MTFB Oscar Update: Oscar Winners Predictions: Screenplays and More / BAFTA and TFF #51 / Writers' Guild and TFF #51

 MTFB OSCAR WINNERS PREDICTIONS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

We're under two weeks to Oscar night.  Today I am updating predictions for both screenplay categories as well as International , Animated and Documentary features.  These categories were first predicted two weeks back on Feb. 3rd.  As always, TFF films are Bold.  A film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Conclave (1)

2) A Complete Unknown (2)

3) Nickel Boys (3)

4) Emilia Perez (4)

5) Sing Sing (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anora (1)

2) The Substance (3)

3) A Real Pain (4)

4) The Brutalist (2)

5) September 5 (5)

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) I'm Still Here (1)

2) Emilia Perez (3)

3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig (2)

4) Flow  (4)

5) The Girl with the Needle (5)

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) The Wild Robot (1)

2) Flow (2)

3) Inside Out 2 (3)

4) Memoir of a Snail (5)

5) Wallace and Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl (4)

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) No Other Land (1)

2) Porcelain War (4)

3) Black Box Diaries (3)

4) Sugarcane (2)

5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat (5)

Comments:  Despite the backlash, Emilia Perez still looks like it has a real shot at the International Feature Oscar.  I still have it behind I'm Still Here but it feels close.  Additionally, Porcelain War has surged in the Documentary category.  The biggest lock from these categories seems to be Conclave in Adapted Screenplay.

Should these predictions prove out, TFF #51 films would win three of the five categories.

BAFTA AND TFF #51

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their winners on Sunday.  each with Conclave leading the way with four wins including Best Film. Four TFF #51 films landed a least two BAFTAs including Conclave with four wins including Best Film.

Here's the rundown of  TFF #51 films' BAFTA wins:

Conclave: Best Film, Best British Film, Adapted Screenplay and Editing.  

Anora: Best Actress (Madison) and Casting.

Emilia Perez: Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Supporting Actress (Saldana).

A Real Pain: Best Supporting Actor (Culkin) and Original Screenplay.

Among non-TFF films The Brutalist had four wins as well for Best Direction, Actor (Brody), Cinematography and Score.

The Conclave win for Best Film gives it a little life for Oscar night.  Wins for Saldana and Culkin cement their status for Supporting Oscars and all of the hubbub regarding Emilia Perez didn't seem to slow it down in London.

TFF #51 films were nominated for a total of  45 awards.

WRITERS' GUILD AND TFF #51

Two TFF #51 films picked up Writers' Guild of America awards on Saturday night.  Sean Baker won for Anora as Best Original Screenplay while RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes shared the trophy for Nickel Boys as Best Adapted Screenplay.

These results are likely indicative of an Anora Oscar win in two weeks.  The Nickel Boys win is likely less predictive as Conclave was ineligible under WGA rules.  Most of the Oscar prediction community thinks Conclave is the favorite.  Currently 29 out of the 34 Gold Derby experts are predicting Conclave to pick up the Oscar win.

Here is the complete list of winners from the WGA.

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One Million!!!!! / MTFB Oscar Update: The Big Eight / BAFTA and TFF / Interviews and Profiles

ONE MILLION!!!!!

Over the just-ended weekend MTFB recorded its one-millionth view.  1,000,000.  That's insane for a little blog that is the "nicheiest" of niche blogs.  I'll likely have a little more to say about the milestone in Thursday's post. 

One Million...wow!

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: THE BIG EIGHT

We're down to less than three weeks before they open the envelopes on March 10th.  Here's is my latest update on the predicted winners in the "Big Eight" of the 23 Oscar categories. Today's listing also includes a film/performers previous MTFB rank to the right in parentheses.  TFF films are indicated in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Oppenheimer (1)

2) Poor Things (3)

3) The Holdovers (2)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (6)

5) Barbie (5)

6) Anatomy of a Fall (7)

7) American Fiction (4)

8) The Zone of Interest (8)

9) Maestro (9)

10) Past Lives (10)

BEST DIRECTION

1) Christopher Nolan/Oppenheimer (1)

2) Yorgos Lanthimos/Poor Things (2)

3) Martin Scorsese/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

4) Jonathan Glazer/The Zone of Interest (5)

5) Justine Triet/Anatomy of a Fall (4)

BEST ACTRESS

1) Lily Gladstone/Killers of the Flower Moon (1)

2) Emma Stone/Poor Things (2)

3) Sandra Huller/Anatomy of a Fall (3)

4) Annette Bening/Nyad (4)

5) Carey Mulligan/Maestro (5)

BEST ACTOR

1) Paul Giamatti/The Holdovers (1)

2) Cillian Murphy/Oppenheimer (2)

3) Bradley Cooper/Maestro (3)

4) Jeffrey Wright/American Fiction (4)

5) Colman Domingo/Rustin (5)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Da'Vine Joy Randolph/The Holdovers (1)

2) Emily Blunt/Oppenheimer (2)

3) Danielle Brooks/The Color Purple 95)

4) America Ferrera/Barbie (4)

5) Jodie Foster/Nyad (3)

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Robert Downey, Jr./Oppenheimer (1)

2) Ryan Gosling/Barbie (2)

3) Mark Ruffalo/Poor Things (4)

4) Robert DeNiro/Killers of the Flower Moon (3)

5) Sterling K. Brown/American Fiction (5)

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Oppenheimer (3)

2) Barbie (1)

3) American Fiction (2)

4) Poor Things (4)

5) The Zone of Interest (5)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Anatomy of a Fall (1)

2) The Holdovers (2)

3) Past Lives (3)

4) Maestro (4)

5) May December (5)

COMMENTS:

With less than three weeks to go and final Oscar voting starting on Thursday, four of these categories feel all but locked: Picture (Oppy), Director (Nolan/Oppy), Supporting Acting (Randolph/The Holdovers and Downey, Jr./Oppy).

The lead acting categories are very tight.  Gladstone and Stone are neck and neck as far as I can tell.  Giamatti and Murphy are also close. Adapted Screenplay appears to be a three horse race between Oppenheimer/Barbie/American Fiction.  Original Screenplay is also close, though Anatomy of a Fall seems to have the edge at the moment.  It will be interesting to see if the BAFTA (see below), SAG, PGA, Independent Spirit and WGA nomination results have moved the needle for any of these eight categories when we come back to them in the MTFB post on Feb. 29th.

If I'm 100% accurate TFF films will win three of these categories on Oscar night: Actress, Actor and Original Screenplay.

BAFTA AND TFF

Oppenheimer had a great British evening on Sunday as the film led all others with seven BAFTA  wins including Best Pic, Direction and Actor.

But films that played TFF also did well in the Brits' estimation with 11 total wins on the night.

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things was the #2 winner in total with five BAFTAs: Best Actress, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.

Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest landed three BAFTAs: Best British Film, Best Film Not in the English Language and Sound.

And Alexander Payne's The Holdovers earned two BAFTAs for Best Supporting Actress and Best Casting.

Justine Triet's Anatomy of a Fall was the other TFF film with BAFTA success getting the award for Best Original Screenplay.

Both Barbie and Killers of the Flower Moon missed winning any awards from BAFTA.

Here's a complete list of BAFTA winners from Entertainment Weekly.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from Variety.

Da'Vine Joy Randolph for The Holdovers from Deadline.

Producer Mark Johnson for The Holdovers from Deadline.

Andrew Scott, Paul Mescal, Claire Foy and Andrew Haigh for All of Us Strangers from Pop Culture Confidential.

Directors Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi and Jimmy Chin for Nyad from Awards Radar.

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BAFTA Nominations Announced / MTFB Oscar Update: Costumes. Makeup/Hair and Shorts / Visiting the Vault / Interviews and Profiles

BAFTA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

 TFF films earned a combined total of 49 nominations from the British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) this morning.  Leading the way for TFF was Poor Things with 11.  Here's the breakdown of all TFF film nominations:

Poor Things (11): Best Film, Outstanding British Film, Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design and Visual Effects.

The Zone of Interest (9): Outstanding British Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Supporting Actress,  Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design and Sound.

Anatomy of a Fall (7): Best Film, Best Film Not in the English Language, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay, Editing and Casting.

The Holdovers (7): Best Film, Direction, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Casting.

All of Us Strangers (6): Outstanding British Film, Best Direction, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Casting.

Saltburn (5): Outstanding British Film, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Score.

Rustin (1): Best Actor.

American Symphony (1): Best Documentary.

Beyond Utopia (1): Best Documentary.

Bobi Wine: The People's President (1): Best Debut

Oppenhiemer led all films with 14 nominations.

Here's the link to the complete list of nominees from BAFTA.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR AND COSTUMES PLUS FIRST PREDICTIONS FOR SHORTS

In today's MTFB Oscar Update I update predictions for the Makeup/Hair and Costume categories as well as the Shorts. Their previous rank appears in parentheses to the right of the title.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

COSTUMES 

1) Barbie (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

4) Maestro (5)

5) Oppenheimer (-)

Alternates: Napoleon, The Color Purple and Wonka.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Maestro (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (3)

4) Golda (-)

5) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

Alternates: Society of the Snow, Napoleon and Ferrari.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) Once Upon a Studio (2)

2) War Is Over Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko (1)

3) Wild Summon (-)

4) Letter to a Pig (-)

5) I'm Hip (3)

Alternates: Koerkerter, Pete, Eeva.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Life of Henry Sugar (1)

2) The Anne Frank Gift Shop (-)

3) Knight of Fortune (5)

4) Strange Way of Life (2)

5) The After (4)

Alternates: Invisible Border, Good Boy and The One Note Man.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop (1)

2) The ABCs of Book Banning (3)

3) Deciding Vote (5)

4) Last Song from Kabul (2)

5) The Barber of Little Rock (4)

Alternates: Camp Courage, Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games and Oasis.

As of this morning's post I am predicting TFF films with a total of 35 nominations with another 15 "alternates".  Here's the TFF breakdown:

Poor Things (12 noms and one alternate) : Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.  The alternate is a second Supporting Actor nomination for Willem Dafoe.

The Zone of Interest (Six noms and one alternate): Best Picture, Direction, International Film, Cinematography, Score and Sound.  The alternates is Huller for Adapted Screenplay.

The Holdovers (Five noms and two alternatives): Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress, Editing and Original Screenplay.  Alternates are for Direction, Supporting Actor.

Anatomy of a Fall (Three noms and one alternate):Best Picture, Actress and Original Screenplay and the alternate is for Editing.

American Symphony (Two noms): Best Doc feature and Song.

Nyad (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Supporting Actress with a Best Actress alternate.

Rustin (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Best Song with an alternate possibility for Best Actor.

Saltburn is an alternate in four categories: Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay and Cinematography.

All of Us Strangers is an alternate in two categories: Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

In addition to The Zone of Interest in International Feature, I'm predicting three other TFF films to be nominated in that category: The Taste of Things, The Teachers' Lounge and Fallen Leaves.  Totem and Perfect Days could also make it into the category.  Were it not for Society of the Snow I'd likely be predicting that all five nominees for International Feature would be TFF films.

In Documentary Feature, in addition to American Symphony, I have Beyond Utopia making it into the list of nominees.

And finally, in the Shorts categories I have three TFF films being nominated as you can see above: Strange Way of Life, The Last Repair Shop and Last Song from Kabul.

In terms of other predictions not TFF films I have Oppenheimer leading the pack with 13 nominations.  

Other non-TFF films with double nomination totals predicted:  Killers of the Flower Moon with 12 and Barbie with 11.  Maestro is now predicted for nine nominations.

Final MTFB Oscar nomination predictions are coming on Monday!

VISITING THE VAULT

Close readers of MTFB know that I keep a file labeled "Future Telluride" on my laptop.  As I see films announced that sound like they might have a TFF in their future, I put the article in that folder as a method of keeping track of those films.  

Each year I re-visit and cull the films that either did make it to TFF or were released having not made it to Southwest Colorado.  I think it's kind of fun to take stock of what was in there that made it to the most recent TFF and when they first went into the folder.

After this year's sorting, I found that I had 11 films that screened in TFF #50 that had been in the folder.  Here they are and the date I first saved them for future reference:

The Zone of Interest-July 11, 2018

Occupied City-Jan. 9, 2019

Tuesday-May 19, 2021

Poor Things-May 21, 2021

Nyad- Jan. 20, 2022

The Royal Hotel-April 30, 2022

The Promised Land- May 25, 2022

Fallen Leaves- June 10, 2022

All of Us Strangers- June 30, 2022

Strange Way of Life-July 2, 2022

The Bikeriders-August 5, 2022

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Emerald Fennell and Rosamund Pike for Saltburn from Awards Daily.

Behind the Scenes of The Holdovers from The Hollywood Reporter.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Makeup/Hair and Costumes Plus First Predictions for Shorts / Coming Up... / Interviews and Profiles: Giamatti, Glazer and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: MAKEUP/HAIR AND COSTUMES PLUS FIRST PREDICTIONS FOR SHORTS

In today's MTFB Oscar Update I update predictions for the Makeup/Hair and Costume categories as well as adding first predictions for the Shorts.  For Makeup/Hair their previous rank appears in parentheses to the right of the title.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

COSTUMES (last predicted on Dec. 21st)

1) Barbie (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Killers of the Flower Moon (4)

4) The Color Purple (3)

5) Maestro (5)

Alternates: Oppenheimer, Napoleon and Wonka.

MAKEUP AND HAIR

1) Maestro (1)

2) Poor Things (2)

3) Oppenheimer (-)

4) Killers of the Flower Moon (-)

5) Society of the Snow (-)

Alternates: Golda, Napoleon and Ferrari.

ANIMATED SHORT

1) War Is Over Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko

2) Once upon a Studio

3) I'm Hip

4) A Kind of Testament

5) Eeva

Alternates: Boom, Wild Summon and Letter to a Pig.

LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) The Wonderful Life of Henry Sugar

2) Strange Way of Life

3) Good Boy

4) The After

5) Knight of Fortune

Alternates: The Anne Frank Gift Shop, Yellow and Invincible.

DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Last Repair Shop

2) Last Song from Kabul

3) The ABCs of Book Banning

4) The Barber of Little Rock

5) Deciding Vote

Alternates: Oasis, Camp Courage and Black Girls Play: The Story of Hand Games.

As of this morning's post I am predicting TFF films with a total of 36 nominations with another 16 "alternates".  Here's the TFF breakdown:

Poor Things (11 noms and one alternate) : Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor (Ruffalo), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects and Makeup/Hair.  The alternate is a second Supporting Actor nomination for Willem Dafoe.

The Zone of Interest (Six noms and two alternates): Best Picture, Direction, International Film, Cinematography, Score and Sound.  Alternates are Huller for Supporting Actress and Adapted Screenplay.

The Holdovers (Four noms and three alternatives): Best Picture, Actor, Supporting Actress and Original Screenplay.  Alternates are for Direction, Supporting Actor and Editing.

Anatomy of a Fall (Three noms and one alternate):Best Picture, Actress and Original Screenplay and the alternate is for Original Screenplay.

American Symphony (Two noms): Best Doc feature and Song.

All of Us Strangers (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Adapted Screenplay and a Best Actor alternate.

Nyad (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Supporting Actress with a Best Actress alternate.

Rustin (One nom and one alternate): The nom for Best Song with an alternate possibility for Best Actor.

In addition to The Zone of Interest in International Feature I'm predicting three other TFF films to be nominated in that category: The Taste of Things, The Teachers' Lounge and Fallen Leaves.  Totem and Perfect Days could also make it into the category.  Were it not for Society of the Snow I'd likely be predicting that all five nominees for International Feature would be TFF films.

In Documentary feature, in addition to American Symphony, I have Beyond Utopia making it into the list of nominees.

And finally, in the Shorts categories I have three TFF films being nominated as you can see above: Strange Way of Life, The Last Repair Shop and Last Song from Kabul.

In terms of other predictions not TFF films I have Killers of the Flower Moon leading the pack with 12 nominations.  Could KOTFM replicate The Irishman and have this many nominations and not win any?  Percentages right now suggest that is unlikely.  Lily Gladstone isn't certain to win Best Actress but she is certainly the frontrunner.  That said, she could be the only winner for KOTFM on Oscar night.

Other non-TFF films with double nomination totals predicted:  Oppenheimer with 11 and Barbie with 10 though Barbie could add up to three additional nominations.  Maestro is now predicted for seven  nominations with a shot at two others.

COMING UP...

It's a big Oscar pre-cursor period between now and MTFB's next post on Monday.  

Tomorrow the BAFTA longlists are released.

Saturday we'll see the National Society of Film Critics announce the top three vote getters in each of 10 categories.

And on Sunday The Golden Globes announce their winners.

I'll have a lot to talk about in Monday's post.

INTERVIEWS AND PROFILES

Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers from Indiewire.

Dominic Sessa for The Holdovers from The Playlist.

Alma Poysti for Fallen Leaves from Vanity Fair.

Jonathan Glazer for The Zone of Interest from Indiewire.

Andrew Haigh for All of Us Strangers from Awards Radar.

Claire Foy for All of Us Strangers from Awards Radar.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / BAFTA Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Nighy and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE

                                              

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Original Score, Original Song and Sound.   These were last predicted on Jan. 5th.  Past ranking is to the right in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

FINAL MTFB OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS WILL BE IN MONDAY'S POST FOR ALL 23 CATEGORIES!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (-)

6) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (5)

7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (6)

Out: Jesse Buckley/Women Talking

Should be in the mix: Buckley, Foy, McCarthy and Ivey from Women Talking

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

5) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (4)

6) Brad Pitt/Babylon (6)

7) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (7)

Should be in the mix: Whishaw /Women Talking, Strong/Armageddon Time

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) Babylon (4)

3) Women Talking (2)

4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (3)

5) The Banshees of Inisherin (5)

6) The Woman King (6)

7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (2)

2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (3)

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (4)

5) New Body Rhumba/White Noise (7)

6) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing (6)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Avatar: The Way of Water (2)

3) Elvis (3) 

4) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

5) The Batman (6)

6) Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

7) Babylon (5)

BAFTA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominees for film excellence this morning.  Seven TFF films earned a total of 19 nominations with Todd Field's TAR leading the wat for films from The SHOW with five nominations.  Here's the listing:

TAR (5): Best Film, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett, Original Screenplay and Sound.

Living (4): Best British Film, Actor/Nighy, Adapted Screenplay and Rising Star/Wood.

Aftersun (4): Best British Film, Debut/Wells, Actor/Mescal and Casting.

Empire of Light (3): Best British Film, Best Supporting Actor/Ward and Cinematography.

The Wonder (1): Best British Film

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Film

Edward Bergers' All Quiet on the Western Front earned the most nominations of any film with 14.

Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominees.

VISITATIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy in Variety.

MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON: Dean Fleischer Camp and Kirsten Lepore in Vanity Fair.

HOLY SPIDER: Ali Abbasi and Ana Lily Amirpour in Variety.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Score, Song and More / Awards Weekend-Two Weeks from Oscar: BAFTA, DGA and Critics Choice

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: SCORE, SONG AND MORE

Here's your latest update of feature Oscar winners in the categories of Score, Song, Costume, Visual Effects, Sound and Makeup/Hair.  The last predictions for these categories was posted on Mar. 3rd.  As always, TFF #48 films are Bold.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) Dune

2) The Power of the Dog

3) Encanto

4) Don't Look Up

5) Parallel Mothers

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) No Time to Die/No Time to Die

2) Dos Oruguitas/Encanto

3) Be Alive/King Richard

4) Down to Joy/Belfast

5) Somehow You Do/Four Good Days

BEST COSTUMES

1) Cruella

2) Dune

3) Nightmare Alley

4) West Side Story

5) Cyrano

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune

2) Spiderman: No Way Home

3) No Time to Die

4) Shang Chi

5) Free Guy

BEST SOUND

1) Dune

2) No Time to Die

3) West Side Story

4) The Power of the Dog

5) Belfast

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Eyes of Tammy Faye

2) Dune

3) Coming 2 America

4) Cruella

5) House of Gucci

AWARDS WEEKEND-TWO WEEKS FROM OSCAR

The last 48 hours held a cascade of film awards.  BAFTA, DGA and The Critics' Choice Awards all landed.  here's the lowdown on each especially how they pertained to TFF #48 films:

BAFTA- The British Association of Film and Television Arts.  From TFF #48, The Power of the Dog won Best Film and Best Direction (Jane Campion).  Belfast won Best British Film and Will Smith won Best Actor for King Richard.  TFF #47's After Love won for Best Actress with Joanna Scanlan taking that prize.

All of the BAFTA winner are here from the official BAFTA site.

THE CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS:

The CCAs where announced last night and here's the rundown on TFF #48 films:

The Power of the Dog won four: Picture, Director (Campion), Adapted Screenplay and Cinematography.

Belfast won three: Best Ensemble, Best Original Screenplay and Best Young Actor/Actress (Jude Hill)

King Richard's Will Smith won Best Actress.

The Critics Choice Awards full winners are here from Variety.

DIRECTORS GUILD OF AMERICA

The Directors Guild of America awarded Jane Campion Best Director of a Feature Film for TFF #48 SHOW pony The Power of the Dog.  Additionally Maggie Gyllenhaal was named winner for Best First Feature for TFF #48 entrant The Lost Daughter.  

In Telluride-adjacent DGA news. this year's Guest Director and Shorts programmer Barry Jenkins won for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in Movies for Television and Limited Series.

The complete DGA winners list plus commentary is linked here from The Hollywood Reporter.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays and More / BAFTA Nominations Announced

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE

Here are the latest nomination predictions for these five categories.  These were last predicted on Jan. 20th.  TFF #48 films are indicated in Bold.  The film's previous ranking is indicated to the right in parentheses.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) Belfast (1)

2) Licorice Pizza (2)

3) Don't Look Up (3)

4) King Richard (4)

5) Being the Ricardos (5)

Alternates: Parallel Mothers and The French Dispatch

ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) The Power of the Dog (1)

2) The Lost Daughter (2)

3) West Side Story (4)

4) CODA (3)

5) Drive My Car (5)

Alternates: Dune and The Tragedy of Macbeth

VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune (1)

2) Spiderman: No Way Home (2)

3) The Matrix Resurrections (4)

4) No Time to Die (3)

5) Shang Chi and The Legend of the Ten Rings (5)

Alternates: Godzilla vs. King Kong and Free Guy

SOUND

1) Dune (1)

2) West Side Story (2)

3) No Time to Die (3)

4) Spiderman: No Way Home (5)

5) The Power of the Dog (Alt.)

Alternates: The Matrix Resurrections and Belfast

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Dune (1)

2) Cruella (2)

3) House of Gucci (3)

4) The Eyes of Tammy Faye (4)

5) Coming 2 America (5) 

Alternates: No Time to Die and West Side Story

My final nomination predictions for all categories will be up Monday and I will have a special post on Tuesday after the Oscar nominations are announced.

BAFTA NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

The British Association of Film and Television Arts announced their nominees today.  It's the last major "precursor" prior to Tuesday morning's Oscar announcement.  An astonishing 13 films from TFF #48 and one form TFF #47 were nominated for at least one BAFTA award this morning.  The Power of the Dog had the second most nominations overall with eight (Dune led all films with 11) and was the most nominated Telluride film.  Here's the rundown of what/who was nominated that played at The SHOW:

The Power of the Dog-8- Best Film, Direction (Campion), Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Supporting Actor (Plemons), Adapted Screenplay, Score and Cinematography.

Belfast-6- Best Film, Best British Film, Supporting Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Original Screenplay, Editing.

Cyrano-4- Best British Film, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair

King Richard-4- Actor (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Original Screenplay and Casting.

The French Dispatch-3- Score, Production Design and Casting.

Almost Love (from TFF #47)-3- Best British Film, Debut (Khan) Direction (Khan)

The Lost Daughter-2- Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress (Buckley).

Flee-2- Best Film Not in the English Language and Best Animated Film.

Hand of God-2- Best Film Not in the English Language and Casting.

C'mon C'mon-1-Supporting Actor (Norman).

Petit Maman-1- Best Film Not in the English Language.

Becoming Cousteau-1- Documentary.

Cow-1- Documentary.

The Rescue-1- Documentary.

The complete listing of BAFTA nominees is linked here from Variety.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Lead Acting and More Updated / SAG Nominations and TFF #48 / BAFTA Longlist and TFF #48

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: LEAD ACTORS AND MORE UPDATED

Here's an update for my predictions of  the lead acting categories, cinematography, editing and production design for the 94th Academy Awards.  As always, TFF #48 films/performers are in Bold. The previous position for these predictions is indicated to the right in parentheses.  These categories were last predicted on Dec. 30th.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Kristen Stewart/Spencer (1)

2) Nicole Kidman/Being the Ricardos (2)

3) Olivia Colman/The Lost Daughter (4)

4) Jessica Chastain/The Eyes of Tammy Faye (3)

5) Lady Gaga/House of Gucci (5)

