The Verdict/The Oscar Clearinghouse

Ms. Bigelow...a big night for her...

Well...I have hesitated to post since Sunday night because I have been extraordinarily busy in the real world this week and because the prediction success was less than stellar. I managed to miss about every category that seemed to be the least bit competitive...so,

If there were surprises to be found they occurred when Precious won adapted screenplay and Hurt Locker won Sound Editing and Sound Mixing...Maybe a little surprise that The Secret of Her Eyes won Foreign Film, but there had been some buzz that that might be the case the last couple of weeks before the ceremony.

I also managed to goob the categories that receive less attention, missing Short Doc, Live Short and Animated Short... and if you're supposed to be any good at this, that's where you should shine. Overall, I got 14 right and missed on 10...and cannot point to a single pick this year that makes me look prescient.

Time for a break...I will probably post one more speculative pre-summer analysis for this falls TFF line-up and then the blog will be gone for the next 3 months or so...We'll crank the blog back up again in late May/early June to start the real speculation for TFF #37...and actually that's already begun. We've already reported Jeff Wells' speculation that the Hathaway/Gyllenhall starrer Love and Other Drugs might show up on Labor Day...and late last week Hit Fix suggested that Woody Allen's new film "You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger" might also be in line....

More in a couple of days...

The Oscar Clearinghouse #12...Last Call???

Probably the last post til it's all over on Sunday night. Here's the best guesses...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow-The Hurt Locker

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges-Crazy Heart

Best Actress: Meryl Streep-Julie and Julia (bold, huh?)

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique-Precious

Best Supporting Actor-Christoph Waltz-Inglourious Basterds

Original Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds (bit of a surprise over Hurt Locker)

Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air

Animated Film: Up

Foreign: The White Ribbon

Cinematography: The Hurt Locker (bit of a surprise over Avatar...tho White Ribbon w/n surprise me either)

Film Editing: The Hurt Locker

Art Direction: Avatar

Sound Editing: Avatar

Sound Mixing: Avatar

Visual Effects: Avatar

Makeup: Star Trek

Score: Up

Song: The Weary Kind-Crazy Heart

Costumes: Young Victoria

Documentary: The Cove

Short Doc: The Last Truck

Live Short: The Door

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Comments:

1) Only 5 categories are the least bit competitive, if the conventional wisdom is correct...Actress (and that's probably just me that thinks it's competitive. I seem to be very lonely picking Streep...everything else says it's Bullock's to win), Foreign Film, Editing, Cinematography and Original Screenplay.

2) My totals if correct: Hurt Locker-4, Avatar-4, Up-2, Crazy Heart-2 and Inglourious Basterds-2...as your only multiple winners.

3) Telluride films win 4 Oscars if I'm right...Adapted Screenplay for Up in the Air, Foreign Film for The White Ribbon, Short Doc-The Last Truck and Live Short-The Door.

And this last word...Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere speculates that "Love and Other Drugs" featuring Anne Hathaway and Jake Gyllenhall may be in line to play at TFF #37...so the game begins anew!

See you on the other side...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearingouse #11

With less than two weeks until Oscar night...almost no suspense...

TFF #36 films in bold

Here's the distilled wisdom from The Envelope, And the Winner Is, The Oscar Guy, Gurus of Gold, The Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery...

Best Picture: The Hurt Locker edges Avatar. No other really serious competition. If there was an upset...Inglourious Basterds or Up in the Air. Least Likely Winner: The Blind Side

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow is WAY OUT FRONT. Cameron is a distant second. Least Likely: Lee Daniels for Precious

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in a walk. Clooney a distant challenger. Least Likely: Morgan Freeman.

Best Actress: Sandra Bullock has a big lead with Meryl Streep her only real competition (this is where I think an upset happens and Streep wins). Least Likely: Helen Mirren

Best Supporting Actor: Engrave Christoph Waltz's trophy now. Purported challenge: Harrelson. Least Likely: Matt Damon

Best Supporting Actress: Mo'Nique (and has been for months)...if there were a challenger it might be: Anna Kendrick (but she won't be). Least Likely: Penelope Cruz

Best Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air is the massive favorite. Challenger...uh...Precious? Least Likely: In the Loop

Best Original Screenplay: An actual fight here! Hurt Locker has a tiny lead over Basterds (I'm leaning towards Basterds)...Least Likely: The Messenger

Animated: Up...Duh. Least Likely: The Secret of Kells

Documentary: The Cove has a substantial edge over Food Inc. Least Likely: Which Way Home

Foreign: Hey...an actual contested category...a 3 way battle brewing between The White Ribbon, A Prophet and The Secret of Her Eyes

Short Doc: The Last Truck way out front

Live Short: The Door in the lead

Art Direction: Avatar is the prohibitive favorite...Least Likely: Parnassus

Cinematography: A close race with Avatar barely in front of The Hurt Locker. Least Likely: Harry Potter

Costumes: Young Victoria is the prohibitive favorite. Least Likely: Parnassus

Film Editing: A close battle here again with Hurt Locker leading Avatar slightly. Least Likely: Precious

Sound Editing: Avatar is way out front. Least Likely: Inglourious Basterds

Sound Mixing: Again Avatar in a walk. Least Likely: Transformers

Visual Effects: Anyone think Avatar doesn't win this? Least Likely...well the other two

Score: Up has a big lead here. Least Likely: The Hurt Locker

Song: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart easily. Least Likely: Paris 36

Animated Short: A Matter of Loaf and Death

Final thoughts and personal predictions next week...

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 10

Here are this morning's Oscar nominations courtesy of Entertainment Weekly:

Best Picture:

Avatar, The Blind Side, District 9, An Education, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, A Serious Man, Up, Up in the Air

Comment: Blind Side in and Invictus out. I'm not surprised that Invictus didn't get nominated...I am a little surprised that The Blind Side is what grabbed what had been its spot for the last several months. The Chart goes

Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart, George Clooney, Up in the Air, Colin Firth, A Single Man, Morgan Freeman, Invictus, Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker.

Comment: Chart and I both said these five. Seems the Invictus swoon did not sink either Freeman or Damon.
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side, Helen Mirren, The Last Station, Carey Mulligan, An Education, Gabourey Sidibe, Precious, Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia.

Comment: Again, the chart and I 5 for 5...no surprises at all here.

Best Supporting Actor: Matt Damon, Invictus, Woody Harrelson, The Messenger, Christopher Plummer, The Last Station, Stanley Tucci, The Lovely Bones, Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Again 5 for 5 with the chart. I lose out having picked The Hurt Locker's Anthony Mackie instead of Damon. I was personally still hoping for a little love for Alfred Molina.

Best Supporting Actress: Penélope Cruz, Nine, Vera Farmiga, Up in the Air, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Crazy Heart, Anna Kendrick, Up in the Air, Mo’Nique, Precious .

Comment: The chart hits 4 of 5...missing Maggie Gyllenhall for Julianne Moore. i missed that as well in addition to thinking Samantha Morton could supplant Penelope Cruz...so I go 3 for 5.

Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker, James Cameron, Avatar, Lee Daniels, Precious, Jason Reitman, Up in the Air, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds.

Comment: Done and done.

Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal, The Hurt Locker, Alessandro Camon & Oren Moverman, The Messenger, Joel Coen & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man, Pete Docter, Bob Peterson & Tom McCarthy, Up, Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds .

Comment: Chart and I 4 for 5...missed The Messenger for (500) Days of Summer...and makes you wonder if The Messenger was kind of close in the Best Picture category?

Best Adapted Screenplay: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche, In the Loop, Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell, District 9, Geoffrey Fletcher, Precious, Nick Hornby, An Education, Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air .

Comment: The Chart goes 4 for 5 and I go 3 for 5. The Chart and I both miss "In the Loop" I also had Julie and Julia instead of District 9. In the Loop wasn't a total surprise as it had been floating around the chart on and off for quite some time.

Best Animated Film: Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, The Secret of Kells, Up.

Comment: Me and the chart 4 for 5. "The Secret of the Kells"???What the?

Best Foreign Language Film: El Secreto do Sus Ojos (Argentina), Un Prophete (France), The White Ribbon (Germany), Ajami (Israel), The Milk of Sorrow (Peru).

Comment:3 for 5 for the chart and me...I think the absence of Samson and Delilah is kind of a surprise.
Best Art Direction: Avatar, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, The Young Victoria .

Comment: Man, am I glad I didn't pick the tech categories this year...the chart goes 1 for 5...sheesh...It got Avatar right and missed everything else.

Best Cinematography:Avatar, Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, The White Ribbon

Comment:Chart hits 4 for 5 missing Harry Potter with Nine

Best Costume Design: Bright Star, Coco Before Chanel, The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, Nine, The Young Victoria.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5 missing Parnassus and Coco with Basterds and Sherlock.

Best Documentary: Burma VJ, The Cove, Food, Inc., The Most Dangerous Man in America: Daniel Ellsberg and the Pentagon Papers, Which Way Home.

Comment: Chart was a whopping 2 for 5. Most Dangerous Man was sort of a surprise...Which Way Home is a stunner.

Best Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious.

Comment: $ for 5. Missing Precious for UITA...

Best Makeup: Il Divo, Star Trek, The Young Victoria.

Comment: 1 for 3...

Best Score: Avatar, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Hurt Locker, Sherlock Holmes, Up.

Comment: Chart goes 3 for 5. Missed Fox and The Hurt Locker.

Best Song: “Almost There,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman,

“Down in New Orleans,” The Princess and the Frog, Randy Newman

“Loin de Paname,” Paris 36, Reinhardt Wagner & Frank Thomas

“Take It All,” Nine, Maury Weston

“The Weary Kind,” Crazy Heart, T-Bone Burnett & Ryan Bingham

Comment: 3 for 5 with Take It All being the big surprise.

Best Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Star Trek, Up

Comment: 3 for 5...

Best Sound Mixing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious , Trek, Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen

Comment: 4 for 5

Best Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Comment: Got 'em...there's a shocker!

Best Documentary Short: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan Province, The Last Campaign of Governor Booth Gardner, The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant, Music by Prudence, Rabbit à la Berlin

Best Animated Short: French Roast, Granny O’Grimm’s Sleeping Beauty, The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte) Logorama, A Matter of Loaf and Death

Best Live-Action Short:The Door, Instead of Abracadabra, Kavi, Miracle Fish, The New Tenants

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse # 9

Final number-crunching before tomorrow's nominations (data from : And the Winner Is, In Contention, Movie City News, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Rope of Silicon and Film Misery)...TELLURIDE PICS IN CAPS AND BOLD...

Opening notes: DGA/PGA wins for The Hurt Locker...is it the lock to win Best Picture now??? I had thought for some time that Cameron would win Best Director and that Up in the Air would win Best Picture...I'm re-evaluating that now...

Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) Inglorious Basterds, 4) UP IN THE AIR, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) Invictus, 9) District 9, 10) A Serious Man.

Spoilers: The Messenger, (500) Days of Summer, Nine, The Hangover, Star Trek

Comment:The top ten are so far out front that if anything else got a nod it would be pretty shocking...so look for a shocker or two...

My picks: I'll go with the chart...but...Messenger in and Invictus out???

Best Director: 1) Bigelow/Locker, 2) Cameron/Avatar, 3) Tarantino/Basterds, 4) REITMAN/UITA, 5) Daniels/Precious

Spoilers: Blomkamp/Dist. 9, Eastwood/Invictus

My Picks: Charts are right, no surprises here.

Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 5) Morgan Feeman/Invictus

Spoilers: MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Maguire/Brothers

My Picks: Gotta agree with the chart...although, like everything else with Invictus, Freeman has been losing steam...

Best Actress: 1) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie and Julia, 3) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION.

Spoilers: Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Marion Cotillard/Nine

My Picks: These 5 have been set for a long time.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus

Spoliers: ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, Anthony Mackie/The Hurt Locker, Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me

My Picks: Take the top 4 but move Matt Damon out in favor of Anthony Mackie.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UITA, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UITA, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Spoilers: Samantha Morton/The Messenger, MaggieGyllenhall/Crazy Heart

My Picks: There's a real battle royale for the fifth spot here. I'll go with the chart top 4 and Samantha Morton.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) District 9, 5) Crazy Heart

Spoliers: Fantastic Mr. Fox, A Single Man, Julie and Julia

My Picks: No place else is the collapse of Invictus more clearly seen than in this category. It's totally gone...I'll go with UITA, Precious, EDUCATION, Crazy Heart and Julie and Julia.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) (500) Days of Summer, 4) Up, 5) A Serious Man

Spoliers: The Hangover, Avatar

My Picks: Go with the charted 5

Best Foreign Film: 1) (tie) A PROPHET and THE WHITE RIBBON, 3)Ajami, 4) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 5) Winter in Wartime

Spoiler: Kelin

My Picks: I'll agree with the chart.

Best Documentary: 1) (tie) Food Inc and The Cove, 3) Every Little Step, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) Under Our Skin

Spoilers: Beaches of Agnes, Burma VJ, Facing Ali, Valentino: The Last Emperor.

My Picks: Food, Cove, Every Little Step, Facing Ali and Beaches of Agnes

Short Doc: LAST TRUCK, Lt. Wataba, Music by Prudence, Tell Them Anything

My Picks: OK

Tech Nominations:

Art Direction: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, A Serious Man, Public Enemies and Where the Wild Things Are. Spoilers: Sherlock Holmes, District 9, Start Trek, Bright Star

Cinematography: Avatar, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, THE WHITE RIBBON. Spoilers: District 9

Costumes: BRIGHT STAR, Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Sherlock Holmes, Young Victoria

Spoilers: COCO BEFORE CHANEL

Film Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, UP IN THE AIR, District 9, Inglorious Basterds

Spoilers: Star Trek

Makeup: District 9, Star Trek, Dr. Parnassuss

Original Score: Avatar, The Informant!, Sherlock Holmes, Up, A Singlr Man

Spoiler: Fantastic Mr. Fox

Original Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, everybody's Fine, Princess and the Frog, Where the Wild Things Are

Spoilers: Second nominations for Nine and/or Princess and the Frog

Sound Editing: Avatar, District 9, The Hurt Locker, Star Trek, Transformers

Spoiler:Up

Sound Mixing: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek, The Hurt Locker, Transformers

Spoiler: Up

Visual Effects: Avatar, District 9, Star Trek

Spoiler:2012

Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

Spoiler: Ponyo

Multiple Nominations per the charts:

Avatar-9

The Hurt Locker-8

UP IN THE AIR, Inglorious Basterds, District 9-7

Precious, Nine, Star Trek-5

Up-4

AN EDUCATION, Invictus, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart, A Single Man-3

THE WHITE RIBBON, THE LAST STATION, Sherlock Holmes, Princess and the Frog, Transformers-2

Comments: It's hard for me to believe that The Messenger, Crazy Heart, A Single Man and The Last Station may end up with multiple acting nominations, but NOT get into the expanded field of 10 Best Picture nominees. I can see each of them eking out an extra nom or two for screenplay or costuming and slipping into the ten...What are the films that are currently on the chart that are vulnerable: Invictus, Up, A Serious Man, District 9...

