and it was game on:

"The Big Lebowski"
"Happiness"
"Magnolia"...dear God, he's good in this...
"The Talented Mr. Ripley"
"State and Main"
"Almost Famous"...dear God, he's good in this...
"Red Dragon"...an excellent Freddy Lounds...not a nice guy
"Cold Mountain"
"Capote"...dear God...you get it.  (Wins the Oscar after having it play in Telluride with PSH in attendance).
"The Savages"  ditto
"Charlie Wilson's War"  best thing in the flick
"Synechdoche, NY"
"Doubt"
"Moneyball"
"The Master"

all this and more and he was 46...

Two things...

I've always thought his career was one you could point to and tell kids (after all I teach high school kids drama) "Here's a guy that proves that talent CAN get noticed, be rewarded and provide a career".

And on a completely selfish level, he was always one of the people on the list I carry in my head that I thought I might actually get to shake hands with on Colorado Ave. in Telluride or at the Patron Brunch. There are some people I'd like to say "thank you" to for the things that they've created that have been meaningful to me.  Because of the fest and the type of projects that PSH has done, I've always harbored the notion that I might be able to say that in person someday...

Not now...




MORE TORONTO ULTIMATUM COVERAGE

I have added a couple of pother posts/articles concerning the announcement for the Toronto Film Festival about their new policy regarding "premieres" and the programming of new films beginning with this year's festival.  As noted last Thursday, the new policy is clearly aimed at Telluride in an attempt to curb the choice of film makers and distributors to play Telluride first and then Toronto after TIFF has billed a film as a World or North American premiere.

From The Toronto Star:

http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/2014/01/30/why_tiff_had_to_get_tough_over_film_premieres.html

Business Week:

http://www.businessweek.com/ap/2014-01-30/toronto-film-fest-insists-on-premieres

The Globe and Mail:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/arts/film/tiff-unveils-new-policy-aimed-at-clinching-premiere-status/article16605658/

At this point, the only response that I've seen from the Telluride camp is a Variety story from last week by Dave McNary that quotes TFF Exec. Director Julie Huntsinger saying, essentially, that TFF will continue to do its thing.  I've re-posted the link to that story here:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/telluride-film-festival-wont-back-down-from-sneak-preview-premieres-1201076983/


NEBRASKA NOTES

Alexander Payne's "Nebraska is nominated for six Academy Awards: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  It'll likely win none on Mar. 2.  It's best shot might be Bob Nelson's screenplay but "Her" or "American Hustle" are more likely.  There's maybe an outside shot for Bruce Dern to surprise as Best Actor...but that's very likely Matthew McConaughey's to lose and Chiwetel Ejiofor (12 Years a Slave) is a more likely spoiler.  Nevertheless, "Nebraska" continues to be among the best reviewed films of the year (currently sitting at #10 on Metacritic for 2013 http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-critic-top-10-lists-best-movies-of-2013 ) and it was #3 for me on my TFF #40 list of films (led by 12 Years and Llewyn Davis).

The "Nebraska" crew is keeping the Oscar fires alight however with a number of posts appearing within the last couple of weeks.  I have included a few here:

Deadline.com interviews Alexander Payne:

http://www.deadline.com/2013/12/oscars-alexander-payne-nebraska-interview/

The Carpetbagger/New York Times talks to Oscar nominee June Squibb:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/20/video-the-roots-of-nebraskas-feisty-wife/

The Hollywood Reporter talks to Nebraska score composer Mark Orton:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/how-nebraskas-composer-wrote-americana-676067


GRAVITY GOODIES

A month from now you can count on hearing this and reading this in any number of places:  "Winner of the most Oscars for 2013, 'Gravity"..." ; because that will be a true statement.  We still don't know what the exact number of Oscars will be for the Alfonso Cuaron film, but it'll be somewhere between  five and nine. Currently I'm thinking seven.

Variety recently posted this video with "Gravity" Oscar nominees Sandra Bullock and Alfonso Cuaron:

http://variety.com/video/oscars-qa-sandra-bullock-and-director-alfonso-cuaron-video/

And I have included a featurette fromHitFix highlighting both Alfonso and Jonas Cuaron talking about story and screenplay here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/new-gravity-featurette-focuses-on-story-and-screenplay


12 YEARS TIDBIT

And here is a lengthy discussion with Steve McQueen about his masterpiece "12 Years a Slave" and other topics from The Walker Art Center and posted by The Playlist here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/watch-extensive-2-hour-talk-with-steve-mcqueen-about-12-years-a-slave-his-filmography-art-more-20140131



More on Thursday...

