MTFB Oscar Take: Where We're At / Looks at Jay Kelly

 MTFB OSCAR TAKE: WHERE WE'RE AT

I'm through the second wave of predictions for the 2026 Oscars and the eight " Above the Line" categories.  I'll start expanding the predictions with Thursday's post to eventually include all 24 categories (up from 23 as The Academy has added Best Casting as a new Oscar category for this year).

But before I go into the expanded set of predictions, here's a reminder of where MTFB has nominees predicted currently.  These predictions were posted between Nov. 3rd and Nov. 13th. TFF #52 films/performers are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) One Battle After Another (1)

2) Hamnet (2)

3) Sinners (3)

4) Sentimental Value (4)

5) Marty Supreme (5)

6) Wicked: For Good (9)

7) It Was Just an Accident (8)

8) Jay Kelly (6)

9) Frankenstein (NR)

10) Bugonia (NR)

Others: Train Dreams, Avatar: Fire and Ice, The Secret Agent and A House of Dynamite.

Comment: Big moves up for Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein and Bugonia. Dropping for Jay Kelly and A House of Dynamite.  

BEST DIRECTION

1) Paul Thomas Anderson/OBAA (1)

2) Chloe Zhao/Hamnet (2)

3) Ryan Coogler/Sinners (3)

4) Joachim Trier/Sentimental Value (4)

5) Jafar Panahi/It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: Josh Safdie/Marty Supreme, Noah Baumbach/Jay Kelly and Guillermo del Toro/Frankenstein.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Hamnet (1)

2) Rene Reinsve/Sentimental Value (2)

3) Cynthia Enviro/Wicked: For Good (3)

4) Emma Stone/Bugonia (4)

5) Amanda Seyfried/The Testament of Ann Lee (NR)

Others: Kate Hudson/Song Sung Blue, Sidney Sweeney/Christy and Rose Byrne/If I Had Legs I'd Kick You.

1) Timothee Chalamet/Marty Supreme (2)

2) Leonardo Di Caprio/OBAA (1)

3) Walter Moura/The Secret Agent (3)

4) Ethan Hawke (NR)

5) Michael B. Jordan/Sinners (5)

Others: George Clooney/Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton (Train Dreams), Jeremy Allen White (Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

SUPPRORTING ACTRESS

1) Teyana Taylor/One Battle After Another (1)

2) Ariana Grande/Wicked: For Good (2)

3) Elle Fanning/Sentimental Value (4)

4) Amy Madigan/Weapons (3)

5) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas/Sentimental Value (5)

Others: Regina Hall/One Battle After Another, Gwyneth Paltrow/Marty Supreme and Hailee Steinfeld/Sinners.

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Stellan Skarsgard/Sentimental Value (1)

2) Sean Penn/One Battle After Another (2)

3) Paul Mescal/Hamnet (3)

4) Adam Sandler/Jay Kelly (4)

5) Benicio del Toro/One Battle After Another (5)

Others: Jacob Elordi/Frankenstein, DelRoy Lindo/Sinners and Jeremy Strong/Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere.

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Sinners (1)

2) Sentimental Value (2)

3) Marty Supreme (3)

4) Jay Kelly (4)

5) It Was Just an Accident (5)

Others: A House of Dynamite, Weapon and Blue Moon.

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Hamnet (2)

2) One Battle After Another (1)

3) Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery (3)

4) Bugonia (4)

5) Train Dreams (5)

Others: Frankenstein, No Other Choice and Wicked: For Good.

COMMENT: Sentimental Value is predicted to earn seven nominations in these eight categories to lead the way.  Here's the breakdown of the 10 films MTFB has with possible Oscar nominations in the Big Eight categories:

Sentimental Value (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Reinsve), Supporting Actress (Fanning), Supporting Actress (Ibsdotter Lilleaas), Supporting Actor (Skarsgard), Original Screenplay.

Hamnet (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actor (Mescal), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Sandler), Original Screenplay.

Bugonia (3): Best Picture, Actress (Stone) and Adapted Screenplay.

It Was Just an Accident (2): Best Picture, Original Screenplay.

The Secret Agent (1): Best Actor (Moura).

Blue Moon (1): Best Actor (Hawke).

Other "possible" nominations:

Frankenstein: Best Direction, Supporting Actor (Elordi), Adapted Screenplay.

Jay Kelly: Best Direction, Actor (Clooney).

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere: Best Actor (White), Supporting Actor (Strong).

The Secret Agent: Best Picture.

If I Had Legs I's Kick You: Best Actress (Byrne).

Blue Moon: Best Original Screenplay.

