Indiewire Reveals? / Ten Bets #3 / Oscar Ramblings / The Last Distribs

INDIEWIRE REVEALS?

Indiewire's Anne Thompson posted on Thursday a story called "Film Festivals 2020: Here's What We Do Know".  Within the article she counts down a list of films that she attributes to "sources" that will be on the list of 20 or so films that Telluride has said they will announce as those that would have been selected for TFF #47.

Here's the Thompson rundown:

The Telluride 2020 program, sources say, includes such titles as Francis Lee’s lesbian romance “Ammonite” (also a TIFF selection, as well as Cannes), Gianfranco Rosi’s Middle East documentary “Notturno,” Chloe Zhao’s road movie “Nomadland” (Searchlight) starring Oscar-winner Frances McDormand, Wes Anderson’s “The French Dispatch” (October 16, Searchlight), Steve McQueen’s anthology films “Mangrove” and “Lovers Rock” (BBC, Amazon Prime), and Pixar’s animated “Soul” (November 20, Disney).


The list here looks reasonable and comports pretty well with what I had on last week's Ten Bets. Reviewing Anne's list and the last Ten Bets finds that both lists include:

Ammonite
Notturno
Nomadland
Mangrove
Lover's Rock

 I'd also point out that I've been sniffing around about The French Dispatch being in the possibility column for TFF #47 since the film's premiere date was pushed to October.

The real surprise to me is the inclusion of Pete Docter's Pixar release Soul.  That's a film that I would have never tripped to on my own.  If it shows up on the list of TFF #47 films that Telluride organizers say will be revealed in the next few days, then that is quite the plum for the Telluride that might have been.

The complete article is linked here.


TEN BETS #3

Updating the Ten Bets this Monday with the new information from the Indiewire story referenced above.  But before I do that, here's a look at last week's Ten Bets:


10) Undine
9) Forgotten We'll Be
8) The Secrets We Keep
7) Notturno
6) Small Axe (Mangrove and/or Lover's Rock)
5) John Prine: Hello In There
4) Fireball
3) Nomadland
2) There Is No Evil
1) Ammonite


Before this week's Ten Bets, a quick note:  this could be the last Ten Bets for 2020.  That will be true should TFF announce their list of selected films this week.  I think it's very possible for that announcement to come as early as today.  So, that said, here's the latest Ten Best for MTFB:


10) Fireball
9) John Prine: Hello In There
8) There Is No Evil
7) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
5) Lover's Rock (Small Axe)
4) Mangrove (Small Axe)
3) Notturno
2) Nomadland
1) Ammonite

Other possibilities: Undine, Forgotten We'll Be, Untitled Garbus/Cortes Voting Rights Documentary, The Secrets We Keep, American Utopia and French Exit.

Look for a MTFB SPECIAL POST should the TFF announcement happen this week.


OSCAR RAMBLINGS

I'm kind of wondering if "Oscar Season" is really already locked for this year despite The Academy bumping the eligibility window of the end of February 2021 and the actual Oscar date to the end of April.  Here me out...

What if Tenet gets delayed all the way to Summer 2021?  I think that's a real possibility especially in light of rumors swirling that the last Daniel Craig Bond film-No Time to Die- will be headed to a Summer 2021 date.   I also think that's a real possibility for Spielberg's West Side Story, Villenueve's Dune, Greengrass' News of the World, Caro's Mulan, Jenkins' Wonder Woman 1984 and Scott's The Last Duel.  I can't see any of these films being debuted in anything but a theatrical release of some kind and increasingly I think that's unlikely to happen in any meaningful sense by Feb. 28, 2021.

So posit that the above scenario is true... what films become Oscar players with the films that are already known?

Start with the idea that I'm right about them and eliminating the films listed above:  Clayton Davis at Awards Circuit currently has Tenet at #7, West Side Story at #10, Dune at #4, News of the World at #18, Mulan at #17, Wonder Woman 1984 #26, No Time to Die at #44 and The Last Duel as an "Unranked Contender".

What films then do become players?  Again, I'm including Awards Circuit rankings for each film.

Films that we believe will be on the TFF #47 list when it's announced: Nomadland #1, Ammonite #3, Soul #6, The French Dispatch #8.

Films that I thought could be TFF players but haven't shown up on the Cannes list:  Annette #11 (already off to 2021 and a rumored bow at Cannes next May).  Stillwater #13 (moved off its Nov. 6th date and not yet re-dated.  Waiting to see if a pre-Feb. 28th drop is useful?), C'mon C'mon #14, On the Rocks #16 (I'll bet it holds off until Cannes).

Films that played TFF #46: The Assistant #36, First Cow (UR).

Sundance 2020 films: The Father #15, Minari #20, Never Rarely Sometimes Always #37.

