Indiewire Reveals? / Ten Bets #3 / Oscar Ramblings / The Last Distribs

INDIEWIRE REVEALS?

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know".  Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.

Here's the Thompson rundown:

The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).


The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:

Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock

 I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.

The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul.  That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own.  If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.

The complete article is linked here.


TEN BETS #3

Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above.  But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:


10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite


Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note:  this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020.  That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week.  I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today.  So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:


10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite

Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.

Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.


OSCAR RAMBLINGS

I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April.  Here me out...

What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021?  I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date.   I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel.  I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.

So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?

Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above:  Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".

What films then do become players?  Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.

Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.

Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list:  Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May).  Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated.  Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).

Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).

Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.

And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).

I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021.  Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.

So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold.


1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward

And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.


The complete and unaltered list of Clayton's predictions at Awards Circuit predictions are linked here.



THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER

I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.

COHEN MEDIA GROUP

Cohen's TFF History:

2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack

Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:

Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%

KINO LORBER

KL's TFF History:

2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain

Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:

There Is No Evil 50%


SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

The Sundance/IFC TFF History:

2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield

2015: 45 Years

2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2005: Three Times

Possible TFF #47 selection and its chances:

Undine 45%

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First Ten Bets for 2019 / The Distributors 2019: Many a Firm Part One / Variety's 31 Flavors of Oscar

Your final Friday of June has arrived...

FIRST TEN BETS FOR 2019

Well, it's here.

My very first "Ten Bets" for TFF #46.

I've been posting my guesses predictions for Telluride in this format since 2011.  Some years I have a better track record than others with the initial stab.  My track record throughout the years on the first Ten Bets looks like this:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

Last year I landed just below my average accuracy getting five titles correct: The Other Side of the Wind, Peterloo, Cold War, The Old Man and the Gun and The Front Runner.  But I also missed on Beautiful Boy, Sunset, Burning, Capernaum and the stunning miss on Barry Jenkins' If Beale Street Could Talk.

Other films that I listed on 2018's "just under the Ten Bets" that actually made it to The SHOW included: Boy Erased, The Eyes of Orson Welles, Girl, Shoplifters, and First Man.

Last year's half right/half wrong moved my average over the eight years of Ten Bets to 5.6 correct picks per year.'

And so with that as a backdrop...drumroll please...here's your first Ten Bets for TFF #46


10) The Good Liar
9) Little Women
8) A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
7) Jojo Rabbit
6) Family Romance LLC
5) Portrait of a Lady on Fire
4) Lucy in the Sky
3) Varda by Agnes
2) Nomadland
1) Parasite

Other films in serious play: The Goldfinch, Untitled Noah Baumbach Project, Untitled Todd Haynes Project, Atlantics, The Climb, The Laundromat, Radioactive, Country Music, The Lighthouse, Harriet, The Truth, Synonyms, Motherless Brooklyn, Ad Astra.


I'll be updating the Ten Bets each Friday for the rest of the summer and, as has become my custom, it will expand as we move through time.  Ultimately the final Ten Bets will come on Wednesday, August 28th with up to 25 films that I will predict or deduce that will make the TFF #46 lineup.


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2019: MANY A FIRM PART ONE

Casting a glance today at smaller distribution houses and the films that they have that could make the Telluride program:

-COHEN MEDIA GROUP

This company is a consistent T-ride player.  Its history:

2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack


So what's in the CMG larder:

Safy Nebbou's Berlin hit Who You Think I Am.  The film focuses on a 50 year old woman (Juliette Binoche) who creates a fake social media profile.

At the moment, it seems to be the only film CMG has but don't discount the possibility that they'll acquire a film this summer that might also make the lineup.


-KINO LORBER

Another group that has been a frequent entrant in Telluride's fest.  Kino Lorber's track record:

2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain


After five straight years with at least one film in play at TFF, Kino Lorber was absent last year.  They could return- and have a good chance to do so, this year with a film that scored well at the Berlin International Film Festival. 

