MTFB's Initial Oscar Nomination Predictions: Lead Acting / TFF #53 Dominates Awards at Middleburg Fest

 MTFB'S INITIAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICITIONS: LEAD ACTING

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Actress and Actor. TFF #53 artists are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Julianne Moore/The Debut

2) Sandra Huller/Rose

3) Inde Naverrette/Obsession

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Renee Reinsve/Fjord

Others: Virginia Efira/All of a Sudden, Carrie Coon/The Liberation, Marion Bailey/Tender Loving Care.

BEST ACTOR

1) Andrew Scott/Elsinore

2) John Malkovich/Wild Horse Nine

3) Matt Damon/The Odyssey

4) John Turturro/The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

5) Ryan Gosling/Project Hail MarBest y

Others:Tom Cruise/Digger, Pedro Pascal/Behemoth!, Anthony Ippolito/I Play Rocky.

TFF #53 DOMINATES AWARDS AT MIDDLEBURG FEST

The Middleburg Film Fest ran Oct. 15-18th.  at its comclusion the fest announced winners of its annual Audience Awards.  

For Best Narrative, TFF #53 films took the top three spots;  

2nd Runnerup: Wild Horse Nine

1st Runnerup: Elsinore

Winner: The Debut

Best International Film; La Bola Negra

Best Documentary: 14th

The awards were reported by The Contending's Joey Moser and and his entire article can be found here.

https://thecontending.com/middleburg-awards/

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MTFB First Oscar Nomination Predictions: Picture and Direction / TFF #53 and the Mill Valley Fest Awards / Critics Choice Documentary Nominees / Trailer for A Long Winter

MTFB FIRST OSCAR PREDICTIONS: PICTURE AND DIRECTION

MTFB starts out its Oscar nomnation predicitions for the 2027 awards with our initial predix for Best Picture and Best Direction.  

BEST PICTURE

1) The Odyessy

2) Wild Horse Nine

3) La Bola Negra

4) Project Hail Mary

5) The Invite

6) Dune: Part Three

7) The Debut

8) Fjord

9) I Play Rocky

10) You Can See Everything

Others: Club Kid, All of a Sudden, Elsinore.

DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/The Odyessy

2) Martin McDonagh/Wild Horse Nine

3) Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo/La Bola Negra

4) Olivia Wilde/The Invite

5) Denis Villemeuve/Dune: Part Three

Others: Phil Lord, Christopher Miller/Project Hail Mary, Ryusuke Hamaguchi/All of a Sudden, Christian Mungiu/Fjord.

I'll have the first MTFB predictions for Lead Acting up for Thursday's post.

TFF #53 FILMS AND THE MILL VALLEY FEST AWARDS

TFF #53 films were wellrepresented at the end of the Mill Valley Film Festival with Tenzing and Elsinore taking top honors among awards voted on by MVFF audiences.  Here's the rundown:

Overall Audience Award: Tenzing

Audience Award: Narrative Feature: Elsinore

Acting Awards went to Andrew Scott for Elsinore and Lea Seydoux for Gentle Monster.

Mind the Gap Award for Direction: Marie Kreutzer/Gentle Monster.

You can see the entire list of MVFF winners via Awards Watch linked here.

https://awardswatch.com/tenzing-elsinore-win-49th-mill-valley-film-festival-audience-awards/

CRITICS CHOICE DOCUMENTARY AWARDS NOMINEES INCLUDE LOTS OF TFF #53 FILMS

The Critics Chioce Awards announced nominees for the best of 2026.  Several TFF #53 made the cut as well as three docs from TFF #52.  Here are the Telluride docs earning nominations:

You Can See Everything (5): Best Documentary Feature, Direction, Cinematography, Editing and Score.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (5): Best Documentary Feature, Best Forst Documentary Feature, Best Historical Doc, Best Archival Doc.

Everest: The Other Side (4): Best Documentary Feature, Best Sports Doc, Cinematography and Editing.

Rehearsals for a Revolution (3): Best Documentary Feature,  Best Archival Doc, Best Narration.

Making Marie Antoinette (1): Best Archival Doc.

Avedon (1): best Bioraphical Doc.

