MTFB Oscar Take: Latest "Above the Line" Oscar Predictions / Film Independent Spirit Awards / Guild Awards: Art Directors and Editors / More Cannes Spec / Interviews and Profiles

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LATEST "ABOVE THE LINE" OSCAR PREDICTIONS

BEST PICTURE

1) The Power of the Dog

2) Belfast

3) CODA

4) West Side Story

5) King Richard

6) Dune

7) Licorice Pizza

8) Don't Look Up

9) Drive My Car

10) Nightmare Alley

Comment: With its Best Cast SAG win CODA moved from #7 to #3.

BEST DIRECTION

1) Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

2) Kenneth Branagh/Belfast

3) Steven Spielberg/West Side Story

4) Licorice Pizza/Paul Thomas Anderson

5) Ryusuke Hamaguchi/Drive My Car

BEST ACTRESS

1) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Kristen Stewart/Spencer

3) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos

4) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter

5) Penelope Cruz/Parallel Mothers

Comment: SAG win moves Chastain to the top.

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM

4) Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth

5) Javier Bardem/Being the Ricardos

1) BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Ariana DeBose/West Side Story

2) Kirsten Dunst/The Power of the Dog

3) Aunjanue Ellis/King Richard

4) Jesse Buckley/The Lost Daughter

5) Judi Dench/Belfast

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Troy Kotsur/CODA

2) Kodi Smit-McPhee/The Power of the Dog

3) Ciaran Hinds/Belfast

4) Jesse Plemons/The Power of the Dog

5) J.K. Simmons/Being the Ricardos

Comment: Kotsur's SAG win propels him past Smit-McPhee.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast

2) Licorice Pizza

3) Don't Look Up

4) The Worst Person in the World

5) King Richard

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog

2) CODA

3) The Lost Daughter

4) Drive My Car

5) Dune

COW TRAILER

The header for this story is funny..."Cow Trailer".  Hahahahaha.  now then, Andrea Arnold's Cow has a trailer and here it is:

FILM INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS

The Film Independent Spirit Awards were handed out on Sunday.  Maggie Gyllenhaal's The Lost Daughter had an exceptional evening winning Best Feature, Director and Screenplay.  TFF #48 selection Red Rocket was also recognized for Best Actor with Simon Rex winning that award.  The complete listing of all Spirit Awards winners is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.

GUILD AWARDS: ART DIRECTORS, ACE: EDDIES

The Art Directors Guild named their winners for 2021 films this past weekend.  No TFF #48 films made their lists.  Film winners were Nightmare Alley, No Time to Die, Dune and Encanto.

Coverage from Variety.

The American Cinema Editors (ACE) named TFF #48 film King Richard edited by Pamela Martin as the Best edited dramatic feature film of 2021.  Other winners included: tick, tcik...BOOM, Summer of Soul and Encanto.

Coverage from Nest Best Picture.

MORE CANNES SPEC

What will be the 5-8 films that will debut at Cannes and then make their first  North American appearance at TFF #49?  Obviously we won't know until Thursday, Sept. 1st but that can't stop us from thinking and predicting and hoping.  Variety's Elsa Keslassy was up last Thursday with a Cannes speculation/prediction piece and so let's parse that for titles that might be candidates for The SHOW.

James Gray's Armageddon Time/Focus Features

Florian Zeller's The Son/SPC

George Miller's Three Thousand Years of Longing UA/MGM

David Cronenberg's Crimes of the Future/NEON

Kelly Reichardt's Showing Up/A24

The Dardennes Brothers' Tori and Lokita/TBD

Hirokazu Kore-eda's Baby, Box, Broker/TBD

Ali Abassi's Hamlet/TBD

Meanwhile, Wes Anderson's latest, Asteroid City, is reportedly foregoing Cannes for Venice.  After last year's TFF "Sneak" of The French Dispatch, perhaps Anderson books a second straight film at TFF and they make the Venice to Colorado trek that has become very popular over the past several years.  Last year The Power of the Dog, The Lost Daughter, Spencer and The Card Counter and other films made that journey.

Here's that reporting from Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Belfast writer/director Kenneth Branagh from Deadline's Oscar nominee series.

King Richard's Oscar nominee Aunjanue Ellis from Variety.