Total MTFB predicted nominations from these eight categories for Telluride films: 22

Other "possible" nominations: 10.

LOOKS AT JAY KELLY

With its release coming in less than a month (Dec. 5th),  the P.R. is ramping up for Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly starring George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern.  Here's a taste of some of the promo that's in the air for the film.

Behind the Scenes with Clooney, Sandler and Baumbach from Netflix via YouTube.

Laura Dern and Adam Sandler with Awards Watch via YouTube.

 

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Final Look at Oscar Experts Best Picture Predictions: Screen Rant / Best Picture Scoreboard / Interviews from The New York Film Festival (Jay Kelly and Sentimental Value) / Final Trailer for Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

 FINAL LOOK AT OSCAR EXPERTS BEST PICTURE PREDICTIONS: SCREEN RANT

 Here's a last look at what Oscar Experts are predicting for Best Picture,  These come from Screen Rant and were updated last Friday (TFF films are in Bold):

1) Hamnet

2) One Battle After Another

3) Sinners

4) Sentimental Value

5) Marty Supreme

6) A House of Dynamite

7) Wicked: For Good

8) The Secret Agent

9) Avatar: Fire and Ask

10) Jay Kelly

So Screen Rant has four TFF #52 films in the final ten for Best Picture which would tie for the record number of Telluride films nominated for BP in a single.

Stay tuned for my first jump into the prediction pool on Monday with my takes on Best Picture and Direction.

Here's the link to the Screen Rant prediction page.

BEST PICTURE SCORECARD

Let's update our chart of the all of the BP predictions we have gathered so far.  To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW),  Awards Radar (AR), Next Best Picture (NBP), The Contending (TC) and Screen Rant (SC),  here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions:

Hamnet (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Sentimental Value (8): GD, THR, V, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Jay Kelly (7): GD, THR, AW, AR, NBP, TC, SR

Bugonia (5): GD, THR, V, AR, TC

It Was Just Accident (5): GD, THR, AW, NBP, TC

The Secret Agent (4): THR, V, NBP, SR

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

INTERVIEWS FROM THE NEW YORK FILM FESTIVAL

From YouTube:

Noah Baumbach, George Clooney, Adam Sandler and Laura Dern for Jay Kelly.

Joachim Trier and Noah Baumbach for Sentimental Value and Jay Kelly.

FINAL TRAILER FOR SPRINGSTEEN: DELIVER ME FROM NOWHERE

Just ahead of its Oct. 24th release comes the final trailer for Scott Cooper's Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere. Here it is from You Tube:

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Checking the Oscar Experts: Awards Radar / New Trailer for Del Toro's Frankenstein / Visitations: Clooney, Sandler and Hawke and More

CHECKING THE OSCAR EXPERTS: AWARDS RADAR

As the New York Film Festival passes its halfway point, we continue our series of check-ins of a variety of Oscar prognosticators on the Best Picture race with Joey Magidson of Awards Radar .  Magidson just updated his predictions last Wednesday.  Here's what he currently will be Best Picture nominated (TFF #52 films are Bold):

1) One Battle After Another

2) Hamnet

3) Sentimental Value

4) A House of Dynamite

5) Sinners

6) Jay Kelly

7) Bugonia

8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

9) Wicked: For Good

10) Avatar: Fire and Ash

So Magidson is currently predicting five TFF #52 films to pick up BP nominations which would be the most TFF BP noms in a single year.

Other TFF #52 films that are within striking distance per Magidson:

11) It Was Just an Accident

18) Frankenstein

19) Blue Moon

BEST PICTURE SCOREBOARD

To this point with input from Gold Derby (GD), The Hollywood Reporter (THR), Variety (V),  Awards Watch (AW) and Awards Radar (AR) here's where TFF #52 films stand for BP predictions.

Hamnet (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Sentimental Value (5): GD, THR, V, AW, AR

Jay Kelly (4): GD, THR, AW, AR

Bugonia (4): GD, THR, V, AR

It Was Just Accident (3): GD, THR, AW

The Secret Agent (2): THR, V

Frankenstein (2): V, AW

Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere (2): AW, AR

NEW TRAILER FOR DEL TORO'S FRANKENSTEIN

From YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Jay Kelly Q+A from the New York Film Festival with Clooney, Sandler, Dern, Baumbach and More

Ethan Hawke and Richard Linklater for Blue Moon from The Making Of

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value from Pop Culture Confidential

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New Baumbach Film Has a Date / Awards Watch's First Oscar Picks

NEW BAUMBACH FILM HAS A DATE

Noah Baumbach's latest film, Jay Kelly, has been dated for theatrical release by Netflix.  The film will be released into theaters on Nov. 14th.  Netflex will start streaming it on Dec. 5th. The film stars George Clooney and Adam Sandler. 