Saw The Hurt Locker this weekend, finally...good, not great...over-rated! Capping what has turned out to be a fairly mediocre year...

Last play for why The Road could sneak in...Moretensen is loved...and it's a good performance...they have to fill 10 spots. It's on 18 top ten lists (currently at #28 on the Movie City News critics scoreboard for the year...but a lot of what is ahead of it won't have a shot at a nomination...)and it was the best film of the year...

Watch for....

* If Maggie Gyllenhall gets nommed for Crazy Heart and/or it gets a screenplay nod...it's got a shot at a Best Picture nom

*If A Single Man gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture pool

*If Samantha Morton gets a nomination...The Messenger could be a Best Picture nom

*If Matt Damon does NOT get a Supporting nom...Invictus is in some trouble

*If The Last Station gets a screenplay nom...it could be in the Best Picture lineup

And finally...if the charts are correct, TFF #36 will post 18 nominations tomorrow...

TFF # 36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #8

The Golden Globes are done, the Writer's Guild nominations are in (with some weirdness)...and we're less than two weeks away from nominations being announced...here's The Clearinghouse (using data from: In Contention, And the Winner Is, Gurus of Gold, The Envelope, The Oscar Guy, Awards Circuit, Film Experience, Rope of Silicon, and Film Misery). As always TELLURIDE FILMS IN CAPS AND BOLD.

Best Picture: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Avatar, 3) UP IN THE AIR, 4) Inglorious Basterds, 5) Precious, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Invictus, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) District 9, 11) Nine, 12) The Messenger, 13) A Single Man, 14) Star Trek, 15) The Hangover

Hot: District 9, Star Trek, The Hangover

Not: Up in the Air

Gone: The Last Station, Crazy Heart

Comment: The top 10 are pretty solid this week. I am surprised Nine still has any wind in its sails...UITA suffers its first real drop in popularity this week...but I still think it will win Best Picture. And The Hangover gets a boost from its Golden Globe win as Best Comedy/Musical.

I also still think The Messenger and The Last Station could sneak in here...and I'm also still beating the drum for The Road.

Best Director: 1) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) James Cameron/Avatar, 3) JASON REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, 5) Lee Daniels/Precious, 6) Clint Eastwood/Invictus, 7) LONE SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, 8) The Coen Brothers/A Serious Man, 9) Neil Blomkamp/District 9, 10 ) Rob Marshall/Nine.

Hot: Blomkamp and Marshall

Gone: Michael Haneke

Comment: The battle for the last spot is still between Daniels and Eastwood and Daniels now seems to have the inside track. The top 4 spots are solid. Neil Blomkamp benefits from the Dist. 9 surge and Marshall from the multiple Golden Globe noms for Nine.

Best Actor: 1) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Colin Firth/A Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker, 6) VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, 7) Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, 8) Michael Stuhlbarg/A Serious Man, 9) Tobey Maguire/Brothers, 10) Matt Damon/The Informant

Hot: Damon

Gone: Ben Foster/The Messenger

Comment: Renner seems to have solidified his place as a nominee. Moretensen is the spoiler.

Best Actress: 1) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 2) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 3) Sandra Bullock/Blind Side, 4) Gabourey Sidibe/Precious, 5) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION, 6) Marion Cotillard/Nine, 7) ABBY CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, 8) Emily Blunt/Young Victoria, 9) Saroise Ronan/The Lovely Bones, 10) (tie) Melanie Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces.

Hot: Laurent

Comment: Anybody but the top 5 getting a nomination would be a stunner.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger, 3) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION, 4) Stanley Tucci/The Lovely Bones, 5) Matt Damon/Invictus, 6) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 7) Christian McKay/Orson Welles and Me, 8) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, 9) Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, 10) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.

Comment: Waltz continues to have a perfect score. Tucci is still not suffering from the collapse of The Lovely Bones. I think Damon, Molina and McKay are duking it out for the last spot.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) ANNA KEDNDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 6) Samantha Morton/The Messenger, 7) Judi Dench/Nine, 8) (tie) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies, Diane Kruger/Ingloroius Basterds, 10) Melanie Laurent/Ingloroius Basterds

Comment: Mo'Nique maintains her perfect score. The battle is between Cruz and Morton for the fifth nom. The top four are solid. Kendrick is the only one with a wisp of a chance to unseat Mo'Nique.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 6) District 9, 7) Julie & Julia, 8) THE LAST STATION, 9) (tie) A Single Man and Where the Wild Things Are.

Hot: A Single Man

Gone: Into the Loop

Best Original Screenplay: 1) (tie) The Hurt Locker and Ingloroius Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) (500) Days of Summer, 5) Up, 6) Avatar, 7) It's Complicated, 8) The Hangover, 9) The White ribbon, 10) The Messenger

Gone: BRIGHT STAR

Comment: The top 3 spots are secure...after that..any one's guess about the last 2 spots. If I were betting right now I'd go with District 9 and Julie and Julia displacing Invictus and Mr. Fox...although I'd love to see The Last Station sneak in.

And...

Documentary: 1) (tie) The Cove and Food Inc., 3) Burma VJ, 4) Mugabe and the White African, 5) The Beaches of Agnes, 6) Every Little Step, 7) Under Our Skin, 8) (tie) Soundtrack of a Revolution and Facing Ali, 10) Garbage Dreams

Hot: Garbage Dreams

Not: Every Little Step

Gone: Valentino: The Emperor

Comment: Horse race at the top between The Cove and Food Inc. Everything else is just playing to get a nomination.

Animated: 1) Up, 2) Fantastic Mr. Fox, 3) Coraline, 4) The Princess and the Frog, 5) Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs, 6) Ponyo, 7) A Christmas Carol, 8) Monsters and Aliens, 9) 9 10) Ice Age 3

Comment: Up..nuff said

Foreign Film: 1) A PROPHET, 2) THE WHITE RIBBON, 3) SAMSON AND DELILAH, 4) (tie) Broken Promises, Mother, Baaria, 7) Forever Enthralled

Comment: Also look for THE LAST TRUCK in short documentary. Ribbon and Prophet battle for the prize...no other film is probably going to challenge to actually win the Oscar.

Bottom Lines: Big 8 Noms: UITA-6, Precious-5, Hurt Locker, Inglorious Basterds, and Invictus-4, An Education, and Up-3, and Avatar, Serious Man, and The Last Station-2.

Noms and Nears together: Inglorious Basterds-7, UITA, An Education, and Nine-6, Hurt Locker, Precious, and Invictus-5, Serious Man, District 9, and The Messenger-4, Avatar, Up, A Single Man and The Last Station-3, Julie & julia, It's Complicated, and Fantastic Mr. Fox-2.

