Variety's Early Oscar Picture / News from Cannes / Insight for Bucking Fastard

 VARIETY'S EARLY OSCAR PICTURE

MTFB continues to take a peek at early Best Picture Oscar prognostications for TFF #53 clues.  Today it's Clayton Davis from Variety.  From his March 19th article, here are my best guesses for what among them might make it to southwest Colorado  (with director, release date and distributor, if known.  *** indicates the director has had a previous TFF entry):

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Artificial/Guadagnino***/Amazon-MGM

Being Heumann/Heder/Apple TV

Bucking Fastard/Herzog***

Clarissa/Erisi/NEON

Digger/Inarritu***/Oct. 2nd/Warner Brothers

Here Comes the Flood/Meirelles***/Netflix

A Long Winter/Haigh***/MUBI

Musk/Gibney/Bleeker Street

Narnia: The Magician's Nephew/Gerwig***/Nov. 26th/Netflix

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Primetime/Oppenheim/A24

Saturn Return/Kwedar/Netflix

Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Project/Eisenberg***/Dec. 3rd/A24

Wild Horse Nine/McDonagh/Nov. 6th/Searchlight

Check out the entire Variety set of predictions here,

https://variety.com/lists/2027-oscars-predictions/documentary-feature-9/

NEWS FROM CANNES

We're keeping close tabs on what's what regarding possible films at Cannes that may then proceed across the Atlantic to T-ride.  Jordan Ruimy updated some of his speculation on Tuesday.

First a re-cap of what we've passed on here at MTFB:

Our last list from World of Reel based on Ruimy's earlier post re: Cannes:

Predicted Cannes Competition titles that might play TFF #53:

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar

Fjord/Mungiu

Jack of Spades/Coen

Minotaur/Zvyaginstev

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi

Parallel Tales/Farhadi

Coward/Dhont

1949/Pawlikowski

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda

Butterfly Jam/Bagalov

"Possibilities"

The Long Winter/Haigh

Let Love In/Van Groeningen

Bucking Fastard/Herzog

"French Contenders"

Moulin/Nemes

Among titles that Ruimy says are now "unlikely: for Cannes but that could still make a Telluride play:

Paper Tiger/Gray

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Untitled Mike Leigh Film

Digger/Inarritu

And the Screen Daily list we put up here on Monday:

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Paper Tiger/Gray***

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Coward/Dhont***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

And here's what Ruimy is saying as of Tuesday's post:

Pawlikowski's 1949 was OUT but now may be back IN...it's about whether post-production can be finished.  Ruimy's tone makes me think it's likely IN.

OUT: Coward and The Way of the Wind.

Probably IN: All of a Sudden and Minotaur.  Bitter Christmas looks likely too.

James Gray's Paper Tiger which was a possible no-show now seems to be a "Maybe":

Here's the latest from World of Reel.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/18/cannes

INSIGHT FOR BUCKING FASTARD

Kate Mara made an appearance on Late Nigh with Seth Meyers last week and the program posted part of that conversation on their X account focused on the upcoming Bucking Fastard directed by Werner Herzog.  The clip is kind of entertaining.  The discussion begins at the 5:41 mark:

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MTFB Oscar Take: Latest "Above the Line" Oscar Predictions / Film Independent Spirit Awards / Guild Awards: Art Directors and Editors / More Cannes Spec / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LATEST "ABOVE THE LINE" OSCAR PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) CODA

4) West Side Story

5) King Richard

6) Dune

7) Licorice Pizza

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

Comment: With its Best Cast SAG win CODA moved from #7 to #3.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

Comment: SAG win moves Chastain to the top.

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Troy Kotsur/CODA

2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

Comment: Kotsur's SAG win propels him past Smit-McPhee.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) The Worst Person in the World

5) King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

COW TRAILER

The header for this story is funny..."Cow Trailer".  Hahahahaha.  now then, Andrea Arnold's Cow has a trailer and here it is:

FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

The Film Independent Spirit Awards were handed out on Sunday.  Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter had an exceptional evening winning Best Feature, Director and Screenplay.  TFF #48 selection Red Rocket was also recognized for Best Actor with Simon Rex winning that award.  The complete listing of all Spirit Awards winners is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.

GUILD AWARDS: ART DIRECTORS, ACE: EDDIES

The Art Directors Guild named their winners for 2021 films this past weekend.  No TFF #48 films made their lists.  Film winners were Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Dune and Encanto.