Several outlets reported on the announcement earlier this week with a couple making some noise about a possible play at Telluride.  Gregory Ellwood writing for The Playlist commented in his story that:

"It’s possible Netflix could hold “Kelly” to the New York Film Festival, but Clooney’s participation makes a Venice Film Festival bow much more likely. In theory, that means Telluride and TIFF screenings are up for discussion. Whatever the case, the streamer’s release strategy makes it clear they believe it’s a prime awards season contender."

Ellwood's complete story is here.

Additionally, Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel echoed the Telluride possibility writing:

“Jay Kelly” could very well have its world premiere at the Venice Film Festival in September. It will certainly be hitting the fall fests, and that could include Toronto, Telluride and New York."

Ruimy's post is linked here.

The Telluride pedigree is impressive.  Baumbach has had a presence at Telluride having screened Margot at the Wedding (2007), Frances Ha (2012) and Marriage Story (2019) at TFF.

Clooney was in town in 2011 with Alexander Payne's The Descendants.  Sandler was in T-ride in 2019 with the Safdie Brothers' Uncut Gems.  And a couple of members of the supporting cast have had a presence at TFF including Laura Dern (Marriage Story, Trial by Fire and Wild) and Greta Gerwig (Frances Ha and Lady Bird).

Finally, it's Netflix project and they have been well represented at the fest since 2015.

AWARDS WATCH'S FIRST OSCAR PICKS

Erik Anderson who runs Awards Watch has had his first set of predictions for 2025 going up this week.  He's got four categories up so far: Picture, Direction, Actress and Actor.  There are a couple of reasons to look at what Erik has to say.  First, as with other early Oscar picks highlighted here on the blog, I'll run through his picks and post a list below of possible TFF #52 titles.  Secondly, Erik makes a couple of interesting observations about Telluride in his Best actress/Actor predictions.

First, possible TFF #52 films from Erik's Best Picture predictions (in his order of mention):

Bugonia/Lanthimos (Focus)

Jay Kelly/Baumbach (Netflix)

Marty Supreme/J. Safdie (A24)

After the Hunt/Guadagnino (Amazon MGM)

Die, My Love/Ramsay (TBD)

Deliver Me from Nowhere/S. Cooper (20th Century)

The Ballad of a Small Player/Berger (Netflix)

Frankenstein/Del Toro (Netflix)

Hamnet/Zhzo (Focus)

Is This Thing On?/B. Cooper (Searchlight)

Pressure/Maras (Focus)

Anemone/Day-Lewis (Focus)

Eleanor the Great/Johansson (SPC)

The History of Sound/Hermanus (Mubi)

The Mastermind/Reichardt (Mubi)

Rental Family/Hikari (Searchlight)

You can find Erik's full list of Best Picture and Direction predictions here.

Meanwhile in his piece on Best Actress/Actor predictions he makes a couple of interesting statements.  The first relates to Rental Family and Is This Thing On?  From the post:

"I’m also keeping an eye on two Searchlight Pictures men, recent winner Brendan Fraser in Rental Family and Will Arnett in Is This Thing On?, the latter of which just recently wrapped production under Bradley Cooper’s direction. A Telluride or Toronto debut feels likely for one or both, if they’re ready for this year."

Later in the same piece, he writes this concerning Hamnet:

"The Focus Features adaptation of the Maggie O’Farrell fictional story of Agnes, the wife of William Shakespeare, as she struggles to come to terms with the loss of her only son, the titular Hamnet, will likely find its debut at Venice or Telluride (possibly screening at both) and setting the stage for her."

Interesting, eh?

Here's the link to the complete set of Best Actress/Actor predictions.

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Oscar Update: Best Actor / TFF #47 Films Score at Montclair / Concrete Cowboy Rides to Netflix / Odds and Ends: Chicago 7 and Midnight Sky

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST ACTOR

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Actor updated since I last posted this category on  Sept. 24th.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (1)

2) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

3) Gary Oldman/Mank (2)

4) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Tom Hanks/News of the World (3)

6) Riz Ahmed/The Sound of Metal (-)

7) Steven Yeun/Minari (-)

8) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (8)

9) Joaquin Phoenix/C'mon C'mon (7)

10) Colin Firth/Supernova (-)

Others: Bill Murray/On the Rocks, Daniel Kaluuya or LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah.