Nadav Lapid's Synonyms won the top prize, the Golden Bear, last February.  It has played a bunch of international fests since then.

IMDb describes the film as " A young Israeli man absconds to Paris to escape his nationality, aided by his trusty Franco-Israeli dictionary.


-IFC FILMS

IFC also has, at least for the moment, a single film that seems possible for T-ride and that is Hirokazu Kore-eda's The Truth.   Described as a film that focuses on the stormy reunion between a daughter and her mother who is an actress involved in a sci-fi film in which she plays a woman who never ages.

After Kore-eda's stellar run in 2018 with Shoplifters which played TFF #45, won the Palme d'Or at Cannes  and was Oscar nominated for Best Foreign Language film, you have to think that The Truth would be under real consideration for a return to Telluride for the director.


Chances for today's batch of films:

Synonyms 50%
The Truth 50%
Who You Think I Am 40%

I'll have a look at some of the other smaller distribution outfits on Monday.


VARIETY'S 31 FLAVORS OF OSCAR

Variety's Tim Gray posted a lengthy piece on Tuesday called "Oscar: 31 Upcoming Films that Could Enter the Awards Race". 

There are actually more than 31.
 when you look at all the lists and categorizations.

As you might expect, a slew of potential T-ride selections are on his various category lists.

Among the possible T-ride players that Gray includes are (in the order he lists them):

Untitled Jay Roach Fox News Project
Ford v. Ferrari
Harriet
A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood
Little Women
Judy
The Aeronauts
The Laundromat
The Pope
Atlantics
Untitled Sally Potter Project (Molly)
Jojo Rabbit
The Woman in the Window
Joker...yea, I said it.
Motherless Brooklyn
The Good Liar
1917
Against All Enemies
The King
The Last Thing He Wanted
Les Miserables
The Lighthouse
Lucy in the Sky
Untitled Todd Haynes Project
Untitled Noah Baumbach Project


The complete article is linked here.


That's the Friday MTFB.  I'll have more on Monday.  Have a great weekend!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors 2018: Sundance Selects and IFC Films / The 4th Telluride Film Festival Re-visited /Marwen Trailer Looming?

Welcome to Tuesday...


THE DISTRIBUTORS 2018: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

The series of analyzing the films that specific distribution companies have in the pipeline and their chance at playing TFF #45 continues today looking at the partnered firms of Sundance Selects and IFC Films.

Here's the recent history of Sundance Selects and IFC Films with TFF:

Looking for a probable film from these outfits this year is a difficult proposition.  This again is likely a result of the growth of Amazon and Netflix within the film industry as well as the expansion of entities like A24, Neon and Annapurna.

My best prediction for a film from this combo is Roger Michell's documentary There's Nothing Like a Dame. 

The doc focuses on the lives and careers of four legendary British actresses: Eileen Atkins, Joan Plowright, Judi Dench and Maggie Smith.

Another reason to think that it might make a TFF play is Roger Michell's history with the fest.  Past Michell films at T-ride include Venus and Hyde Park on Hudson.

The film has no known release date at this time per IMDb all of which suggests that it could make the Labor Day lineup.

Chances: 30%.

2003: Touching the Void, Intermission

2004: Nobody Knows

2005: Three Times

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2013: Blue is the Warmest Color

2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2015: 45 Years

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield
2017: Eating Animals

THE 4TH TELLURIDE FILM FESTIVAL RE-VISITED

Counting down the last few beginning TFFs now as we look back to the fourth fest that was held Sept. 2-5, 1977.

