Turning the Page / Oscar Experts Early Picks: Variety / New Teaser for The Only Living Pickpocket in New York / New Poster for A Long Winter / Visitations: Oppenheim on You Can See Everything

TURNING THE PAGE

We've made the run of post-festival ratings with the reportage of results from my annual poll of the People, the Professionals and then the Composite of both together.  It looks like several films that screened at TFF #53 have the potential for Oscar success.  So, as has become the custom here at MTFB, we turn the page to what happens now in awards season to the films that made up the TFF #53 lineup.

GOLD DERBY'S EARLY LINE

Here's where Gold Derby experts have the Best Picture are at as an opening salvo on Oscar Season.

For quick reference here the ten movies that GD experts place as getting a Best Picture nomination (TFF #53 films are in Bold):

1) The Odyssey

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) Project Hail Mary

4) La Bola Negra

5) The Debut

6) The Invite

7) Dune: Part Three

8) Fjord

9) Digger

10) I Play Rocky

Three other TFF #53 films are in the Gold Derby Top 20 for Best Picture:

12) Elsinore

15) Club Kid

19)  Fatherland

OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PICKS: VARIETY

I'm going to run through about half-a-dozen or so Oscar experts and their early predictions focusing on what they're saying vis-a-vis TFF #53 films.  We start with Clayton Davis of Variety.  Here's every TFF #53 film he predicts as nominees for the 21 feature categories:

Leading the way from the Davis predictions is La Bola Negra with 11 predicted nominations:

La Bola Negra (11): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Production Design. Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound, Score.

Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Editing.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Tender Loving Care (3): Best Actress (Bailey), Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Actor (Scott), Casting

You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.

The Only Living Pickpocker in New York (1): Best Actor (Tutturro).

Fatherland (1): Best Actress (Huller),

Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Everest: The Other Side (1): Best Documentary.

Fjord (1): Best International Feature.

Minotaur (1) Best International Feature.

A total of 12 TFF #53 films would earn 34 Oscar nominations per the predictions from Davis.

You'll find all of Clayton's early predix here.

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/best-picture-11/

NEW TEASER FOR THE ONLY LIVING PICKPOCKET IN NEW YORK

From YouTube:

NEW POSTER FOR A LONG WINTER

VISITATIONS

Lance Oppenheim on You Can See Everything...and Other Projects.

https://theplaylist.net/lance-oppenheim-primetime-robert-pattinson-you-can-see-everything-nathan-fielder-interview-20260925/?

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The Composite Telluride for 2026 / Trailers for Wild Horse Nine and You Can See Everything

THE COMPOSITE TELLURIDE FOR 2026 

We cap off the run of posts that highlight the way people rated the films at Telluride today with what I call The Composite Telluride in which I add up a film's ratings from both The People and the Pros.  

This year nine films had enough responses from both groups to make this list.  There are seven films that made one list but didn't make The Composite because they failed to get enough people to see them from one group or the other.  Those were You Can See Everything which didn't make the People's list and Rose, Tenzing, Liberation, The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Fatherland and Alpha Gang which weren't seen by enough Pros.

So, here's the Composite.  Each title is listed with it's composite rating (on a scale of 10) and its positions on the Pro list then the Peoples list.

1) Wild Horse Nine 9.05 [2-2]

2) La Bola Negra 8.64 [6-1]

3) Club Kid 8.57 [4-4]

4) The Debut 8.29 [5-6]

5) Fjord 8.23 [3-8]

6) Elsinore 8.16 [8-3]

7) Tender Loving Care 7.22 [7-12]

8) Ink 7.16 [9-11]

9) A Long Winter 5.99 [10-14]

Another note to pass along are the films that were seen most frequently...indicating the initial interest, or lack thereof, for a particular film.

These were the hottest films using that metric (according to the People's Poll):

1) The Debut with 83.7% of respondents having seen it.

2) Wild Horse Nine 84.1%

3) Elsinore 81.0%

4) Ink 77.8%

5) La Bola Negra (Tie) 61.9%

5) Club Kid (Tie) 61.9%

And for some historical perspective:

You Can See Everything will move to the top of the list for ratings by The Professionals.  Its 4.83 rating average will top Moonlight by .01 of a point.  Moonlight had a 4.82.

Wild Horse Nine will become the #10 all-time rated by the Professionals with its 4.62 jumping ahead of La La Land.

La Bola Negra becomes the #8 all time highest rated film for The People's Poll with its 4.56.

Wild Horse Nine also becomes the #9 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 9.05.

La Bola Negra becomes the #25 rated film on the all time Composite list with its 8.64.