TFF #47 FILMS SCORE AT MONTCLAIR

Chloe Zhao'e Nomadland and Mohammad Rasoulof's  There Is No Evil were awarded major prizes at the conclusion of the Montclair Film Festival.  The winners were announced Mnday at the conclusion of the ninth annual event.

Nomadland was named winner of the audience award for a fiction feature and There Is No Evil won the jury award for non-fiction feature.

Complete coverage of all of the winners from the Montclair fest can be found linked here from Variety.

CONCRETE COWBOY RIDES TO NETFLIX

Ricky Staub's Concrete Cowboy, a selection of the "would have been" 47th Telluride Film Festival, has been acquired by Netflix.  Concrete Cowboy stars Idris Elba and was screened as a part of the Toronto International Film Festival.

Variety reports that the film will be released by Netflix at some point in 2021.

The IMDb description of the film is as follows:

"A teenager discovers the world of urban horseback riding when he moves in with his estranged father in North Philadelphia."

The Variety story about the acquisition is linked here.

ODDS AND ENDS

Here are a few other tidbits that I found interesting...

1)The Hollywood Reporter reports that the entire cast of Aaron Sorkin's The Trial of the Chicago 7 will be campaigned as Supporting Actors:  The link to the THR story is here.

For my money look at Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Jeremy Strong, Mark Rylance and Frank Langella.

2) ShowBiz 411 reports that MGM has re-dated Leisl Tommy's Respect, which stars Jennifer Hudson as Aretha Franklin, for August 13, 2021 which means two things.  First, the move bumps the film and Hudson out of this year's Oscar race and second...the August date guarantees that the film will NOT be a part of a TFF #48 (if that's what it's referenced as) lineup.  I had Hudson at #3 in the Best Actress predictions in last Monday's post.

Here's the ShowBiz 411 story.

3) Trailer drops for George Clooney's Midnight Sky from Netflix.  Here it is via YouTube:

The film is scheduled for release on Netflix on Dec. 23rd.

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Downsizing and Suburbicon at CinemaCon / Cannes #70 Poster Features Claudia / Will Hazanavicius Return? / And from the Hopes and Dreams Dept.

Good Thursday to you.  Here's some film stuff that may or may not have anything to do with TFF #44:


DOWNSIZING AND SUBURBICON AT CINEMACON:  REACTIONS AND RELEASE DATES

George Clooney and Matt Damon at CinemaCon this week (via The Hollywood Reporter)

Both Alexander Payne's Downsizing and George Clooney's Suburbicon have been well received after the Paramount presentation at CinemaCon in Las Vegas this week.

Check here for the reactions coming out of Vegas for these two films which both feature Matt Damon and which could both find the Telluride program in September.

Suburbicon will be released Nov. 3rd.  Downsizing will be released Dec. 22nd.

Variety

The Hollywood Reporter


Here are reactions to the footage of both films that was screened at CinemaCon:

The Hollywood Reporter

The Playlist

The Wrap

Indiewire

CANNES #70 POSTER FEATURES CLAUDIA CARDINALE

There it is.  The official poster for the 2017 edition of the Cannes Film Festival.  The poster features Cannes favorite Claudia Cardinale.  Telluride fans may remember that Cardinale was a tribute recipient in T-ride in 2010.

Here's coverage of the poster selection and reveal from The Film Stage.

Cardinale in Telluride in 2010 (via Getty Images)

WILL HAZANAVICIUS RETURN?

Louis Garrel as Jean-Luc Godard in Redoubtable

His last film, The Search, played Cannes and was drubbed critically and resulted in a rather quiet disappearance and certainly no berth at Telluride but his latest, Redoubtable, which focuses on a real life love story from the life of film pioneer Jean Luc-Goddard has been getting significant pre-Cannes buzz.

Just this last couple of days, we began seeing stories focusing on the film, including some pics (see above).  That indicates to me that Redoubtable is a likely Cannes selection.  We'll find out, in all likelihood, on April 13th when the bulk of the Cannes lineup is announced.


Check out the french teaser  and other details here from Indiwire and here from The Playlist.


AND FROM THE HOPES AND DREAMS DEPT.

PTA via The Film Stage

Here's the latest...Paul Thomas Anderson's new film set in the world of high fashion and starring Daniel Day Lewis has been dated for release on Dec. 25th.  The Film Stage reports that its working title is Phantom Thread.

Insert obligatory note here about its unlikelihood for Telluride (for a number of reasons) as well as the expected wish that it would magically screen there.

Here's the story from The Film Stage.


That's a wrap for this Thursday.  Have a good weekend and come back for more on Monday.


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COMMENT to the Blog

Coming Attractions: Farhadi and Haneke / A Look at The Coen Brothers / Bill Plympton Talks Animation

Good Monday everyone from the Big Apple.  The adventure comes to a close tomorrow as we head back to the real world.  It has been a great and wondrous trip to NYC with many, many memories. I'll be sad to climb onto the plane tomorrow afternoon but also ready to get back home.  Between Art Show and NYC, it's been awhile since I've been on the homestead.


Today on MTFB; Coming Attractions-two films that are announced and likely to be made that stand a better than even chance at a future Telluride play as well as a look at some people who have recently been a part of the scene at various Telluride Film Fests.  First, a new mini-documentary of 2013 TFF tribute recipients Joel and Ethan Coen and then an interview with frequent TFF participant, the wonderful animator, Bill Plympton.

COMING ATTRACTIONS

Asghar Farhadi (via Indiewire) and Michael Haneke (via Salon.com)

In the post-Cannes afterglow, a couple of projects from auteurs who are frequent players at both Cannes and Telluride were reported recently as having forward momentum.  I'll be keeping an eye on both projects going forward as they stand very good chances at playing Cannes and T-ride.

Asghar Farhadi, fresh off of seeing his The Salesman win both a screen writing and best actor award at Cannes (which underscored that film's presence in the TFF #43 lineup conversation) is headed to Spain to shoot his next film which will probably star Penelope Cruz and Javier Bardem.  Yes, it almost screams Telluride.

Check the report from Variety here:

http://variety.com/2016/film/news/penelope-cruz-javier-bardem-asghar-farhadi-movie-1201782734/


And another Cannes/Telluride regular Michael Haneke's Happy End looks posed to start filming per Isabelle Huppert.  The Guardian talked to her recently and, among many topics, talks about the new film:

https://www.theguardian.com/film/2016/may/22/isabelle-huppert-woody-allen-noah-baumbach-interview-phaedra-elle

A LOOK AT THE COEN BROTHERS

The Brothers Coen at TFF in 2013

This appeared from The Film Stage over the weekend.  It's from Viceland, a 43 min. retrospective about the Brothers Coen including interviews with T-ride Tributee George Clooney and Jeff Bridges. Take a look at the post and the mini-doc here:

https://thefilmstage.com/news/watch-the-coens-closest-collaborators-walk-through-their-career-in-new-documentary/


BILL PLYMPTON TALKS ANIMATION

Bill Plympton (The Huffington Post)

Additionally, Indiewire recently talked to master animator/director and sometime TFF participant Bill Plympton here:


http://www.indiewire.com/2016/06/bill-plympton-pixar-anomalisa-hilters-folly-1201684474/


That's a wrap for Monday.

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via Twitter @Gort2 

The FAC Supporting and Screenplays October Update / Oscar Matters: Podcasts and Predictions / Todd Haynes on "Carol" and More / Future Telluride?: Coens and Clooney

Welcome back fro the weekend fellow wanderers...


THE FILM AWARDS CLEARINGHOUSE SUPPORTING AND SCREENPLAYS OCTOBER UPDATE

Our first run through for these categories was three and a half weeks ago (Oct. 1) and as you might expect, some things have changed over that time.  Here's our latest snapshot of Best Supporting Actress and Actor and Adapted and Original Screenplays.

For the purpose of The FAC I gather data from the publicly posted predictions of the following:

Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
Clayton Davis/Awards Circuit
Scott Feinberg/The Hollywood Reporter
Peter Knegt/Indiewire
Joey Magidson/Hollywood News
Nathaniel Rogers/Film Experience
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Kristopher Tapley/Variety-InContention
Anne Thompson/Thompson on Hollywood

TFF #42 films are in Bold.

The positions that these possible nominees had in our last look at these categories is indicated in parenthesis.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Alicia Vikander/The Danish Girl (4)
2) Rooney Mara/Carol (2)
3) Kate Winslet/Steve Jobs (1)
4) Jennifer Jason Leigh/The Hateful Eight (3)
5) Jane Fonda/Youth

6) Rachel McAdams/Spotlight (5)
7) Elizabeth Banks/Love and Mercy (6)
8) Joan Allen/Room (9)
9) Julie Walters/Brooklyn (10)
10) Kristen Stewart/Clouds of Sils Maria (8)

Hot: Vikander and Fonda
Cold: Winslet and Stewart

Comment:

The news that Alicia Vikander will be campaigned for Supporting Actress for "The Danish Girl" really boosted her profile in the last three weeks.  Also. it will be very interesting to see how the box office bad news from this past weekend for Danny Boyle's "Steve Jobs" will affect Winslet, Fassbender, Sorkin and the rest of the "Steve Jobs" Oscar prospects.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Michael Keaton/Spotlight (1)
2) Tom Hardy/The Revenant (3)
3) Mark Ruffalo/Spotlight (2)
4) Mark Rylance/Bridge of Spies (5)
5) Idris Elba/Beasts of No Nation (4)

6) Jacob Tremblay/Room (NR)
7) Paul Dano/Love and Mercy (7)
8) Benicio Del Toro/Sicario (6)
9) Joel Edgerton/Black Mass (8)
10) Harvey Keitel/Youth (9)

Hot: Tremblay
Cold: Del Toro and Samuel L. Jackson who dropped way out of the top ten.
Commnet: The last three weeks has seen a strong surge of belief that young Jacob Tremblay is a very serious candidate for an Oscar nomination.  I am still stumping for Jeff Daniels in "Steve Jobs" and Peter Sarsgaard in "Black Mass".


BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Steve Jobs (1)
2) Brooklyn (5)
3) Room (3)
4) The Revenant (4)
5) Carol (2)

6) The Martian (6)
7) Anomalisa (NR)
8) The Danish Girl (7)
9) The Big Short (10)
10) Beasts of No Nation (8)


Hot: "Brooklyn" and "Anomalisa".
Cold: "Carol", "Beasts of No Nation" and "45 Years".
Comment:  "Anomalisa" jumps onto the chart in a big way and might well be in the top five save for some still on-going confusion among some of the Oscar prognosticators about whether it's an Adapted or Original screenplay.  Also, "The Martian", "Carol" and "The Revenant" are very tightly bunched at the 4-5-6 spots.

As I said above concerning the Best Supporting Actress race, it'll be interesting to see if Aaron Sorkin's "Steve Jobs" screenplay will lose any steam the next time we check this category because of that film's dismal box office this past weekend.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Spotlight (1)
2) Inside Out (2)
3) Joy (4)
4) The Hateful Eight (3)
5) Bridge of Spies (5)

6) Youth (6)
7) Sicario (7)
8) Son of Saul (10)
9) Love and Mercy (9)
10) Suffragette (NR)

Hot: "Son of Saul" and "Suffragette".
Cold: "Ex Machina".
Comment: The top five are substantially ahead of the other scripts in this category.


Overall, if these predictions were 100% accurate, Telluride #42 films would see a total of  nine nominations in these categories with another eight possibilities.  Added to last Thursday's update of four categories (Picture, Director, Actress and Actor) the T-ride 2015 totals for these eight major categories would be 19 nominations and 11 other possibilities.


OSCAR MATTERS

PODCASTS:

Here are links to awards season podcasts from Awards Watch, The Hollywood Reporter and Screentalk:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d2PBurUmckg&feature=youtu.be&a

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/awards-pundits-chris-rock-hosting-834143

http://www.indiewire.com/article/podcast-whos-losing-steam-in-oscar-season-20151023


AND PREDICTIONS:


And here's the link to Sasha Stone's weekly (Friday) update of her Oscar predictions from Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2015/10/23/predictions-friday-folding-sag-ensemble-and-best-picture/


TODD HAYNES ON "CAROL" AND MORE

Todd Haynes "Carol" continues to be a central part of the awards season discussion and so I have included this link to Rodrigo Perez's profile of the writer/director based on Haynes' appearance at the New York Film Festival.  That post is linked here from The Playlist:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/nyff-todd-haynes-talks-carol-exploring-desire-identity-giving-himself-creative-assignments-much-more-20151011


FUTURE TELLURIDE:  COENS AND CLOONEY

George Clooney on the set of the Coen Brothers' "Hail Caesar"

We got word over the weekend that past Telluride participants George Clooney and The Coen Brothers ("The Descendants" for Clooney, "Inside Llewyn Davis" for The Coens) are planning to collaborate again but in a slightly different set of circumstances.

Clooney, who has an extensive history with the Coens ("O Brother, where Art Thou", "Intolerable Cruelty" and "Burn After Reading") and is starring in the upcoming "Hail Caesar" (set for release in early February) will apparently direct a Coens script that's been in development for more than a decade.  The film is currently titled "Suburbicon".

The SlashFilm report makes it sound as if the film could well begin shooting as early as next year.  Bring it to TFF #43 or 44, I say.

 Check that story from here:

http://www.slashfilm.com/new-george-clooney-coen-brothers-collaboration-coming/



That's all for Monday.  There'll be more on Thursday....


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RIP James Horner/"Our Brand" Could Be Our Brand/Not Really Thinking This Could Happen...But.../First "Ten Bets" Coming Friday

Welcome to Tuesday...


RIP JAMES HORNER

Bad news yesterday as we learned that Oscar winning composer James Horner ("Titanic", "Apollo 13") was killed in an airplane crash in California.  Horner's latest score is for the Jake Gyllenhaal film "Southpaw".  Horner won two Oscars for score and song for "Titanic" in 1998.  He was also nominated for an additional eight Oscars.  His talent will be sorely missed.


Horner's IMDb page is here:

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0000035/?ref_=nv_sr_1#composer



OUR BRAND MIGHT BE "OUR BRAND"

Jeff Wells at Hollywood Elsewhere reported yesterday that David Gordon Green's "Our Brand is Crisis" is in screen testing mode in L.A.  Wells concludes that this means that an awards season release date is likely.  He says October/November.

My feeling for a number of months is that its distributor, Warner Brothers, is likely to at least make the attempt to screen one or two of four films at Telluride.  In addition to "Our Brand" (which I think might be a realistic choice), WB has Ron Howard's  "In the Heart of the Sea", Jeff Nichols' "Midnight Special" and Scott Cooper's "Black Mass".

Also, playing into my "Our Brand" could be a T-ride pick, is the fact that it's produced by Grant Heslov and George Clooney (check out my "Unified Clooney Theory" post later this summer).

Here's the link to the Wells' post from yesterday:

http://www.hollywood-elsewhere.com/2015/06/simmer-softly-hurry/


NOT REALLY THINKING THIS COULD HAPPEN...BUT...

They've been called the Three Amigos...Mexican film makers and friends Alejandro Inarritu, Alfonso Cuaron and Guillermo Del Toro.  Innaritu has become a veritable fixture at Telluride and Cuaron made the journey (and very successfully) in 2013 with the multiple Oscar winning "Gravity" but their amigo Del Toro hasn't made the trip to the San Juans.

We know that Cuaron won't this year as he is presiding over the Venice jury.  Inarritu may or more likely may not be ready to screen his latest "The Revenant" but Del Toro's Gothic horror "Crimson Peak" should be ready as it has an October 16 release date.

Could this be the year that the third amigo makes a trek to Telluride?  Admittedly the chances are small.  Universal is distributing and to the best of my research ability, they haven't had a film at Telluride since 2008's "Flash of Genius".

But... don't completely rule it out as I imagine Alejandro and Alfonso have both talked up the T-ride experience.

Add to this blurb the release of character posters over the weekend for the film covered here by The Playlist:


Also "Crimson Peak's" IMDb page:

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt2554274/?ref_=fn_al_tt_1


And ultimately add that I want Jessica Chastain in Telluride...


DON'T FORGET, 2015'S FIRST "TEN BETS" FOR TFF #42 IS COMING ON FRIDAY!!!


More on Wednesday...



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Cannes Announcement Looms/Smokehouse Adds to Its Stack

Good Monday to All...


CANNES ANNOUNCEMENT LOOMS

We're just days away from the official announcement of films that will play at the Cannes film Festival-Apr. 16th is the day, and I thought I'd go back and re-post a number of the links to the Cannes speculation/prediction pieces that I have stumbled across over the last couple of months.  Included here are pieces from Variety, Screen Daily, The Hollywood Reporter, Hollywood News and The Playlist:


http://variety.com/2015/film/news/cannes-film-festival-whats-in-and-whats-out-1201460030/

http://www.screendaily.com/festivals/cannes/and-the-cannes-line-up-is/5085749.article


http://www.hollywoodnews.com/2015/03/19/which-films-could-play-this-year-at-the-cannes-film-festival/

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/20-films-we-hope-to-see-at-the-2015-cannes-film-festival-20150316

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/the-20-most-anticipated-foreign-films-of-2015-20150114

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/cannes-todd-mccarthy-possibilities-probabilities-779894

We know that The Coen Brothers will co-preside the Palme d'Or jury and that Isabella Rosselini (whose mother's visage is featured on the Cannes official poster for this year) will chair the Un Certain Regard jury.  Lots of questions to be answered Thursday.

SMOKEHOUSE ADDS TO ITS STACK

George Clooney's production shingle, Smokehouse Pictures, has added a new film project to its list of titles.  The company has grabbed the film rights to the story of FBI body language expert Joe Navarro.  The book, and presumable film title is "Three Minutes to Doomsday".  