And then there's the load of Netflix titles: Mank #2, The Trial of the Chicago 7 #5, Hillbilly Elegy #9, The White Tiger #12, Da 5 Bloods #19 (already out, of course), Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (UR), Rebecca (UR).

I'm thinking that Netflix may not roll all of these films before Feb. 2021.  Perhaps they also will hold some of these titles back for the possibility of Cannes or the Oscars for 2021.

So, an adjustment of Clayton's predictions that skip the BIG films I've listed above as well as films that appear to be off to post Feb. 2021 but includes the Netflix titles leaves us with the following top 20 (with TFF #47 possibles in Bold.


1) Nomadland
2) Mank
3) Ammonite
4) The Trial of the Chicago 7
5) Soul
6) The French Dispatch
7) Hillbilly Elegy
8) The White Tiger
9) Stillwater (???)
10) The Father
11) Da 5 Bloods
12) Minari
13) Greyhound
14) Palm Springs
15) Untitled Fred Hampton Project
16) The Glorias
17) I'm Thinking of Ending Things
18) Those Who Wish Me Dead
19) Respect
20) Onward

And, of course, if Clayton is close to right... TFF #47 films, such as they are, could still be serious players in this weird Oscar season.


The complete and unaltered list of Clayton's predictions at Awards Circuit predictions are linked here.



THE LAST DISTRIBS: COHEN MEDIA, SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS AND KINO LORBER

I'm closing out the summer's look at distributors that have some Telluride history and films that could be named on TFF"s forthcoming list of films that would have programmed at The 2021 version of The SHOW.

COHEN MEDIA GROUP

Cohen's TFF History:

2019: No Titles
2018: The Great Buster
2017: The Insult, Face Places
2016: Journey Through French Cinema
2015: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Marguerite, Rams
2014: Magician
2013: No Show
2012: The Attack

Possible TFF #47 titles and their chance to play:

Forgotten We'll Be 50%
Operation Mincemeat 20%

KINO LORBER

KL's TFF History:

2019: Beanpole
2018: No Titles
2017: Film Worker
2016: Fire at Sea
2015: Ixcanul, Sembene!, Taxi
2014: The Decent One
2013: Burning Bush, La Maison de la Radio, Manuscripts Don't Burn
2010: La Quattro Volte, Poetry
2007: Blind Mountain

Possible TFF #47 title and its chance to play:

There Is No Evil 50%


SUNDANCE SELECTS AND IFC FILMS

The Sundance/IFC TFF History:

2019: No titles
2018: Non-fiction
2017: Eating Animals

2016: Things to Come, Graduation, Wakefield

2015: 45 Years

2014: Two Days One Night, Seymour: An Introduction

2013: Blue Is the Warmest Color

2012: Frances Ha, The Central Park Five, Everyday

2011: Into the Abyss, Pina, The Forgiveness of Blood, The Kid with a Bike, Goodbye First Love

2010: The Princess of Montpensier, Carlos, Tabloid

2009: Fish Tank, Red Riding, Life During Wartime, Vincere

2008: Hunger, Gomorrah, Flame and Citron, Everlasting Moments, The Good the Bad and The Weird

2007: Secret Sunshine, 4 Months 3 Weeks 2 Days, Jar City

2006: Deep Water, Indigenes, Day Night Day Night

2005: Three Times

Possible TFF #47 selection and its chances:

Undine 45%

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

And the Golden Bear Goes to... / The Critics Berlin / More Additions to TFF History

AND THE GOLDEN BEAR GOES TO...

Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil took the top prize. the Golden Bear, from the just concluded Berlin International Films Festival.  The award came from the Jury led this year by Jeremy Irons.

Rasoulof was a recipient of a tribute from the Telluride Film Festival in 2013 during TFF #40.  That included a screening of Manuscripts Don't Burn.  Rasoulof was back in Telluride in 2017 with A Man of Integrity.

Rasoulof was not allowed to attend the Berlin Fest by the Iranian government.

The Golden Bear win doesn't guarantee that There Is No Evil ends up at Telluride but it also likely doesn't harm its potential.  The last Golden Bear winner to play TFF was Fire at Sea in 2016.  Other recent Golden Bear winners that went on to play TFF include Asghar Farhadi's A Separation and Jafar Panahi's Taxi.


THE CRITICS BERLIN

Returning to the massive database of critical response to the films screened at Berlin that is compiled by Reini Urban; here is the final look at films that I have highlighted as possible considerations for TFF #47  (on a 10 point scale)

Pinocchio 7.39
The Woman Who Ran 7.17
Undine 6.89
There Is No Evil 6.76
Charlatan 6.20
The Salt of Tears 5.49
Irradiated 5.43
Siberia 4.95

The complete rundown is here.

Metacritic also had a critical compilation post over the weekend for Berlin films and among the films they mentioned from the above list were (on a 100 point scale):

There Is No Evil 79
The Woman Who Ran 81
Charlatan 65
Undine 69
The Salt of Tears 57

Metacritic's article is linked here.


