Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
The Venice Film Festival announced its 2021 lineup this morning. Here's the list via Indiewire:
Opening Night
“Parallel Mothers,” Pedro Almodóvar (in competition)
Competition/Venezia 78
“Mona Lisa and the Blood Moon,” Ana Lily Amirpour
“Un Autre Monde,” Stephanie Brize
“The Power of the Dog,” Jane Campion
“America Latina,” Damiano D’Innocenzo and Fabio D’Innocenzo
“L’Evenement,” Audrey Diwan
“Official Competition,” Gaston Duprat and Mariana Cohn
“Il Buco,” Michelangelo Frammartino
“Sundown,” Michel Franco
“Illusions Perdues,” Xavier Giannoli
“The Lost Daughter,” Maggie Gyllenhaal
“Spencer,” Pablo Larrain
“Freaks Out,” Gabrielle Mainetti
“Qui Rido Io,” Mario Martone
“On the Job: The Missing 8,” Erik Matti
“Leave No Traces,” Jan P. Matuszynski
“Captain Volkonogov Escaped,” Natasha Merkulova and Aleksey Chupov
“The Card Counter,” Paul Schrader
“The Hand of God,” Paolo Sorrentino
“Reflection,” Valentyn Vasyanovych
“La Caja,” Lorenzo Vigas
Out of Competition (Fiction)
“Il Bambino Nascosto,” Roberto Ando (closing film of the festival)
“Les Choses Humaines,” Yvan Attal
“Ariaferma,” Leonardo di Costanzo
“Halloween Kills,” David Gordon Green
“La Scoula Cattolica,” Stefano Mordini
“Old Hnery,” Potsy Ponciroli
“The Last Duel,” Ridley Scott
“Dune,” Denis Villeneuve
“Last Night in Soho,” Edgar Wright
“Scenes From a Marriage” (Episodes 1-5), Hagai Levi
Out of Competition (Non Fiction)
“Life of Crime 1984-2020,” Jon Alpert
“Tranchees,” Loup Bureau
“Viaggio Nel Crepuscolo,” Augusto Contento
“Republic of Silence,” Diana el Jeiroudi
“Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song,” Daniel Geller and Dayna Goldfine
“Deandre#Deandre Storia Di Un Impiegato,” Roberta Lena
“Django and Django,” Luca Rea
“Ezio Bosso. Le Cose Che Restano,” Giorgio Verdelli
Out of Competition (Special Screenings)
“Le 7 Giornate di Bergamo,” Simona Ventura
“Il Cinema Al Tempo del Covid,” Andrea Segre
Out of Competition (Short Films)
“Plastic Semiotic,” Radu Jude
“The Night,” Tsai Ming-Liang
“Sad Film,” Vasili (Pseudonym)
Horizons/Orizzonti
“Les Promesses,” Thomas Kruithof
“Atlantide,” Yuri Ancarani
“Miracle,” Bogdan George Apetri
“Pilgrims,” Laurynas Bareisa
“Il Paradiso Del Pavone,” Laura Bispuri
“The Falls,” Chung Mong-Hong
“El Hoyo en la Cerca,” Joaquin Del Paso
“Amira,” Mohamed Diab
“A Plein Temps,” Eric Gravel
“107 Mothers,” Peter Kerekes
“Vera Dreams of the Sea,” Kaltrina Krasniqi
“White Building,” Kavich Neang
“Anatomy of Time,” Jakrawal Nilthamrong
“El Otro Tom,” Rodrigo Pla and Laura Santullo
“El Gran Movimiento,” Kiro Russo
“Once Upon a Time in Calcutta,” Aditya Vikram Sengupta
“Rhino,” Oleg Sentsov
“True Things,” Harry Wootliff
“Inu-Oh,” Yuasa Masaaki
Horizons/Orizzonti Extra
“Land of Dreams,” Sherin Neshat and Shoja Azari
“Costa Brava,” Mounia Akl
“Mama, I’m Home,” Vladimir Bitokov
“Ma Nuit,” Antoinette Boulat
“La Ragazza Ha Volato,” Wilma Labate
“7 Prisoners,” Alexandre Moratto
“The Blind Man Who Did Not Want to See Titanic,” Teemu Nikki
“La Macchina Delle Immagini di Alfredo C.,” Roland Sejko
Your best possible Telluride players from this include:
Madres Paralelas/Almodovar
The Power of the Dog/Campion
The Card Counter/Schrader
Spencer/Larrain
The Hand of God/Sorrentino
Dune/Villeneuve
The Last Duel/Scott
The next nugget of info from Venice that will aid us will be when they release the screening schedule. We already know that Almodovar's Madres Paralelas opens the fest on Sept. 1 and believe that Dune will screen Sept. 3rd. For a film to make the trans-Atlantic jump from Venice to T-ride, realistically the last date it could play Venice and make it to Telluride is that Sept. 3rd date. Maybe Sept. 4th. but that'd be a real stretch.