Rudderless Rising/Cuaron Wins the DGA/Lupita Interview/TFF #41 and J.C. Chandor?/Making it in the Big Leagues

Welcome to Monday!

RUDDERLESS RISING

Standing ovation for William H. Macy's "Rudderless" at The Sundance Film Festival this past weekend.

Sundance's closing premiere, "Rudderless" premiered for Sundance audiences Friday night to a standing ovation.  The film was screened a second time on Sunday morning...also a standing ovation.  I have read half a dozen reviews of the film and five of the six range from good to ecstatic.  Variety is the one review that wasn't impressed with the film written by Casey Twenter and Jeff Robison and shot in Oklahoma last spring.

I am including links to reviews from The Hollywood Reporter, /Film, HitFix, The Playlist and WeLiveFilm:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/review/rudderless-sundance-review-674066

http://www.slashfilm.com/william-h-macys-directorial-debut-rudderless-is-a-tale-of-two-half-notes-sundance-14-review/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/sundance-review-rudderless-is-a-remarkable-directorial-debut-from-william-h-macy-20140124

http://welivefilm.com/sundance-2014-rudderless-review-moviemanmenzel/

There are plenty of blurb-worthy quotes to chose from and that you can expect to see in future marketing for the film.  As to The Variety review, I'm an unrepentant fan of the film...so you can google it yourself if you want to read it.

If you have seen other reviews of the film, please drop me a note via the comments and I'll post those as well.

In other Sundance news, the biggest prize winner in the competition section was for "Whiplash" which opened the festival.  The film stars Miles Teller and J.K. Simmons and was written and directed by Damien Chazelle and focuses on the world of music...in this case drumming.  "Whiplash" won the top dramatic prize and the audience award both on Saturday night.


CUARON WINS THE DGA

Also on Saturday night...late Saturday night, the Directors Guild of America named Alfonso Cuaron the best feature film director of the year for "Gravity".  That solidifies the thinking that he will likely win the Oscar for the same feat and also boosts the chance that "Gravity" wins Best Picture on Oscar night.

It will be interesting to see how much the DGA win moves the tone of the Oscar pundits.  Over the last week the very strong popular narrative has been that "12 Years a Slave" would win Best Picture and tat Cuaron would win Best Director.  After the PGA tie between the two films last week, there was also a lot of discussion about what effect the DGA winner might have.

Though a split between Best Picture and Best Director is rare, it does happen.  It happened last year when Ang Lee won directing for "Life of Pi" and "Argo" won Best Picture.

Lost i the shuffle, at least a little bit over the past week has been "American Hustle" which looked like a house on fire after the SAG and Golden Globes and also after nomination morning when it co-lead the field (along with "Gravity") with 10 nominations.  I personally don't think you can completely write off its chances of winning Best Picture as it seems to have a lot of love from actors and that's the largest branch, by far, of the Academy's membership.

I also have to say that a real left field surprise could happen too.  I can see these three top films splitting #1 votes enough to allow a "compromise" candidate to emerge victorious.  Some of the Oscar elite think that could be "Philomena".  My "surprise" winner is "Dallas Buyers Club".  It's likely winning at least statues on Oscar night for Best Actor and Supporting Actor (McConaughey and Leto).  In addition to Best Picture, it has two other important nominations: Best Original Screenplay and Best Film Editing.  It also has a nomination for Makeup/Hair.  It also appears to be adored by the actors.  I'm telling you that if had scored a Best Direction nomination, it would be a serious part of the conversation.

The other "surprise" possibility: Alexander Payne's "Nebraska".  It even has a Best Directing nomination.  It's weakness is that it will likely not win a single Oscar that it's nominated for.  In addition to Best Picture and Direction; it's nominated for Actor (Bruce Dern), Supporting Actress (June Squibb), Original Screenplay and Cinematography.  I think that had it picked up an Editing nomination, it might be a bigger topic of conversation as well.

Bottom line...I'm still of a mind that "12 Years" wins Best Picture but I have to accede to the dominant thinking at this point.   Up until Saturday night, I had still thought that Steve McQueen would win Best Director come Oscar night (and that could still happen...DGA and Oscar don't always agree on Direction) but too much points to Cuaron winning Best Director.  It seems the split is likely or even that "Gravity" may have a near "Titanic"/"Lord of the Rings; Return of the King" type night.