TRAILERS FOR WILD HORSE NINE AND YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHNG

WILD HORSE NINE from YouTube:

And a new poster as well:

 

YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING from You Tube:

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The People's Telluride-2026 / La Bola Negra Captures Toronto's People's Choice Award / Once Upon a Time in Harlem Honored

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-2026

Here's my compilation of film ratings from TFF attendees for TFF #53.  Respondents were asked to rate each film they saw on a 1-5 scale with 1 being not-so-good and 5 being "way good".  Over 60 attendees responded to the poll.  The traditional requirement for inclusion is that a film had to have been seen by a third of the respondents.  15 films met that criteria.  Here they are in order of their average rating:

1) La Bola Negra 4.56

2) Wild Horse Nine 4.43

3) Elsinore 4.42

4) Rose 4.39

5) Club Kid 4.34

6) The Debut 4.17

7) Tenzing 3.98

8) Fjord 3.93

9) Liberation 3.65

10) The Only Living Pickpocket in New York 3.54

11) Ink 3.49

12) Tender Loving Care 3.40

13) Fatherland 3.28

14) A Long Winter 2.99

15) Alpha Gang 2.72

A point for consideration.  Despite the overwhelming critical reception from the Professionals, the "super-secret" TBA of You Can See Everything didn't have enough reported ratings from the People to qualify for inclusion here.  There were a mere 10 respondents that included the film.  It is, however, worth mentioning that all 10 ratings were a 5.  

Altogether, in the 14 years I have been polling at Telluride, I've not seen the kind of overwhelmingly positive reception for a film as what occurred here.

Coming on Thursday...The Composite Telluride.

YOU CAN SEE EVERYTHING TRAILER

You Can See Everything is set to be released, according to distributor A24, sometime on October 16th.,

Here is a teaser for the film from YouTube:

LA BOLA NEGRA CAPTURES TORONTO'S PEOPLE'S CHOICE AWARD

Telluride films do pretty, pretty good in Toronto as La Bola Negra wins The People's Choice Award and Elsinore wins TIFF's Best International Film People's Choice. 

I Play Rocky was the First Runner-Up for the People's Choice Feature award and Being Heumann was Second Runner-up.

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HARLEM HONORED 

The documentary Once Upon a Time in Harlem was named as this year's winner of the Lavine-Burns  Prize for Film from the Library of Congress.  Here's the poster:

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The Professional's Telluride / Minotaur Trailer / Rehearsals for a Revolution Trailer

 THE PROFESSIONALS TELLURIDE

They're back.  It's time to reveal the results of MTFB's annual poll of film industry professionals who agreed to rate the films on a 1-5 scale and allow me then to collate and average those scores.  The Pros are a mix of critics, awards experts and other industry insiders.  To make the list this year a film had to be rated by at least half of the Pros.  That threshold allowed ten films to make the list.

The Pros:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch

Josh Bis/Seattle Film Critics Society and TheSunBreak.com

Christina Jeurling Birro/Pop Culture Confidential

Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter

Mark Johnson/The Awards Alchemist

Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies

Scott Kernan/Awards Daily

Joey Magidson/Awards Radar

Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch

Will Mavity/Next Best Picture

Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture

Christopher Schiller/Freelance, former columnist ScriptMag.com

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Chris Willman/Variety

Anonymous

And the results are:

1) You Can See Everything 4.83

2) Wild Horse 9 4.62

3) Fjord 4.30

4) Club Kid 4.23

5) The Debut 4.12

6) La Bola Negra 4.08

7) Tender Loving Care 3.82

8) Elsinore 3.74

9) Ink 3.67

10) A Long Winter 3.00

I had intuitively thought that 2026 might be a banner year for the number of films with an average rating of 4.0 or above.  2026 had six of them as you can see above, but as  I looked back to all of the polls since I started doing them in 2012, I discovered that five TFFs had produced more: 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2019 with 2013 and 2015 being the top years each having eight films that reached the 4.0+ threshold.

Another note, You Can See Everything-the "super-secret" screening-was a huge hit with the professionals.  The 4.83 rating is going to put it in the Top Ten All Time Pro's Ratings.  The Huntsinger gambit here was a tremendous success.

Now, for The People's Telluride...on Monday!

MINOTAUR TRAILER

From YouTube:

REHEARSALS FOR A REVOLUTION TRAILER

From YouTube:

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Deadline for Rating Films / Trailers and Teasers: Ink, Fatherland and Tenzing / Visitations: Huntsinger and Boyle

DEADLINE FOR RATING FILMS

We're down to it.  The final deadline to rate the films you saw at the 53rd Telluride Film Festival is tomorrow at 5:00pm PDT. 