Coverage from Variety.

The American Cinema Editors (ACE) named TFF #48 film King Richard edited by Pamela Martin as the Best edited dramatic feature film of 2021.  Other winners included: tick, tcik...BOOM, Summer of Soul and Encanto.

Coverage from Nest Best Picture.

MORE CANNES SPEC

What will be the 5-8 films that will debut at Cannes and then make their first  North American appearance at TFF #49?  Obviously we won't know until Thursday, Sept. 1st but that can't stop us from thinking and predicting and hoping.  Variety's Elsa Keslassy was up last Thursday with a Cannes speculation/prediction piece and so let's parse that for titles that might be candidates for The SHOW.

James Gray's Armageddon Time/Focus Features

Florian Zeller's The Son/SPC

George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing UA/MGM

David Cronenberg's Crimes of the Future/NEON

Kelly Reichardt's Showing Up/A24

The Dardennes Brothers' Tori and Lokita/TBD

Hirokazu Kore-eda's Baby, Box, Broker/TBD

Ali Abassi's Hamlet/TBD

Meanwhile, Wes Anderson's latest, Asteroid City, is reportedly foregoing Cannes for Venice.  After last year's TFF "Sneak" of The French Dispatch, perhaps Anderson books a second straight film at TFF and they make the Venice to Colorado trek that has become very popular over the past several years.  Last year The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Spencer and The Card Counter and other films made that journey.

Here's that reporting from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Belfast writer/director Kenneth Branagh from Deadline's Oscar nominee series.

King Richard's Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis from Variety.

The Lost Daughter's writer/director Maggie Gyllenhaal from Gold Derby.

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MTFB Predicts the Oscar Winners in Six More Categories / Cannes Speculation Starts / Interviews and Profiles: Branagh and Hinds

MTFB PREDICTS THE OSCAR WINNERS IN SIX MORE CATEGORIES

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) Encanto

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) West Side Story

3) Not Time to Die

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune

2) Cruella

3) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) The House of Gucci

5) Coming 2 America

Through the 20 predicted feature film categories I have TFF #48 films winning the following:

The Power of the Dog-Picture, Director, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.  It is competitive also for Supporting Actress, Editing and Score.

Belfast-Original Screenplay.  Belfast is also competitive for Picture and Director.

King Richard- Actor

If my predictions are perfect then Dune will win Editing, Production Design, Score, Visual Effects, Makeup/Hair and Sound for a total of six wins.  Dune is also competitive for Cinematography and Costumes.

So the race for what films wins the most Oscars on March 27th boils down to a close tussle between The Power of the Dog and Dune.  Cinematography and Editing might be the determining categories.

Here are the predictions from the previous two posts of the 14 other Oscar categories:

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) West Side Story

4) King Richard

5) Licorice Pizza

6)  CODA

7) Dune

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Paul Thomas Anderson/Licorice Pizza

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

BEST ACTRESS

1) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

2) Troy Kotsur/CODA

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemoms/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) The Worst Person in the World

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My CarInterviews and Pro

5) Dune

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) Summer of Soul

2) Flee

3) Attica

4) Ascension

5) Writing with Fire

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) Encanto

2) The Mitchells vs. the Machines

3) Luca

4) Flee

5) Raya and the Last Dragon

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Drive My Car

2) The Worst Person in the World

3) The Hand of God

4) Flee

5) Luana: A Yak in the Classroom

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Dune

3) The Tragedy of Macbeth

4) Nightmare Alley

5) West Side Story

BEST EDITING

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Don't Look Up

4) King Richard

5) tick, tick...BOOM

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune

2) Nightmare Alley

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) The Tragedy of Macbeth

CANNES SPECULATION STARTS

Oscar nominations are out, the Sundance and Berlin Fests are over and it's time to start thinking about what films might play Cannes and which of those might be crossover films that could be selected for TFF #49.

The Hollywood Reporter's Alex Ritman offers up 20 possibilities in the post from today that I have linked here.