LUPITA INTERVIEW

Oscar nominated for "12 Years a Slave" (and perhaps a slight front runner), Lupita N'yong'o, spoke recently to The Carpetbagger/The New York Times.  Here's that interview:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2014/01/23/video-lupita-nyongo/

TFF #41 AND J.C. CHANDOR?

A24 films have acquired the rights to writer/director J.C. Chandor's third feature: "A Most Violent Year". The film stars Oscar Isaac and Jessica Chastain.  I think it has a real chance to play at Telluirde #41 this Labor Day.  Reasons:  I spoke briefly last to both Chandor and Isaac at last year's festival, and both men seem to be having a great time.  Additionally, A24 has emerged as an occasional presence at Telluride with films playing as a part of the program in 2012 with "Ginger and Rosa' and last year with "Under the Skin".

Biggest reason that it might not play TFF #41...it hasn't started shooting yet.


MAKING IT IN THE BIG LEAGUES

This is completely unnecessary, but...

As you might expect, The Telluride Film Festival has official photographers and videographers.  I have to admit that I've always hoped that somehow, Kris and I might find ourselves in one of their shots someday.   You know, sort of as tangible proof to the rest of the world (and maybe even to ourselves) that we were actually there. The Fest puts out an annual Yearbook, there are certainly a ton of pictures from the fest as it's going on but it's never happened.  Until this year.

I was perusing the Fest's website recently and trolling through the official photos when I found this one from the Patron's Brunch:

Ostensibly this is a photo of past Guest directors Michal Ondaatje (author of "The English Patient") and Salman Rushdie author of "The Satanic Verses").  If you look at the background, to the left of Rushdie, you can see me standing (dressed in blue)  and looking out over the crowd.  Kris is blocked by the very nice woman in the salmon shirt (not Salman-ha!).  She's the artist who makes the medallions each years for the tributees.

Yes, that's really me behind Ondaatje and Rushdie...and I'm looking at a crowd that included Robert Redford, Francis Ford Coppola, Bruce Dern, The Coen Brothers, T.Bone Burnett and others. 

Objective photographic evidence my friends...I guess it really did happen.

More on Thursday...

The Film Awards Clearinghouse-Oscar 2014 Predictions/Rudderless Sets Sail

Welcome to Thursday!

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE-OSCAR WINNING PREDICTIONS

Well, we all know what the nominees are.  Now begins the nearly six week long process of determining Oscar winners.  The ceremony is set for Mar. 2nd (particularly late this year, reportedly to avoid conflicting with the presentation of the Winter Olympics).  Final ballots don't even go out until the middle of February.

All of that is to get to this...a first look at who or what the experts think the winners will be on Mar. 2nd.

For this first pass at predicting Oscars winners, I have drawn on six of the nine experts I have used throughout the season.  This is for a variety of reasons.  Of the three experts I usually use, some haven't updated their predictions yet or are predicting only in a limited fashion.  So, the six experts that I have used to calibrate this first set of Oscar winner predictions are:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/HitFix-InContention
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Films/actors are listed in order of the likelihood that they will win that category.  I also am focused on 13 categories with the majority of the technical and shorts categories on hold for the moment.

Telluride Films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) American Hustle
2) 12 Years a Slave
3) Gravity
4) Captain Phillips
5) Nebraska
6) The wolf of Wall Street
7) Philomena
8) Dallas Buyers Club
9) Her

Comment:  Best Picture is perceived to be a real barn burner.  In raw numbers "Hustle" and "12 Years" were actually tied.  "Hustle" edged into the top spot on a tie breaker.  "Gravity" is also very, very close.  Personally, I still think "12 Years a Slave" is going to win the Best Picture Oscar.  You can also find someone as an advocate for the potential "spoiler" scenarios for almost every one of the other six films nominated.  My personal "left field" pick is "Dallas Buyers Club".  Its Film Editing nomination as well as its likely win in two acting categories tells me that the Academy really loves this film.

DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity
2) David O. Russell/American Hustle
3) Steve McQueen/12 Years a Slave
4) Martin Scorsese/The Wolf of Wall Street
5) Alexander Payne/Nebraska

Comment: This group of experts is pretty convinced that there will be a split between Best Picture and Best Direction for the second straight year.  I'm not as convinced.  I still think that there's a reasonable chance that McQueen wins.  The DGA winner may point us to the eventual Oscar winner, but I don't even think that's carved in stone.

Last note, I might be okay with Cuaron winning this instead of McQueen.  Putting "Gravity" together is an impressive feat.

ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity
3) Amy Adams/American Hustle
4) Judi Dench/Philomena
5) Meryl Streep/August: Osage County

Comment: Blanchett is the first of six nominees that are unanimous choices in their categories at this point. She's the very definition of a prohibitive favorite.  At this point, anyone else winning this category on Oscar night would rank as an historic upset.

ACTOR

1) Matthew McConaughey/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave
3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska
4) Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf if Wall Street
5) Christian Bale/American Hustle

Comment: McConaughey is a strong favorite here, but it's not unanimous.  There's a significant amount of support for Ejiofor and a Bruce Dern win isn't completely out of the question.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave
2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle
3) June Squibb/Nebraska
4) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine
5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County

Comment:  I'm more than a little surprised that Nyong'o is a unanimous favorite in this category.  All six of my experts say she'll win.  Frankly, I think that it's a lot closer than that between her and Lawrence.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club
2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave
3) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle
4) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips
5) Jonah Hill/American Hustle

Comment: Leto is the unanimous choice here.  Any other winner would be a shock.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) American Hustle
2) Her
3) Nebraska
4) Blue Jasmine
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment:  This is a pretty tough category between the top three screenplays.  On Oscar night, I think that this might actually be the only Oscar that "Hustle" wins.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) 12 Years a Slave
2) Philomena
3) The Wolf of Wall Street
4) Captain Phillips
5) Before Midnight

Comment: John Ridley's "12 Years a Slave" script is the unanimous choice to win this category.

FILM EDITING

1) Gravity
2) American Hustle
3) 12 Years a Slave
4) Captain Phillips
5) Dallas Buyers Club

Comment: "Gravity" isn't a unanimous choice, but it's pretty close.

CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Gravity
2) Inside Llewyn Davis
3) Nebraska
4) Prisoners
5) The Grandmaster

Comment: "Gravity" is a unanimous choice.

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) The Hunt (TFF #39)
2) The Great Beauty
3) The Broken Circle Breakdown
4) Omar
5) The Missing Picture

Comment:  Any of the top three could win.  The category is very, very tight.

ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Frozen
2) The Wind Rises
3) The Croods
4) Despicable Me 2
5) Ernest and Celestine

Comment: "Frozen" is the sixth film in these 13 categories that is a unanimous pick to win.

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) 20 Feet from Stardom
2) The Act of Killing (TFF #39)
3) The Square
4) Dirty Wars
5) Cutie and the Boxer

Comment:  "20 Feet" is a strong favorite.

The FAC says (in these 13 categories) that  "Gravity" wins three, "12 Years" wins two,  "American Hustle" wins two, "Dallas Buyers Club" wins two.

Should The FAC have this right (and remember , we're still over a month away) Telluride films pick up five Oscars in these thirteen categories and I think "Slave" beats "Hustle" for the sixth.  Also, a win for "The Hunt" makes it another T-ride Oscar albeit from TFF #39.

RUDDERLESS SETS SAIL

Well, it is finally upon us.  Oklahoma generated film "Rudderless" closes The Sundance Film Festival tomorrow night.  It's been awhile in coming.  I've been talking about it, off and on, for almost four years.  I met co-author Casey Twenter in Kansas City in the summer of 2010 after we had been emailing for a number of months.  Casey had contacted me because he'd found the blog and was interested in Telluride. Over the years, I've been privileged to read two different versions of the script and follow, at a distance, the ups and downs along the way.  It's been a hell of a ride.  There have been a number of incarnations featuring different directing, producing and acting possibilities...stuff I really can't write about.

I am very happy for Casey and his writing partner Jeff Robison who were fortunate to have William H. Macy fall in love with the script.  I'll tell you, that fortune is only a small part of the story.  It was always a good script and Macy is fortunate to have had it fall into his lap and recognize the quality.

"Rudderless" has actually already screened for industry types and the first word is oozing out of corners (including an actual review at /Film (Slashfilm).  The "early ooze" seems pretty positive.

/Film review:

Here's  sample of some of the commentary from the review by /Film writer Germain Lussier:

"Rudderless...a complex story of love, loss, friendship and music"

"it's a touching movie with a fantastic lead performance and even better music."

"Macy is in control of our emotions"

"There is a lot to like about Rudderless"

I have friends who, I think, thought I was putting them on at times over these last four years; who didn't believe that the project existed, took place in Oklahoma, would ever make it in front of cameras or would find its way to a theater.  Well, tomorrow night in Park City, Utah, all those doubts will be put to rest.