With the announcement this morning of the lineup for the Venice Fest also came the release of a teaser trailer for that Fest's opening night film: Pedro Almodovar's Madres Paraleas. I think it snads a good chance to play at TFF #48.
Here's the teaser from YouTube:
CHARLATAN TRIALER RELEASED
Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan was a choice for last year's cancelled TFF #47. The film officially released in the U.S, over this past weekend.
After several weeks of posting and updating the topline Oscar categories (Picture, Director, Acting and Writing), here's my first stab at additional categories beyond those eight. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Another Round
2) Quo Vadis Aida
3) Collective
4) I'm No Longer Here
5) The Night of Kings
6) The Two of Us
7) Dear Comrades
8) A Sun
9) My Little Sister
10) Charlatan
Other Possibles: Sun Children, This Is a Burial Not a Resurrection, Notturno
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Stacey Abrams from All In: The Fight for Democracy
1) Crip Camp: A Disability Revolution
2) Dick Johnson Is Dead
3) Collective
4) Boys State
5) Time
6) All In: The Fight for Democracy
7) Welcome to Chechnya
8) The Truffle Hunters
9) John Lewis: Good Trouble
10) The Dissident
Other Possibles: The Way I See It, MLK/FBI, Totally Under Control, The Social Dilemma
CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) Mank
2) Nomadland
3) News of the World
4) Tenet
5) Judas and the Black Messiah
6) Minari
7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8) Da 5 Bloods
9) The Trial of the Chicago 7
10) First Cow
Other Possibles: One Night in Miami, Midnight Sky, I'm Thinking of Ending Things
FILM EDITING
1) The Trial of the Chicago 7
2) Nomadland
3) Mank
4) News of the World
5) Tenet
6) The Father
7) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom
8) One Night in Miami
9) Da 5 Bloods
10) Judas and the Black Messiah
Other Possibles: Minari, Sound of Metal
NYFCC AND MORE
The New York Film Critics Circle awarded their superlatives for film in 2020 last night. The NYFCC announcement kicks off a week that will see a number of major film awards announcements including the American Film Institute, the National Board of Review and The Independent Spirit nominations among others.
From the NYFCC, TFF winners:
Best Picture: First Cow
Best Director: Chloe Zhao/Nomadland
KERSHAW TALKS TRUFFLES
The Truffle Hunters has come on like gangbusters as we have moved through the end of 2020 into the beginning of 2021 as a serious threat in the Oscar race for Best Documentary Feature. The TFF #47 selection from Sony Pictures Classics sits in my first pass at predicting the nominees for that category just outside the possible nominees at #8 (in an incredibly competitive category). Meanwhile Variety's Clayton Davis has the film at #3 and Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter has it at #5.
In light of all of that, Gold Derby featured an interview with co-director Gregory Kershaw this week.
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay updated since I last posted this category on Dec. 7th. A screenplay's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 films are indicated in Bold.