The Lost Daughter's writer/director Maggie Gyllenhaal from Gold Derby.

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Updated Oscar Predictions: Cinematography, Score, Production Design / Clues from Critics / Guilds Begin Their Long March / New Gurus of Gold

UPDATED OSCAR PREDICTIONS: CINEMATOGRAPHY, ORIGINAL SCORE AND PRODUCTION DESIGN

TFF #46 films highlighted are Bold.


CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) 1917 (3)
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
3) The Irishman (2)
4) Joker (-)
5) Ford v Ferrari (-)
6) The Lighthouse (-)


Other possibles: A Hidden Life, The Two Popes, Little Women


ORIGINAL SCORE

1) 1917 (3)
2) Marriage Story (4)
3) Little Women (2)
4) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (1)
5) Joker (-)
6) Ford v Ferrari (5)

Other possibles: Jojo Rabbit, Portrait of a Lady on Fire


PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (1)
2) 1917 (-)
3) The Irishman (3)
4) Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker (2)
5) Joker (-)
6) Parasite (-)

Other possibles: Jojo Rabbit, The Two Popes, Little Women



CLUES FROM CRITICS

The six critics lists that I pay most attention to this time of year have all reported in and if the past has anything to reveal about the Oscar best Picture race looking at those results; it's that your Best Picture winner is on that list somewhere but is not the top film on the list.

Here's what we saw the last couple of years from the collective look at NBR, AFI, the Golden Globes, The Critics Choice, the Los Angeles Critics and the New York Critics:

From 2017 (film followed by the organization(s) that awarded them...Oscar Best Pic Nominees are in Blue and the winner is Red)

10) The Disaster Artist (NBR, GG)
7) The Florida Project (NBR, BFCA, AFI)
7) The Big Sick (BFCA, AFI, SAG)
7) The Shape of Water (BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) The Post (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Dunkirk (NBR, BFCA, GG, AFI)
4) Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
2) Call Me By Your Name (NBR, LA, BFCA, GG, AFI)
2) Get Out (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)
1) Lady Bird (NBR, NY, BFCA, GG, SAG, AFI)

So it included TFF #44 films Lady Bird, and The Shape of Water.  It also included eventual Oscar Best Picture winner, The Shape of Water. and nominees Lady Bird, Three Billboards, Dunkirk, The Post, Get Out, Call Me By Your Name and Dunkirk.  So, the top seven got in with the additions, of TFF #44 film Darkest Hour and also Phantom Thread.

Here are the results from 2018:

9) Six films tied here with two mentions each: Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, Eighth Grade, First Reformed, A Quiet Place and Vice.

7) Mary Poppins Returns (3): NBR, AFI, BFCA
7) The Favourite (3): GG, AFI, BFCA
4) If Beale Street Could Talk (4): NBR, GG, AFI, BFCA
4) Green Book (4): NBR (best picture), GG, AFI, BFCA
4) BlacKkKlansman (4): GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) A Star Is Born (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA
1) Roma (5): NBR, NY, LA, AFI (special citation), BFCA
1) Black Panther (5): NBR, GG, AFI, SAG, BFCA

With single mentions: The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, Can You Ever Forgive Me? and First Man.

So where are for 2019 (TFF #46 films in Green):

1) The Irishman (6) NBR, AFI, GG, CC, NY -runner-up, LA
2) 1917 (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
2) Jojo Rabbit (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
2) Marriage Story (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
2) Once Upon a Time...in Hollywood (4) NBR, AFI, GG, CC
6) Joker (3) AFI, GG, CC
6) Knives Out (3) NBR, AFI, GG
6) Parasite (3) AFI-special citation, CC, LA
9) The Farewell (2) NBR, AFI
9) Ford v Ferrari (2) NBR, CC
9) Little Women (2) AFI, CC
9) Richard Jewell (2) NBR, AFI
9) Uncut Gems (2) NBR, CC

Single mentions for: Waves, The Two Popes, Rocketman, Dolemite Is My Name, Judy and A Hidden Life.