Tributes: Michael Powell, Agnes Varda, Ben Carre

SHOWS:

The Apprenticeship of Duddy Kravitz
The Ascent
Black Narcissus
The Bluebird
Cleo from 5 to 7
Coup de Grace
Dagguerotypes
The Devil's Playground
A Geisha
I Know Where I'm Going
It Happened Here
La Pointe Courte
La Roi des Champs Elysees
Le Bonheur
The Light in the Dark
Lion's Love
The Magician
A Matter of Life and Death
Nine Months
Old San Francisco
Picture Show Man
Primary
Queen of Apollo
The Red Dance
Rudd Family Goes to Town
Scaramouche
The Spy in Black
The Squatter's Daughter
The Volunteer
Voyage to the Grand Tartary
Wake and Fright
Winstanley
A Woman's Face


GUESTS:

Werner Herzog
Ed Lachman
Martin Scorsese


MARWEN TRAILER LOOMING

Steve Carell on the set of Welcome to Marwen

Steve Carell has a couple of projects that could end up in front of Telluride audiences by the time we get to Labor Day weekend.  The more likely is Beautiful Boy co-starring actor of the moment Timothee Chalamet. 

The other is, like Beautiful Boy, based on a true story of a man finding a novel way of healing himself in the aftermath of a harsh attack.

Robert Zemeckis directs Welcome to Marwen.  Word from Anton Volkov/Trailer Track that a Marwen trailer drop is imminent.

Here's the story from Trailer Track.

I'll pass the trailer along as soon as possible.


That's your MTFB for this Tuesday.  More to come on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

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The Distributors: Sundance Selects and IFC Films / Battle of the Sexes New Trailer / Trailer for Stronger Also Raises T-ride Speculation

Welcome back from your weekend.  Mine was spent in the land of Breaking Bad and Better Call Saul...


THE DISTRIBUTORS: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

Among the more ubiquitous set of distribution firms at Telluride over the past several years has been the combination of Sundance Selects and IFC Films.

Over the run of more than a dozen years, the two partnered firms have racked up an impressive number of films that have screened at Telluride:

2003: Touching the Void, Intermission

2004: Nobody Knows

2005: Three Times

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2013: Blue is the Warmest Color

2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2015: 45 Years

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield

This year, between the two companies there appear to be four films that might be in play:

Perhaps the most likely is Jonas Capignano's A Ciambra.  The film played Cannes in the Director's Fortnight section and was, in part, executive produced by Martin Scorsese who has frequently been represented at T-ride in recent years as an executive producer.  Chances: 45%.

Also in play is Claire Denis' Bright Sunshine In which also played Cannes' Director's Fortnight. Denis, to the best of my knowledge has never played in the San Juans.  That could change this year. Chances: 40%.

The Death of Stalin from Veep and Into the Loop creator Armando Iannucci.  I'd love this as an addition to the TFF #44 lineup because of Iannucci and the potential for this crazy good cast (Steve Buscemi, Olga Kurylenko, Andrea Riseborough, Jeffrey Tambor, Michael Palin) to do something hilarious and magical.

Chances 35%.

Viceroy's House.  Played Berlin which usually has a couple of films make the TFF lineup.

Chances: 25%.

BATTLE OF THE SEXES NEW TRAILER

Fresh off of last week's speculation by Deadline's Pete Hammond that he was in the neighborhood of 99% convinced that the Jonathan Dayton and Valerie Faris film, Battle of the Sexes would play at The SHOW over Labor Day weekend came the news that a new trailer for the film had been released.


That's the second trailer for the film.  Here it is via YouTube:

After Hammond's assessment and my own take last week as I began to look at what we can expect from various distributors, in the case of Battle of the Sexes that's Fox Searchlight, it's possible that the film may show up at the end of this week on 2017's first "Ten Bets" for TFF #44. There's your tease for Friday's post.

Links to posts from Friday with coverage of the trailer's release.

From First Showing

From SlashFilm



TRAILER FOR STRONGER ALSO RAISES T-RIDE SPECULATION 

Just like the above story, David Gordon Green's Stronger dropped a trailer on Friday.  Paul Sheehan, writing at Gold Derby, suggested that the film would likely play fall film fests with Telluride mentioned alongside Venice and Toronto.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

I had Green's Our Brand is Crisis as a possible fest selection back in 2015.

Here are stories about the trailer and the film from the weekend:

Gold Derby

The Film Stage

The Film Experience


There's your MTFB for Monday, June 26, 2017.  More tomorrow...