1) Nomadland (1)
2) The Father (3)
3) One Night in Miami (2)
4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (4)
5) News of the World (5)
6) First Cow (7)
7) I'm Thinking of Ending Things (6)
8) Borat: Subsequent Moviefilm (8)
9) The Mauritanian (-)
10) Pieces of a Woman (10)
Other Possibles: The United States vs. Billie Holiday, Midnight Sky, The White Tiger
Hot: The Mauritanian, First Cow
Not: Billie Holiday
I'll have a look at Original Screenplay on Monday.
INDIEWIRE LISTS: TOP 50 OF 2020
Indiewire posted its list of the best 50 films of 2020 according to the 200+ critics they surveyed. That story was posted on Jan. 5th. Among the 50 films were five films from either TFF #46 or the TFF #47 list of films that would have played the fest. Here's where those five films landed:
INDIEWIRE LISTS: CONTENDERS FOR BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Meanwhile, Indiewire's Anne Thompson published an updated selection of what she considers the frontrunners for the Best International Feature Oscar. Among her frontrunners are three films that would have been screening in Telluride last Labor Day had the fest occurred.
Thompson's list included:
Charlatan
Apples
Notturno.
The four other frontrunners she names include Another Round, I'm No Longer Here, Collective and My Little Sister.
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on Dec. 3rd. A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.
1) Sacha Baron Cohen/Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)
2) Leslie Odom Jr./One Night in Miami (1)
3) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (7)
4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (5)
5) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (3)
6) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (-)
7) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (8)
8) Mark Rylance/Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)
9) David Stratharin/Nomadland (6)
10) Charles Dance/Mank (-)
Other possibles: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Eddie Redmayne/Trial of the Chicago 7, Aldis Hodge/One Night in Miami, Frank Langella/Trial of the Chicago 7.
Hot: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah, Paul Raci/Sound of Metal, Charles Dance/Mank
Not: Bill Murray/On the Rocks, Mark Rylance/Trial of the Chicago 7, David Stratharin/Nomadland
On Thursday I'll update predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay.
VARIETY'S BIGGEST MOVIES
In a story entitled "The Most Anticipated Movies Coming in 2021, Variety chronologically names 33 films to their list. Of that 33, seven are films that I feel like could be TFF #48 films:
The French Dispatch (which Variety says is a "summer" release)
Dune (10/1)
The Last Duel (10/15)
Nightmare Alley (December)
And films for which a release date has yet to be announced:
The Tragedy of Macbeth
Soggy Bottom (or whatever Paul Thomas Anderson ultimately calls it)
DEADLINE'S MOST INFLUENTIAL FILMS OF THE 21ST CENTURY
Deadline staff folks have come up with a listing of what they say are the most influential films of the 21st century (so far). There are 21 films named. Of that 21 six where TFF films:
Parasite
Roma
The Shape of Water
Moonlight
Slumdog Millionaire
There Will Be Blood (which I always count as a TFF film due the screening of a chunk of the film as part of the 2007 tribute to Paul Thomas Anderson)
I can't really argue with the choices from TFF but a surprising omission, to me at least, is Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave.
NBP SAYS THESE ARE YOUR BEST BETS FOR INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Next Best Picture's Tom O'Brien writes in a piece dated Dec. 30, 2020 that there are 10 films out in front of the pack in the International Feature Oscar race. Of his list of 10, a couple would have played at a TFF #47: Charlatan (Czech Republic) and Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland).
I would toss in the notion that there are a couple of other TFF #47 choices that could also land in the convo: Apples (Greece) and Notturno (Italy).
Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on Nov. 5th. A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.
1) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (3)
2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (1)
3) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (4)
4) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (5)
5) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (2)
6) David Startharin/Nomadland (6)
7) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (8)
8) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (-)
9) Frank Langella/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (9)
10) Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (-)
Others: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Charles Dance/Mank, Arliss Howard/Mank, Thomas Pelphrey/Mank
Hot: Odom/One Night in Miami, Tucci/Supernova, Abdul-Mateen II/Trial of the Chicago 7
Not: Boseman/Da 5 Bloods
INDIEWIRE"S TOP 20 and TFF
Indiewire's Eric Kohn has posted his selection of the 20 best films for 2020 and the list contains films that played at TFF #46 as well as films that were on the TFF #47 announced list. TFF films that were on Kohn's list are:
SUBMISSIONS ARE IN FOR OSCAR'S INTERNATIONAL FILMS
The deadline has come and gone for submission for International Film Oscar submissions. As you might expect, some TFF #47 choices were submitted. Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist has handicapped the field and among the more likely players for an Oscar nomination in his assessment are these TFF #47 selections:
Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil took the top prize. the Golden Bear, from the just concluded Berlin International Films Festival. The award came from the Jury led this year by Jeremy Irons.
