First Ten Bets for 2019 / The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part One / Variety's 31 Flavors of Oscar

Your final Friday of June has arrived...

FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2019

Well, it's here.

My very first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46.

I've been posting my guesses predictions for Telluride in this format since 2011.  Some years I have a better track record than others with the initial stab.  My track record throughout the years on the first Ten Bets looks like this:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner.  But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.

Other films that I listed on 2018's "just under the Ten Bets" that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.

Last year's half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.'

And so with that as a backdrop...drumroll please...here's your first Ten Bets for TFF #46


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


I'll be updating the Ten Bets each Friday for the rest of the summer and, as has become my custom, it will expand as we move through time.  Ultimately the final Ten Bets will come on Wednesday, August 28th with up to 25 films that I will predict or deduce that will make the TFF #46 lineup.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART ONE

Casting a glance today at smaller distribution houses and the films that they have that could make the Telluride program:

-COHEN MEDIA GROUP

This company is a consistent T-ride player.  Its history:

2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack


So what's in the CMG larder:

Safy Nebbou's Berlin hit Who You Think I Am.  The film focuses on a 50 year old woman (Juliette Binoche) who creates a fake social media profile.

At the moment, it seems to be the only film CMG has but don't discount the possibility that they'll acquire a film this summer that might also make the lineup.


-KINO LORBER

Another group that has been a frequent entrant in Telluride's fest.  Kino Lorber's track record:

2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain


After five straight years with at least one film in play at TFF, Kino Lorber was absent last year.  They could return- and have a good chance to do so, this year with a film that scored well at the Berlin International Film Festival. 

Nadav Lapid's Synonyms won the top prize, the Golden Bear, last February.  It has played a bunch of international fests since then.

IMDb describes the film as " A young Israeli man absconds to Paris to escape his nationality, aided by his trusty Franco-Israeli dictionary.


-IFC FILMS

IFC also has, at least for the moment, a single film that seems possible for T-ride and that is Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.   Described as a film that focuses on the stormy reunion between a daughter and her mother who is an actress involved in a sci-fi film in which she plays a woman who never ages.

After Kore-eda's stellar run in 2018 with Shoplifters which played TFF #45, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes  and was Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language film, you have to think that The Truth would be under real consideration for a return to Telluride for the director.


Chances for today's batch of films:

Synonyms 50%
The Truth 50%
Who You Think I Am 40%

I'll have a look at some of the other smaller distribution outfits on Monday.


VARIETY'S 31 FLAVORS OF OSCAR

Variety's Tim Gray posted a lengthy piece on Tuesday called "Oscar: 31 Upcoming Films that Could Enter the Awards Race". 

There are actually more than 31.
 when you look at all the lists and categorizations.

As you might expect, a slew of potential T-ride selections are on his various category lists.

Among the possible T-ride players that Gray includes are (in the order he lists them):

Untitled Jay Roach Fox News Project
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Little Women
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Laundromat
The Pope
Atlantics
Untitled Sally Potter Project (Molly)
Jojo Rabbit
The Woman in the Window
Joker...yea, I said it.
Motherless Brooklyn
The Good Liar
1917
Against All Enemies
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
Les Miserables
The Lighthouse
Lucy in the Sky
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project


The complete article is linked here.


That's the Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Plus / The Irishman Ping Pong / The Good Liar Has a Trailer

Good Thursday World...


THE DISTRIBUTORS: SONY PLUS

...And by "Sony Plus" I mean their affiliated companies Columbia and TriStar

The Sony Pictures group also includes Sony Pictures Classics, but as it is Sony's indie branch, I have dealt with it separately in an earlier post (June 11th).

Columbia has the U.S. distribution for Greta Gerwig's Little Women and though Columbia has a thin resume with Telluride, it's not invisible having just screened Jason Reitman's The Front Runner and Yann Damange's White Boy Rick last year at TFF #45.  In both cases, the director had previous work at Telluride.  Reitman a lot.

So the Gerwig connection could prove as potent this year after her success at Telluride with Lady Bird (2017- five Oscar nominations including Best Picture).  TFF also loved her as a guest as the star of Noah Baumbach's Frances Ha in 2012.


Meanwhile, the other Sony affiliate that has a film in the discussion for Telluride is Marielle Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood starring Tom Hanks as  children's television icon Fred Rogers.  Despite zero history between TriStar and TFF, Heller's presence (and perhaps Hanks') makes me think that it could be a consideration.  Last year Heller had a nifty run with Can You Ever Forgive Me? with that film debuting at Telluride and earning three Oscar nominations including one for Melissa McCarthy for Best Actress.

I'm currently putting their chances as:

Little Women 50%
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood 40%


Tomorrow, I'll take a look at a bunch of smaller specialty houses that have films in play.


THE IRISHMAN PING PONG

I'd pretty much reached the conclusion and reported that Martin Scorsese's The Irishman was off the books as far as Telluride was concerned and that hasn't changed.  The last couple of days, however, have been a funny back and forth as to whether it has a release date and an Indiewire story that flat says no fall film fests.

First the release date hoody-hoo.  A number of outlets reported on Tuesday that one of the film's producers, Irwin Winkler, was on record as saying that the film would have a Thanksgiving release.  That gave rise to some speculation that the film's visual effects might be done in time for Scorsese to screen it at the New York Film Fest (which has seemed like the natural landing place all along).

But Netflix and Scorsese reps strongly stated that there are still no firm release plans.

I have linked the updated stories about the release date ping pong here from The Playlist and for The Film Stage.

And here is the Anne Thompson story from Indiewire that flat says no Telluride, Venice, Toronto or New York.



THE GOOD LIAR HAS A TRAILER

Starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren, Bill Condon's The Good Liar has been on my Telluride radar for a bit.  The film is set for release on Nov. 15th and is being domestically distributed by Warner Bros.

The film has McKellen as a con man and Mirren as his mark but things don't go according to his plans.

New Line Cinema dropped the first trailer for the film yesterday.  Here it is via YouTube:

It looks...good.

