Monday, January 4, 2021

Oscar Update: Best Supporting Actor / Variety's Biggest Movies / Deadline's Most Influential Films of the 21st Century / NBP's Best Bets for International Feature

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR



Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Dec. 3rd.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.


1) Sacha Baron Cohen/Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)
2) Leslie Odom Jr./One Night in Miami (1)
3) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (7)
4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (5)
5) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (3)
6) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (-)
7) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (8)
8) Mark Rylance/Trial of the Chicago 7 (4)
9) David Stratharin/Nomadland (6)
10) Charles Dance/Mank (-)

Other possibles: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, Eddie Redmayne/Trial of the Chicago 7, Aldis Hodge/One Night in Miami, Frank Langella/Trial of the Chicago 7.
Hot: Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah, Paul Raci/Sound of Metal, Charles Dance/Mank
Not: Bill Murray/On the Rocks, Mark Rylance/Trial of the Chicago 7, David Stratharin/Nomadland


On Thursday I'll update predictions for Best Adapted Screenplay.


VARIETY'S BIGGEST MOVIES




In a story entitled "The Most Anticipated Movies Coming in 2021, Variety chronologically names 33 films to their list.  Of that 33, seven are films that I feel like could be TFF #48 films:

The French Dispatch (which Variety says is a "summer" release)
Dune (10/1)
The Last Duel (10/15)
Nightmare Alley (December)

And films for which a release date has yet to be announced:

The Tragedy of Macbeth
Soggy Bottom (or whatever Paul Thomas Anderson ultimately calls it)
Annette




DEADLINE'S MOST INFLUENTIAL FILMS OF THE 21ST CENTURY




Deadline staff folks have come up with a listing of what they say are the most influential films of the 21st century (so far).  There are 21 films named.  Of that 21 six where TFF films:

Parasite
Roma
The Shape of Water
Moonlight
Slumdog Millionaire
There Will Be Blood (which I always count as a TFF film due the screening of a chunk of the film as part of the 2007 tribute to Paul Thomas Anderson)

I can't really argue with the choices from TFF but a surprising omission, to me at least, is Steve McQueen's 12 Years a Slave.




NBP SAYS THESE ARE YOUR BEST BETS FOR INTERNATIONAL FEATURE




Next Best Picture's Tom O'Brien writes in a piece dated  Dec. 30, 2020 that there are 10 films out in front of the pack in the International Feature Oscar race.  Of his list of 10, a couple would have played at a TFF #47: Charlatan (Czech Republic) and Never Gonna Snow Again (Poland).

I would toss in the notion that there are a couple of other TFF #47 choices that could also land in the convo:  Apples (Greece) and Notturno (Italy).







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