GUILDS BEGIN THEIR LONG MARCH

The Screen Actors Guild/AFTRA named their nominees for acting awards for the past year yesterday.  Nominees included these performers from TFF #46 films:

Marriage Story: Scarlett Johansson/Best Actress, Adam Driver/Best Actor, Laura Dern/Best Supporting Actress

Judy: Renee Zellweger/Best Actress

Ford v Ferrari: Christian Bale/Best Actor, Best Stunt Ensemble

Best Ensemble nominees included: Parasite

Jay Roach's Bombshell led all films with four nominations.  Charlize Theron for Leading Actress and both Margot Robbie and Nicole Kidman for Supporting Actress and a nomination for Best Ensemble.

The complete list of SAG/AFTRA nominees are linked here.


Meanwhile, the Art Directors Guild, the Cinema Audio Society and the Costume Designers Guild also have named their nominees.

James Mangold's Ford v Ferrari broke through with nods for Sound from the CAS as well as Period Production Design from the Art Directors Guild.

Parasite was nominated also by the ADG for Best Contemporary Production Design.

The complete list of nominees for the ADG is linked here.

Additionally, the Association of Cinema Editors (A.C.E.) announced their nominees for excellence in editing yesterday.  TFF #46 films included among those nominees were: Ford v Ferrari, Marriage Story and Parasite in the Drama category.  Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice was nominated in the feature documentary category.

The complete list of A.C.E. nominees is linked here


No TFF #46 film earned a Costume Design Guild nomination this year.  Those nominees can be viewed here.


NEW GURUS OF GOLD

Movie City News has a new updated set of predictions from The Gurus of Gold.  Categories that are included in this latest set of Guru guesses are Best Picture, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Director, and Screenplays.

Here's the link to the latest Gurus of Gold.

TFF #46 that are predicted to get nominations according to the Gurus in these eight categories are:

Marriage Story: Best Picture, Best Actress, Best Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Best Direction, Original Screenplay

Parasite: Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Original Screenplay

Ford v Ferrari: Best Picture

The Two Popes: Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Adapted Screenplay

Judy: Best Actress

Pain and Glory: Best Actor



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COMMENT TO THE BLOG

Guilds and More Guilds / BAFTA Nominates / Golden Globe Analysis

Welcome back to MTFB...

GUILDS AND MORE GUILDS

Since Monday's post a number of the guilds that make up workers in the film world have named their nominees for excellence in their areas of expertise.  Here's a note about each of those beginning with the Director's Guild of America (DGA).

The DGA nominees included these TFF #45 films:

On Monday the DGA named their documentary nominees which included Elizabeth Chai Vasarheyli and Jimmy Chin for Free Solo.

The Writers Guild nominees included from Telluride:

Roma for Original Screenplay and Can You Forgive Me? for Adapted Screenplay.

Others nominated for Original Screenplay included: Eighth Grade, Green Book, A Quiet Place and Vice.  Others nominated for Adapted Screenplay are: BlacKkKlansman, Black Panther, If Beale Street Could Talk and A Star Is Born.

Here is coverage from The Playlist.

The American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) named four TFF #45 films for their award for 2018:  Roma, Cold War, The Favourite and First Man.  The other nominee was A Star Is Born.

Additionally, Girl and TFF #44 film The Rider were named for the ASC Spotlight Award

Here is coverage from The Hollywood Reporter.

The Art Directors Guild (ADG) named a number of TFF films for consideration for their awards in  the Period Film Category TFF nominated films were: First Man, The Favourite and Roma. 

Complete nominees in all categories are here from Variety

Cinema Audio Society nominees included First Man and Free Solo.  The full list of CAS nominees is linked here from Awards Daily.


BAFTA NOMINATES

Early Wednesday morning the British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their film nominees for 2018.  TFF #45 hit The Favourite led the field with 12 nominations.  Roma and First Man each had seven.  Other TFF #45 films also made the grade for nominations.  Here's the BAFTA/TFF #45 list:

The Favourite (12): Best Film, Best British Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress (2), Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Costume, Makeup/Hair.

Roma (7): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design.

First Man (7): Adapted Screenplay, Supporting Actress, Cinematography, Film Editing, Production Design, Sound, Visual Effects.

Cold War (4): Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Original Screenplay, Cinematography.

Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3): Adapted Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actress.

And four TFF #45 films that earned a single BAFTA nomination:

Dogman: Best Film Not in the English Language
Shoplifters: Best Film Not in the English Language
Free Solos: Best Documentary
The Field: Best British Short Film

TFF #45 films earned 37 BAFTA nominations in total.