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Distribution: Sundance Selects and IFC / Let the Sunshine In: Aquarius' First Trailer

Good Tuesday everyone...here's the latest on TFF #43...


DISTRIBUTION: SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC

Yesterday I posted the first of this summer's pieces examining film distribution companies that have had serious presence at Telluride over the last decade or so.  As such, I began with Sony Pictures Classics which has had the biggest presence averaging around five films each year at the fest for the past 13 years.

With that as our introduction, it seems logical to me to continue our examination of distribs by generally taking them in the order of their general prevalence at the fest over the last dozen years or so which leads to today's combo pack of distribution organizations.  I pair Sundance Selects and IFC (Independent Film Channel) as they are partners.  They have collectively averaged around three films at Telluride each year which puts them in the second spot among distribs at T-ride.  So, let's look at their history at Telluride for these past several years:

Sundance Selects/IFC Films has been at Telluride recently as follows:

2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love
2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday
2013: Blue is the Warmest Color
2014: Two Days, One Night, Seymour: An Introduction
2015: 45 Years

I, Daniel Blake trailer from YouTube

For 2016 consideration here is what IMDb reports for these distribution partners:

Sundance Selects:

Things to Come

Graduation

The Unknown Girl

I, Daniel Blake

Dancer

From the Land of the Moon

IFC Films

Personal Shopper

Analysis:  If you read yesterday's post, you already know that I'm under the impression that Personal Shopper is unlikely.  in as far as the Sundance Selects portion of the slates, I'm discounting From the Land of the Moon which was lambasted critically at Cannes and I know zippity-do-dah about Dancer (so...you know...it probably gets in and turns out to be the hit of the fest...).  The other four films have a real chance at making the T-ride lineup.

Things to Come has been in my sights since a successful play in Berlin.  Mia Hansen Love has also been to Telluride with Goodbye First Love...on the Sundance/IFC list above.  You might have noticed that I had it listed as being "close" to the "Ten Bets" list last Friday.

Graduation.  Critically well regarded at Cannes and also directed by a previous Telluride participant Cristian Mungiu who was in the SHOW in 2007 with 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days which you also see above as a past Sundance/IFC film.

I, Daniel Blake won the Palme which is enough for me to give it a serious look.  And finally...

The Unknown Girl which had a critically subdued reaction at Cannes but its from frequent Telluride players The Dardennes brothers which always makes a film a real threat to make the lineup.

As to IFC's Personal Shopper, if you saw my bit yesterday about Jeff Wells/Hollywood Elsewhere "hints", you'll know that it seems that the Olivier Assasyas film is probably not coming to T-ride.

Chances for these Sundance four:

The Unknown Girl 70%

Things to Come 65%

Graduation 50%

I, Daniel Blake 50%

Tomorrow's distributor: The Weinstein Company.

LET THE SUNSHINE IN: AQUARIUS' FIRST TRAILER

Aquarius starring Sonia Braga made a solid impression at Cannes in May.  Though it wasn't a winner in terms of prizes (many thought Braga would win Best Actress), it was universally lauded critically with the Reini Urban collective critical response putting it as the #8 film overall from all sections combined with a solid 7.22 average rating.

The film stars Braga as a woman who is the last hold out against a company that has bought all of the property surrounding the apartment in which she lives.

According to The Film Stage, Netflix currently has the U.S. distribution rights for the film which probably bodes well for a Telluride play as Netflix had its first presence at T-ride last year with Beasts of No Nation and Winter on Fire.

I had Aquarius just outside of last week's initial "Ten Bets" list.

The film's first international trailer appeared yesterday in a story from The Film Stage.  You can view it and peruse the story here:

https://thefilmstage.com/trailer/first-trailer-for-kleber-mendonca-filhos-cannes-drama-aquarius-starring-sonia-braga/



That's a wrap for Tuesday...more from MTFB tomorrow...