Rasoulof was a recipient of a tribute from the Telluride Film Festival in 2013 during TFF #40. That included a screening of Manuscripts Don't Burn. Rasoulof was back in Telluride in 2017 with A Man of Integrity.
Rasoulof was not allowed to attend the Berlin Fest by the Iranian government.
The Golden Bear win doesn't guarantee that There Is No Evil ends up at Telluride but it also likely doesn't harm its potential. The last Golden Bear winner to play TFF was Fire at Sea in 2016. Other recent Golden Bear winners that went on to play TFF include Asghar Farhadi's A Separation and Jafar Panahi's Taxi.
THE CRITICS BERLIN
Returning to the massive database of critical response to the films screened at Berlin that is compiled by Reini Urban; here is the final look at films that I have highlighted as possible considerations for TFF #47 (on a 10 point scale)
Pinocchio 7.39
The Woman Who Ran 7.17
Undine 6.89
There Is No Evil 6.76
Charlatan 6.20
The Salt of Tears 5.49
Irradiated 5.43
Siberia 4.95
Metacritic also had a critical compilation post over the weekend for Berlin films and among the films they mentioned from the above list were (on a 100 point scale):
There Is No Evil 79
The Woman Who Ran 81
Charlatan 65
Undine 69
The Salt of Tears 57
And finally, Indiewire's Eric Kohn and Anne Thompson talk about the Berlinale in this week's episode of their podcast Screen Talk. Both Pinocchio and Undine are specifically mentioned.
Thompson, Kohn and David Ehrlich collaborated to also publish an article detailing the films that they thought were the 10 best of Berlin. That list included: Charlatan, Last and First Men, Pinocchio, There Is No Evil and The Woman Who Ran.
Last word on Berlin, for now...look out for Johann Johannsson's Last and First Men. The late Icelandic composer's first attempt at directing a feature film. Johannsson was Oscar nominated for the scores for Sicario and The Theory of Everything. Just got a feeling.
MORE ADDITIONS TO TFF HISTORY
I added the 2011, 2012 and 2013 Telluride Film Festivals to the Extended Telluride History Part Two: 1996-Present page.
2011 notable films included: Albert Nobbs, The Artist, A Dangerous Method, Into the Abyss, A Separation, Shame and We Need to Talk About Kevin.
2012: Notable films included:The Act of Killing, Amour, Argo, The Central Park Five, Frances Ha, No, Rust and Bone and Stories We Tell.
2013 notable films included: 12 Years a Slave, All Is Lost, Blue Is the Warmest Color, Gloris. Gravity, Ida, Inside Llewyn Davis, Manuscripts Don't Burn, The Missing Picture, Nebraska, The Past, Prisoners and Under the Skin.
The Berlin International Film Festival continues apace toward its Sunday conclusion and the announcement of award winners in various categories including the announcement of this year's winner of the Golden Bear award to the Best Film in the competition section.
As BIFF has passed its half way point, here's a look at the critical consensus for some of the titles playing there that, at least initially, have some TFF #47 potential:
Matteo Garrone's Pinocchio 7.32 (on a 10 point scale)
Hong Sang-soo's The Woman Who Ran 7.24
Agnieszka Holland's Charlatan 7.00
Christian Petzold's Undine 6.79
Philippe Garrel's The Salt of Tears 5.45
Abel Ferrara's Siberia 5.09
Still not charting with Reni Urban's critics collective:
Rithy Panh's Irradiated
Mohammad Rasoulof's There Is No Evil