And finally, Indiewire's Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson talk about the Berlinale in this week's episode of their podcast Screen Talk.  Both Pinocchio and Undine are specifically mentioned.

The link to Screen Talk is here.

Thompson, Kohn and David Ehrlich collaborated to also publish an article detailing the films that they thought were the 10 best of Berlin.  That list included: Charlatan, Last and First Men, Pinocchio, There Is No Evil and The Woman Who Ran.

I have linked that article here.

Last word on Berlin, for now...look out for Johann Johannsson's Last and First Men.  The late Icelandic composer's first attempt at directing a feature film.  Johannsson was Oscar nominated for the scores for Sicario and The Theory of Everything.  Just got a feeling.


MORE ADDITIONS TO TFF HISTORY

I added the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Telluride Film Festivals to the Extended Telluride History Part Two: 1996-Present page. 

2011 notable films included: Albert Nobbs, The Artist, A Dangerous Method, Into the Abyss, A Separation, Shame and We Need to Talk About Kevin.

2012: Notable films included:The Act of Killing, Amour, Argo, The Central Park Five, Frances Ha, No, Rust and Bone and Stories We Tell.

2013 notable films included: 12 Years a Slave, All Is Lost, Blue Is the Warmest Color, Gloris. Gravity, Ida, Inside Llewyn Davis, Manuscripts Don't Burn, The Missing Picture, Nebraska, The Past, Prisoners and Under the Skin.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

The Critics Weigh In on Berlin / The History Continues

THE CRITICS WEIGH IN ON BERLIN

The Berlin International Film Festival continues apace toward its Sunday conclusion and the announcement of award winners in various categories including the announcement of this year's winner of the Golden Bear award to the Best Film in the competition section. 

As BIFF has passed its half way point, here's a look at the critical consensus for some of the titles playing there that, at least initially, have some TFF #47 potential:

Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio 7.32 (on a 10 point scale)
Hong Sang-soo's The Woman Who Ran 7.24
Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan 7.00
Christian Petzold's Undine 6.79
Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears 5.45
Abel Ferrara's Siberia 5.09


Still not charting with Reni Urban's critics collective:

Rithy Panh's Irradiated
Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil


The complete list is linked here.


THE HISTORY CONTINUES

Since Monday's post I have added the text for the 37th Telluride Film Festival Extended History entry on.  2010's festival boasted such titles as:

127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
The King's Speech
Tabloid

Guests at YFF #37 included:

Danny Boyle
Colin Firth
James Franco
Andrew Garfield
Ed Harris
Laura Linney
Carey Mulligan
Alexander Payne
Geoffrey Rush

Check out 2010 as well as the other recently added years (2006-2009) on the Expanded History Page 1996-Present.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays

Notes from Berlin / Now There Is More History / The Critical Reaction to Berlin Films

NOTES FROM BERLIN

The 70th Berlin International Film Festival is in full swing and runs until Sunday.  I have linked some posts from reporters covering the festival about specific films I have my eye on as possible players in as far as TFF #47 might be concerned.

From The Hollywood Reporter here are looks at:

Rithy Pahn's Irradiated

Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil

Both films are set to bow in Germany on Friday.

Additionally, prior to its Berlin play, producers released a trailer for Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears.  Here that is via YouTube:

ALso releasing a trailer for its Berlin appearance is Able Ferrara's Siberia.  That is linked here also from YouTube:

NOW THERE IS MORE HISTORY

After a good deal of procrastination, I have started the expansion of the Expanded History of the Telluride Film Festival.  For quite some time I have had the years from 2006 to the present represented in the Expanded History through links to the programs for those years that are housed at the Official TFF website.

I've been saying for some time that I would get the information from those years on the Expanded History page formatted as I have all of the years of the festival and just have been sluggish in getting that accomplished.

However, this past week, I actually cranked that up and added the text for 2006-2009.  If you go to the Expanded History 1996-Present page you'll see that info displayed.  Over the next few weeks I plan to get the rest of the last 13 years worth of text on that page as well.

Take look!

AND FINALLY...THE CRITICAL REACTION TO BERLIN FILMS

As has been the case for a few years, I'm looking at the critical tracking of films that play at the Berlin fest to get a sense of which films might be catching the eye of any Telluride programmer that might be in Germany at the this moment. 

To that end I'm checking the critical consensus site:

http://cannes-ratings.herokuapp.com/Berlinale2020

Thus far, and it is incredibly early in as far as the critics' responses are concerned, the top film that I've had my eye on in terms of the critical combo is Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio.  Christian Ptezold's Undine is also doing well in early critical response. 

I'll check back in with the consensus on Thursday.


EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @Gort2 

MTFB's Facebook Page

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursda