Wednesday, January 20, 2010

TFF # 36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #8

The Golden Globes are done, the Writer's Guild nominations are in (with some weirdness)...and we're less than two weeks away from nominations being's The Clearinghouse (using data from: In Contention, And the Winner Is, Gurus of Gold, The Envelope, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Rope of Silicon, and Film Misery). As always TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) UP IN THE AIR, 4) Inglorious Basterds, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Invictus, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) District 9, 11) Nine, 12) The Messenger, 13) A Single Man, 14) Star Trek, 15) The Hangover

Hot: District 9, Star Trek, The Hangover

Not: Up in the Air

Gone: The Last Station, Crazy Heart

Comment: The top 10 are pretty solid this week. I am surprised Nine still has any wind in its sails...UITA suffers its first real drop in popularity this week...but I still think it will win Best Picture. And The Hangover gets a boost from its Golden Globe win as Best Comedy/Musical.

I also still think The Messenger and The Last Station could sneak in here...and I'm also still beating the drum for The Road.

Best Director: 1) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) James Cameron/Avatar, 3) JASON REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, 5) Lee Daniels/Precious, 6) Clint Eastwood/Invictus, 7) LONE SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, 8) The Coen Brothers/A Serious Man, 9) Neil Blomkamp/District 9, 10 ) Rob Marshall/Nine.

Hot: Blomkamp and Marshall

Gone: Michael Haneke

Comment: The battle for the last spot is still between Daniels and Eastwood and Daniels now seems to have the inside track. The top 4 spots are solid. Neil Blomkamp benefits from the Dist. 9 surge and Marshall from the multiple Golden Globe noms for Nine.

Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 6) VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, 7) Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, 8) Michael Stuhlbarg/A Serious Man, 9) Tobey Maguire/Brothers, 10) Matt Damon/The Informant

Hot: Damon

Gone: Ben Foster/The Messenger

Comment: Renner seems to have solidified his place as a nominee. Moretensen is the spoiler.

Best Actress: 1) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 2) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Sandra Bullock/Blind Side, 4) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION, 6) Marion Cotillard/Nine, 7) ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, 8) Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, 9) Saroise Ronan/The Lovely Bones, 10) (tie) Melanie Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces.

Hot: Laurent

Comment: Anybody but the top 5 getting a nomination would be a stunner.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 4) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus, 6) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 7) Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me, 8) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, 9) Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, 10) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.

Comment: Waltz continues to have a perfect score. Tucci is still not suffering from the collapse of The Lovely Bones. I think Damon, Molina and McKay are duking it out for the last spot.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) ANNA KEDNDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 6) Samantha Morton/The Messenger, 7) Judi Dench/Nine, 8) (tie) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies, Diane Kruger/Ingloroius Basterds, 10) Melanie Laurent/Ingloroius Basterds

Comment: Mo'Nique maintains her perfect score. The battle is between Cruz and Morton for the fifth nom. The top four are solid. Kendrick is the only one with a wisp of a chance to unseat Mo'Nique.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 6) District 9, 7) Julie & Julia, 8) THE LAST STATION, 9) (tie) A Single Man and Where the Wild Things Are.

Hot: A Single Man

Gone: Into the Loop


Best Original Screenplay: 1) (tie) The Hurt Locker and Ingloroius Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) (500) Days of Summer, 5) Up, 6) Avatar, 7) It's Complicated, 8) The Hangover, 9) The White ribbon, 10) The Messenger


Comment: The top 3 spots are secure...after that..any one's guess about the last 2 spots. If I were betting right now I'd go with District 9 and Julie and Julia displacing Invictus and Mr. Fox...although I'd love to see The Last Station sneak in.


Documentary: 1) (tie) The Cove and Food Inc., 3) Burma VJ, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) The Beaches of Agnes, 6) Every Little Step, 7) Under Our Skin, 8) (tie) Soundtrack of a Revolution and Facing Ali, 10) Garbage Dreams

Hot: Garbage Dreams

Not: Every Little Step

Gone: Valentino: The Emperor

Comment: Horse race at the top between The Cove and Food Inc. Everything else is just playing to get a nomination.

Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 3) Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, 6) Ponyo, 7) A Christmas Carol, 8) Monsters and Aliens, 9) 9 10) Ice Age 3

Comment: Up..nuff said

Foreign Film: 1) A PROPHET, 2) THE WHITE RIBBON, 3) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 4) (tie) Broken Promises, Mother, Baaria, 7) Forever Enthralled

Comment: Also look for THE LAST TRUCK in short documentary. Ribbon and Prophet battle for the other film is probably going to challenge to actually win the Oscar.

Bottom Lines: Big 8 Noms: UITA-6, Precious-5, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, and Invictus-4, An Education, and Up-3, and Avatar, Serious Man, and The Last Station-2.

Noms and Nears together: Inglorious Basterds-7, UITA, An Education, and Nine-6, Hurt Locker, Precious, and Invictus-5, Serious Man, District 9, and The Messenger-4, Avatar, Up, A Single Man and The Last Station-3, Julie & julia, It's Complicated, and Fantastic Mr. Fox-2.

Telluride Noms-15...Nears: 6 (Other nears: Bright Star, The Road).

Thursday, January 7, 2010

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #7

Director's Guild Noms are out: Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, James Cameron/Avatar, Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, Lee Daniels/Precious and Jason Reitman/Up in the Air.

Daniels edges out Eastwood...Daniels gets the boost he needed after the Golden Globes snub.

Now on to the Clearinghouse update...EXPANDED! (Now more categories). TFF in CAPS & BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Avatar, 4) Precious, 5) Inglorious Basterds, 6) Invictus, 7) AN EDUCATION, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Nine

Outsiders: The Messenger, District 9, THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, Crazy Heart

Gone: The Lovely Bones, Star Trek

Hot: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, District 9 and Crazy Heart

Not: Invictus, Nine

Comment: The Lovely Bone collapse is complete as it drops entirely off the top 15 contenders for Best Pic...Nine's collapse is on-going and I expect it to continue. As a matter of fact, I think that the top 5 spots are solid, and that everything after that is still in play. I think it's likely that An Education and Invictus support is soft, that Up will suffer because it's animated and A Serious Man is awfully "small" and "nichey"...That means that any one of or maybe all 5 of the "outsiders" are still in play for a best Pic nomination.

Director: 1) K. Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) J. Cameron/Avatar, 3) J. REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Q. Tarantino/Basterds, 5) C. Eastwood/Invictus

Also...L. Daniels/Precious, L. SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, Coen Bros./Serious Man, M. HANEKE/THE WHITE RIBBON, J. CAMPION/BRIGHT STAR, P. Jackson/Lovely Bones

Gone: R. Marshall/Nine

Hot: Tanatino and Haneke

Not: Reitman and Daniels...although as noted above, the DGA nod today probably changes this assessment

Comment: Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman are locks...then Eastwood, Daniels and Tarantino are duking it out for the last 2 spots...although Tarantino is closing in on lock status as well.

Best Actor: 1) G. CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 2) J. Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) C. Firth/A Single man, 4) M. Freeman/Invictus, 5) J. Renner/Hurt Locker

Others: D. Day-Lewis/Nine, V. MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, T. Maguire/Brothers, M. Sthulbarg/A Serious Man, B. Foster/The Messenger.

Hot: Maguire


Gone: Matt Damon/The Informant

Comment: The separation between the top five and the rest is now substantial. Renner has established himself as a probable nominee. Mortensen may have the best chance to sneak in and unseat Freeman or Renner...

Best Actress: 1) C. MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) M. Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) G. Sidibe/Precious, 4) S. Bullock/Blind Side, 5) H. MIRREN/LAST STATION

Others: M. Cotillard/Nine, A. CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, S. Ronan/Lovely Bones, E. Blunt/Young Victoria, P. Cruz/Broken Embraces.

Hot: Blunt


Gone:M. Gyllenhall/Crazy Heart

Comment: The 5 nominations are done.

Supporting Actor: 1) C. Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) C. PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 3) W. Harrelson/The Messenger, 4) S. Tucci/Lovely Bones, 5) M. Damon/Invictus

Others: A. MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, C. McKay/Orson Welles and Me, A. Baldwin/It's Complicated, A. Mackie/Hurt Locker, P. SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION


Not: A. Molina


Comment: Surprisingly, Tucci has been able to withstand the collapse of The Lovely far. I think he and Damon are still vulnerable. McKay and Molina still have some hope.

Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) A. KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Others: S. Morton/The Messenger, M. Cotillard/Public Enemies, J. Dench/Nine, M. Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and D. Kruger/Inglorious Basterds.

Hot: Cotillard


Gone: Natalie Portman/Brothers and Sigourney Weaver/Avavtar

Comment: The top 4 spots seem solid. I think Cruz will drop and be replaced by Morton.

Adapted Script: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) AN EDUCATION, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 5) District 9 (although there is some buzz that it's not eligible!!!)

Others: Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are, Julie and Julia, THE LAST STATION, In the Loop

Hot: Dist. 9, Fox, and Wild Things

Not: Julie and Julia

Gone: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. The top three seem locked...then it's any one's guess for the last two spots. Gotta say...surprised that A Single Man dropped off the top ten.

Original Script: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) Up, 5) (500) Days of Summer

Others: The Messenger, It's Complicated, Avatar, WHITE RIBBON, BRIGHT STAR

Hot: The Messenger

Not: Avatar

Gone: District 9 (moved to Adapted)

Comment: The top 5 might have this locked already.

TECH Categories!

Art Direction: Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, Public Enemies...

Cinematography:Inglorious Basterds, Nine, The Hurt Locker, BRIGHT STAR, Avatar...

Film Editing: UP IN THE AIR, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Inglorious Basterds...

Score: Up, Avatar, The Informant, Sherlock Holmes, Where the Wild Things Are...

Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up Star Trek, Transformers...

Sound Mixing: Avatar, Transformers, Star Trek, Up, The Hurt Locker...

Costume: BRIGHT STAR, Nine, Young Victoria, Inglorious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes...

Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, Princess and the Frog (twice) and Everybody's Fine...

Documentary: The Cove, Food Inc., Every little Step, Burma VJ, Mugabe and the White African

Foreign Film: A PROPHET, THE WHITE RIBBON, SAMSON AND DELILAH, Letters to father Jacob, Broken Promise.

Predicted Nominations:

The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds-8


Up-6 (includes anticipated Best Animation nom)




THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart-2

Telluride connected other possible nominations:

An Education-3

The Last Station-3

The White Ribbon-3

Bright Star-3

The Road-2

Coco Before Chanel-1

Toatal TFF #36 Nominations-18 (includes 3 in Foreign Film...excludes Animation, Short Doc)

Additional TFF #36 possibles: 15
Final thoughts:
Will Nine's collapse eat its Tech nominations?
Does the PGA nom mean Star Trek might stage a Best Pic comeback?
Do The Messenger, District 9 or The Last Station have enough steam to move into the Best Picture race in the next three weeks?
The Road sits at #16 on the Best Pic chart and #11 on Adapted Screenplay...any chance in either category?
Can anyone derail Waltz or Mo'Nique?

Nominations are 3 and 1/2 weeks away!

Tuesday, January 5, 2010

TFF #36 : The PGA and National Film Critics

The last three days have provided the 10 Producer Guild nominees: Avatar, District Nine, Star Trek, AN EDUCATION, UP IN THE AIR, The Hurt Locker, Invictus, Inglorious Basterds, Precious, and Up...absentees: Nine, Lovely Bones, Crazy Heart, The Last Station, A Single Man, A Serious Man, The Messenger and THE ROAD.

Will these be the 10 Best Pic noms? I doubt it. I have a hard time believing that the Academy will nominate all 3 Sci Fi pictures (Avatar, Trek, Dist. 9)...

Meanwhile the National Society of Film Critics says Best Pic is The Hurt Locker, with Kathryn Bigelow as Best Director, Jeremy Renner/Best Actor, Yolande Moreau won Best Actress for Seraphine (word is the Meryl Streep and Jeff Bridges were both close seconds in their respective categories). As expected, Christoph Waltz won Supporting Actor for Basterds and Mo'Nique won supporting Actress for Precious. (the Supporting races may just be over!) The Screenplay commendation went to A Serious Man by the Coen Brothers.

Between the two groups boosts for Hurt Locker, Bigelow, and Renner as well as the Sci Fi threesome of films foe a Best Pic Nom...

We'll have an updated set of combined charts this week.

Happy New Year!