Condon is an Oscar winner for writing the screenplay for Gods and Monsters.  He also was nominated for Chicago.


The Good Liar's IMDb page is here.


That's your Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow including the season's first Ten Bets.


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The Distributors 2019: 20th Century Fox / Lucy in the Sky and This Fall / Nuggets from Venice Speculation

Welcome...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: 20TH CENTURY FOX

Or...you know...Disney.

I'm taking a look at films that were at 20th Century Fox that are now, due to Disney's acquisition...part of Disney.  It has meaning as Disney and Telluride really have no history (at least in the time I've been attending TFF).  20th Century Fox has only a small footprint in as far as Telluride is concerned.

But 20th Century Fox has three solid films that are probably going to be a part of the end of the year awards conversation and they may try to include Telluride in their plans for those films.  They are:

James Gray's Ad Astra (more about it below) dated for release on Sept. 20th
Joe Wright's The Woman in the Window dated Oct. 4th
James Mangold's Ford v. Ferrari dated Nov. 15th

Two of the three directors have played Telluride in the past with Joe Wright their most recently with Darkest Hour.  Mangold their many years back with Walk the Line and even James Gray was in Telluride in 2012 for the tribute to Marion Cotillard.

So, the factors I look at to make a determination about whether a film is a likely T-ride choice are a mixed bag.

Ultimately, call Ad Astra the most likely prospect (again, see below) at 40%.
The others...
The Woman in the Window 30%
Ford v. Ferrari 30%


LUCY IN THE SKY AND THIS FALL

Natalie Portman in Lucy in the Sky (via IMDb)

I've had my eye on this (back when it was Untitled Noah Hawley Project and then when it became Pale Blue Dot) and just in the last day or so noticed a little more heat on Lucy's Telluride chances.  Ben Travers writing for Indiewire reported on Sunday that "Fox Searchlight is targeting the fall festival circuit for the film's debut".

In my Fox Searchlight assessment back on June 13th, I had Lucy in the Sky listed as having a 40% chance of making the Telluride lineup.  I might have to bump that to 45% in light of the Indiewire story and Fox Searchlight's history with Telluride.

The Travers piece in Indiewire is linked here.

Here's the trailer for the film that is as yet undated for release.

NUGGETS FROM VENICE SPECULATION

As we edge closer to announcements of films for both Venice and Toronto the speculation about what films will go where is starting to grow.  Case in point was World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy spec piece about all the fall film fests that he originally posted on June 21st and has continued to update.  That's linked here.

Last week Roger Friedman reported at ShowBiz 411 that Venice was looking strongly looking at programming Roman Polanski's An Officer and a Spy not that I think that suggests a Telluride play for that film. 

What was interesting was the mention of a couple of other films in the article.  Friedman reports that we can all give up on The Irishman for Venice (and by extension Telluride) as Scrosese does not look like he'll be done with the visual effects in time.The other note is that the notion that James Gray's Ad Astra will play Venice is gaining traction.  Should that happen, that may signal an increased likelihood that the space epic starring Brad Pitt might land in the Rockies on Labor Day weekend.

Something to ponder.


Tuesday's MTFB is in the books back on Thursday.


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The Distributors 2019: Warner Bros / The Aeronauts Flies Into the Conversation / Country Music Preview

I'm back.

I was in Dallas, Texas all of last week working as a part of the staff for the National Speech and Debate Association's National Speech Tournament.  It was good.

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: WARNER BROS.

This week I'm continuing to look at film production/distribution companies whose past record and current stash of films point to a possible choice for the 46th Telluride Film Festival.  Up until today's post I have been focused on specialty firms and streaming services.  Today is our first look at a major studio: Warner Bros.  Warners has, over the past half dozen years or so, made a mark on the festival. 

Here's their recent run at Telluride:

2018: No Show

2017: No Show

2016: Sully

2015 Black Mass

2014: No Show

2013: Gravity, Prisoners

2012: Argo

Warner Independent played Telluride in 2006 with Infamous and 2007 with Rails and Ties.

Last year Warners only likely Telluride play was A Star Is Born and we all know that didn't happen.

Despite not having a film at Telluride the past two years, 2019 could mark the return of the WB to the San Juans with four films that should be considered as possibles:

Bill Condon's The Good Liar starring Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren set for releases on Nov. 15th.  Condon has Telluride history (Kinsey-2004).

John Crowley's The Goldfinch starring Nicole Kidman and Ansel Elgort set for release Sept. 13th.  Crowley has Telluride history (Intermission-2003).

Edward Norton's Motherless Brooklyn starring Norton, Bruce Willis, Alec Baldwin and more.  It is set for release on Nov. 1.  Norton has no history with Telluride as a director - this is his second feature as a director- and I can't find any indication that Norton has been a guest of the fest in the past.  He has appeared in films that have played the festival: Birdman (2014), Frida (2002).  Also of note, Motherless Brooklyn is based on the novel by Jonathan Lethem who served as the fest's Guest Director last year.  That could be a signal.

Gavin O'Connor's Torrance (now reportedly renamed Long Time Coming) starring Ben Affleck as a former star athlete looking for redemption.  Affleck also acts as a producer for the film and his past success with Argo, which started its run to Oscar glory at Telluride, could make it a potential SHOW choice.

I honestly think any of the three could make the lineup and this could be the second time Warners lands more than a single film at TFF.

Chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Motherless Brooklyn 50%
The Good Liar 40%
Long Time Coming 25%



THE AERONAUTS

I posted my analysis for Amazon Studios Telluride chances on June 17th and in it,a film I didn't even mention is Tom Harper's The Aeronauts.

Couple of reasons for that:  Amazon is loaded with films that have a shot at Telluride and the film, which has a logline that reads like a straight thriller/action-adventure flick, just didn't seem like a film and director Tom Harper, to the best of my knowledge hasn't been near the festival in the past.

But after news this weekend, it seems that I may have miscalculated.