Alternates: Alana Haim/Licorice Pizza and Rachel Zegler/West Side Story

BEST ACTOR

1) Will Smith/King Richard (1)

2) Benedict Cumberbatch/The Power of the Dog (2)

3) Andrew Garfield/tick, tick...BOOM (3)

4)Denzel Washington/The Tragedy of Macbeth (4)

5) Peter Dinklage/Cyrano (5)

Alternates: Leonardo DiCaprio/Don't Look Up and Nicolas Cage/Pig

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune (1)

2) The Power of the Dog (2)

3) West Side Story (3)

4) The Tragedy of Macbeth (5)

5) Belfast (4)

Alternates: Nightmare Alley and Spencer

BEST EDITING

1) Dune (1)

2) Belfast (2)

3) West Side Story (4)

4) The Power of the Dog (3)

5) Licorice Pizza (5)

Alternates: Don't look Up and King Richard

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune (1)

2) Nightmare Alley (2)

3) West Side Story (3)

4) Belfast (5)

5) The French Dispatch (4)

Alternates: The Tragedy of Macbeth and Cyrano

SCREEN ACTORS GUILD NOMINATIONS AND TFF #48

The Screen Actors Guild announced nominees for their prizes yesterday.  TFF #48 films fared as follows:

Belfast: Best Cast and Supporting Actress Caitriona Balfe

King Richard: Best Cast and Lead Actor Will Smith

The Power of the Dog: Best Lead Actor Benedict Cumberbatch, Supporting Actress Kirsten Dunst and Supporting Actor Kodi Smit-McPhee

The Lost Daughter: Lead Actress Olivia Colman

Surprises:

No Best Cast nomination for The Power of the Dog despite a leading three nominations in the individual acting categories.

No Kristen Stewart Best Actress nomination for Spencer

Strong support for House of Gucci with a Best Cast nomination and individual nods for Lady Gaga and Jared Leto.

Don't Look Up gets a Best Cast nomination but not a single individual nomination.

West Side Story getting a single individual nomination for Ariana De Bose and no Best Cast nomination.

Here's the link to the entire list of SAG-Aftra nominees.

BAFTA LONG LIST AND TFF #48

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts announced their long lists for each competitive film category yesterday.  The longlists establish what films are still alive for actual BAFTA nominations.  Here's how TFF #48 films fared.  Total 

Belfast (14): Best Film, Best British Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actress (Balfe), Supporting Actress (Dench), Supporting Actor (Hinds), Supporting Actor (Dornan), Casting, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Production Design and Sound.

The Power of the Dog (14): Best Film, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Cumberbatch), Supporting Actress (Dunst), Supporting Actor (Smit-McPhee), Supporting Actor (Plemons), Costumes, Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Score, Production Design and Sound.

The French Dispatch (11): Best Film, Original Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Del Toro), Cinematography, Costumes, Editing, Makeup/Hair, Score, Production Design, Visual Effects and Sound.

The Lost Daughter (8): Best Film, Direction, Adapted Screenplay, Actress (Colman), Supporting Actress (Buckley), Costumes, Editing  and Score.

King Richard (7): Best Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actor (Smith), Supporting Actress (Ellis), Casting and Score.

Cyrano (7): Outstanding British Film, Adapted Screenplay, Actor (Dinklage), Cinematography, Costumes, Makeup/Hair and Production Design.

The Electrical Life of Louis Wain (5): Outstanding British Film, Costumes, Makeup/Hair, Score and Production Design

The Hand of God (5): Best Non-English Language Film, Direction, Original Screenplay, Casting and Editing.

Spencer (4); Outstanding British Film, Actress (Stewart), Costumes and Score.

C'mon C'mon (4): Original Screenplay, Actor (Phoenix), Supporting Actor (Norman) and Cinematography

Petite Maman (3); Best Non-English Language Film, Direction and Original Screenplay.

Flee (3): Best Non-English Language Film, Animated Feature and Documentary Feature.

Single mentions for:

The Card Counter: Original Screenplay

The Duke: Original Screenplay

A Hero: Best Non-English Language Film

Encounter: Best Actor (Ahmed)

Becoming Cousteau: Best Documentary Feature

Cow: Best Documentary Feature

The Real Charlie Chaplin: Best Documentary Feature

The Rescue: Best Documentary Feature

The Velvet Underground: Best Documentary Feature

TFF #47 films on the longlist were

After Love (6): Outstanding British Film, Outstanding Debut, Direction, Original Screenplay, Actress (Scanlan) and Casting.