I'll be anxiously awaiting to see the critical response and to see what distribution outfit picks the film up...come on TWC, Fox Searchlight and SPC.

Congratulations Casey and Jeff...you dreamed it and it's about to happen!  On behalf of all of us on the fringe of the film business and who harbor dreams of being a little less on the fringe, thanks!  "Rudderless" gives us all hope!

Finally, a note to Gary Meyer, Julie Huntsinger and Telluride programmers...I know that the Sundance/Telluride crossover film is very rare (seems like it happens about once every five years or so) and the last one was "An Education" (2009)...so, if the eventual distributor hasn't already released this film by Labor Day...TFF #41?  Give it a thought.

More on Monday...have a good weekend!

Golden Globes 2014/The FAC Vol. 5B (abridged)/IndieWire's 2014 List and Telluride

Good Monday Campers!

GOLDEN GLOBES 2014

The Hollywood Foreign Press Association handed out their Golden Globes last night.  There are 14 film categories.

Telluride #40 films won 3 Globes:

"12 Years a Slave" for Best Drama", Alfonso Cuaron for Best Direction for "Gravity" and Alex Ebert for Best Score for "All is Lost".

The biggest winner of the night was David O. Russell's "American Hustle" which won three Globes: Best Comedy/Musical, Best Actress (Comedy/Musical)-Amy Adams and Best Supporting Actress-Jennifer Lawrence.

"Dallas Buyers Club" was named twice in acting categories.  Matthew McConnaughey won for Best Actor (Drama) and Jared Leto won for Best Supporting Actor.

Other awards went to:

Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine-Best Actress (Drama)
Leonardo DiCaprio/The Wolf of Wall Street-Best Actor (Comedy/Musical)
Spike Jonze/Her-Best Screenplay
"Ordinary Love"/Mandela: Long Walk to Freedom- Best Song
"The Great Beauty" Best Foreign Language Film
"Frozen" Best Animated Film

Although they had multiple nominations neither "Nebraska" (5 noms) nor "Inside Llewyn Davis (3 noms) could break into the winners circle.

Also, oddly, the Foreign Language category only had one nominee that was unrelated to Telluride and it won: "The Great Beauty".

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL. 5B (abridged)



I had claimed last week that today's post would include updates of where Oscar predictors are in terms of six categories: Makeup/Hair, Costumes, Sound Mixing, Sound Editing and the three categories devoted to short form film making.

And that's not going to happen.

First, the Makeup/Hair list won't change until Thursday morning's nomination announcement as the Academy had already named the nine films that are short listed from which the nominees must be chosen.

Additionally, I had thought/hoped that there would be more predictions for the Short Form categories (Live Action, Documentary and Animation) from the nine Oscar experts that I peruse, but alas, only two of them have weighed in on those categories so far.  I am hoping that they will all make some predictions for these categories before Wednesday and I will try to include that collation before nominations are announced on Thursday morning.

That being said, here's the update for Costumes, Sound Mixing and Sound Editing.

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

COSTUMES

1) 12 Years a Slave (1)
2) The Great Gatsby (3)
3) American Hustle (2)
4) Saving Mr. Banks (4)
5) The Invisible Woman (7)
6) Inside Llewyn Davis (5)
7) Lee Daniels' The Butler (6)
8) Oz The Great and Terrible (9)
9) Hunger Games: Catching Fire (10)
10) The Hobbit: Smaug (8)

Comment:   No film dropped away but "Invisible Woman" made a significant move into the fifth slot.  "Llewyn's" prospects may have dimmed slightly due to the perception that the film is in some Oscar trouble overall.  The 1-4 spots seem solid but #5 looks like it'll be close.

SOUND EDITING

1) Gravity (1)
2) Captain Phillips (2)
3) Rush (3)
4) All is Lost (4)
5) The Lone Ranger (5)
6) Iron Man 3 (6)
7) Pacific Rim (7)
8) Man of Steel (8)
9) World War Z (New)
10) Star Trek Into Darkness (9)

Dropping Out: Oblivion.

Comment:  A remarkably stable category with the 1-8 spots unmoving.  At this point, "Gravity" is the only sure nomination with "Captain Phillips" a near lock.


SOUND MIXING

1) Gravity (1)
2) Rush (2)
3) Inside Llewyn Davis (5)
4) All is Lost (4)
5) Captain Phillips (3)
6) 12 Years a Slave (6)
7) The Lone Ranger (7)
8) The Hobbit: Smaug (9)
9) Frozen (New)
10) Man of Steel (8)

Dropping Out: Pacific Rim

Comment:  The one place on the charts where "Llewyn" actually picked up ground.  "Gravity", again, is a lock.  Spots 2-4 are probable.