The International Film Critique Twitter account tweeted that:

If it were to be chosen to open Venice that means I definitely need to pay attention as a number of films that have been the Venice opener in recent years have then jumped to Telluride: Birdman, Gravity, La La Land, First Man, Downsizing.  So, should this be the choice for Venice, I'd better pay attention.

Adding fuel to the fuel to the fire was reporting from World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy.

Ruimy updated a fest-centric article from late May with news of The Aeronauts (as well as The Good Liar and Jojo Rabbit).  That updated post is linked here.  Ruimy also posted a small blurb about the film yesterday suggesting he's thinking that it might make the T-ride lineup.  See that here.

Put The Aeronauts on the list that I originally published a week ago for Amazon Studios as follows:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35%
The Aeronauts 30%

COUNTRY MUSIC PREVIEW

PBS has released a 25 minute preview of Ken Burns' upcoming multi-party documentary : Country Music.  Here's a link that will get you to the preview:

Ken Burns' Country Music on PBS

I still believe there's a reasonable chance that TFF #46 attendees may be able to see at least part of the doc over Labor Day weekend.

That's a wrap for MTFB on this Monday.  More on its way to you tomorrow and coming FRIDAY...the first TFF #46 Ten Bets list of the summer!

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The Distributors 2019: Lionsgate-Roadside Attractions / Sorry We Missed You Trailer / Pain and Glory Trailer

Welcome to Friday and the end of a long week for me from the National Speech Tournament in Dallas, Texas.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: LIONSGATE-ROADSIDE ATTRACTIONS

Lionsgate and affiliated film company Roadside Attractions have a solid appearance history with the Telluride Film Festival.

Lionsgate at Telluride:

2017: Hostiles
2016: La La Land
2013: All Is Lost

Roadside Attractions was repped at T-ride as follows over the past few years:

2018: Trial by Fire
2016: Manchester by the Sea
2014: '71, Mommy, The Homesman
2013: All is Lost, Gloria
2012: Stories We Tell
2011: Albert Nobbs
2010: Biutiful

Between the two affiliated distributors is an average of about one film each year.  1.2 films per year to be exact.

For 2019, between the firms, there seem to be two possibilities.

One is the Judy Garland biopic starring Renee Zellweger and directed by Rupert Goold.  The other is the Jay Roach directed, John Lithgow starring film about Roger Ailes and the working environment at Fox News.  The film also stars Nicole Kidman, Charlize Theron and Margot Robbie and is due in theaters on Dec. 20th

I'd put the Telluride chances for both of these films at 40%.



SORRY WE MISSED YOU TRAILER


We have a trailer for Ken Loach's social drama Sorry We Missed You.  he film played at Cannes to moderately good critical response.  It's still unacquired for U.S. distribution and as such is not yet dated for release in the United States.

Here' the trailer for the film via YouTube:

I've linked an article about the film and its trailer debut from Alex Billington at FirstShowing.net here.


PAIN AND GLORY TRAILER


Another Cannes success has a new trailer for the UK. Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory which features Cannes Best Actor winner Antonio Banderas.  Penelope Cruz also stars in the film.Almodovar's semi-autobiographical film is under the auspices of Sony Pictures Classics and is set for U.S. release on Oct. 4th.

Could Pain and Glory be Almodovar's return to TFF?

Here's the trailer via YouTube.

That's the MTFB for the week.  Come back next Monday for more.


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The Distributors 2019: Neon / Pico Iyer Will Lead Us / First Gaze at Little Women

Good Thursday to all...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: NEON

Film distribution company NEON has come on like gangbusters in the past couple of years.  Their The B Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography played Telluride in 2016.  NEON also played with Border and The Biggest Little Farm last year.  Additionally NEON ended up as the distributor for the Aretha Franklin documentary Amazing Grace which was expected to play TFF in both 2015 and 2016 but, due to legal issues did not.

So...it's not a lengthy Telluride resume but it is relatively intense of late.  As a matter of fact, their emergence is so recent I didn't even handicap their chances with films last year and as you can see above, they landed two.

Now, as we're assessing the 2019 landscape, NEON seems poised to make a splash again this year as they have acquired two huge titles from Cannes.  Palme d'Or winner Parasite and Best Screenplay winner at Cannes: Portrait of a Lady on Fire.  At the moment, these two films seem to be the only two NEON films with a shot at TFF #46.

I'm bullish on the chances for both films to make it to the 2019 version of The SHOW

Chances...

Parasite 60%
Portrait of a Lady on Fire 60%

More distribution analysis tomorrow.


PICO IYER WILL LEAD US

The Telluride Film Festival officially announced that author Pico Iyer will serve as Guest Director this year.

Here's the text of the official announcement:

BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (TFF), presented by National Film Preserve LTD., is proud to announce its 2019 Guest Director, Pico Iyer. The celebrated author is set to select a series of films to present at the 46th Telluride Film Festival running over Labor Day Weekend, August 30 through September 2, 2019.

Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in the Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas and overlooked films to Telluride. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Iyer’s film selections, along with the rest of the Telluride lineup, will be kept secret until Opening Day.

“Pico is a tremendously gifted writer with unrivaled wit,” said TFF Executive Director Julie Huntsinger. “His enthusiasm for film, especially within his writing, has buoyed and enchanted us. It has made working with him to create this year’s Guest Director program a particularly delightful experience. Both Tom Luddy and I are thrilled to have him with us this year.”

Pico Iyer is the author of two novels and thirteen works of non-fiction. His books have been translated into 23 languages and both his 2008 meditation on the XIVth Dalai Lama, The Open Road, and his TED Book, The Art of Stillness, were best sellers across the U.S. They have also made him a Guggenheim Fellow, a Pulitzer Prize nominee and a finalist for the Los Angeles Times Book Prize.

An essayist for Time since 1986, he is a constant contributor to The New York Times, The New York Review of Books, Harper’s and more than 200 other newspapers and magazines worldwide, and he has published introductions to 70 other works.