Also a single mention for First Cow for Direction.

(***The Duke was also listed as a TFF #47 selection)

All told 23 feature films from the last two SHOWS are still in the hunt for BAFTA recognition.  BBAFTA will announce the nominees on February 3rd.

The complete list of the BAFTA longlist is linked here.

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Oscar Winners Predix #4: Lead Acting, Score, Song and Sound / DGA Awards Some Telluride Players / Speaking of Directors / BAFTA Winners

 OSCAR PREDIX #4: LEADING ACTOR, SCORE, SONG AND SOUND

I'm back predicting the winners of this year's Oscars with less than two weeks left until the awards are passed out.  Today I am updating the lead acting categories as well as predicting the winners for Score, Song and Sound for the first time since nominations were announced.  As always TFF #47 film are in Bold.

BEST ACTRESS

1) Carey Mulligan/Promising Young Woman

2) Viola Davis/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

3) Frances McDormand/Nomadland

4) Andra Day/The United States vs. Billie Holiday

5) Vanessa Kirby/Pieces of a Woman

Note: This race is really tight, so it seems, with Viola Davis and Carey Mulligan neck and neck and just a hair in front of Frances McDormand and Andra Day.  I have Mulligan in the top spot but that could change by Oscar morning when I will be posting my final predictions in all 23 categories.

BEST ACTOR

1) Chadwick Boseman/Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

2) Anthony Hopkins/The Father

3) Riz Ahmed/Sound of Metal

4) Steven Yeun/Minari

5) Gary Oldman/Mank

Note: Boseman stills seems to be the easy choice here but Hopkins BAFTA win yesterday does give one a little bit of a pause.

BEST SCORE

1) Soul

2) Mank

3) Minari

4) News of the World

5) Da 5 Bloods

Note: Soul is a prohibitive favorite.

BEST SONG

1) Speak Now/One Night in Miami

2) Io Si (Seen)/The Life Ahead

3) Fight for You/Judas and the Black Messiah

4) Husavik/Eurovision 

5) Hear My Voice/The Trial of the Chicago 7

Note: A fairly competitive category with Speak Now and Io Si (Seen) very close and a win for either Fight for You not out of the question.

BEST SOUND

1) Sound of Metal

2) News of the World

3) Mank

4) Soul

5) Greyhound

Note: Sound of Metal is a prohibitive favorite.

THE DIRECTORS GUILD AWARDS SOME TELLURIDE PLAYERS

The Directors Guild of America named their winners for excellence for 2020/21 and a couple of the big awards went to directors who would have been in Telluride last September had the fest been able to occur.

Chloe Zhao was named Best Director for a feature film for Nomadland and Michael and Gregory Kershaw were named Best Director for The Truffle Hunters.  Both films were listed by the Telluride Film Festival as films that would have played at the 47th edition.

The complete list of winners can be found here at the DGA website.

SPEAKING OF DIRECTORS

Jane Campion (via Variety)

As I was writing about the DGA results, I saw that Variety's Clayton Davis had re-posted an article named "Directors Whose Work We're Excited to See in 2021".  So, here's the f=directors from that list that have been to Telluride before and the projects that we expect to appear before the end of the year:

Andrea Arnold/Cow

Jane Campion/The Power of the Dog

Joel Coen/The Tragedy of MacBeth

Guillermo Del Toro/Nightmare Alley

Tom McCarthy/Stillwater

Denis Villenueve/Dune

Chloe Zhao/The Eternals

The complete list and more is linked here.

BAFTA WINNERS

Nomadland had a really fine night last night at the awards ceremony for the British Academy of Television Arts and Sciences winning four of the organizations Golden Masks.

Chloe Zhao's examination of the wanderers that make up a large community of R.V. dwellers in the American west won Best Picture as well Zhao for Best Director, Frances McDormand for Best Actress and Best Cinematography.

Florian Zeller's The Father also pulled off a major upset and a minor upset.  Anthony Hopkins upset Chadwick Boseman in the Best Actor category while Zeller and Christopher Hampton won Best Adapted Screenplay over Zhao for her Nomadland screenplay.

You can find the complete listing of BAFTA winners here from The Hollywood Reporter.

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