Contact MTFB at:

mpgort@gmail.com

OR on Twitter @Gort2

OR check out Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook:

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OR leave a comment...

Oscar at the Half/Best of the Week: SPC, Sundance Selects and IFC, Foxcatcher Poster and Trailer, Fassbender's Western, St. Vincent and The Tribe

Good Saturday to All...

OSCAR AT THE HALF

Both Kris Tapley at HitFix and Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter took the opportunity this past week to take a look at the awards landscape as we moved past the half way point on the 2014 calendar.  As you might expect, both fellows suggest that the bulk of films that are likely to contend are still to come.  I have linked both Kris' and Scott's posts here:

http://www.hitfix.com/in-contention/off-the-carpet-its-half-time-in-the-2014-2015-oscar-race

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscars-2015-standout-films-halfway-715729

BEST OF THE WEEK

Here's the best from Michael's Tellluride Film Blog from this past week...

TEN BETS 2014 #2

Here's your second edition of "Ten Bets" for films that I expect to appear at the 41st Telluride Film Festival. Last weeks list looked like this:

10) Salt of the Earth (Wenders)
9) Winter Sleep (Ceylan)
8) Red Army (Polsky)
7) Coming Home (Yimou)
6) Foxcatcher (Miller)
5) The Roosevelts (Burns)
4) Leviathan (Zvyagintsev)
3) Birdman (Inarritu)
2) Two Days, One Night (Dardennes)
1) Mr. Turner (Leigh)

  

After a week of tracking any Telluride news/rumors, here's your new "Ten Bets" (also, see the next story below):

10) Coming Home

9) Winter Sleep

8) Red Army

7) The Roosevelts

6) Queen of the Desert

5) Foxcatcher

4) Leviathan

3) Two Days, One Night

2) Mr. Turner

1) Birdman

NEWS FROM WELLS

"Birdman" trailer via YouTube

Jeffrey Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere posted a Telluride piece on Wednesday.  He claims that Alejandro Gonzalez Inarritu's "Birdman" is a Telluride lock...which I have suspected for over a year.  Also a lock, according to Wells: Werner Herzog's "Queen of the Desert" which has also been anticipated here, as long as it was finished.  Wells also says that Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" and David Fincher's "Gone Girl" are locked for the New York Fest and necessarily pre-empted for T-ride. 

The really interesting tidbit is the possibility of a Telluride presentation of Christopher Nolan's "Interstellar".  Up until last year, I would have thought this unlikely in the extreme but with the success of Telluride landing Alfonso Cuaron's "Gravity" last year...I could believe this.  I'm not there yet...but I don't rule it out either.

Wells also has a couple of comments about the Toronto Film Fests ultimatum vis-a-vis Telluride and you can find the entire piece here:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2014/07/50534/#more-50534

RUDDERLESS RELEASE IS SET

Well, you know, if you read this space with any regularity, I have been following, rather obsessively, the progress of William H. Macy's Sundance hit "Rudderless".  I've been privy to a lot of the backstage machinations on the film for more than five years and it's with great pleasure that I can pass on this news.  "Rudderless" will be released in the U.S. on Oct. 17th.  That info comes via a tweet from Macy himself who said yesterday:

"Gentle Folk,
RUDDERLESS opens in theaters Oct 17th. Good lord I'm jacked up about this movie. More later. Macy"

Though I haven't seen this tidbit anywhere in the media...I'm pretty sure that Macy's got his dates right.  No news as to how wide a release the Oct. 17th date will be as yet so I'll keep an eye out on that.  So, I suppose that makes this an "exclusive".  Or, at any rate, an exclusive for those of us who follow Macy on Twitter.

LOOKING AT THE SONY PICTURES CLASSICS SLATE

No distributor has historically had a stronger presence at the Telluride Film Festival than Sony Pictures Classics.  Fest hondos usually tell people that they program between 24 and 30 feature films each year.  For the last ten years, SPC has averaged 4.6 films per festival...or somewhere in the neighborhood of 18% of the T-ride slate each year comes from the SPC stable.