And fro TFF #52:

Man on the Run (2): Best Music Doc, Best Archival Doc.

Everywhere Man (1): Best Music Doc.

Ask E, Jean (1) Best Political Doc.

Ava Dubernay's 14th, which did not play at Telluride, led all nominees with six.

The complete list of nominees is here from The Critics Choice Association

https://www.criticschoice.com/nominations-unveiled-for-the-11th-annual-critics-choice-documentary-awards/

TRAILER FOR ANDREW HAIGH'S A LONG WINTER

From YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MpIwPydkWac&t=6s

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The Digging Process / Oscar Experts with Early Predictions-Mark Johnson-The Contending / TFF #53 Films Honored at Hampton Fest

 THE DIGGING PROCESS

Nope...this isn't a segment musing about Inarritu's Digger.

Periodically I sit down and go through my "Future Telluride" folder.  Yes, it's true.  I see something that looks interesting regarding Telluride, I stuff it in there for future reference.  Is it valuable?  I think so.  As an example...here are some of the films that I had tucked away a year to two years befor they bowed at Teluride:

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York

Ink

A Long Winter

Fatherland

Bucking Fastard

The Debut

Mastermind

Jay Kelly

Hamnet

As a tease, I have nearly two dozen titles sitting in the folder that feel like they could be TFF #64 or #55 choices...but I'm keeping those quiet...for now.

OSCAR EXPERTS WITH EARLY PREDICTIONS-MARK JOHNSON-THE CONTENDING

Not quite as comprehensive as some of the "experts" I have already shared.  All the folks, including Mark, the play the Oscar prediciton game have choices up for the "above-the-line" categories.

So, among those cateories, this is what mark is currently prediciting from films that played TFF #53:

Wild Horse Nine (6): Best Picture, Dircetion, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.

La Bola Negra (5): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Adapted Screenplay, Casting.

The Debut (4): Best Picrure, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).

Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).

Club Kid (1): Original Screenplay.

Tender Loving Care (1): Original Screenplay.

Among these nine categories seven TFF #53 films are predicyed to pick 20 nominations.

Mark's complete set of predicitons is linked here.

https://thecontending.com/oscar-predictions/mark-johnson/

TFF #53 FILMS HONORED AT HAMPTON FEST

TFF #53 films were well rewarded by the just concluded Hampton International Film festival.

La Bola Negra was named Best Narrative feature this week,  Elsinore was named Best narrative Feature Audience Award winner.  Bugundy was named the audience winner for Best Documentary.

Here's a link to the awards winners from Gold Derby.

https://www.goldderby.com/film/2026/hamptons-international-film-festival-2026-winners/

The fest ran from Oct. 2-12.

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Early Predictions from Oscar Experts-Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter / New U.K. Trailer for Elsinore / Vsitations: Gentle Monster and Making Marie Antoinette

EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-SCOTT FEINBERG OF THE HOLLYWOOD REPORTER

MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation.  I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences.  Today we look at the predicitions from Scott Feinberg from The Hollywood Reporter. Here are the TFF #53 films Feinberg is predicited for nominations:

La Bola Negra (14): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Song, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.

Wild Horse Nine (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Supporting Actress (di Giorlamo), Original Screenplay, Score, Casting, Cinematography, Edting.

The Debut (3): Best Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Song.

Club Kid (3): Best Picture, Original Screenplay, Casting.

Fjord (3): Best Picture, International Feature, Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (2): Best Picture, Actor (Scott).

Rose (2): Best  Inetrnational feature, Actress (Huller).

Fatherland (2): Best Cinematography, Production Design.

Tender Loving Care (2): Best Original Screenplay, Casting.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Picture.

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).

The Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

Ink (1): Best Adapted Screenplay.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

My Undesireable Friends-Part Two (1): Best Documentary.

Feinberg has 16 TFF #53 films earning 48 nominations.