Here's the complete coverage of the BAFTA announcement from Indiewire.

Last year TFF #44 films had 31 BAFTA nominations including 12 for eventual Best Picture Oscar winner The Shape of Water.

GOLDEN GLOBE ANALYSIS

Here are a sampling of takes from the results if last Sunday's Golden Globe results:

Anne Thompson/Indiewire

Sasha Stone/Awards Daily

Kristopher Tapley and Michael Schnieder/Variety

Joyce Eng/Gold Derby

Alissa Wilkinson/Vox

Brendan Morrow/The Week


That's your MTFB for this Thursday.  I'll have more for you on Monday.


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Producers Guild/Art Directors Guild/The Descendants and Shame/Latest Oscar Predictions and Critics/New Feature

Good Morning Mr. & Ms. America and all the ships at sea...

GUILDS....
PRODUCERS...

Ten films named by the Producers Guild of America this past week as the Best of the year.  Here's the list (via The New York Times Carpetbagger):


–“The Artist” (Thomas Langmann, producer)
–“Bridesmaids” (Judd Apatow, Barry Mendel, Clayton Townsend)
–“The Descendants” (Jim Burke, Alexander Payne, Jim Taylor)
–“The Girl With the Dragon Tattoo” (Ceán Chaffin, Scott Rudin)
–“The Help” (Michael Barnathan, Chris Columbus, Brunson Green)
–“Hugo” (Graham King, Martin Scorsese)
–“The Ides of March” (George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Brian Oliver)
–“Midnight in Paris” (Letty Aronson, Stephen Tenenbaum)
–“Moneyball” (Michael De Luca, Rachael Horovitz, Brad Pitt)
–“War Horse” (Kathleen Kennedy, Steven Spielberg)


As expected only two TFF #38 films make the grade, "The Artist" and "The Descendants".  I was a little surprised to see "Girl with the Dragon Tattoo", "Bridesmaids" and "Ides of March" make it and also a little surprised that "Extremely Loud" "Drive" and "Tree of Life" did not.  Many pundits are saying that kills their chances at Best Picture.  I'm saying "Let's hold on til we see the DGA nominations next Monday.


PGA stories and analysis from The Hollywood Reporter:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/pga-awards-nominations-war-horse-the-artist-descendants-moneyball-277532

The New York Times/Carpetbagger:

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/producers-guild-releases-its-nominations/

http://carpetbagger.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/01/03/where-the-producers-guild-and-the-academy-part-ways/

Movie City News:

http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/pga-tees-off-shoots-for-par/

ART DIRECTORS

The ADG announced its nominees in 3 separate categories yesterday.  Keep in mind that the Academy doesn't segment their Art Direction Oscar into three different categories.  Here's the list of nominees from Awards Daily:

http://www.awardsdaily.com/2012/01/2012-art-directors-guild-nominees/

Writers" Guild and USC Scripter nominations are to be announced later today and the Directors' Guild nominations are due out on Monday.

THE DESCENDANTS AND SHAME

Fox Searchlight keeps plugging away with Awards season links.  Here's the latest Descendants featurette from them:
http://content.foxsearchlight.com/inside/node/5068

And David Poland's interview with Judy Greer for The Movie City News:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/dp30-2011-the-descendants-actor-judy-greer/

And a new Michael Fassbender/Shame featurette via The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/michael-fassbender-shame-video-oscars-278014

OSCARS AND CRITICS

The latest Oscar predictions from Scott Feinberg at The Hollywood Reporter:
http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/race/oscar-race-predictions-war-horse-drive-ballots-277274

Also from Dave Karger at Entertainment Weekly:
http://insidemovies.ew.com/2012/01/03/oscar-predictions-after-producers-guild/

And finally another compilation (and it IS massive) of critics from The Movie City News:
http://moviecitynews.com/2012/01/analyzing-the-top-10-list-of-lists-2011/

NEW FEATURE

Starting tomorrow, the Film Awards Clearinghouse will begin a more frequent category by category analysis of the looming Oscar race.  Nominations are due to be announced on Jan. 24th.  Tomorrow we'll look at this year's Best Actor race.

Until next time America, which means Monday...

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