The acquisition is noticeable as Smokehouse was part of the production group behind Ben Affleck's 2012 Best Picture winner "Argo" which was a sneak preview at T-ride's 2012 soiree.  Smokehouse also has its share of two possible 2015 Telluride possibles:  David Gordon Green's "Our Brand is Crisis" and Jodie Foster's "Money Monster".

More on Thursday...

The Good Lie Comes to Life/Coens and More Semi-Coens News/Late News: Goodbye Eli Wallach

Good Wednesday Everyone...

The Mrs. and I head east today...for a long, long art extravaganza.  We'll be in Grand Haven, MI. for their Art Fest this weekend and then in Great Barrington, MA. on the July 4th weekend for The Berkshires Art Festival.  If you're Telluride Film Fans and are in the area...come by and see us at The Flying Shoes Studio Booth at either festival.  Say "Hi!"...buy some of Kristy's art.  It's good stuff.  Here's a reminder:

THE GOOD LIE COMES TO LIFE

"The Good Lie" trailer from joblo.com via YouTube

Last year, toward the end of summer, we got word that Reese Witherspoon's "The Good Lie" was in the can.  There was some fleeting speculation that it might be a possible Telluride film, but that was clearly never in the cards.  Now, in the last 24 hours, we've seen the release of a trailer along with some discussion of Witherspoon's Oscar prospects from the film.

The film is described (via IMDb) as a story in which:

"A Sudanese refugee is taken in by a straight-talking American woman in their new home in the United States."



Is it a likely play at T-ride.  Probably not, but you can't rule it out completely either.  It's release date was recently moved from a non-Telluride friendly Sept. 10th to a much more T-ride friendly (and award friendly and Venice and Toronto friendly) Oct. 3.  Additionally, it's under the Warner Brothers banner and they've tun a couple of pretty good years in a row at Telluride with "Argo", "Gravity" and "Prisoners".  Frankly, Witherspoon's other big film for this fall, "Wild" (from Fox Searchlight) might be the likelier Telluride play.

I have linked to a couple of posts about the film and the trailer release here:

Variety:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/reese-witherspoon-the-good-lie-trailer-1201239103/

IndieWire:

http://www.indiewire.com/article/watch-keep-your-eye-on-oscar-contenders-beginning-with-trailer-for-the-good-lie-starring-reese-witherspoon-20140624

Thompson on Hollywood:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/thompsononhollywood/reese-witherspoon-looks-towards-oscar-gold-with-wild-the-good-lie-trailer


COENS NEWS AND MORE SEMI-COENS NEWS

George Clooney in "O Brother, Where Art Thou" (from fineartamerica.com)

Lots of new and surprising casting news out yesterday for the Coen Brothers next enterprise' "Hail Caesar.  It had been previously announced that George Clooney and Josh Brolin would star in the film about a Hollywood "fixer".  Yesterday the interweb lit up with news of the casting of Channing Tatum, Tilda Swinton and Ralph Fiennes (who I finally caught in "The Grand Budapest Hotel" this past weekend and it lived up to lofty expectations).

I have linked three different stories about the casting:

Variety:

http://variety.com/2014/film/news/channing-tatum-in-talks-to-join-the-coens-hail-caesar-exclusive-1201245179/

The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/news/channing-tatum-tilda-swinton-ralph-714566?utm_expid=19303748-46.c16wOsTPSwa4UOZ_HM0mmw.0

Rope of Silicon:

http://www.ropeofsilicon.com/channing-tatum-ralph-fiennes-tilda-swinton-join-coens-hail-caesar/


Meanwhile, in other Coens-related news, The Playlist reported yesterday that frequent Coens Brothers cast member John Turturro reportedly wants to make a feature based on the character he played for the brothers in their classic "The Big Lebowski".  Turturro reportedly has a story in mind and would write, direct and star... if he can get the "go-ahead" from Joel and Ethan.  I'd go see that.

John Turturro as Jesus Quintana in "The Big Lebowski" (from getthebigpicture.net)

The Playlist story is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/john-turturro-wants-to-direct-jesus-centric-big-lebowski-spinoff-next-year-if-the-coens-give-him-permission-20140624

LATE NEWS: GOODBYE ELI WALLACH

Eli Wallach from spaghettiwesterns.com.ar

Eli Wallach, a terrific character actor who had a six decade career in film and on stage has died.  He was 98.  Wallach starred in innumerable films including: "The Magnificent Seven", "The Good, the Bad and the Ugly" and "The Misfits" among others.  His range was extraordinary.

His lengthy IMDb.com entry is here:

http://www.imdb.com/name/nm0908919/?ref_=fn_al_nm_1


More from the road tomorrow...

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