Iyer has also written many liner-notes for Leonard Cohen, essays for several Criterion Collection DVDs and a screenplay for Miramax. His writing on Malick, Farhadi, Bertolucci, Scorsese and many other filmmakers has appeared all over, and his writing on movie studios from North Korea to Hyderabad has borne out The New Yorker’s assertion that “As a guide to far-flung places, he can hardly be surpassed.”

Born in Oxford, England, in 1957, Iyer was educated at Eton, Oxford and Harvard. This year he’s been serving as Ferris Professor of Journalism at Princeton.

“In the times I’ve been to the Festival I’ve seen as many rich and original films in three days as I get to watch in the next twelve months combined,” said Iyer. “So when Tom and Julie asked if I might be willing to serve as Guest Director this year, I felt as stunned and delighted as if I’d been given the keys to the kingdom. Movies have actually been my secret passion for as long as the Telluride Film Festival has been around. But nobody had intuited this until Tom and Julie, a dream team of sorts, sensed my excitement and offered me a chance to share my enthusiasms and passions with others. The invitation to help choose films for the Festival this year was the most exciting one I can remember receiving; I only hope I can pass on a fraction of the delight that I have found at Telluride to others in this inspiring community.”

Past Guest Directors include Jonathan Lethem, Joshua Oppenheimer, Volker Schlöndorff, Rachel Kushner, Guy Maddin, Caetano Veloso, Michael Ondaatje, Alexander Payne, Salman Rushdie, Peter Bogdanovich, B. Ruby Rich, Phillip Lopate, Errol Morris, Bertrand Tavernier, John Boorman, John Simon, Buck Henry, Laurie Anderson, Stephen Sondheim, G. Cabrera Infante, Peter Sellars, Don DeLillo, J.P. Gorin, Edith Kramer and Slavoj Žižek.

The Guest Director program is sponsored by Turner Classic Movies (TCM). Considered throughout the industry as one of the leading authorities on classic film, the network presents great films, uncut and commercial-free, highlighting the entire spectrum of film history.

FIRST GAZE AT LITTLE WOMEN


Vanity Fair revealed a first look at still photography from Greta Gerwig's highly anticipated adaptation of Louisa Mae Alcott's classic Little Women.

The film stars Meryl Streep, Saoirse Ronan, Emma Watson, Florence Pugh, Timothee Chalamet, Bob Odenkirk and Laura Dern. 

The film is being shepherded by Sony/Columbia nd is due for release on Dec. 25th.

Here's a taste of the visuals from Vanity Fair:

For a view of more of the stills and the article the accompanies them at Vanity Fair click here.

That's the Thursday MTFB.  More tomorrow.


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The DIstributors 2019: Focus Features / Apple Wants to Play / Soon to See The Good Liar

Good Tuesday everyone and here's your MTFB for the day.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: FOCUS FEATURES

Focus Features has had a very spotty record with Telluride over the years that I have been attending as you can see from the list below, Focus has been on the program five times since 2006:


2018- Boy Erased
2017- Darkest Hour
2015- Suffragette
2012- Hyde Park on Hudson
2006- Catch a Fire

However, also note that Focus has played Telluride two years consecutively and three of the last four TFFs.  Additionally, Darkest Hour was very successful with its run two years ago with two Oscar wins including Gary Oldman for Best Actor and another four nominations including one for Best Picture.

I'd also guess that Focus was aiming/hoping for the same kind of success last year with Boy Erased.  That didn't happen as Oscar nominations didn't pan out, though Boy Erased was nominated for two Golden Globes.

Both films...as a matter of fact, I believe all five of these listed Focus Feature films first screened at Telluride.  Also, in most cases, the directors of the films had been involved with a film that had played Telluride previously.

Last year this is how I handicapped the possible Focus Feature films:

Everybody Knows 50%
Boy Erased 40%
On the Basis of Sex 40%
Mary Queen of Scots 40%

As to 2019, Focus has two films that might be possible.  Kasi Lemmons Harriet Tubman biopic starring Cynthia Ervio is one and Todd Haynes untitled film currently listed by IMDb as being in post-production since March is the other.

Mark Ruffalo takes the lead in the film as an attorney fighting corporate environmental malfeasance.  The film is based on a Nataniel Rich article from The New York Times Magazine in 2016.  The title Dry Run has been used in the past for this film. That article is linked here.

Lemmons played Eve's Bayou at T-ride in 1997.  Haynes has been a frequently programmed director with Carol, Wonderstruck and  I'm Not There.

There's an outside shot that Eliza Hittman's Never, Rarely, Sometimes, Always gets some attention as well.

Focus also has the Downton Abbey film which opens Sept. 20th but seems an unlikely TFF choice.


Soooo...my percentages for Focus...

Harriet 50%
Haynes/Dry Run 50%
Never, Rarely 25%
Downton 10%

Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised if Focus landed two films at Telluride this year.


APPLE WANTS TO PLAY

The New York Post reported yesterday that Apple wants to get into the theatrical release/Oscar game as they roll out their own streaming platform, Apple+.    Indiewire also carried the story.

Apple seems to be wanting to produce half a dozen small budget/high prestige fare with an eye toward awards season.

The Post's source is quoted in the article as saying that Apple aims to create "Focus Features-esque awards contenders" and specifically mentions BlacKkKlansman, Boy Erased and Dallas Buyers Club.

Of course, from my perspective, the questions that raises are: "Will Apple strive to compete for fall festival slots?" and, of course and specifically, "Will they make the attempt to get into Telluride?"

Seems like that will be really interesting to keep an eye on.


SOON TO SEE THE GOOD LIAR

Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren photo from The Good Liar via USA Today

Anton Volkov's Trailer Track website reported yesterday that we are soon to see a trailer for The Good Liar.  The film stars Helen Mirren and Ian McKellen.  The film is directed by Bill Condon and set for U.S. release on Nov. 15th.  It is being distributed by Warner Bros.

All of these factors make it a possible choice for Telluride.

Volkov says he expects the trailer online in the next 10 days or so and likely to be timed with next week's release of Danny Boyle's Yesterday.

In the film, McKellen plays an aging con artist and Mirren a well-to-do widow according to the film's IMDb web page.

Check out Volkov's post at this link.



That's a wrap for this Tuesday.  I'll have more on Thursday...


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The Distributors 2019: Amazon Studios / The Report Release / Just Off the "If I Had To"

Welcome back from your Father's Day weekend.  Twas also my dad's birthday weekend...he's 83!


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: AMAZON STUDIOS

Last Friday I talked about Netflix and it's no secret that streaming platforms have changed the landscape when it comes to film festivals, Oscar and T-ride.  Amazon Studios has also been a huge player in that transition and as such has become, over the last three years, an outfit to be noticed when trying to handicap The SHOW as well as the Oscar race.

Amazon had serious Oscar players last year with Cold War (Three Oscar nominations including Best Director) and in 2016 with Manchester by the Sea (which allowed Casey Affleck to win the Oscar for Best Actor and Kenneth Lonergan to win for Best Original Screenplay).

Amazon Studios Telluride resume is small but mighty:

2018: Peterloo, Cold War
2017: Wonderstruck
2016: Manchester by the Sea

And here were my numbers attempting to predict their chances at Telluride for 2018.  I posted the Amazon picks on June 21st last year.

Peterloo- 75%
Cold War- 50%
Beautiful Boy 40%
Photograph- 30%
Life Itself- 20%


And, as you can see, the high percentages for Peterloo and Cold War panned out.

Looking at this year, Amazon's potential for T-ride inclusion is substantial.  As of today, they have at least five films that are part of the conversation:

Against All Enemies/Andrews
The Goldfinch/Crowley
Les Miserables/Ly
Radioactive/Satrapi
The Report/Burns

Andrews, Crowley and Satrapi have all had films play at Telluride previously each with a single film:

Andrews: 2016: Una
Crowley: 2003: Intermission
Satrapi: 2007: Persepolis

On Friday last week, you may have noticed that I listed Crowley's The Goldfinch as one of my ten "If I Had To" list.  The Goldfinch is actually split between Amazon and Warner Bros.

Consequently, The Goldfinch leads the Amazon list in terms of chances to play T-ride in 2019 but each of the five films have a serious chance to make it.

The chances:

The Goldfinch 60%
Radioactive 50%
Les Miserables 40% (Cannes prize winner: Jury Prize)
Against All Enemies 40%
The Report 35% (played Sundance but so did Manchester by the Sea...see below)


Tomorrow, I'll take a stab at evaluating the lineup from Focus Features.



THE REPORT RELEASE

Adam Driver in The Report (via IMDb)

The Report was very well received at its original screening at Sundance in February (94% at Rotten Tomatoes) and since then I have been suggesting that it might be one of the films for which the programmers at Telluride might make an exception.

Telluride rarely...and I mean rarely...programs a film that has played previously at Sundance.  It happened a couple of years back with Manchester by the Sea which was produced by Amazon Studios.  The Report is being distributed this year by Amazon as well.

Not surprisingly, we found out over the weekend that The Report will have a theatrical release prior to its streaming debut on Sept. 27th.  Tom Bruggeman at Indiewire, among others, posted that on Thursday.  You can find more details in the Indiewire story linked here.

That date would certainly allow The Report to make the lineup at The SHOW as well as Toronto.   New York seems unlikely as that fest opens on the 27th as well.


JUST OFF THE "IF I HAD TO"

Friday I kind of did an unofficial list of films that I was spitballing as possible TFF #46 films.  If you missed them, that list again was:

Atlantics
The Climb
Country Music
Family Romance LLC
The Goldfinch
Nomadland
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Varda by Agnes

In addition to those ten films there are a few others that I feel like may also be semi-serious potentials:

Harriet, Motherless Brooklyn, Synonyms, Little Women, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, The Truth.


More to come on Tuesday...

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Netflix / If I Had To... / Oscar Has Dates / The Return of Looney Tunes?

Good Friday everyone and welcome to the start of this weekend...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: NETFLIX

This week's opening two entries in my annual rundown of distribution companies and the films each has that could be part of the Telluride lineup focused on the company with the longest and most ubiquitous recent history with the fest (Sony Pictures Classics) and another that has had the most Oscar success with films that have played the fest (Fox Searchlight).

Today we look at the company that has been very impressive over that past four years at Telluride both in terms of quality as well as in terms of increasing quantity as well as being the lightning rod in the conversation about what theatrical distribution may mean going forward and that, of course, is Netflix.

The streaming giant first showed up at T-ride in 2015 and has been a consistent presence at the fest since then.

Last year they made their biggest splash yet in regards to awards season with Alfonso Cuaron's Roma playing Venice and then Telluride on its way to three Oscars (Foreign Language Film, Direction and Cinematography) and seven other nominations including Best Picture.

Here's the Netflix history at Telluride for these past four years:

2018: Roma, Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead
2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood
2016: The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno
2015- Beasts of No Nation, Winter on Fire

This is how I predicted their potential for Telluride last summer on June 26th.
The Other Side of the Wind- 80%
Girl and/or Happy as Lazzaro- 50%
Roma- 40%
Outlaw King- 25%
Triple Frontier- 15%
The Irishman- 5%

And, as you can see from above, Other Side of the Wind, Girl, and Roma all made the TFF #45 lineup.

So, I have to believe that it is very likely that Netflix returns to TFF this year with more than one film.

At this point here are the films under the Netflix umbrella that I think have some chance of being programmed for Labor Day weekend:

Atlantics (Diop)
The Irishman (Scorsese)
The King (Michod)
The Last Thing He Wanted (Rees)
The Laundromat (Soderbergh)
The Pope (Meirelles)
Untitled Noah Baumbach (Baumbach)

Scorsese, Baumbach, Soderbergh and Meirelles have all had films involved at Telluride in the past.
 
Of late, Scorsese's "presence" has been as a producer of documentaries that have been a part of the fest's lineup: Living in the Material World, The 50 Year Argument.  He was also a producer for Bleed for This.
Baumbach had Frances Ha and Margot at the Wedding. 
Soderbergh has had films play at TFF that he acted as a producer for including We Need to Talk About Kevin, Keane and I'm Not There. 
Meirelles City of God played in 2002.

Diop's Atlantics  might have the best chance of playing at TFF owing to its reception at Cannes.  It won the Jury's Grand Prize and was reasonably well received critically.

Honestly, on paper no one film stands out as being more or less likely to play.  Scorsese hasn't been to T-ride since back near the very beginning.  Baumbach has tended toward shying away.  Meirelles has only had the single film 17 years ago.

The biggest "get" would be Scorsese' The Irishman...which still might not be done with the de-aging visual effects come Labor Day weekend.  My expectation will be that Netflix will want to go all for the Oscars with The Irishman as they did with Roma last year but that other factors may mean that The Irishman bypasses everything until the New York Film Fest ( Sept. 27-Oct. 13).

So...my best guestimates at this time:

Atlantics 50%
Untitled Baumbach 40%
The Laundromat 35%
The Last Thing He Wanted 30%
The King 30%
The Irishman 25%
The Pope 20%


 IF I HAD TO...

As regular readers are aware, I won't have my first "real" predictions about what I'm guessing plays at Telluride for another couple of weeks.  But the last couple of years, I have done an early "spitball" as if I were being forced at gunpoint to make some guesses.

So here that is...

If I had to name ten films I thought might make the TFF #46 program as of today they would be (in alphabetical order not order of likelihood:

Atlantics
The Climb
Country Music
Family Romance LLC
The Goldfinch
Nomadland
Parasite
Portrait of a Lady on Fire
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Varda by Agnes

If the last couple of years are any indication...about half this list will actually make the T-ride grade.


OSCAR HAS DATES

After moving the Oscar awards ceremony up for 2020 to Feb. 9th, we learned this week that early time slot will be temporary.  AMPAS announced that Oscar will revert back to the final Sunday in February for its ceremony in 2021 and 2022.  That's Feb. 28, 2021 and Feb. 27, 2022.

Linked here are posts about the announcement from both

Indiewire

and

The Hollywood Reporter


THE RETURN OF LOONEY TUNES?

Photo via Warner Bros. and The Hollywood Reporter

The Annecy Animation Fest is ongoing in France and as I have noted on occasion here, there have been a number of animated films that have moved from that fest to a Telluride screening later.

That could happen again this year and in a very specific, nostalgic and Telluride-centric way.  Warner Brothers has resurrected the old Looney Tune brand and unveiled a number of animated shorts featuring Bugs, Daffy and this week in France.

Considering TFF's long association with WB animating legend Chuck Jones (there's a huge venue named in his honor!) you have to believe that a program of the new cartoons could be included as a part of TFF #46.

The Hollywood Reporter covered the screening in Annecy and you can find their post for that linked here.

Th...th...that's all folks!

I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Fox Searchlight / Return of The Jesus? / Ad Astra T.V. Spot

Good Thursday everybody!

THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: FOX SEARCHLIGHT

Yesterday we began our look at film distributors as a way of setting the table for the expectations of films that could end up selected for a spot in the TFF #46 lineup this year by looking at Sony Pictures Classics.  As I mentioned yesterday, over the last decade and a half, SPC has had the most consistent relationship with TFF but the distribution group that may have had the most successful run at TFF over that time span has been Fox Searchlight.

The specialty film arm of 20th Century Fox has had an incredible run over the past several years:

2018: The Favourite, Can You Ever Forgive Ne?, The Old Man and the Gun (3)
2017: The Shape of Water (Best Picture Oscar), Battle of the Sexes (2)
2016: No Show
2015: He Named Me Malala (1)
2014: Birdman (Best Picture), Wild (2)
2013: 12 Years a Slave (Best Picture) (1)
2012: No Show
2011: Shame, The Descendants (2)
2010: Never Let Me Go, 127 Hours, Black Swan (3)
2009: No Show
2008: Slumdog Millionaire (Best Picture) (1)
2007: Juno, The Savages (2)
2006: The Last King of Scotland, The Namesake (2)
2005: Bee Season (1)
2004: Kinsey (1)

That's right.  Four Best Picture winners from Fox Searchlight since 2008's win for Slumdog Millionaire; the others being 12 Years a Slave (2013), Birdman (2015) and The Shape of Water (2017).

Over the year's included above Fox Searchlight films that played T-ride have earned a total of 80 Oscar nominations.  I addition to the above listed Best Picture winners, Fox Searchlight has also screened five other films that were nominated for Best Picture at Telluride: The Favourite, The Descendants, 127 Hours, Black Swan and Juno.

Last year, here's how I assessed the Searchlight slates chances of playing TFF:

The Old Man and the Gun 50%
The Favourite 45%
Wendy 30%
Can You Ever Forgive Me?  25%

Ultimately, Benh Zeitlin's Wendy was not released.

Finally, as you can see from above, FS doesn't always play TFF.  2009, 2012 and 2016 were all years in which FS did not have a film screen at The SHOW.  Over the 15 years covered here, FS has screened 21 films for an average of 1.4 films per year.

All of that acts as your background to contemplate the possibilities for Fox Searchlight films that might make an appearance over Labor Day weekend.  These are the seven films that I'm aware of from them that could be in the conversation for a TFF berth:

Malick's A Hidden Life
Cooper's Antlers
Zhao's Nomadland
Hawley's Lucy in the Sky
Zeitlin's Wendy (again)
Faxon and Rash's Downhill
Waititi's Jojo Rabbot

Any and all of them are possible for TFF, although none seem to be a dead certainty at this point.  Malick's probably the most "prestige" film among the group but its Cannes reception was modest...decent critical response but no love from the Cannes Palme jury.  Additionally, the fact that a Malick-directed film has never played T-ride.

