Indiewire Reveals? / Ten Bets #3 / Oscar Ramblings / The Last Distribs

INDIEWIRE REVEALS?

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know".  Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.

Here's the Thompson rundown:

The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).


The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:

Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock

 I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.

The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul.  That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own.  If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.

The complete article is linked here.


TEN BETS #3

Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above.  But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:


10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite


Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note:  this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020.  That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week.  I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today.  So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:


10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite

Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.

Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.


OSCAR RAMBLINGS

I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April.  Here me out...

What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021?  I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date.   I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel.  I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.

So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?

Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above:  Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".

What films then do become players?  Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.

Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.

Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list:  Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May).  Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated.  Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).

Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).

Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.

And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).

I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021.  Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.

So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold.


1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward

And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.


The complete and unaltered list of Clayton's predictions at Awards Circuit predictions are linked here.



THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER

I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.

COHEN MEDIA GROUP

Cohen's TFF History:

2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack

Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:

Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%

KINO LORBER

KL's TFF History:

2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain

Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:

There Is No Evil 50%


SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

The Sundance/IFC TFF History:

2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield

2015: 45 Years

2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2005: Three Times

Possible TFF #47 selection and its chances:

Undine 45%

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Two Years Running / Blues and Brews Bows Out of 2020 / Add to Amazon / Nomadland Is Imminent / The Distribs: Bleecker Street / Netflix Adds the Chicago 7

TWO YEARS RUNNING

For the second consecutive year Michael's Telluride Film Blog has been denied press accreditation for the actual fest itself.  Here's a screenshot of the email informing me yesterday afternoon:

So again, after having been granted that status from 2011-2018, TFF has said no. 

When I was denied last year, I asked at the time if there was a specific reason (I've sent that question again this year) and also if there was an appeal process.  I never got an answer.

As I said last year, I fully grasp that the fest can chose who to accredit who not to accredit.  I get that.

Further, I understand that I have published articles that have not been well received within the fest's hierarchy. This past year I have tried to be circumspect with regard to the stories I post and have, on a number of occasions, self-edited as I determined that a particular  thought or story might land badly.  That doesn't seem to have curried any favor.

And, of course, I'm aware that the very point of the blog (sussing out what might play at the fest) is antithetical to the fest's goal of keeping the lineup under wraps.

Still, after having been granted the status for eight years and then being denied for these last two, I am curious as to whether MTFB will ever be accredited again. 


BLUES AND BREWS BOWS OUT FOR 2020

The Telluride Daily Planet reported yesterday that the Telluride Blues and Brews Fest has been canceled for this year.  That leaves TFF as the only fest left standing for Telluride this year.  Blues and Brews was scheduled for Sept. 18-20-two weeks after The SHOW.

Festival director Steve Gumble is quoted in the paper with this:

“We held on to each day and each update and watched our hopes of holding Blues & Brews fade as each day passed.  Having said that, it is with tremendous sadness that I sit here forced to write what I thought I would never have to write — the 27th Telluride Blues & Brews Festival will be canceled for 2020. This is the toughest decision I have made, but without a doubt, it is the right thing to do.”

The complete story is here.


ADD TO AMAZON

Last Monday I took a look at the films that I thought might be possible TFF #47 players from Amazon Studios.  Since then, Amazon Prime Video has acquired a new foreign film title that probably should enter in our consideration

Variety reported on Monday that the streaming service had snagged Chilean hit Jailbreak.  The film is based on the true story escape that occurred in 1990.  Variety reports that the film is Chile's biggest hit in the past few years.

My guestimate at the chances of Jailbreak making a stop in Telluride are 25%.

The Variety story is linked here.


NOMADLAND IS IMMINENT

Chloe Zhao's Nomadland seems to be done...complete...wrapped and locked.  Next Best Picture's Will Mavity tweeted the info yesterday that Nomadland has received its MPAA rating.  It's R by-the-by.

Here's Will's Tweet:

In the comments following Will's Tweet are a couple of references to its possible inclusion for Telluride.

Many readers know that I had Nomadland on my list for a good long while last year as a TFF #46 potential title.  I even still listed as a "possible" choice outside the final 25 "Bets" posted the day before Telluride announced its lineup.

Nomadland stars Frances McDormand.  Its IMDb listing is linked here.



THE DISTRIBS: BLEECKER STREET

Bleecker Street Media is the definition of a specialty house/film distribution company.  Their presence at Telluride over the years has been spotty but not invisible.  Last year they were represented at Telluride with Kitty Green's The Assistant which has gotten very good reviews since its theatrical release in late January.  Some have included it in their Ten Best lists for the first half of 2020.

The Bleecker Street T-ride profile looks like this:

2019- The Assisstant
2015- Beasts of No Nation (partnered with Netflix)


As we look to TFF for 2020 Bleecker could have a couple of films that we should consider:

The Secrets We Keep from director Yuval Adler whose Bethlehem was included by TFF in 2013.  The Secrets We Keep is a post-World War II story of Holocaust survivors trying to make their way in New York.

The other project is John Patrick Shanley's Wild Mountain Thyme.  Shanley is an Oscar, Pulitzer and Tony award winning writer.  He previously directed Doubt (Based on his own stage play) and Joe Versus the Volcano.  Wild Mountain Thyme stars Emily Blunt, Jon Hamm and Jamie Dornan.  IMdB's description of the film reads:


"A pair of star-crossed lovers in Ireland get caught up in their family's land dispute."

My guestimate:

The Secrets We Keep 45%
Wild Mountain Thyme 20%


NETFLIX ADDS THE CHICAGO 7

After weeks of teasing that a deal was probably coming and reported hangups regarding international rights, Netflix has acquired Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7 from Paramount for $56 million.  In a normal year that would shoot the film right to the top of my Telluride chart but because Netflix has announced that they're not taking any of their films to any of the festivals that won't be happening.

Now, just for fun, close readers of this space have noticed that I have picked up on a couple hints here and there that the Netflix decision may not be as ironclad as it seems.  I have wondered if we might see some Netflix titles as a "surprise" in Telluride.  Those aforementioned hints, Netflix's presence at the fest over the last half decade, Netflix saying that they will continue sponsoring fests- they sponsored the Chuck Jones Theater last year and the Labor Day Picnic in 2018 and I believe they'll be a sponsor of some sort again this year- all make me think that there's at least a glimmer of a chance that some of their projects could end up in the San Juans over Labor Day weekend.

Now that list of projects includes Sorkin's Chicago 7 film.

Variety has the acquisition story here.

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