Telluride Noms-15...Nears: 6 (Other nears: Bright Star, The Road).

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #7

Director's Guild Noms are out: Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, James Cameron/Avatar, Quentin Tarantino/Inglorious Basterds, Lee Daniels/Precious and Jason Reitman/Up in the Air.

Daniels edges out Eastwood...Daniels gets the boost he needed after the Golden Globes snub.

Now on to the Clearinghouse update...EXPANDED! (Now more categories). TFF in CAPS & BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Avatar, 4) Precious, 5) Inglorious Basterds, 6) Invictus, 7) AN EDUCATION, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Nine

Outsiders: The Messenger, District 9, THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, Crazy Heart

Gone: The Lovely Bones, Star Trek

Hot: Avatar, Inglorious Basterds, District 9 and Crazy Heart

Not: Invictus, Nine

Comment: The Lovely Bone collapse is complete as it drops entirely off the top 15 contenders for Best Pic...Nine's collapse is on-going and I expect it to continue. As a matter of fact, I think that the top 5 spots are solid, and that everything after that is still in play. I think it's likely that An Education and Invictus support is soft, that Up will suffer because it's animated and A Serious Man is awfully "small" and "nichey"...That means that any one of or maybe all 5 of the "outsiders" are still in play for a best Pic nomination.

Director: 1) K. Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 2) J. Cameron/Avatar, 3) J. REITMAN/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Q. Tarantino/Basterds, 5) C. Eastwood/Invictus

Also...L. Daniels/Precious, L. SCHERFIG/AN EDUCATION, Coen Bros./Serious Man, M. HANEKE/THE WHITE RIBBON, J. CAMPION/BRIGHT STAR, P. Jackson/Lovely Bones

Gone: R. Marshall/Nine

Hot: Tanatino and Haneke

Not: Reitman and Daniels...although as noted above, the DGA nod today probably changes this assessment

Comment: Bigelow, Cameron and Reitman are locks...then Eastwood, Daniels and Tarantino are duking it out for the last 2 spots...although Tarantino is closing in on lock status as well.

Best Actor: 1) G. CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 2) J. Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) C. Firth/A Single man, 4) M. Freeman/Invictus, 5) J. Renner/Hurt Locker

Others: D. Day-Lewis/Nine, V. MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, T. Maguire/Brothers, M. Sthulbarg/A Serious Man, B. Foster/The Messenger.

Hot: Maguire

Not:

Gone: Matt Damon/The Informant

Comment: The separation between the top five and the rest is now substantial. Renner has established himself as a probable nominee. Mortensen may have the best chance to sneak in and unseat Freeman or Renner...

Best Actress: 1) C. MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) M. Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) G. Sidibe/Precious, 4) S. Bullock/Blind Side, 5) H. MIRREN/LAST STATION

Others: M. Cotillard/Nine, A. CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, S. Ronan/Lovely Bones, E. Blunt/Young Victoria, P. Cruz/Broken Embraces.

Hot: Blunt

Not:

Gone:M. Gyllenhall/Crazy Heart

Comment: The 5 nominations are done.

Supporting Actor: 1) C. Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) C. PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 3) W. Harrelson/The Messenger, 4) S. Tucci/Lovely Bones, 5) M. Damon/Invictus

Others: A. MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, C. McKay/Orson Welles and Me, A. Baldwin/It's Complicated, A. Mackie/Hurt Locker, P. SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION

Hot:

Not: A. Molina

Gone:

Comment: Surprisingly, Tucci has been able to withstand the collapse of The Lovely Bones...so far. I think he and Damon are still vulnerable. McKay and Molina still have some hope.

Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) A. KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Julianne Moore/A Single Man, 5) Penelope Cruz/Nine

Others: S. Morton/The Messenger, M. Cotillard/Public Enemies, J. Dench/Nine, M. Laurent/Inglorious Basterds and D. Kruger/Inglorious Basterds.

Hot: Cotillard

Not:

Gone: Natalie Portman/Brothers and Sigourney Weaver/Avavtar

Comment: The top 4 spots seem solid. I think Cruz will drop and be replaced by Morton.

Adapted Script: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) AN EDUCATION, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 5) District 9 (although there is some buzz that it's not eligible!!!)

Others: Fantastic Mr. Fox, Where the Wild Things Are, Julie and Julia, THE LAST STATION, In the Loop

Hot: Dist. 9, Fox, and Wild Things

Not: Julie and Julia

Gone: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man

Comment: An incredibly fluid category. The top three seem locked...then it's any one's guess for the last two spots. Gotta say...surprised that A Single Man dropped off the top ten.

Original Script: 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) Inglorious Basterds, 3) A Serious Man, 4) Up, 5) (500) Days of Summer

Others: The Messenger, It's Complicated, Avatar, WHITE RIBBON, BRIGHT STAR

Hot: The Messenger

Not: Avatar

Gone: District 9 (moved to Adapted)

Comment: The top 5 might have this locked already.

TECH Categories!

Art Direction: Inglorious Basterds, Nine, Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, Public Enemies...

Cinematography:Inglorious Basterds, Nine, The Hurt Locker, BRIGHT STAR, Avatar...

Film Editing: UP IN THE AIR, Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Nine, Inglorious Basterds...

Score: Up, Avatar, The Informant, Sherlock Holmes, Where the Wild Things Are...

Sound Editing: Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Up Star Trek, Transformers...

Sound Mixing: Avatar, Transformers, Star Trek, Up, The Hurt Locker...

Costume: BRIGHT STAR, Nine, Young Victoria, Inglorious Basterds, Sherlock Holmes...

Song: Crazy Heart, Nine, Princess and the Frog (twice) and Everybody's Fine...

Documentary: The Cove, Food Inc., Every little Step, Burma VJ, Mugabe and the White African

Foreign Film: A PROPHET, THE WHITE RIBBON, SAMSON AND DELILAH, Letters to father Jacob, Broken Promise.

Predicted Nominations:

The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Inglorious Basterds-8

UP IN THE AIR, Nine-7

Up-6 (includes anticipated Best Animation nom)

Invictus-5

Precious-4

AN EDUCATION, BRIGHT STAR-3

THE LAST STATION, A Single Man, A Serious Man, Crazy Heart-2

Telluride connected other possible nominations:

An Education-3

The Last Station-3

The White Ribbon-3

Bright Star-3

The Road-2

Coco Before Chanel-1

Toatal TFF #36 Nominations-18 (includes 3 in Foreign Film...excludes Animation, Short Doc)

Additional TFF #36 possibles: 15

Final thoughts:

Will Nine's collapse eat its Tech nominations?

Does the PGA nom mean Star Trek might stage a Best Pic comeback?

Do The Messenger, District 9 or The Last Station have enough steam to move into the Best Picture race in the next three weeks?

The Road sits at #16 on the Best Pic chart and #11 on Adapted Screenplay...any chance in either category?

Can anyone derail Waltz or Mo'Nique?

Nominations are 3 and 1/2 weeks away!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #6

Avatar is making a move on the Clearinghouse's lists.





Here is the latest update of our compilation of a number of Oscar prediciton sights and lists...highlighting the connections to TFF #36 (CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture- 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Precious, 4) Invictus, 4) Nine (tie), 6) Avatar, 7) Up, 8) AN EDUCATION, 9) Inglourious Basterds, 10) A Serious Man.

In the Hunt: The Lovely Bones, The Messenger, A Single Man,THE LAST STATION, Star Trek.