On the other hand, Bill Pohlad is listed as one of several Executive Producers for the film and Pohlad has a history with TFF.  He was a producer or executive producer on 12 Years a Slave, Wild, Into the Wild, Fur and Brokeback Mountain all of which played Telluride so that adds some weight to the notion that A Hidden Life might be included in the 2019 edition of The SHOW.

Pohlad has a strong history with Malick as well.  In addition to his credit on A Hidden Life, Pohlad is also listed among the producers or acknowledged with thanks for The Tree of Life, Voyage of Time, Knight of Cups and To the Wonder.

Scott Cooper has certainly had a good Telluride resume over his brief career with both Black Mass and Hostiles making appearances.  That kind of frequency of invitation would normally make me think that his latest film is very likely to make the grade.  But since neither of those films made many waves financially, critically or in the awards season I wonder if Antlers gets the invite.

Honestly, the best shot might be Chloe Zhao's Nomadland starring two time Oscar winner Frances McDormand.  Zhao's last film, The Rider, played TFF in 2017 and received terrific critical response.  The film follows the life of a woman who is struggling to make it through America's Great Recession.  To me, it sets up as the kind of film that Telluride programmers would be very, very fond of.

Downhill is the remake of Reuben Ostlund's Force Majuere.

Personally, I'd love to see either Lucy in the Sky and/or Jojo Rabbit make it to Telluride.

Lucy in the Sky features Natalie Portman as a female astronaut who has emotional issues upon her return to earth.  Jojo Rabbit seems wild with writer, director, actor Taika Waititi creating an "anti-hate satire" with Waititi playing Adolf Hitler.  Sam Rockwell and Scarlett Johansson also star.

And as to the Zeitlin...still may not be ready and, honestly, I wasn't all that enamored of his Beasts of the Southern Wild.

My estimate of chances:

Nomadland 50%
Lucy in the Sky 40%
A Hidden life 40%
Antlers 35%
Jojo Rabbit 35%
Wendy 25%
Downhill 20%

I'm guessing Fox Searchlight lands two films at Telluride this year.

RETURN OF THE JESUS?

John Turturro as Jesus Quintana in The Big Lebowski (via Indiewire)

John Turturro has made a lot of films playing a lot of characters.  He's done that several times for the Coen Brothers and perhaps none more memorably than Jesus Quintana, the "pederast" in The Big Lebowski.

Turturro has long wanted to return to that character and, in fact, has in a film he developed, wrote, directed (with the blessing of but no participation from the Coens) and will star in.  The film is titled Going Places.

Turturro was recently interviewed by The Independent in England mostly owing to his role in Sebastian Lelio English language remake of his own film-Gloria.  However, in the course of that interview, Turturro spends some time talking about Jesus and Going Places.

Indiewire's Zack Sharf picked up there and expanded on the Going Places story in a piece posted on Monday which includes the assertion that Going Places still has no announced release plans "but at this point a fall film festival debut seems likely."

So, despite the lack of a release date and no announced distributor, I'm putting the film on my TFF #46 watch list...and my wish list as well.

The original Independent interview is linked here.

The Indiewire story is linked here.


AD ASTRA T.V. SPOT


Last week we had the debut of the first trailer for James Gray's Ad Astra starring Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones.

This week we have an edited down version of it that has appeared as a television commercial.  Here that is from YouTube:

Ad Astra is one of the most highly anticipated titles this fall and is set to open on Sept. 20th.


Thursday is in the books.  More from MTFB tomorrow including my "If I Had To" segment.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2019: Sony Pictures Classics / A Look at The Whistlers / Stone's First Assessment

Welcome to this first summer 2019 Tuesday edition of MTFB...



THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: SONY PICTURES CLASSICS

Over the years I've been attending Telluride's Film Festival no other distribution company has placed more films at TFF than Sony Pictures Classics and it really isn't even close.  Look at the SPC/TFF history over the past 16 years:


2018: The White Crow (1)
2017: A Fantastic Woman, Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool, Foxtrot, Loveless, The Rider (5)
2016: The Eagle Huntress, Maudie, Norman, Toni Erdmann (4)
2015: Son of Saul (1)
2014: Foxcatcher, Leviathan, Red Army, Mr. Turner, Wild Tales, Salt of the Earth and Merchants of Doubt (7)
2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune (5)
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour (6)
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation (4)
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job (6)
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education (5)
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten (3)
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters, Steep! (6)
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian (4)
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child (4)
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes (6)
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam (4)


That's 71 films over 16 festivals averaging an astonishing 4.4 films a year.  Last year and 2015 were anomalies with only a single SPC film making the TFF lineup.

When I posted the SPC assessment last summer I only had then  with two possibilities: Capernaum and The Fall of the American Empire.  I listed Capernaum with a 60% chance at TFF and American Empire at 30% and, as you may remember, neither film played The SHOW.

In my defense, I did say in last summer's post that 2018 could be a year wherein SPC might only have a single film at Telluride and they didn't acquire distribution rights to Ralph Fiennes' The White Crow until August 13th, more than two months after I posted the SPC assessment.

This year, SPC looks likely to be back at TFF but probably not at the 4-5 film level.  Right now, they list five films that I think could be in play.  Three of those are films from Cannes plus a documentary and World War II drama.

The Cannes films are Pedro Almodovar's Pain and Glory, Ira Sachs' Frankie and Michael Covino's The Climb.  Both the Almodovar and the Covino films were critically lauded at the French fest last month with Pain and Glory winning Best Actor for Antonio Banderas and The Climb winning a jury award in the Un Certain Regard section.  Frankie did not fare as well with critics or jurors.

As I have written here a few times, Almodovar was a common invitee to TFF in the past but hasn't screened a film there since 2006's Volver.  Perhaps Pain and Glory is the film that returns the Oscar winner to the San Juans.

The other two SPC films are a documentary about the life of musical legend John Prine entitled John Prine: Hello in There and the drama The Song of Names starring Clive Owen and Tim Roth.  SPC acquired The Song of Names in April.