Here's what SPC has shown in Telluride in the last 11 years :

2013: The Invisible Woman, The Lunchbox, The Past, Tim's Vermeer and Jodorowsky's Dune.
2012: The Gatekeepers, At Any Price, Rust and Bone, No, Wadjda, Amour
2011: A Dangerous Method, In Darkness, Footnote, A Separation
2010: Incendies, Of Gods and Men, Tamara Drewe, Another Year, The Illusionist, Inside Job
2009: The Last Station, The White Ribbon, Coco Before Chanel, A Prophet, An Education
2008: Waltz with Bashir, I've Loved You So Long, O'Horten
2007: Brick Lane, When Did You Last See Your Father, Persepolis, The Band's Visit, The Counterfeiters
2006: Jindabyne, The Lives of Others, Volver, The Italian
2005: Breakfast on Pluto, Capote, Cache, The Child
2004: Being Julia, House of Flying Daggers, Bad Education, Merchant of Venice, Up and Down, Yes
2003: The Fog of War, My Life Without Me, The Triplets of Belleville, Young Adam

Here are SPC's films listed by IMDb as of today:

"Leviathan" 

"Jimmy's Hall"

"The Salt of the Earth"

"Foxcatcher"

"Wild Tales"

"Saint Laurent"

"Coming Home"

"Red Army"

"Mr. Turner"

"Aloft"

Six of these films were listed on last week's first "Ten Bets" list.  (Those six are: "Leviathan", "The Salt of the Earth", "Foxcatcher", "Coming Home", "Red Army" and "Mr. Turner").  At this point the other four: "Jimmy's Hall", "Wild Tales", "Saint Laurent" and "Aloft" are less likely to my way of thinking, but none of these ten are impossible for TFF.

SUNDANCE SELECTS TELLURIDE POSSIBLES

Only a player in distribution for just a few years, Sundance Selects has been present at the Telluride Film Festival for the last four fests at various levels of involvement.

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Tabloid
2011: The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love and Into the Abyss
2012: The Central Park Five, Everyday

2013: Blue is the Warmest Color

So you can expect one or possibly two of their films to make the grade Labor Day weekend.  Currently Sundance Selects has two Cannes films that could be programmed at Telluride:  Mathieu Amalric's "The Blue Room" and the almost 100% lock that is the Dardennes Brothers' "Two Days, One Night" with Marion Cotillard.

I'm at the point, and have been for a long time, that "Two Days" is a virtual TFF #41 certainty.  Amalric's "Blue Room" is a "could be" that I'd estimate at a 30% chance of making the T-ride program.

IFC FILMS AND TFF #41

IFC films has been a fairly substantial presence at Telluride over the past several years.  The firms highlight year probably was 2008 (the writer's strike year) when it was represented by 5 films.  IFC Films sometimes partners with Sundance Selects.

Here's the film record for IFC Films at Telluride for the past ten years:

2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina
2012: Frances Ha
2013: No Show

IFC Films averages 2.3 films per year at the Telluride Film Festival over the last decade. So...what's in the IFC pipeline that has Telluride implications?

The one that seems most likely is Olivier Assayas' "Clouds of Sils Maria" which also played Cannes.  After that there is also "Bird People", "The Salvation" and "Welcome to New York".  It seems to me that "The Salvation" might be the next most likely film but any of these four or none of them could make the T-ride lineup.

THE PLAYLIST SEEKS FALL FEST CLARITY

IndieWire blog The Playlist posted "The Fall Festival 50: Our Wish list for the Venice, Telluride and Toronto Film Festivals" yesterday and there is a LOT to digest from the lengthy list of films (which actually edges over the 50 mark when "other possibilities" are included.

The Playlist specifically mentions Telluride in connection with six films:  "Unbroken", "While We're Young", "Men, Women and Children", "99 Homes", "True Story" and "Kill the Messenger".  Of that list, I'd agree on the Noah Baumbach "While We're Young".  All of the others have "issues" that may work against their inclusion.  I would love to see "Unbroken" make the trip to the San Juans though.