As a reminder:  Report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

TRAILERS AND TEASERS

Via YouTube:

INK

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eokBqEFiVHs

FATHERLAND

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=52zHLYf25M0

TENZING

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nNjFIz5qlUM

VISITATIONS

Gold Derby with Julie Huntisinger on the Super Secret TBA

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/telluride-film-festival-julie-huntsinger-post-mortem-interview/

Indiewire with Danny Boyle on Ink

https://www.indiewire.com/features/interviews/danny-boyle-interview-ink-1235215117/

More on Thursday...including the results of The Professionals Telluride Film Poll for TFF #53.

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TFF #53 In the Books / Rate Those Films!

TFF #53 IN THE BOOKS

Here's your regularly scheduled post for a Thursday from MTFB with TFF #53 still pretty close in the rear view mirror.

***Overall thanks go to Larry and Mitzi Mallard who jumped in and upgraded our accommodations for the fest.  When in Telluride...stay at The River Club.

***Thanks to all you readers of MTFB.  There were a bunch of you and you were all so kind and particularly welcoming to my grandson who was making his first trip to TFF,    You're the reason...

***It seemed like the general conclusion was that TFF #53 was a very strong fest.  I suspect that The People's Poll and The MTFB Pro Poll will likely bare that out.  We'll see over the next ten days or so.

***How'd I do?  MTFB went 25 for 25 on the Final Bets with an additional three films making the lineup that I had listed as "possibilities".  Not bad for a rube from Oklahoma.

***I got really Shakespearian with my two favorite films being Elsinore and Into the Breach.  If Andrew Scott doesn't win the Best Actor Oscar this year, I will have words with someone.  Harsh, scathing words.

***I was shut out for a film at Telluride for the first time ever this year.  It felt like the "shut out discourse' was louder than ever this year, but that could have been that, having experienced it, I was more sensitive to it.

RATE THOSE FILMS!

I reminded folks while standing in lines this past weekend to rate the films for the MTFB People's Poll.  A reminder for how that works:

Report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

I'll have more in Monday's regular post...but for now...still exhausted!

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TFF #53...Comes to a Close...So Rate Those Films

TFF #53...COMES TO A CLOSE...SO RATE THOSE FILMS

The 53rd edition of the Telluride Film Festival is in the midst of its last round of films for the weekend unspooling right now.

Was really a better than average festival for the Pattersons despite being shut out of a film for the first time ever. 

Big thanks to The River Club who became our last minute home for the fest.  It was lovely and the staff was terrific.

Thanks to all of you readers who said such kind words to me this weekend.  It brings an honest smile to my face that so many of you find this space interesting.  Now...RATE THOSE FILMS!

DIRECTIONS:

For the 14th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

TBAs and More for Monday, Sept. 7th 2026

 Monday TBAs 9/7

Werner Herzog Theater

4:15pm: CLUB KID (122m)

7:00pm: INK (116m)

Sheridan Opera House

5:30pm: BURGUNDY (88m)

7:15pm: THE LIBERATION (124m)

The Marvin

1:30pm: ROSE (94m)

3:45pm: THE ROW (89m)

6:30pm: AVEDON (104m)

Masons Cinema Hall:

3:00pm: ONCE UPON A TIME IN HARLEM (100m)

5:15pm: THE MAN I LOVE (97m)

7:15pm: THE DISCIPLE (105m)

Le Pierre:

3:45pm: PETE TOWNSHEND: BEHIND BLUE EYES (102m)

6:00pm: THE UNKNOWN (141m)

Backlot: (All films free)

1:15pm: MAVERICK (120m)

3:30pm: HOUSE OF CRITICISM (83m)

5:15pm: NATURAL STATE (87m)

_____

Noon Seminar Town Park

Moderated by Annette Insdorf

Sponsored by Apple Original Films

Where Have All the Heroes Gone: Is traditional heroism absent from new independent films? 

Guy Nattiv (THE LIBERATION), Cristian Mungiu (FJORD), Jennifer Peedom (TENZING)

Posted on September 07, 2026

TBAs Tomorrow at The Herzog

TBA'S TOMORROW AT THE HERZOG

6:15  Mystery TBA revealed at Showtime,  174 min.

10:15 Wild Horse Nine

TBA tomorrow is The Only Living Pickpocket in New York.

TBA tomorrow is The Only Living Pickpocket in New York. 