Of the 20 films listed, the titles and directors that stand out to me a possibilities for The SHOW sight unseen are:

She Said/Maria Schrader dist: Universal

Crimes of the Future/David Cronenberg dist: Neon

The Son/Florian Zeller dist: Sony Pictures Classics

Showing Up/Kelly Reichardt dist: A24

Asteroid City/Wes Andrson dist: N/A

Bardo/Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu dist: N/A

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Kenneth Branagh on IFTA Screen discussions:

Ciaran Hinds with The Los Angeles Times

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I'm Not Too Bright... / Telluride a Hot Destination? / Cannes Critical Response / A Hint on a Short

 I'M NOT TOO BRIGHT

Well, I'm silly.  If you read last Thursday's post, you know I had a whole chunk about how I was thinking that the Val Kilmer documentary "Val" might be  a Telluride selection.  I even boldly put it into last week's Ten Bets at the # 9 spot. 

It was less than 24 hours later that I found that Val has been dated (by Amazon) for an August release. That clearly puts the kibosh on that notion.  I should have been better on my due diligence.  Mea Culpa!

Anyway, I guess Amazon will have a limited release on July 23rd and Amazon subscribers will be able to see the film on August 6th.

TELLURIDE A HOT DESTINATION?

For the past several weeks, there has been a low level buzz that Telluride and Venice both will benefit from some reluctance on the part of film makers to make plans to debut a film in Toronto due to Canada's approach to Covid-19.  Now, with the Delta variant raising numbers, there is some thought that could further push big name films to either Telluride or Venice or both,

Jeff Wells raises that notion in a post on his website Hollywood Elsewhere writing:

"The word along the Croisette is that certain distributors have either pulled their films out of the 2021 Toronto Film Festival or are seriously thinking about same. Why? Because (a) the Telluride and Venice festivals, unlike Toronto, are not leaning on streaming, and (b) distributors greatly prefer live-audience projection screenings."

We should be getting some serious hard info soon as Toronto is set to announce it's first wave of films on July 20th, a week from tomorrow.  That assumes that TIFF announces films with their premiere status designated but I wonder if that will happen this year.  TIFF has already named 13 films that will play there and did so with no premiere designation.  So, who knows?

CANNES CRITICAL RESPONSE

As the second week of the Cannes Film Festival gets ready to launch, let's check in with how critics' panels are reacting to the Plame d'Or competition films.

Ioncinema's panel has Leos Carax's Annette on top.  Here's the latest chart:

And the link to the Ioncinema article.

Screen Daily has Annette on top as well.

Screen Daily's Critics' Panel is linked here.

Reini Urban has Jauques Audiard's Paris 13th District on top but that's with only a single review.

Reini Urban's compilation.

Check back on Thursday for updated critical response.

A HINT ON A SHORT

I ran across a tweet this weekend that lead me to a news story about a short film called Mark of the Butterfly.  The reason I mention it here is that the film maker Chris Carter seems to imply in the news article from South Carolina television station WLTX that the film could play T-ride.  From the article:

"Carter has submitted Mark of the Butterfly to eight different film festivals. He says those festivals have strict rules about premiering it after submitting it. It will officially be able to be seen after the Telluride Film Festival in September."

So, he doesn't actually say that's it's playing Telluride but he sure implies it.

From the same article, here is the description of the film:

"It's about a high-powered attorney, who is one of the top attorneys in the state," explained Carter. "Now, she's up for a prestigious job as the district attorney, but she is suffering from lupus."

The complete article is linked here.

And, from YouTube, here's a trailer for the film:

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Ned Beatty 1937-2021 / Cannes Update / One of Those Random Things / The Power of the Dog Goes to Venice

 NED BEATTY 1937-2021

Actor Ned Beatty died yesterday.  I can't recall a Telluride connection off the top of my head.  He was just a great actor and I wanted to take  moment and say that in print.  Incredible in Deliverance and the deliverer of one of the finest movie monologues in the history of cinema in Network.

CANNES UPDATE

Since we last touched base about the Cannes' lineup the Director's Fortnight and Critic's Week films have been announced.  A few other films have been announced to various sections as well but it seems to me that the only one announced in the latest batch that has some TFF traction is Ari Folman's Where Is Anne Frank which was announced as a late addition to the Palme d'Or competition.

Here's a link to the latest adds from Awards Watch.

ONE OF THOSE RANDOM THINGS

So a bit of a buzz in the second half of last week that involved a tip from a friend and an IMDb listing.

I'm not going to get into details yet because I need to be more certain that it wasn't a giant error or someone pulling  a prank.  But, should the bare bones of the info pan out, TFF will have a major title that I have mentioned in passing but haven't really thought would be a film with a significant likelihood of playing in Telluride.

I will say that for a period of time late last week, the film was listed at IMDb as playing Telluride and then that was scrubbed before the end of the day that it appeared.  I have more work to do and will get back to you soon.

THE POWER OF THE THE DOG GOES TO VENICE

Jane Campion's The Power of the Dog will be at Venice this year and could possibly make the move to Telluride as a number of Venetian bowing films do.  Campion's last feature film, Bright Star, played T-ride in 2009 as did her Oscar winning The Piano in 1993.  The film is distributed by Netflix and has no announced release date as yet.

Here's coverage from Variety concerning the film's selection by Venice.

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Oscar Update: Picture and Acting / Awards News This Week / Cannes Moves

 OSCAR UPDATE: PICTURE AND ACTING

Six weeks away from the announcement of nominees for the 93rd Academy Awards means that I need to begin consolidating categories for more efficient and more frequently updating of all of the 23 categories (remember Sound Editing and Mixing has been combined into a single category for this year's awards).  Also, keep an eye open over at Movie City News' Gurus of Gold for further updates from the community of us that are this year's Gurus.  A new post should be coming from that quarter soon.

From me today are updates for Best Picture and all the acting categories.  The charts show my current expectation in order of the likelihood of nomination.  The number in parentheses to the right is the position that predicted candidate had here the last time I posted (Best Picture, Actress and Actor were on Jan. 18 and the Supporting Acting categories was on Jan. 21)  As always, predicted nominees from TFF are in Bold

BEST PICTURE 

1) Nomadland (1)

2) The Trial of the Chicago 7 (2)

3) Minari (5)

4) Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (6)

5) Da 5 Bloods (-)

6) Mank (3)

7) One Night in Miami (4)

8) Judas and the Black Messiah (9)

9) News of the World (8)

10) Promising Young Woman (10)

Other Possibles:  Sound of Metal, Soul, First Cow, The Father

Hot: Da 5 Bloods, Minari, Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

Not: Mank, One Night in Miami, The Father

BEST ACTRESS

1) Frances McDormand/Nomadland (1)

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (3)

3) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman (4)

4) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman (2)

5) Zendaya/Malcom and Marie (-)

6) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday (5)

7) Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead (10)

8) Sidney Flanigan/Never Sometimes Rarely Always (7)

9) Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy (-)

10) Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth (-)

Other Possibles: Meryl Streep/The Prom, Kate Winslet/Ammonite

Hot: Zendaya/Malcolm and Marie, Sophia Loren/The Life Ahead, Amy Adams/Hillbilly Elegy, Nichole Behaire/Miss Juneteenth

Not: Michelle Pfeiffer/French Exit, Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (1)

2) Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods (4)

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal (3)

4) Anthony Hopkins/The Father (2)

5) Gary Oldman/Mank (6)

6) Steven Yeun/Minari (5)

7) Ben Affleck/The Way Back (9)

8) Kingsley Ben-Adir/One Night in Miami (8)

9) Tom Hanks/News of the World (7)

10) John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie (-)

Other Possibles: LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah, Mads Mikkelsen/Another Round

Hot:Delroy Lindo/Da 5 Bloods, Ben Affleck/The Way Back, John David Washington/Malcolm and Marie

Not: Anthony Hopkins/The Father, Tom Hanks/News of the World, LaKeith Stanfield/Judas and the Black Messiah

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (1)

2) Olivia Colman/The Father (3)

3) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (2)

4) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (5)

5) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (4)

6) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (6)

7) Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah (-)

8) Jodie Foster/The Mauritainian (7)

9) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (9)

10) Helena Zengel/News of the World (8)

Other Possibles: Olivia Cooke/Sound of Metal, Candace Bergen/Let Them Talk

Hot: Dominique Fishback/Judas and the Black Messiah

Not: Helena Zengel/News of the World

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Daniel Kaluuya/Judas and the Black Messiah (1)

2) Sacha Baron Cohen/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (3)

3) Leslie Odom, Jr./One Night in Miami (2)

4) Chadwick Boseman/Da 5 Bloods (4)

5) Paul Raci/Sound of Metal (5)

6) Bill Murray/On the Rocks (6)

7) David Stratharin/Nomadland (9)

8) Mark Rylance/The Trial of the Chicago 7 (8)

9) Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom (-)

10) Stanley Tucci/Supernova (7)

Other Possibles: Eddie Redmayne/The Trial of the Chicago 7, Yahya Abdul-Mateen II/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Hot: Glynn Turman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, David Stratharin/Nomadland

Not: Stanley Tucci/Supernova

AWARDS NEWS THIS WEEK

Nominations coming this week from the Golden Globes and the Screen Actors Guild are the two biggest Awards Season harbingers that will occur this week.  The Globes will announce their nominees on Wednesday morning, Feb. 3rd.  SAG nominations will pop on Thursday, Feb. 4th.