Four films that I think have some Telluride potential are listed in the article without any specific guess as to where they might end up: "Carol", "Suite Francais", "A Most Violent Year" and "Queen of the Desert"...though, if "Queen" is ready and doesn't play Telluride, I'll be stunned.

The post also suggests that Jon Stewart's "Rosewater" seems to be lock for Toronto and unlikely for Telluride.  It also says "The Imitation Game" is likely for TIFF and though they don't specifically rule out Telluride, an early slot for the Benedict Cumberbatch starrer at TIFF would close the door.  Finally, the Playlist Staff suggests that both Alejandro Inarritu's "Birdman" and Paul Thomas Anderson's "Inherent Vice" are probably headed to Venice which doesn't preclude a Telluride play.  As regular readers of this space know, I'm high on "Birdman's" chances and less bullish on "Vice".

The whole Playlist post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-fall-festival-50-our-wishlist-for-the-venice-telluride-and-toronto-film-festivals-20140630


FOXCATCHER POSTER FEATURES TATUM

It was all over the Twitterverse yesterday.  A new poster for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher" (#6 on last week's "Ten Bets" list) featuring Channing Tatum.  You see it above.  Below are a smattering of the posts from various sources with the poster from yesterday.

Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/new-foxcatcher-poster-puts-channing-tatum-out-front/

Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/channing-tatum-stares-us-first-domestic-foxcatcher-poster/

People:

http://www.people.com/article/channing-tatum-foxcatcher-trailer-photo-steve-carell-mark-ruffalo-oscar-buzz?

IndieWire:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/youll-take-channing-tatum-seriously-in-this-teaser-poster-for-oscar-bait-foxcatcher-20140630

The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/channing-tatum-stares-you-down-in-first-poster-for-bennett-millers-foxcatcher-20140630

FASSBENDER'S WESTERN

"Slow West" photo from Thompson on Hollywood

I have made several mentions of Justin Kurzel's "MacBeth" starring Michael Fassbender and Marion Cotillard.  I've even suggested that we could have a Cotillard "Twofer" along with "Two Days, One Night".  But Fassbender could be a "Twofer" on his own as well.  Fassbender stars in "Slow West" along with Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Road).  Anne Thompson posted a look at the new film and a hint at the outset that it's a likely going to show at either Telluride or Toronto.  Look at Anne's story here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/first-look-michael-fassbender-in-frontier-western-slow-west-20140629

Anne points out in the article that the film is produced by the team that was behind "A King's Speech", "Shame" and "Tracks".  It's got both See Saw films and Film4 behind it and both have had a good past relationship with Telluride.  All this leads me to believe that I need to really think about "Slow West" as a very real possibility.

TEASERS AND TRAILERS

Two new view of films that might be in the mix for Telluride.  First, a new trailer for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  I just get more excited every time I see something new about the film.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

And an accompanying story from The Dissolve:

http://thedissolve.com/news/2636-heres-a-terrifying-new-teaser-trailer-for-foxcatch/

Meanwhile, I'm warming to the idea that the latest Bill Murray flick could be in the T-ride mix.  "St. Vincent" stars Murray in full irresponsibility mode as an adult that develops a relationship with an adolescent.  It's in The Weinstein Company wheelhouse and could conceivably be a better shot at Oscar consideration than "Hyde Park on Hudson".  Additionally, I got the feeling that Murray really enjoyed his Telluride visit with "Hyde Park" two years ago.  Here's that trailer also from YouTube:

And, again, an accompanying story from The Dissolve:

http://thedissolve.com/news/2628-bill-murray-makes-the-world-better-in-his-own-way-/

COULD "THE TRIBE" MAKE NOISE IN TELLURIDE?

Alex Billington of FirstShowing.net reports that Drafthouse Films has acquired U.S. distribution for "The Tribe".  The film is told completely with sign language and without subtitles and was quite the buzz producer at Cannes in May.  