The complete list of Feinberg's predictions is linked here.

https://www.hollywoodreporter.com/lists/feinberg-forecast-post-venice-telluride-tiff-starts/best-documentary-feature-126/

NEW U.K.TRAILER FOR ELSINORE

via YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Lea Seydoux and Marie Kreutzer for Gentle Monster from Awards Watch.

https://awardswatch.com/interview-marie-kreutzer-and-lea-seydoux-on-navigating-the-complex-story-of-gentle-monster/

The Playlist looks at the Making of Marie Antoinette.

https://theplaylist.net/making-marie-antoinette-trailer-sofia-coppola-eleanor-coppola-20261008/

 

Early Predicitons from Oscar Experts-Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture / Fatherland Trailer

EARLY PREDICTIONS FROM OSCAR EXPERTS-MATT NEGLIA OF NEXT BEST PICTURE

MTFB continues the transition of this spece fromTelluride lineup specualtion to Oscar speculation.  I've been culling Oscar picks from a variety of sources to give readers a taste of where the opening weeks of Oscar season commences.  Today we look at the latest predicitions from Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture.  Here are the TFF #53 films Neglia is predicited for nominations:

La Bola Negra (12): Best Picture, Internationl Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Production Design, Score, Song and Sound.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giaigatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Wild Horse Nine (5): Best Picture, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actoe (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting.

Fjord (2): Best International Feature, Original Screenplay.

Rose (2): Best Actress (Huller), Maekeup and Hair.

Tender Loving Care (1): Oeirinal Screeplay.

Neglia has 12 TFF #53 nominated with a combined total of 33 nominations.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Documentary.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Rearsal for a Revolution (1): Best Documentary.

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

Fatherland (1): Cinematography.

Neglia's complete predictions are linked here.

https://predictions.nextbestpicture.com/oscars?nu=655756da85df4c0efaa10bd2

FATHERLAND TRAILER

From YouTube:

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Oscar Experts Early Predictions: Awards Watch

 OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PREDICITONS: AWARDS WATCH

MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists.  Today's look is from Erik Anderson's Awards Watch.  Here's what he has to say about TFF #53 films and Oscar nominations:

La Bola Negra (15): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Supporting Actor (Guitarricadelafuente), Supporting Actress (Cruz), Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Cinematography, Costumes, Production Design, Score, Song (x2) and Sound.

Wild Horse Nine (8): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Editing, Score.

Fjord (7): Best Picture, Direction, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve), Original Screenplay, Casing.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Elsinore (4): Best Picture, Actor (Scott), Supporting Actress (Colman), Editing.

Fatherland (2): Best International Feature, Cinematography.

Rose (1): Best Actress (Huller).

Club Kid (1): Best Original Screenplay.

Tender Loving Care (1): Best Original Screenplay.

You Can See Everything (1): Best Editing.

Once Upon a Time in Harlem (1): Best Documentary.

Rehearsals for a Revolution (1): Best Documentary.

Minotaur (1): Best International Feature.

That's 13 TFF #53 films with a predicted total of 48 nominations.

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Oscar Experts Early Predictions: Awards Radar / Elsinore Trailer / Rose Trailer

OSCAR EXPERTS EARLY PREDICTIONS: AWARDS RADAR

MTFB continues to look at the opening set of Oscar predictions from various Oscarologists.  Today's look is from Joey Magidson's Awards Radar.

La Bola Negra (10): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Sound and Song. 

Wild Horse Nine (9): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Malkovich), Supporting Actor (Rockwell), Original Screenplay, Casting, Cinematography, Editing, Score.

The Debut (5): Best Picture, Actress (Moore), Supporting Actor (Giamatti), Original Screenplay, Song.

Fjord (4): Best Picture, International Feature, Actor (Stan), Actress (Reinsve).

Club Kid (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

Rose (2): Best International Feature, Actress (Huller).

You Can See Everything (2): Best Picture, Best Documentary.

Tender Loving Care (2): Best Supporting Actress (O'Flynn), Original Screenplay.

Elsinore (1): Best Actor (Scott).

The Only Living Pickpocket in New York (1): Best Actor (Turturro).

Liberation (1): Best Actress (Coon).

Fatherland (1): Best International Feature.

Awards Radar has 12 TFF #53 films earning a total of 39 nominations.

ELSINORE TRAILER

Released on Sept. 9th from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SzopCeFAWF0&t=2s

ROSE TRAILER

Also released on Sept. 29th from YouTube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KrmkNoxS6t4

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