My assessment at the moment is actually that The Climb might be the front runner for SPC's chances to be on the Telluride list.  Here's my best guestimate of the chances for each of the five films listed above to make The SHOW

The Climb 50%
Pain and Glory 40%
Frankie 30%
The Song of Names 30%
John Prine: Hello in There 20%

Thursday's  distribution spotlight will shine on Fox Searchlight.



A LOOK AT THE WHISTLERS

Still from The Whistlers via The Playlist

In 2006 Corneliu Porumboiu screened his Cannes award winning film 12:08 East of Bucharest at the 30th Telluride Film Festival.  He hasn't had a film return since.

That could change this year with his latest Cannes entrant The Whistlers.  IMDb describes the film as a comedy and a crime film.  The story centers on a policeman attempting to spring a crooked businessman from prison complicated by the need to use different languages.

The film played moderately well as a part of the Palme competition lineup at last month's Cannes fest but was not an award winner.

Earlier this week, a new international teaser trailer became available for the film.  Here that is from YouTube:

The Playlist posted an extensive story on the film on May 18th for the film's Cannes debut.  The post include multiple clips and stills from the film.  That Playlist story is linked here.


The Whistlers does not have U.S. distribution at this point.


STONE'S FIRST ASSESSMENT

Sasha Stone, who has been a good friend to me over the years, has her first assessment of the Best Picture landscape for this year at her website Awards Daily.

Sasha also includes as a part of her review Best Pic sentiments from Anne Thompson of Indiewire and Erik Anderson of Awards Watch.

Sasha's list ultimately includes ten films most of which could potentially be a part of the TFF #46 lineup. 

Among the ten films she lands on are: Scorsese's The Irishman, Tarantino's Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Gerwig's Little Women and Heller's A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood.

Check out her entire article here.

That's a wrap for this Tuesday.  More on Thursday.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Summer Sked Is In Effect / Upcoming This Week / International Films and Telluride

Good Monday everyone...

THE SUMMER SKED IS IN EFFECT

Beginning with today's post MTFB is on its summer posting schedule.  Through TFF's Labor Day weekend. I'll be posting four times a week on Mondays, Tuesdays, Thursdays and Fridays.  You can also expect occasional bonus posts when circumstances warrant.

For those of you that have followed this space for any length of time, you know that this switch to more posts each week means that it's time to get serious about what might play this year for the 46th edition of the Telluride Film Festival.

So, with that thought in mind...


UPCOMING THIS WEEK

I'll start peeking at the distribution companies that are frequent players at TFF to see what each has loaded up for later this year.  I'll include an historical look at what each of those companies has done at TFF over the past several years as well as handicapping the chances for their films to make the TFF #46 program.

Look for assessments for:

Sony Pictures Classics
Fox Searchlight
Netflix
Amazon Studios
Focus Features
Neon
Warner Bros.
Sony/Columbia
20th Century Fox/Disney
Lionsgate/Roadside Attractions
Cohen Media Group
Sundance Selects/IFC Films
Annapurna
Kino Lorber

The "Ten Bets" list will kick off my official season of guessing the Telluride lineup on June 28th but for those of you who just can't wait, I'll be putting up my "If I Had To..." list of guesses this coming Friday.

 I started doing this "early bird" version of my "Ten Bets" list a couple of years ago.  In 2017 I had six films listed that made The SHOW.  In 2018 I got five right.  Oddly, that's right in the ballpark of the average number of correct titles on each year's first "Ten Bets".

So... there's an outline of some of the things you can plan on seeing hear over the next few days and weeks.


INTERNATIONAL FILMS AND TELLURIDE

I certainly have a lot of "to-do" over the past several years regarding Telluride and the Oscar Best Picture race.  However, one area that I could have and maybe should have spent a little more tin=me doting over are the films that play TFF that go on to be serious contenders for what has, up until this year, been the Best Foreign Language Film category.  Now the Academy has changed the category name to Best International Film.

You'd have to be fairly oblivious not to have realized that TFF has hosted a serious number of Foreign Film Oscar contenders and winners over the years but I got curious since this year's Cannes about just how deep the Telluride and Foreign Film Oscar connection truly was.

Much like the Best Picture Oscar connection, TFF had some limited connection to the Foreign Oscar during the first few years of the 21st century and then that connection expanded dramatically beginning in 2008.

Here's a rundown of all the Foreign Language nominees and winners that have played TFF since 2000.  You'll see what I mean. (Oscar winners in the category are designated with an ***):

2000- Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon***
2001- Amelie
2002- The Man Without a Past
2003- The Barbarian Invasions***
2004- No nominees
2005- Paradise Now
2006- The Lives of Others***
2007- The Counterfeiters***
2008- Revanche, Waltz with Bashir
2009- A Prophet, White Ribbon
2010- Biutiful, Incendies
2011- A Separation***, Footnote, In Darkness
2012- Amour***, No, A Royal Affair
2013- The Hunt, The Missing Picture
2014- Ida***, Leviathan, Wild Tales
2015- Son of Saul***
2016- Toni Erdmann
2017- A Fantastic Woman***, The Insult, Loveless
2018- Roma***, Cold War, Shoplifters

That's nine winners over the last 19 years as well as a total of 32 nominated films and you'll note that the bulk of those wins and nominations have occurred since 2008.  Since then TFF has hosted five Oscar winners and 25 nominees.

So, not to put too fine a point on it, but if you're someone with a vested interest in getting a film into the serious International Film Oscar convo, Telluride is a good place to get into.

Related to all of this is a piece that Awards Circuits' Clayton Davis published on Wednesday last week that recapped the International films that have bowed at Sundance, Berlin and Cannes that he thinks have the best Oscar shots at the moment.

Among the films he lists that I feel are looking the strongest for Telluride right now are: Parasite, Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Synonyms, By the Grace of God, Synonyms, Bacarau, The Invisible Life of Euridice Gusmao, Pain and Glory, Young Ahmed and Atlantics.

Clayton's entire article is linked here.



That's your Monday MTFB.  More tomorrow...


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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