Drafthouse was represented at Telluride in 2012 with Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Act of Killing"...By the way, I fully expect Oppenhiemer's sequel to screen at TFF #41, "The Look of Silence".

Here's the link to the Billington post that includes a slightly NSFW trailer:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/see-the-trailer-for-drafthouses-new-cannes-acquisition-the-tribe/

More on Monday...enjoy your weekend!

Follow/Like Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook and Twitter (@Gort2)

LATE BREAKING: RIP LOUIS ZAMPERINI/IFC Films and TFF #41/Teasers and Trailers/Could "The Tribe" Make Noise in Telluride/

LATE BREAKING: RIP LOUIS ZAMPERINI

Overnight we got reports that American hero, Olympian and the focus of the upcoming film "Unbroken" Louis Zamperini has died.  Zamperini was 97 and will has been something of a presence in the media these last few months as the P.R. machine began to crank up for the Angelina Jolie film.  I have linked the Awards Daily coverage of Zamperini's passing:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/blog/r-i-p-louis-zamperini-olympian-and-wwii-hero/


IFC FILMS AND TFF #41

IFC films has been a fairly substantial presence at Telluride over the past several years.  The firms highlight year probably was 2008 (the writer's strike year) when it was represented by 5 films.  IFC Films sometimes partners with Sundance Selects.

Here's the film record for IFC Films at Telluride for the past ten years:

2003: Touching the Void, Intermission
2004: Nobody Knows
2005: Three Times
2006: Deep Water, Indigenes
2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days, Jar City
2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good, the Bad and the Weird
2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding Trilogy, Life During Wartime, Vincere
2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos
2011: Into the Abyss, Pina
2012: Frances Ha
2013: No Show

IFC Films averages 2.3 films per year at the Telluride Film Festival over the last decade. So...what's in the IFC pipeline that has Telluride implications?

The one that seems most likely is Olivier Assayas' "Clouds of Sils Maria" which also played Cannes.  After that there is also "Bird People", "The Salvation" and "Welcome to New York".  It seems to me that "The Salvation" might be the next most likely film but any of these four or none of them could make the T-ride lineup.


TEASERS AND TRAILERS

Two new view of films that might be in the mix for Telluride.  First, a new trailer for Bennett Miller's "Foxcatcher".  I just get more excited every time I see something new about the film.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

And an accompanying story from The Dissolve:

http://thedissolve.com/news/2636-heres-a-terrifying-new-teaser-trailer-for-foxcatch/

Meanwhile, I'm warming to the idea that the latest Bill Murray flick could be in the T-ride mix.  "St. Vincent" stars Murray in full irresponsibility mode as an adult that develops a relationship with an adolescent.  It's in The Weinstein Company wheelhouse and could conceivably be a better shot at Oscar consideration than "Hyde Park on Hudson".  Additionally, I got the feeling that Murray really enjoyed his Telluride visit with "Hyde Park" two years ago.  Here's that trailer also from YouTube:

And, again, an accompanying story from The Dissolve:

http://thedissolve.com/news/2628-bill-murray-makes-the-world-better-in-his-own-way-/

COULD "THE TRIBE" MAKE NOISE IN TELLURIDE?

Alex Billington of FirstShowing.net reports that Drafthouse Films has acquired U.S. distribution for "The Tribe".  The film is told completely with sign language and without subtitles and was quite the buzz producer at Cannes in May.  

Drafthouse was represented at Telluride in 2012 with Joshua Oppenheimer's "The Act of Killing"...By the way, I fully expect Oppenhiemer's sequel to screen at TFF #41, "The Look of Silence".

Here's the link to the Billington post that includes a slightly NSFW trailer:

http://www.firstshowing.net/2014/see-the-trailer-for-drafthouses-new-cannes-acquisition-the-tribe/

More tomorrow, including this week's "Ten Bets".

Follow/Like Michael's Telluride Film Blog on Facebook/Twitter (@Gort2)