Other awards news this week...BAFTA announces their longlists for nomination possibilities on Thursday.

The IPA's Satellite Awards nominations are to be announced today.

CANNES MOVES...

We found out this week that the Cannes Film Festival will move from its traditional May dates to July this year as again, Covid-19 continues to wreak havoc on the world's film fests.  The Playlist reports that the new dates are July 6-17.

Of primary concern to TFF adherents are whether and to what extent there might be an effect on films that could play at Telluride.  It's no secret that the two fests often share a number of titles in a normal year. 

One has to wonder if that normal overlap changes this year because of the later Cannes?  Will the French fest now have a later date for announcing their lineup?  Almost assuredly.  It also means that TFF programmers that usually get to see the Cannes wares in May will have a shorter window to work with in terms of programming.

From a prognosticators viewpoint, it means that we'll have a longer period of greater uncertainty.  Not that there's anything wrong with that.

And wither Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch?  The film is all but certain to play whatever version of Cannes that exists in July and the current scuttlebutt is that it will be a September release.  Does the Cannes delay make it more or less likely that Anderson finally makes an appearance with a film at Telluride?

All good questions.  I'll try as best I can to answer some of them over the next few weeks.

Here's The Playlist's coverage of the Cannes announcement.

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Oscar Update: Best Supporting Actress / TFF #47 Docs Short Listed / Bee Gees Doc Is Dated by HBO / Tidbits

 OSCAR UPDATE: BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Here are my latest Oscar nomination predictions for Best Supporting Actress updated since I last posted this category on  Oct. 1st.  A performer's past position is indicated to the right in parentheses.  TFF #47 performers are indicated in Bold.

1) Olivia Colman/The Father (1)

2) Amanda Seyfried/Mank (2)

3) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy (4)

4) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite (3)

5) Helena Zengel/News of the World (5)

6) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman (6)

7) Youn Yuh-jung/Minari (-)

8) Maria Bakalova/Borat Subsequent Moviefilm (-)

9) Lily Collins/Mank (-)

10) Meryl Streep/The Prom (7)

TFF #47 DOCS SHORT LISTED

The International Documentary Association announced their short list for their awards this past week and three films from the TFF #47 announced list made the cut:

Sam Pollard's MLK/FBI

Gianfranco Rosi's Notturno

Michael Dweck and Gregory Kershaw's The Truffle Hunters

According to Indiewire's Anne Thompson, the IDA will announce nominees on Nov. 24th and winners will be announced via a virtual ceremony at some point in January 2021.

Here's the link to the full story from Thompson/Indiewire.

BEE GEES DOC IS DATED BY HBO

Frank Marshall's documentary about the Bee Gees, The Bee Gees: How Can You Mend Broken Heart, which was a TFF #47 selection has been scheduled by HBO and HBO Max.  Deadline reports that the film will drop on HBO on Dec. 12th at 8:00pm (EST) and that it will also be available to stream on HBO Max.

HBO also released a first trailer for the film this past week.  Here that is from YouTube:

The complete Deadline article is linked here.

TIDBITS

Among this Monday's "Tidbits"...

The Cannes Film Festival has announced three separate contingency plans for re-scheduling should Covid conditions in France require that they move off their currently scheduled (and traditional) dates in May (11-22).  Variety reports that Cannes organizers are eye-balling three different sets of dates in July and August.

The whole Variety story is here.

AND... Searchlight Films have grabbed a new film in development.  Currently titled Dust, the film has Clare Foy attached to star at the moment.  I include it into today's post for a couple of reasons:

1) Searchlight and Telluride have had a really good relationship over the years...sooo...maybe a future TFF selection.  and

2) The film is set in the dust bowl of 1930's Oklahoma.  Yea...that's right...the film is set 90 years ago in my backyard.  HELLO SEARCHLIGHT...Location shooting?  Call me.  Extras in the area: Give me a ring-a-ding.  Research co-ordination: Hello???  I mean Guymon, OK. is literally the heart/bullseye for the Dust Bowl.  My only actual IMDb entry is the special thanks for Ken Burns' The Dust Bowl.  The wife and I did some location scouting and co-ordination.

Here's the link to the story about the Searchlight acquisition of the film and some of the details from The Wrap.

And, by way of proof, the screenshot of my Dust Bowl credit from IMDb:

That's Monday...BTW...if you haven't already...vote tomorrow.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Oscar 2021 First Attempt-Best Supporting Actress / Cannes Items / Truffles in The Netherlands

 OSCAR 2021 FIRST ATTEMPT-BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

MTFB continues its first pass at predicting Oscar nominees for 2020-21 in various major categories.  Today we're looking at Best Supporting Actress with, as always, a focus on those performances that were a part of the list of 29 films that TFF released that would have been screened as a part of TFF #47.  Performers designated with *** are in films that may not be released prior to the Feb, 28, 2021 Oscar eligibility deadline.   TFF#47 performers are in Bold:

1) Olivia Colman/The Father

2) Amanda Seyfried/Mank

3) Saoirse Ronan/Ammonite

4) Glenn Close/Hillbilly Elegy***

5) Helena Zengel/News of the World***

6) Ellen Burstyn/Pieces of a Woman

7) Meryl Streep/The Prom***

8) Audra McDonald/Respect

9) Mary J. Blige/Respect

10)Abagail Breslin/Stillwater***

CANNES ITEMS

Acouple of notes about the Cannes Film Fest that emerged over the past few days.

First, news that Cannes will be hosting a mini-fest.  Variety's Manori Ravidran reports that the fest will host a special event on Oct. 27-29 and will feature four films from their released official selections list.  Other events including a shorts program will also be included.

Fest Director Thierry Fremaux is quoted as saying:

 

“The films of the Official Selection are currently playing to cinemagoers in France, in Europe and throughout the world. It’s a great sign to see them making a stopover in Cannes, before we turn our attention to the 2021 season.”

Cannes has also announced that the fest's dates for 2021 will be May11-22.

The Variety article is linked here.

Meanwhile, it appears that my prediction that Wes Anderson's The French Dispatch will premiere at Cannes in 2021 may be coming true.  After Indiewire's Anne Thompson hinted at it last week and now both The Playlist and World of Reel are echoing Indiewire's story.

Here are links to The Playlist and the World of Reel spins on the original Indiewire reporting.

There was a good deal of speculation that The French Dispatch was, at one point, on the TFF #47 list of films.  Now, perhaps, we put it on the TFF #48(?) list.

TRUFFLES IN THE NETHERLANDS

Greg Kershaw and Michael Dweck's documentary The Truffle Hunters continues its run of inclusion in high profile film festivals.  The latest addition is to the International Documentary Film Festival Amsterdam (IFDA).  IFDA is set for Nov 18-29 in The Netherlands and will be a hybrid of physical and virtual events.

Variety has the story here.

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The Directors Fete Cuaron / My Current Oscar Predictions in Ten Categories / Country Music In Telluride? / Rumors of a New Cannes Policy

Welcome to February Ladies and Germs...


THE DIRECTORS FETE CUARON

Photo via Reuters

The Directors Guild of America awarded Alfonso Cuaron their highest honor for feature film making on Saturday night naming him the 2018's outstanding director for Roma.

Some of the Oscarati (the Oscar punditry class...of which, by dint of my presence as a Movie City Guru of Gold, I guess I am now a member) are suggesting that the win points to Roma as the likely front runner for Oscar's Best Picture trophy.

I've had Roma at the top of my predix for about a month now and the DGA win makes me breathe a little easier...but not much.  I still think the Best Picture race is incredibly fluid with Green Book, BlacKkKlansman, A Star Is Born and Black Panther...maybe even Bohemian Rhapsody as possible winners when the envelope gets opened on Feb. 24th.

At any rate, Cuaron wins his second DGA in five years (after winning for Gravity) and is very likely to win the directing Oscar now as well regardless of how the Best Picture race shakes out.  It appears Roma could win Picture, Direction, Foreign Language Film and Cinematography.  Should that happen, Cuaron might well walk off the stage with four trophies...

DGA coverage is linked here from Variety and also from Indiewire.


MY CURRENT OSCAR PREDICTIONS IN TEN CATEGORIES

Here's my latest take on predicting Oscar winners in select categories...

BEST PICTURE

1) Roma
2) BlacKkKlansman
3) Green Book
4) A Star Is Born
5) Black Panther
6) Bohemian Rhapsody
7) Vice
8) The Favourite

BEST DIRECTION

1) Alfonso Cuaron/Roma
2) Spike Lee/BlacKkKlansman
3) Adam McKay/Vice
4) Yorgos Lanthimos/The Favourite
5) Pawel Pawlikowski/Cold War

ACTRESS

1) Glenn Close/The Wife
2) Lady Gaga/A Star Is Born
3) Olivia Colman/The Favourite
4) Melissa McCarthy/Can You Ever Forgive Me
5) Yalitza Aparicio/Roma

SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Regina King/If Beale Street Could Talk
2) Amy Adams/Vice
3) Emma Stone/The Favourite
4) Rachel Weisz/The Favourite
5) Maris de Tavira/Roma

ACTOR

1) Christian Bale/Vice***
2) Rami Malek/Bohemian Rhapsody***
3) Bradley Cooper/A Star Is Born
4) Viggo Mortensen/Green Book
5) Willem Dafoe/At Etrenity's Gate

***although this feels squeaky close now

SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Mahershala Ali/Green Book
2) Richard E. Grant/Can You Ever Forgive Me
3) Sam Elliott/A Star Is Born
4) Adam Driver/BlacKkKlansman
5) Sam Rockwell/Vice

ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Green Book
2) The Favourite
3) Roma
4) Vice
5) First Reformed


ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) BlacKkKlansman
2) If Beale Street Could Talk
3) Can You Ever Forgive Me
4) A Star Is Born
5) The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM

1) Roma
2) Cold War
3) Shoplifters
4) Capernaum
5) Never Look Away

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) RBG
2) Free Solo
3) Minding the Gap
4) Hale County This Evening-This Morning
5) Of Fathers and Sons

Final Oscar voting begins next week on Feb. 12th.



COUNTRY MUSIC IN TELLURIDE?

Photo via IMDb

Ken Burns latest multi-part documentary focuses on the history of country music in these United States.  The venerable documentarian's eight part 16+ hour presentation is set to premiere on PBS on Sept. 15th.

That means, as many Telluride veterans will surmise, that some of the Burns doc (or, hell, maybe all of the Burns doc) could well shoe up at The SHOW.

I certainly would be less than stunned if that were the case.  I could also foresee the possible inclusion of some of the individuals Burns includes in the doc as guests to the festival.  Maybe even a concert or two.

The Los Angeles Times posted a lengthy story about the project on Friday that you can find linked here.  Some folks that are reported to be included in the doc (and therefore fair game for TFF #46 speculation are: Vince Gill (who of late has been serving as a stand-in Eagle...but their current bookings only run to July 4th), Emmylou Harris (yes please) and Roseanne Cash.



RUMORS OF A NEW CANNES POLICY

Perhaps stung by last year's inability to strike a deal with Netflix to screen many of the films that the streaming giant had in its film pantry (such as, you know, Roma), The Playlist was reporting this weekend that the world's most famous film festival may have an offer for Netflix to consider in an attempt to lure some of its titles to the Croisette in May.

Charles Barfield wrote that a french journalist was tweeting...yes, I know, it sounds pretty shaky...that Cannes would offer to allow/invite Netflix titles to play in competition with the stipulation that should one of their films win an award that it would then be required to screen in French theaters.

The Playlist story does not suggest that the French law that requires a three year window between theatrical release and streaming would be altered in any way and that was the reported impasse in the past.

Why is this of interest to Telluride Film fans?  Because of the longtime record of films that the two fests have shared over the decades.  In the years since I've been attending (since 2006), the average overlap has been 7-8 films each year.  That's the most significant statistical correlation with any film festival.  So, what happens at Cannes almost always has some ripple effect regarding the TFF lineup for that year.

The complete story from The Playlist is linked here.


That's today's MTFB.  I'll have more on Thursday including a look at Oscar predictions for another seven categories.

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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Opening the Cannes...Speculation / The Film Stage's 50 Top Films of the Decade (So Far)

Welcome to Monday...

