Three weeks since my first post and interest is beginning to increase. I have the latest compilation of Oscar picks from a number of the better known Oscar websites. Here's the new run-down (with Telluride films in bold):
Best Pic: Australia, Benjamin Button, Milk, Revolutionary Road and Frost/Nixon
Also: Slumdog Millionaire, The Changeling, The Dark Knight, Doubt, and The Reader.
Comment: Milk and Button swap places, Slumdog has moved up significantly. Doubt, Defiance and The Soloist have fallen back...The Soloist & Defiance have fallen completely off the top ten list.
Best Direction: Fincher/Button, Luhrmann/Australia, Van Sant/Milk, Eastwood/Changeling, and Nolan/Knight
Also: Howard/Frost, Mendes/Revolutionary, Boyle/Slumdog, Shanley/Doubt and Daldry/Reader
Comment: A lot of Eastwood support despite seemingly weak feelings about the film for Best Pic. Christopher Nolan's stock has risen for Dark Knight quite a lot the last 3 weeks. And Danny Boyle has a big boost as well due to the great reactions at Telluride and Toronto.
Actor: Langella/Frost, Penn/Milk, Rourke/Wrestler, Hoffman/Doubt, DeCaprio/Revolutionary.
Also: Pitt/Button, Jenkins/Visitor, Mortenson/Road, Del Toro/Che, Brolin/W
Comment: Langella seems like a total lock even this far out. Rourke has risen a lot since Toronto, Pitt falls back some...And we don't know what category Hoffman will end up in... which makes this difficult...others also in the same boat include Michael Sheen, Jamie Foxx, and Robert Downey, Jr.
Actress: Streep/Doubt, Jolie/Changeling, Winslet/Revolutionary, Hathaway/Rachel, Kidman/Australia
Also: Thomas/Loved You, Hawkins/Happy, Leo/Frozen, Blanchett/Button, Winslet/Reader
Comment: Blanchett is in the same situation as Hoffman et. al....Maybe Lead, maybe Supporting. This race seems very fluid at this point and unlike Langella in the male lead category, no one seems to have a nomination locked down at this point.
Supporting Actor: Ledger/Knight, Smit-McPhee/Road, Downey/Soloist, Shannon/Revolutionary, Foxx-Soloist
Also: Franco/Milk, Sheen/Frost, Brolin/Milk, Schreiber/Definace, Malkovich/Changeling
Comment: Ledger continues to dominate. Everyone else is fighting a close battle and this category is likely to be affected by decisions about where to position Hoffman, Sheen, Downey, Foxx...
Supporting Actress: Cruz/Barcelona, Davis/Doubt, Henson/Button, Tomei/Wrestler, Farmiga/Truth.
Also: Adams/Doubt, Bates/Revolutionary, DeWitt/Rachel, Winger/Rachel, Zylberstein/Loved You.
Comment: Tomei has come on like gang busters. Zylberstein is new to the list.
Adapted Screenplay: Frost/Nixon, Button, The Road, Revolutionary Road, Slumdog Millionaire.
Also: Doubt, Dark Knight, Defiance, The Reader, and Body of Lies.
Comment: Slumdog jumps into the actual nominee list.
Original Screenplay: Milk, Australia, Wall-E, Barcelona, The Changeling.
Also: Visitor, Synecdoche NY, Happy-Go-Lucky, Rachel, Soloist
Comment: Wall-E is the big mover here and I kind of wonder why it wasn't getting more love in this category a month ago...it's going to be on a ton of top ten list at the end of the year.
Telluride mentions on this posting in all categories: 4 nominations and 7 hovering just below.