Comment: Big Mo...Avatar, Inglourious Basterds, The Messenger and Star Trek.

Losing Mo...An Education and The Lovely Bones (And I mean BIG TIME!).

Gone from the list: BRIGHT STAR, THE ROAD, and Julie and Julia.

My personal guess of the four big gainers is the The Messenger has legs and that both Avatar and Inglourious Basterds will lose some steam over the next few weeks...(Avatar because a number of reviews are saying the tech is great, but the movie itself...not so much and I think that Inglourious may have peaked...it did have a good week this week...but I think its violence may hold it back.)...I also still think that Last Station and now, The Messenger may have the best shot at moving onto the list of 10 nominees of those films that are not currently in the top 10...Other top 10 that may be at risk...An Education and Nine (the reviews for Nine are less than stellar). Can The Road sneak back into the conversation? It's Rotten Tomatoes average is 24 points better than Nine.

Also, saw Invictus this weekend...nice movie, decent perfromances from Freeman and Damon...but Oscar worthy? Nope. Will that matter to the Academy? Don't know.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) James Cameron/Avatar, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus

Sniffin' Around: Rob Marshall/Nine, Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, Coen Bros/Serious Man, and Peter Jackson/Bones.

Comment: Big Mo is with: Lee Daniels (weird since he got no Golden Globe love), James Cameron and Quentin Tarantino.

Losing ground: Rob Marshall and Peter Jackson

Goners: None

If Inglourious has legs, then Tarantino will move into the top 5...I think the only two sure bets at this point are my friend Jason Reitman and Kathryn Bigelow...The Lovely Bones collapse has almost swallowed Jackson...

Best Actor: 1) GEORGE CLOONEY/UITA, 2) Jeff Bridges/Crazy Heart, 3) Colin Firth/Single Man, 4) Morgan Freeman/Invictus, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker

In Play: Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, Michael Stuhlbarg/Serious Man, Matt Damon/The Informant, and Ben Foster/The Messenger.

Off the chart: Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine

Movers: Jeff Bridges and Ben Foster...Goin' South: Morgan Freeman

Comment: SAG noms seem to indicate that Day-Lewis and Nine (also Rob Marshall's decline in the director's race) are losing ground across the board. See above note about the reviews...may be having an impact already.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gaby Sidibe/Precious, 4) HELEN MIRREN/LAST STATION, 5) Sandra Bullock/The Blind Side.

Seeking: Marion Cotillard/Nine, ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, Saroise Ronan/ Lovely Bones, and Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Hot: Bullock and Cruz

Not: Cornish and Ronan

Gone: Michelle Monaghan/Trucker

Comment: The top 4 remain the same as our last post (3 weeks ago). Sandra Bullock has ascended like a rocket...

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Chrsitoph Waltz/Inglourious Basterds, 2) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 3)Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 4) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/LAST STATION, 5) Woody Harrelson/The Messenger

Also: Matt Damon/Invictus, Christian McKay/Orson Wellea and Me, Alec Baldwin/It's Complicated, Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, and PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION.

Hot: Harrelson and Baldwin

Not: Damon, Mackie and Saarsgard

Gone: Tucci (for J & J) and PAUL SCHNEIDER/BRIGHT STAR.

Thoughts: Harrelson came screaming onto the chart this past couple of weeks and Baldwin is a trendy pick too right now. Molina hasn't suffered any drop off among prognosticators despite the fact that he was snubbed by the Globes and the SAG announement...it's that SAG one that really seems to indicate a disconnect between the predictors and what seems to be the reality on the ground...which is no nom for Molina. Tucci also doesn't seem to be suffering from the drag of less than blazing critical embrace for The Lovely Bones...at least not yet. I suspect that if Molina and/or Tucci start losing traction that McKay and Baldwin are the most likely beneficiaries.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) MoNique/Precious, 2) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 3) Julianne Moore, 4) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR.

And...Samantha Morton/The Messenger, Judi Dench/Nine, Melanie Laurent/Inglourious Basterds, Natalie Portman/Brothers, and Sigourney Weaver/Avatar.

Hot: Morton, Laurent, Portman and Weaver

Not: Cruz

Gone: Sarandon, Cotillard, Carey

Notes: Weirdness as Melanie Laurent, who has been getting the notice as a potential nominee was overlooked in favor of Diane Kruger...who hasn't made the top ten of our combined survey (she just got a bit of notice in the wake of her SAG nom in this week's updates).

Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2)Precious, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Julie and Julia

Also: Nine, Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, and The Fantastic Mr. Fox

Hot: Julie and Julia and Fantastic Mr. Fox

Not: No one really dropping badly

Gone: Where the Wild Things Are

Comment: I suspect that the top 3 are solid. Invictus and J&J ,maybe not so much. If Bones and Nine continue to lose steam, then Single Man and Last Station probably benefit.

Original Screenplay; 1) The Hurt Locker, 2) A Serious Man, 3) Up, 4) Inglourious Basterds, 5) (500 Days) of Summer

And: Avatar, BRIGHT STAR, It's Complicated, The Messenger, and District Nine.

Hot: Hurt Locker, The Messenger and Avatar

Cold:Up and District 9

Gone: The White Ribbon

Notes: I think your top five right now are likely to be the nominees when they're announced Feb. 2

Nom leaders: UITA-6, Precious-4, Hurt Locker, Invictus, An Education-4, Inglourious Basterds-3

Noms and possibles combined: Nine-7 (5 now in the "possible category"...it's dropping like Lovely Bones did last month), UITA-6 (all noms!...the most solid thing going right now and has been since Telluride!). An Education also at 6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Basterds, Lovely Bomes and The Messenger -5, and Avatar, Serious Man, A Single Man and Last Station-4.

Telluride nominations as of this post i the Big 8 categories: 12...Possibles: 7. Down from the last post.

TFF #36 will also have some noms added for tech and foreign films (A Prophet and The White Ribbon are locks.)

The Clearinghouse will be back after the first of the year. We return to Telluride for the first time during the winter next week as we head there to ring in 2010...may catch a movie at The Nugget...rumored to be playing the last week of 2009...Up in the Air...weird, huh? Happy New Year Everyone!

TFF #36 Critics/AFI and The Oscar Clearinghouse

The Hurt Locker and Kathryn Bigelow have had a really good last couple of days...

The American Film Institue Top Ten for 2009:

“Coraline,” “The Hangover,””The Hurt Locker,” “The Messenger,” “Precious,” “A Serious Man,” “A Single Man,” “Sugar,” “Up” and “Up in the Air.”

Los Angeles Film Critics:

PICTURE: "The Hurt Locker"Runner-up: "Up in the Air"

DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow, "The Hurt Locker"Runner-up: Michael Haneke, "The White Ribbon"

ACTRESS: Yolande Moreau, "Séraphine"Runner-up: Carey Mulligan, "An Education"

ACTOR: Jeff Bridges, "Crazy Heart"Runner-up: Colin Firth, "A Single Man"

ANIMATION: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"Runner-up: “Up"

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Summer Hours"Runner-up: "The White Ribbon"

NEW GENERATION: Neill Blomkamp, "District 9"

MUSIC/SCORE: T-Bone Burnett and Stephen Bruton, "Crazy Heart"Runner-up: Alexandre Desplat, "Fantastic Mr. Fox"

PRODUCTION DESIGN: Philip Ivey, "District 9"Runner-up: Rick Carter and Robert Stromberg, "Avatar"

CINEMATOGRAPHY: Christian Berger, "The White Ribbon"Runner-up: Barry Ackroyd, "The Hurt Locker"

SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo'Nique, "Precious"Runner-up: Anna Kendrick, "Up in the Air"

SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz, "Inglourious Basterds"Runner-up: Peter Capaldi, "In the Loop"

SCREENPLAY: Jason Reitman and Sheldon Turner, “Up in the Air"Runner-up: Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci and Tony Roche, "In the Loop"

DOCUMENTARY / NON-FICTION FILM: "The Beaches of Agnès" and "The Cove" (tie)DOUGLAS E. EDWARDS INDEPENDENT/EXPERIMENTAL FILM/VIDEO: Anders Edstrom and C.W. Winter, "The Anchorage"

New York Film Critics:

FILM: "The Hurt Locker"
DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow for "The Hurt Locker"
SCREENPLAY: "In The Loop"
ACTRESS: Meryl Streep for "Julie & Julia"
ACTOR: George Clooney for "Up In The Air" and "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’Nique for "Precious"
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz for "Inglourious Basterds
CINEMATOGRAPHY: Christian Berger for "The White Ribbon"
ANIMATED FILM: "Fantastic Mr. Fox"
NON-FICTION FILM: "Of Time And The City"
FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: "Summer Hours"
FIRST FEATURE: "Hunger," director Steve McQueen

And the nominees for The Critics Choice Awards (Broadcast Film Critics):

BEST PICTURE
Nominees:• Avatar• An Education• The Hurt Locker • Inglourious Basterds• Invictus• Nine• Precious• A Serious Man • Up• Up In The Air
BEST ACTOR
Nominees:• Jeff Bridges - Crazy Heart • George Clooney - Up In The Air • Colin Firth - A Single Man• Morgan Freeman - Invictus • Viggo Mortensen - The Road • Jeremy Renner - The Hurt Locker
BEST ACTRESS
Nominees:• Emily Blunt - The Young Victoria • Sandra Bullock - The Blind Side • Carey Mulligan - An Education • Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones • Gabourey Sidibe - Precious • Meryl Streep - Julie & Julia
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Nominees:• Matt Damon - Invictus • Woody Harrelson - The Messenger • Christian McKay - Me And Orson Welles • Alfred Molina - An Education • Stanley Tucci - The Lovely Bones • Christoph Waltz - Inglourious Basterds
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Nominees:• Marion Cotillard - Nine • Vera Farmiga - Up In The Air • Anna Kendrick - Up In The Air • Mo’Nique - Precious • Julianne Moore - A Single Man • Samantha Morton - The Messenger
BEST YOUNG ACTOR/ACTRESS
Nominees:• Jae Head - The Blind Side • Bailee Madison - Brothers• Max Records - Where The Wild Things Are • Saoirse Ronan - The Lovely Bones • Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Road
BEST ACTING ENSEMBLE
Nominees:• Inglourious Basterds • Nine • Precious • Star Trek • Up In The Air
BEST DIRECTING
Nominees:• Kathryn Bigelow - The Hurt Locker• James Cameron - Avatar • Lee Daniels - Precious • Clint Eastwood - Invictus • Jason Reitman - Up In The Air• Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Nominees:• Mark Boal - The Hurt Locker • Joel Coen & Ethan Coen - A Serious Man • Scott Neustadter & Michael H. Weber - (500) Days Of Summer • Bob Peterson, Peter Docter - Up • Quentin Tarantino - Inglourious Basterds
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Nominees:• Wes Anderson, Noah Baumbach - Fantastic Mr. Fox • Neill Blomkamp, Terri Tatchell - District 9 • Geoffrey Fletcher - Precious • Tom Ford, David Scearce - A Single Man • Nick Hornby - An Education • Jason Reitman, Sheldon Turner - Up In The Air
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees:• The Hurt Locker• Nine • Avatar • The Lovely Bones• Inglourious Basterds
BEST ART DIRECTION
Nominees:• A Single Man • Avatar • Nine • The Lovely Bones• Inglourious Basterds
BEST EDITING
Nominees:• Up In The Air • Inglourious Basterds • The Hurt Locker • Avatar • Nine
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Nominees:• Nine • Bright Star • The Young Victoria • Inglourious Basterds • Where The Wild Things Are
BEST MAKEUP
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • Nine • The Road • Star Trek
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Lovely Bones • Star Trek • 2012
BEST SOUND
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Hurt Locker • Nine • Star Trek
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Nominees:• Cloudy With A Chance Of Meatballs • Coraline • Fantastic Mr. Fox • Princess And The Frog • Up
BEST ACTION MOVIE
Nominees:• Avatar • District 9 • The Hurt Locker • Inglourious Basterds • Star Trek
BEST COMEDY
Nominees:• (500) Days Of Summer • The Hangover • It’s Complicated • The Proposal • Zombieland
BEST PICTURE MADE FOR TELEVISION
Nominees:• Gifted Hands • Grey Gardens • Into The Storm • Taking Chance
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Nominees:• Broken Embraces• Coco Before Chanel • Red Cliff• Sin Nombre • The White Ribbon
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Nominees:• Anvil • Capitalism: A Love Story • The Cove • Food, Inc.• Michael Jackson’s This Is It
BEST SONG
Nominees:• "All Is Love" - Karen O, Nick Zinner - Where The Wild Things Are• "Almost There" - Randy Newman - The Princess And The Frog • "Cinema Italiano" - Maury Yeston - Nine • "(I Want To) Come Home" - Paul McCartney - Everybody’s Fine • "The Weary Kind" - T Bone Burnett, Ryan Bingham - Crazy Heart
BEST SCORE
Nominees:• Michael Giacchino - Up • Marvin Hamlisch - The Informant! • Randy Newman - The Princess and the Frog • Karen O, Carter Burwell - Where The Wild Things Are • Hans Zimmer - Sherlock Holmes

Commentary:

Well...obviously, "The Hurt Locker" is going strong...this may signal a bit of weakening in the "Up in the Air" juggernaut as well as the decline in support for "Precious". "The Last Station" may be suffering from its limited presence...(ONLY at Telluride)...Additionally, "TheLovely Bones" mixed (at best) reviews signal that its place in Osacr land continues to be questionable. And I'm kind of getting the vibe that "Avatar" may succumb to the sci-fi curse and get a bunch of tech nominations, but be shut out of Best Picture.

The Golden Globes nominations are announced tomorrow morning...we'll see what they reveal...and post the Clearinghouse one more time before we head away for the Holiday Break! See you tomorrow!

TFF #36/Oscar Clearinghouse and The National Board of Review

Invictus had a good day from the National Board of Review...Up in the Air's day was better...

The first real bell rang yesterday with the announcement from the National Board of Review of their choices for film excellence for 2009...good day for "Up in the Air"...

Here's their complete list:

Awards for 2009:
Best Film UP IN THE AIR

Top Ten Films(In alphabetical order) AN EDUCATION, (500) DAYS OF SUMMER, THE HURT LOCKER, INGLOURIOUS BASTERDS, INVICTUS, THE MESSENGER, A SERIOUS MAN, STAR TREK, UP, WHERE THE WILD THINGS ARE

Best Foreign Language Film A PROPHET

Top Five Foreign Films(In alphabetical order) THE MAID, REVANCHE, SONG OF SPARROWS, THREE MONKEYS, THE WHITE RIBBON

Best Documentary THE COVE

Top Five Documentaries(In alphabetical order) BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY, CRUDE, FOOD, INC., GOOD HAIR, THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

Top Independent Films(In alphabetical order) AMREEKA, DISTRICT 9, GOODBYE SOLO, HUMPDAY, IN THE LOOP, JULIA, ME AND ORSON WELLES, MOON, SUGAR, TWO LOVERS

Best ActorGEORGE CLOONEY, Up In The Air; MORGAN FREEMAN, Invictus

Best Actress CAREY MULLIGAN, An Education

Best Supporting Actor WOODY HARRELSON, The Messenger

Best Supporting Actress ANNA KENDRICK, Up In The Air

Best Ensemble Cast IT'S COMPLICATED

Breakthrough Performance by an Actor JEREMY RENNER, The Hurt Locker

Breakthrough Performance by an Actress GABOUREY SIDIBE, Precious

Spotlight Award for Best Directorial Debut DUNCAN JONES, Moon; OREN MOVERMAN, The Messenger; MARC WEBB, (500) Days of Summer

Best Director CLINT EASTWOOD, Invictus

Best Adapted Screenplay JASON REITMAN and SHELDON TURNER, Up In The Air

Best Original Screenplay JOEL AND ETHAN COEN, A Serious Man

Best Animated Feature UP

Special Filmmaking Achievement WES ANDERSON, The Fantastic Mr. Fox

William K. Everson Award For Film History JEAN PICKER FIRSTENBERG

Freedom Of Expression BURMA VJ: REPORTING FROM A CLOSED COUNTRY; INVICTUS; THE MOST DANGEROUS MAN IN AMERICA: DANIEL ELLSBERG AND THE PENTAGON PAPERS

TFF #36 players on NBR's awards list are: UITA gets Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Screenplay. AN EDUCATION gets Actress and Top Ten. Zip for The Road, Bright Star and The Last Station...

The only film playing in UITA's league on the NBR list was Clint Eastwood's Invictus...which got the directing nod for him plus a Best Actor tie with Clooney for Morgan Freeman and Top Ten as well as a nod on their "Freedom of Expression" list...

Other TFF films making noise on NBR's lists...A Prophet (Best Foreign), The White Ribbon (Top Five Foreign)...and Revanche from TFF #35 (Top Five Foreign).

MIA...Precious got one notice for Gabby Sidibe's "Breakthrough Female Performance". So is the "Precious" boom over??? Backlash anyone?

...and nothing yet from Avatar, Nine, or The Lovely Bones (purportedly Nine and Bones have been "seen" by the NBR folks and Avatar still not so much).

New York and LA film critics choices are just around the corner...what will they tell us?

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #5...Pre-Turkey Edition

Jeff Bridges is red hot in the Best Actor race...

As we get ready for Thanksgiving and the obligatory over eating that comes with it, here are some opening thoughts from the Clearinghouse before we get to the breakdown of each category...

UP IN THE AIR is staying strong and is considered by many to be the favorite to win Best Picture at this point...still with Nine, Lovely Bones, Invictus and Avatar still out there to be debuted it's not yet time to place your bets.

Saw trailers on the tube for Invictus, Avatar and UITA since our last post...Invictus looked better than I thought it would. Avatar does not. Lovely Bones continues a slight swoon as we move closer to its release...Avatar has gathered some heat in the interim since Clearinghouse # 4. and Jeff Bridges and "Crazy Heart" has zoomed onto the radar from complete obscurity in the last three weeks...we'll see if he and the movie have any staying power.

This entry of the Clearinghouse adds "Rope of Silicon", The Envelope and Gurus of Gold to the database...Now on to the categories...(TFF PIX IN CAPS AND BOLD)

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) The Hurt Locker, 3) Nine, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) Up, 8) The Lovely Bones, 9) Avatar, 10) A Serious Man.

Others in play: Inglorious Basterds, A Single Man, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, THE ROAD, Julie and Julia.

Comments: Biggest Momentum...Hurt Locker, Avatar, A Single Man (finally catching up to the heat in the Best Actor and Supporting Actress categories...which have actually cooled a little) and The Road gets a bump...maybe because it finally gets released this week. Tree of Life drops out of all categories (including director and script) as the various guessperts factor in its release date being set for 2010.

Best Direction: 1) JASON REITMAN, 2) Kathryn Bigelow, 3) Rob Marshall, 4) Clint Eastwood, 5) Lee Daniels.

Lurkers: James Cameron, Peter Jackson, LONE SCHERFIG, Quentin Tarantino, Coen Brothers.

Comments: James Cameron is getting some good buzz in the run up to the release of Avatar.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman, 2) GEORGE CLOONEY, 3) Colin Firth, 4) Jeff Bridges, 5) Daniel Day-Lewis.

Others: Jeremy Renner, VIGGO MORTENSEN, Matt Damon, Michael Stuhlbarg, Robert DeNiro.

Comments: Two weeks ago Jeff Bridges best shot at a nomination was thought to be in supporting for The Men Who Stare at Goats...man, these change fast! His performance has exploded out of almost nowhere to leap into the #4 spot as a likely nominee...And that's really hurt Jeremy Renner's campaign as he drops from nominee to a "maybe" in status. Also a nice couple of weeks for Viggo as he returns to consideration as does the serious man, Michael Stuhlbarg.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN, 2) Meryl Streep, 3) Gabby Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN, 5) ABBIE CORNISH.

Lurkers: Saroise Ronan, Marion Cotillard, Sandra Bullock, Maggie Gyllenhall, Michelle Monaghan.

Comments: Cornish returns to "nominee" status. Bullock and Gyllenhall both appear for the first time. And the fall of Hilary Swank and Amelia is complete as she drops completely off the chart.

Best Supporting Actor: 1) Christoph Waltz, 2) Stanley Tucci, 3) ALFRED MOLINA, 4) Matt Damon, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER.

On the Outside Looking In: PETER SAARSGARD, Anthony Mackie, Christian McKay, Stanley Tucci (again), PAUL SCHNEIDER.

Dropping Out: JAMES MC AVOY.

Comment: Matt Damon is losing a little steam and Paul Schneider returns to the chart, replacing fellow TFF #36 potential nominee James McAvoy.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique, 2) Penelope Cruz, 3) ANNA KENDRICK, 4) Julianne Moore, 5) VERA FARMIGA.

Lurkers: Judi Dench, Susan Sarandon, Samantha Morton, Marion Cotillard, Mariah Carey.

Comments: Moore falls a little bit and Samantha Morton comes on strong for her work in The Messenger. Also, Mariah Carey enters the chart...getting great notice for a small part and looking nothing like herself...look out for her.

Dropping out: Rachel Wiesz and Melanie Laurent.

Adapted Screenplay: 1) Precious, 2) UP IN THE AIR, 3) AN EDUCATION, 4) Invictus, 5) Nine

Others: The Lovely Bones, A Single Man, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia, Wild Things.

Dropping: THE ROAD.

Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days of Summer, 5) Inglorious Basterds.

And...BRIGHT STAR, District 9, It's Complicated, Avatar, THE WHITE RIBBON.

Dropping: Tree of Life and In the Loop.