OPENING THE CANNES...SPECULATION

Over the years of writing this blog I have made the repeated claim that we always need to pay attention to what the Cannes Film Festival selects for its various programs.  The connection between Cannes and Telluride runs deep every year so if you're serious about trying to get a handle on the films that could be featured over Labor Day weekend, the Cannes lineup is a great place t begin that meditation.  It's also wisest to focus on the films that are in Palme d'Or competition.  That's not to say that T-ride doesn't chose films that play in other programs at Cannes such as Un Certain Regard, Director's Fortnight, etc. but most of the films that crossover between the festivals are competition films.

Last year was unusual as it had the fewest films shared by the french fest and Telluride in many a year.  Only six films played both places. (Offsetting that was an increase in the number of films that played both Venice and Telluride- eight, which is way above the average).

Telluride and Cannes shared: Rams, Carol and Son of Saul from the Palme competition lineup as well as three films from Cannes' documentary section: Hitchcock/Truffaut, Ingrid Bergman: In Her Own Words and Sembene!

Here's a look at the crossover between the two fests in the period that I have been attending the complete TFF:

2014: Competition films: Two Days, One Night, Mommy, The Homesman, Mr. Turner, Foxcatcher, Wild Tales and Leviathan.  UCR film: Salt of the Earth and Red Army from Cannes' Special Screenings.  Total crossover: Nine films

2013: Competition: Blue is the Warmest Color (Palme d"Or winner), Inside Llewyn Davis, Nebraska, The Past.  UCR: Manuscripts Don't Burn, The Missing Picture, Out of Comp: All Is Lost, Director's Fortnight: Jodorowsky's Dune, International Critic's Week: The Lunchbox.  Total crossover: Nine films.

2012: Competition: Amour (Palme d'Or winner), Rust and Bone, Paradise: Love, The Hunt. Director's Fortnight: No, Midnight Madness: The Sapphires.  Special Screening: The Central Park Five.  Others: Final Cut, Me and Me Dad, Journal de France.  Total crossover: Ten films.

2011: Competition: Footnote, The Kid with a Bike, The Artist, Le Havre, We Need to Talk to Kevin. Total crossover: Five films.

2010: Competition: Of Gods and Men, Biutiful, Poetry, Another Year, The Prince of Montpensier.  Out of Competition: Carlos, Tamara Drewe.  Special Screening: Inside Job.  Total crossover: Eight films.

2009: Competition: The White Ribbon (Palme d'Or winner) Bright Star, Fish Tank, A Prophet and Vincere.  Total crossover: Five films.

2008: Competition: Gomorrah, Waltz with Bashir, UCR: Hunger, O'Horten, Tulpan.  Out of Competition: The Good, the Bad and the Weird.  Total crossover: Six films.

2007: Competition: 4 Months, 3 Weeks, 2 Days (Palme d'Or winner) . The Diving Bell and the Butterfly, Persepolis.  UCR: The Band's Visit, Terror's Advocate.  Total crossover: Five films.

So, over that space of time, the two film festivals average sharing 6-7 films each year with four of them being competition films.  So, you can see that knowing what plays at Cannes is really a very good list of films to begin working with if you're trying to figure out a possible Telluride lineup.

Consequently, speculation about the Cannes lineup from smart writers is where you should start your investigation.  The main Cannes announcement is expected to come sometime around Apr. 16-18 (there seems to be a bit of uncertainty about this).  We start this game with a list of 20 films from The Playlist that they suggest might be Cannes possibles.  That complete post is here:

http://blogs.indiewire.com/theplaylist/20-films-we-hope-to-see-at-the-2016-cannes-film-festival-20160309

Telluride prospects from this list include:

American Honey

Family Photos

La La Land

Loving

Personal Shopper

Salt and Fire

The Unknown Girl

You can catch some Cannes speculation from The Guardian in this podcast:

http://www.theguardian.com/film/audio/2016/mar/11/cannes-predictions-and-anomalisa-reviewed-the-dailies-film-podcast

THE FILM STAGE'S 50 TOP FILMS OF THE DECADE (SO FAR)

The Film Stage posted this article this week with their evaluation of the 50 best films that have been released this decade.  It's fun.  Take a look at that list/article here:

http://thefilmstage.com/features/the-film-stages-top-50-films-of-the-decade-so-far/

Telluride films that make their list and their positions are:

48) The Turin Horse

39) Ida

33) Leviathan

30) Another Year

23) Shame

10) Inside Llewyn Davis

7) Amour

5) A Separation

2) Under the Skin

That's it for this Monday...come back for more on Thursday:

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