And a reminder of the seven film short list for Best Makeup/Hair:

American Hustle
Bad Grandpa
The Lone Ranger
The Great Gatsby
Dallas Buyers Club
The Hunger Games: Catching Fire
Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Among these categories TFF #40 films (assuming The FAC was 100% correct) would account for 7 nominations and another 2 possibilities.

 INDIEWIRE'S 2014 LIST AND TELLURIDE

IndieWire was up this week with their list of independent films that they have the greatest desire to see in 2014 and, of course, I have parsed it for the most likely TFF #41 titles.  The post is entitled : "50 Indie Films IndieWire Wants to See in 2014"

IndieWire listed the films alphabetically, so I will too.  Among the 50 listed, here are the films they mention that, in my view and at this time, have the greatest likelihood of playing TFF #41:

"Birdman"- Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's comedy starring Michael Keaton.  Fox Searchlight is producing and distributing.

"Carol"- Todd Haynes directs Cate Blanchett as an older woman who falls for a younger woman played by Rooney Mara.  The Weinstein Company is distributing and Film4 is among the producing partners.

"Every Thing Will Be Fine"- Wim Wenders directs James Franco who is haunted by a death he accidentally causes.

"Far From the Madding Crowd"-Thomas Vinterberg directs Carey Mulligan and Matthias Schoenaerts in the adaptation of the Thomas Hardy classic. Fox Searchlight is listed as a producing company by IMDb.  They'll probably distribute in the U.S. as well.

"Foxcatcher"-Bennett Miller directs Steve Carell, Channing Tatum and Mark Ruffalo in this true story of Olympic wrestling hopes that go disasterously wrong.  I had this on the 2013 Telluride watch list for much of last year until it was pulled from the potential fall schedule.  It's back on this year as the speculation is that it is  now a likely awards player this year.  Sony Pictures Classics is distributing.

"Maps to the Stars"  David Cronenberg directing Robert Pattinson (again).  I'm back and forth on its Telluride chances.  It sounds intriguing but so did "Cosmopolis" and "A Dangerous Method" neither of which set the world on fire.  I expect it will play Cannes and the reaction there might well determine its Telluride potential.

"Mr. Turner"-Mike Leigh's project about English artist J.M.W. Turner.  Sony Pictures Classics is distributing and many of the producing companies have Telluride history.  This might be the surest TFF #41 bet of all the possible films on this list.

"Suite Francaise"-Saul Dibb directs this story of WWII french occupation and an unlikely love story.  Michelle Williams and the red hot Margot Robbie (Wolf of Wall Street) star.  The Weinstein's are distributing.

"While We're Young"-one of two Naoh Baumbach projects that might pop up at Telluride (the other didn't make the IndieWire list, but it's just as likely to be at TFF #41 as this).  The film stars Ben Stiller, Amanda Seyfried and Naomi Watts.

The complete IndieWire list can be found here:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/the-50-indies-indiewire-most-wants-to-see-in-2014


More tomorrow.

The Film Awards Clearinghouse 2014 Vol. 5-The Major Categories/HitFix's 25 "Prestige" 2014 Titles/McQueen and Cuaron

Good Monday Everybody...

I'm back to the "real world" today as classes resume and I start the second semester for this academic year. It's going to get busy!

Nevertheless, MTFB goes on as scheduled beginning with an update of Oscar predictions from The Film Awards Clearinghouse for the six major categories.

THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE VOL.5-MAJOR CATEGORIES

I use the publicly posted predictions of these Oscar experts as the metric for The FAC:

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kris Tapley/HitFix-InContention

Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

Peter Knegt/IndieWire

Alex Carlson/Film Misery

Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit

Brad Brevet/Rope of Silicon

The films position on the last FAC is in parenthesis.  Telluride #40 films are Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) 12 Years A Slave (1)
2) Gravity (2)
3) American Hustle (3)
4) Nebraska (4)
5) Captain Phillips (5)
6) Wolf of Wall Street (6)
7) Inside Llewyn Davis (8)
8) Saving Mr. Banks (7)
9) Her (9)
10) Dallas Buyers Club (10)
11) Lee Daniels' The Butler (12)
12) Philomena (11)
13) Blue Jasmine (14)
14) August: Osage County (15)
15) Fruitvale Station (13)

Comment:  No film drops out from our last look at this category and there hasn't been drastic movement.  Clearly the news of this past week's snubs of "Inside Llewyn Davis" by the Producers Guild and the Writers Guild hasn't filtered into the predictions of the nine Oscar Experts that I use to put together the FAC.  I suspect that it will in the next week or so.  The Directors Guild announcement tomorrow may be "Llewyn's" last best chance to pull out a Best Picture nomination.