Breakdown of THE BIG EIGHT CATEGORIES...Predicted Nominees: UP IN THE AIR-6, Nine, Precious, and Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION-4, and The Hurt Locker -3.

Nominations and Near Noms combined: Nine-7, UP IN THE AIR, Precious, AN EDUCATION, The Lovely Bones-6, The Hurt Locker, Invictus and A Single Man-5, Inglorious Basterds, BRIGHT STAR, THE LAST STATION, Julie and Julia-4

TFF#36...still 13 predicted nominations and 10 near noms...

The Clearinghouse will return next just prior to Christmas/New Years. Planning to spend New Year's Eve back in Telluride!

TFF #36 and The Oscar Clearinghouse #4

Welcome...So....Steve Martin and Alec Baldwin, eh? Can you say "It's Complicated"?

Here's your latest update using the services of: And the Winner Is, Film Misery, In Contention, The Oscar Guy, Film Experience and Awards Circuit. We'll add Gurus of Gold (when it's gets serious0 The Envelope (LA Times...also, when it gets serious) and Rope of Silicon. Perhaps Hollywood Elsewhere as the season progresses toward Mar. 7

TFF #36 in CAPS and BOLD

Best Picture: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Nine, 3) Hurt Locker, 4) Precious, 5) Invictus, 6) AN EDUCATION, 7) The Lovely Bones, 8) Up, 9) A Serious Man, 10) Avatar...also, 11) Inglorious Basterds, 12) The Tree of Life***13) THE LAST STATION, 14) BRIGHT STAR, 15) Julie and Julia. Dropping Out: A Single Man and Amelia.

Notes: Serious Man makes a move back up the chart as does The Last Station, Bright Star and Inglorious Basterds. Actually, Basterds made a significant move. Amelia's free fall continues. AND ***Tree of Life has been pushed t 2010...maybe it will be at TFF #37.

Best Director: 1) JASON REITMAN/UITA, 2) Kathryn Bigelow/Hurt Locker, 3) Lee Daniels/Precious, 4) Rob Marshall/Nine, 5) Clint Eastwood/Invictus. Also: 6) Peter Jackson?Lovely Bones, 7) LONE SCHERFIG/EDUCATION, 8) Quentin Tarantino/Basterds, 9) Coen Bros./Serious Man, 10) Terrence Malick/Tree***(see previous note)...(next is MICHAEL HOFFMAN/LAST STATION). Dropping Out: None

Notes: Tarantino is the only big mover...Malick, again, is moving to 2010.

Best Actor: 1) Morgan Freeman/Invctus, 2) Colin Firth/Single Man, 3) GEORGE CLOONEY/UP IN THE AIR, 4) Daniel Day-Lewis/Nine, 5) Jeremy Renner/Hurt Locker. Also, 6) Robert DeNiro/Everybody's Fine, 7) Hal Holbrook/Evening Sun, 8) VIGGO MORTENSEN/THE ROAD, 9) Johnny Depp/Public Enemies, 10) Matt Damon/The Informant! Dropping Out: None

Notes: Colin Firth's assault continues. It's a surprise to me that the film hasn't gotten more play for Best Picture with the heat from his performance and Julianne Moore's (see below). Mortensen and Depp actually bump up a little and Matt Damon continues to fall substantially.

Best Actress: 1) CAREY MULLIGAN/AN EDUCATION, 2) Meryl Streep/Julie & Julia, 3) Gabrielle Sidibe, 4) HELEN MIRREN/THE LAST STATION, 5) Saroise Ronan/Lovely Bones. Also: 6) Marion Cotillard/Nine***, 7) ABBIE CORNISH/BRIGHT STAR, 8) Michelle Monaghan/Trucker, 9) Hilary Swank/Amelia, 10) Michelle Pfeiffer and Annette Bening. Dropping Out: Penelope Cruz/Broken Embraces

Notes: Helen Mirren continues to be hot and Hilary Swank's Amelia continues its dive. We include Marion Cotillard's performance from Nine in the lead category, although she has votes in both lead and supporting for the same role. We think this is her most likely category placement.

Best Supporting actor: 1) Christoph Waltz/Inglorious Basterds, 2) Stanley Tucci/Lovely Bones, 3) Matt Damon/Invictus, 4) ALFRED MOLINA/AN EDUCATION, 5) CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER/THE LAST STATION. Also: 6) PETER SAARSGARD/AN EDUCATION, 7) Anthony Mackie/Hurt Locker, 8) JAMES MC AVOY/THE LAST STATION, 9) Stanley Tucci/Julie and Julia, 10) 4 guys tied here. Dropping Out: Richard Kind & ROBERT DUVALL.

Notes: Mackey continues to gain ground and Stanley Tucci is to be red hot as he appears on the list in 2 places (although I suspect he'll get the nomination for Lovely Bones). Duvall drops out...too bad, it's a really fine performance. And James McAvoy is getting split votes in lead and supporting. We suspect he'll end up campaigning as a supporting candidate.

Best Supporting Actress: 1) Mo'Nique/Precious, 2) Julianne Moore/Single Man, 3) Penelope Cruz/Nine, 4) ANNA KENDRICK/UP IN THE AIR, 5) VERA FARMIGA/UP IN THE AIR***. Also: 6) Judy Dench/Nine, 7) Susan Sarandon/Lovely Bones, 8) Rachel Weisz/Lovely Bones, 9) Marion Cotillard/Public Enemies, 10) Melanie Laurent/Inglorius Basterds. Dropping Out; Nicole Kidman and Catherine Keener.

Notes: ***Farmiga makes a move, partly because she also is getting attention in the lead category for this role. We suspect she'll end up in supporting as the season progresses. The first time both UITA ladies move into the "nomination" category. Julianne Moore's rise continues to be meteoric. Laurent returns to the bottom of the list as a part of the overall Inglorious Basterds boomlet over the past couple of weeks.

Best Adapted Screenplay: 1) UP IN THE AIR, 2) Precious, 3) Lovely Bones, 4) AN EDUCATION, 5) Invictus. Also: 6) Nine, 7) THE LAST STATION, 8) A Single Man, 9) Julie & Julia, 10) THE ROAD.

Best Original Screenplay: 1) Up, 2) A Serious Man, 3) The Hurt locker, 4) 500 Days (of Summer), 5) BRIGHT STAR. Also: 6) Inglorious Basterds, 7) THE WHITE RIBBON, 8) District Nine, 9) In the Loop, 10) Tree of Life*** (see above).

Notes: Thanks to Awards Circuit and Film experience, we can expand the screenplay list past 8 possibles...barely.

TFF #36 films account for 13 "Big 8" nominations...up one from the last post and 10 "lurking"up 4 from the last post.

Breakdown: "Nominations": UP IN THE AIR-6, Precious & Invictus-5, AN EDUCATION, Nine, Lovely Bones and Hurt Locker-4.

Combined Noms and Lurks: Nine & The Lovely Bones-7, UP IN THE AIR & AN EDUCATION-6, Hurt Locker, Precious, Invictus, Inglorious Basterds and THE LAST STATION-5. Julie & Julia-4. Serious Man, Single man and BRIGHT STAR-3.

Final Thoughts: I just have a feeling that Lovely Bones (can you say "King Kong"?) and Invictus (can you say "Changeling"?) are going to fade. I think Nine is a solid contender.