TFF #53 LINEUP DROPS

 Per Variety, the TFF #53 lineup:

Tributes

• Andrew Haigh (writer, director)
• Sandra Hüller (actress)
• John Malkovich (actor)

Main Program (The Show)

• “Act 3” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Christine Molloy & Joe Lawlor
• “Alpha Gang” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. David Zellner & Nathan Zellner — World Premiere
• “Avedon” (Netflix) — dir. Ron Howard — World Premiere
• “Beau Geste” (Rialto Pictures, 1926 restoration) — dir. Herbert Brenon
• “Begotten” (World Artists Home Video) — dir. E. Elias Merhige
• “Bucking Fastard” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Werner Herzog
• “The Buffalo Miracle” and “Witt v. Air Force” — dir. Ben Proudfoot
• “Burgundy” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Michael Dweck & Gregory Kershaw
• “Carl Sagan: We Are Made of Star Stuff” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Nanette Burstein
• “Club Kid” (A24) — dir. Jordan Firstman
• “The Debut” (A24) — dir. Jesse Eisenberg — World Premiere
• “The Disciple” (Netflix) — dir. Joanna Natasegar — World Premiere
• “Elsinore” (Focus Features) — dir. Simon Stone — World Premiere
• “Everest: The Other Side” (National Geographic Films) — dir. Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi & Jimmy Chin
• “Fatherland” (Mubi) — dir. Paweł Pawlikowski
• “Fjord” (Neon) — dir. Cristian Mungiu
• “Gentle Monster” (Netflix) — dir. Marie Kreutzer
• “The Idiot(s)” (The Match Factory) — dir. Małgorzata Szumowska & Michał Englert — World Premiere
• “In Love Rendered” — dir. Liz Garbus
• “Ink” (Netflix) — dir. Danny Boyle
• “La Bola Negra” (Netflix) — dir. Javier Calvo & Javier Ambrossi
• “The Liberation” (Bleecker Street) — dir. Guy Nattiv — World Premiere
• “A Long Winter” (Mubi) — dir. Andrew Haigh — World Premiere
• “Making Marie Antoinette” (Mubi) — dir. Eleanor Coppola
• “The Man I Love” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Ira Sachs
• “Minotaur” (Mubi) — dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev
• “My Undesirable Friends: Part II — Exile” (Mubi) — dir. Julia Loktev — World Premiere
• “Once Upon a Time in Harlem” (Neon) — dir. William Greaves & David Greaves
• “The Only Living Pickpocket in New York” (Sony Pictures Classics) — dir. Noah Segan
• “Pete Townshend: Behind Blue Eyes” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Frank Marshall, Nigel Sinclair & Cassidy Hartmann
• “Rehearsals for a Revolution” (Mongrel Media) — dir. Pegah Ahangarani
• “The Revolution Against Death” — dir. Joshua Oppenheimer
• “Roger Corman at 100” (U.S. distribution TBA)
• “Rose” (Mubi) — dir. Markus Schleinzer
• “The Row” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Bryan Fogel
• “A Song for the Snow Lion” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Pawo Choyning Dorji
• “Stories of Resilience” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Sarah Gavron, Wafa Mustafa & Waad Al-Kateab, Bill Morrison
• “The Story of Documentary Film” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Mark Cousins
• “Sumo: Spirit Weighs Nothing” (ESPN Films) — dir. Erik Shirai
• “Tender Loving Care” (Bleecker Street) — dir. Mike Leigh — World Premiere
• “Tenzing” (Apple Original Films) — dir. Jennifer Peedom — World Premiere
• “The Unknown” (U.S. distribution TBA) — dir. Arthur Harari
• “Wild Horse Nine” (Searchlight Pictures) — dir. Martin McDonagh

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Final Bets for TFF #53 / The People's Telluride

Well, here we are on the cusp of another Telluride Film Festival and as promised hare is a look at my final "bets" to play TFF #53.  As a reminder of where we've been here:

The original Ten Bets from back in June (with what I think is playing designated with***):

***The Black Ball

***Bucking Fastard

Coward-NOPE

***The Debut

***Fatherland

***A Long Winter

***Minotaur

Paper Tiger-NOPE

The Story of Documentary Film-MAYBE

Yellow Letters-MAYBE

AND HERE'S THE FINAL PREDICITION

1) Elsinore

2) The Debut

3) Ink

4) Club Kid

5) Bucking Fastard

6) Wild Horse Nine

7) Fatherland

8) La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

9) A Long Winter

10) Everest: The Other Side

11) Minotaur

12) Fjord

13) Tender Loving Care

14) Gentle Monster

15) Rose

16) The Man I Love

17)The Alpha Gang

18) My Undesirable Friends Part II

19) Rehearsal for a Revolution

20) The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

21) Tenzing

22) The Idiots

23) The Liberation

24) Making Marie Antoinette

25) One More Time

Other possibilities: 

 

Ancient History

The Basics of Philosophy

Burgundy

Diamond

Primetime

Sense and Sensibility

The Story of Documentary Film

The Unknown

Yellow Letters

I'll post the announced schedule tomorrow morning when it's released.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE-14TH EDITION

For the 14th year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com 

The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.

Time to Rock 'n Roll...see you in The Ride!

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