On the other hand, I have a theory that "Llewyn" may be exactly that kind of picture that may not engender love from all over the various parts of the 6,000 Academy members, but may have enough passionate supporters to get it a Best Picture nomination irrespective of what the Guilds have been saying.  As a number of Oscar bloggers have pointed out, if a film can get 300 #1 votes, it's a nominee and it doesn't much matter what the other 5,700+ Academy members think.  That's universally assumed to be the explanation for the Best Picture nomination for "Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close" a couple of years ago.

It's wroth thinking about.

It's also worth noting that the nomination ballot deadline is Wednesday.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Gravity (1)
2) Steve McQueen/12 Years a  Slave (2)
3) David O. Russell/American Hustle (5)
4) Paul Greengrass/Captain Phillips (3)
5) Martin Scorsese/Wolf of Wall Street (4)
6) Alexander Payne/Nebraska (6)
7) Joel and Ethan Coen/Inside Llewyn Davis (7)
8) Spike Jonze/Her (8)
9) John Lee Hancock/Saving Mr. Banks (9)
10) Lee Daniels/Lee Daniels' The Butler (10)

Comment: Russell makes a substantial move.  I think the Scorsese and Greengrass support may be soft which likely opens the door for Payne.  Coens need some DGA help tomorrow.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/Blue Jasmine (1)
2) Sandra Bullock/Gravity (2)
3) Emma Thompson/Saving Mr. Banks (3)
4) Judi Dench/Philomena (4)
5) Meryl Streep/August:Osage County (5)
6) Amy Adams/American Hustle (6)
7) Brie Larson/Short Term 12 (7)
8) Adele Exarchopolous/Blue is the Warmest Color (8)

9) Kate Winslet/Labor Day (9)

10) Julie Delpy/Before Midnight (10)

Comment:  Is there a little softening in the notion that Meryl Streep's nomination is a lock?  In a category that has been remarkably consistent for months, that seems to be the only suspense at this point.  

Additionally, Blanchett has been on top (way on top) in EVERY FAC.  She gets a perfect score on The FAC metric again this time around (as do the leaders in both Supporting categories in this edition of The FAC).

BEST ACTOR

1) Chiwetel Ejiofor/12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Matthew McConnaughey/Dallas Buyers Club (3)

3) Bruce Dern/Nebraska (2)

4) Tom Hanks/Captain Phillips (5)

5) Robert Redford/All is Lost (4)

6) Leonardo DiCaprio/Wolf of Wall Street (7)

7) Forest Whitaker/Lee Daniels' The Butler (6)

8) Christian Bale/American Hustle (8)

9) Oscar Isaac/Inside Llewyn Davis (9)

10) Michael B. Jordan/Fruitvale Station (10)

Comment:  Redford's spot seems to still be shaky and although the latest number crunching suggests that DiCaprio is the most likely beneficiary, I'm keeping my eye on Bale and even Joaquin Phoenix for "Her".

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Lupita Nyong'o/12 Years a Slave (1)

2) Jennifer Lawrence/American Hustle (2)

3) Oprah Winfrey/Lee Daniels' The Butler (3)

4) June Squibb/Nebraska (4)

5) Julia Roberts/August: Osage County (5)

6) Sally Hawkins/Blue Jasmine (7)

7) Octavia Spencer/Fruitvale Station (6)

8) Margo Martindale/August: Osage County (8)

9) Scarlett Johansson/Her (9)

10) Lea Seydoux/Blue is the Warmest Color (New)

Comment: Margot Robbie (Wolf) drops off the top ten in this category.  Frankly, I think the only locks are Nyong'o and Lawrence.  

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Jared Leto/Dallas Buyers Club (1)

2) Michael Fassbender/12 Years a Slave (2)

3) Barkhad Abdi/Captain Phillips (3)

4) Daniel Bruhl/Rush (5)

5) Bradley Cooper/American Hustle (8)

6) James Gandolfini/Enough Said (6)

7) Tom Hanks/Saving Mr. Banks (4)

8) Jonah Hill/Wolf of Wall Street (7)

9) Will Forte/Nebraska (9)

10) James Franco/Spring Breakers (New)

Comment: Jake Gyllenhaal's "Prisoners" performance drops off the FAC.  This is the most fluid of any major category at this point with a big jump for Bradley Cooper and a big dive for Tom Hanks.  As I have said, I think "Mr. Banks" has been losing gas for about a month and this would seem to provide a little gas to the theory.  Cooper's rise underlines the general warm up for "American Hustle" as does Russell's movement in the directing category.  I've been saying for a good long time that I think "American Hustle" is the film that has a chance to knock off "12 Years" not "Gravity".  Some of the pros seem to be coming around to that possibility as well.

Bottom line, though, I still think "12 Years" is going to win the Big Prize on Mar. 2.

Finally, my bold prediction that TFF #40 films would get 40 nominations may be in some serious jeopardy. With "Llewyn" in trouble and Redford also looking more dicey, 40 nominations may not be achievable after all.

In all, in these six major categories and if these metrics were 100% accurate on Jan. 16 Telluride #40 films would have 13 nominations with another seven possibilities.

Next edition of MTFB/FAC will look at where we stand in Screenplay categories, Cinematography, Film Editing and Production Design.

HITFIX AND 25 "PRESTIGE" PICTURES FOR 2014...AND TFF #41?

Last week HitFix posted 25 films that were their "most anticipated" for 2014.  They've followed that up this week with a listing of 25 "Prestige" films that they're looking forward to and I thought it would be interesting to parse those for possible Telluride #41 titles.  So here's what they listed that seems to me to have some T-ride potential for 9 months from now:

# 20-Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" with Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  It's produced by See Saw and distributed by The Weinstein's, both of which make it at least a possibility.

#15-Alejandro Gonazalez Inarritu's "Birdman".  Frankly, I'll be surprised if this is NOT at Telluride unless Inarritus' foray into comedy (that's right, it's a comedy) proves too great a stretch for the man behind "Babel", "Biutiful" and "21 Grams".  That's a valid concern looking at his body of work.

#14-"Untitled Noah Baumbach/Greta Gerwig School Project".  Again, I'd kind of b surprised if this doesn't play at Telluride.  Baumbach and Gerwig's "Frances Ha" was well received at TFF #39 and Baumbach has a previous history with the fest.

#9-Mike Leigh's "Mr. Turner".  The third straight film to list here that I think is almost a lock to play Telluride.  Leigh has been a frequent guest of the fest, so I expect him to be back with this film about artist J.M.W. Turner.

#8-Thomas Vinterberg's "Far from the Madding Crowd".  This one isn't as solid a lock as the previous three but Vinterberg's "The Hunt" played well at TFF #39 and could still be a Best Foreign Language Oscar nominee in a few days.  It probably doesn't hurt that Carey Mulligan has been a Telluride gust previously with "An Education" and "Never Let Me Go".  Fox Searchlight is producing which could also decide to try to place the film in the Telluride lineup.

#7-Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  Admittedly, I may be wishing for this to be true much more than it's real chances to play.  This film was included on the HitFix list last week as well.  Again, Miller and Sony Pictures Classics make it a not completely unrealistic possibility.

#4- Todd Haynes' "Carol".  Mostly I've included this because Haynes' "I'm Not Here" played at Telluride in 2007 and The Weinstein's are distributing...also Film4 is part of the producing group. I'd just like to stoke the fires for a possible Cate Blanchett tribute.

There are other films in the list of 25 that I'd LIKE to see show up at the SHOW.  Their #1 is Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice"..yes please.  But I don't think that's terribly likely.  Others on the list that I'd like to see in the San Juans but seem on the unlikely side, at least at the moment:
Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar" (although friend of the blog Christopher Schiller thinks it might be a possibility), David Fincher's "Gone Girl", David Cronenberg's "Map to the Stars", Jon Stewart's "Rosewater" and Angelina Jolie's "Unbroken".

Finally, the article itself speculates that "Foxcatcher", "Birdman" and the Baumbach project could be Telluride material.

Find the article here:
http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/25-most-anticipated-prestige-films-of-2014-inherent-vice-nymphomaniac-the-grand-budapest-hotel



MC QUEEN AND CUARON

Here are major profiles of the two men who are expected to duke it out for the Best Director Oscar.  McQueen's is from The Guardian and Cuaron's if from The New York Times:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/jan/04/steve-mcqueen-my-painful-childhood-shame

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/01/05/movies/awardsseason/alfonso-cuaron-discusses-his-films.html?smid=tw-nytmovies&seid=auto&_r=0