MTFB OSCAR SPECIAL: FINAL NOMINATION PREDICTIONS
Well, here we are...months removed from the close of TFF #51 and now down to less than 24 hours until the big reveal of nominees for the 97th Academy Awards. It could be a history making day for film from Telluride and the Oscars. The largest number of nominees in a single year that have come from TFF films is 35 which has happened thrice with TFF films from 2016, 2021 and 2023 (those are the years of the fest). TFF could see 35+ nominations for films that screened there by the end of the announcement tomorrow morning. Exciting stuff...
So, drumroll please, here are the MTFB final Oscar nomination predictions (as always, TFF films are in Bold. The film's previous rank is to the right in parentheses).
BEST PICTURE
1) Conclave
2) Emilia Perez
3) The Brutalist
4) Anora
5) A Complete Unknown
6) Wicked
7) Dune: Part Two
8) A Real Pain
9) The Substance
10) Sing Sing
Others: September 5, Nickel Boys and All We Imagine as Light.
Comment: It looks like TFF films will land four of the 10 slots which ties a record for TFF. However, if any of the "Other" possibilities sneak in over Sing Sing or The Substance, a new record could be set. I'd really love it if September 5 could slide in.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
2) Sean Baker/Anora
3) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez
4) Edward Berger/Conclave
5) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance
Others: James Mangold/ A Complete Unknown, RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys and Payal Kapadia/All We Imagine as Light.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Demi Moore/The Substance
2) Mikey Madison/Anora
3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked
5) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here
Others: Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths, Pamela Anderson/The Last Showgirl and Angelina Jolie/Maria.
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist
2) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave
3) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown
4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing
5) Daniel Craig/Queer
Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Hugh Grant/Heretic and Jesse Eisenberg/A Real Pain.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez
2) Ariana Grande-Butera/Wicked
3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave
4) Jamie Lee Curtis/The Last Showgirl
5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist
Others: Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown, Margaret Qualley/The Substance and Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain
2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown
3) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist
4) Yura Borisov/Anora
5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice
Others: Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing, Denzel Washington/Gladiator II and Stanley Tucci/Conclave.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave
2) Emilia Perez
3) Nickel Boys
4) A Complete Unknown
5) Sing Sing
Others: Dune: Part Two, Wicked and Hit Man.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora
2) The Brutalist
3) A Real Pain
4) The Substance
5) September 5
Others: Hard Truths, Challengers and All We Imagine as Light.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) Emilia Perez
2) I'm Still Here
3) The Seed of the Sacred Fig
4) Kneecap
5) The Girl with the Needle
Others: Flow, Vermiglio and Dahomey.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
1) The Wild Robot
2) Flow
3) Inside Out 2
4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl
5) Memoir of a Snail
Others: Moana 2, Piece by Piece and Chicken for Linda.
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) No Other Land
2) Daughters
3) Sugarcane
4) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
5) Black Box Diaries
Others: Porcelain War, Dahomey and Will and Harper.
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
1) The Brutalist
2) Conclave
3) Nosferatu
4) Dune: Part Two
5) Maria
Others: Emilia Perez, Nickel Boys and A Complete Unknown.
BEST EDITING
1) Conclave
2) Dune: Part Two
3) Anora
4) Emilia Perez
5) The Brutalist
Others: September 5, Wicked and Challengers.
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
1) Wicked
2) The Brutalist
3) Dune: Part Two
4) Nosferatu
5) Conclave
Others: Gladiator II, A Complete Unknown and The Substance.
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
1) The Brutalist
2) Conclave
3) Emilia Perez
4) The Wild Robot
5) Challengers
Others: Blitz, Wicked and The Room Next Door.
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
1) El Mal/Emilia Perez
2) Kiss the Sky/The Wild Robot
3) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight
4) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez
5) Compress/Repress/Challengers
Others: Sick in the Head/Kneecap, Like a Bird/Sing Sing and Never Too Late/Never Too Late.
BEST SOUND DESIGN
1) Dune: Part Two
2) Wicked
3) A Complete Unknown
4) Emilia Perez
5) Gladiator II
Others: Blitz, The Wild Robot and Deadpool and Wolverine.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked
2) Nosferatu
3) Dune: Part Two
4) Conclave
5) A Complete Unknown
Others: Gladiator II, Blitz and Maria.
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) The Substance
2) Wicked
3) Nosferatu
4) Emilia Perez
5) A Different Man
Others: Dune: Part Two, Beetlejuice Beetlejuice and The Apprentice.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune: Part Two
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3) Wicked
4) Better Man
5) Gladiator II
Others: Twisters, Alien: Romulus and Deadpool and Wolverine.
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) Once Upon a Time in Ukraine
2) Maykayla's Voice: A Letter to the World
3) I Am Ready, Warden
4) A Swim Lesson
5) Incident
Others: Death by Numbers, The Only Girl in the Orchestra and The Quilters.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1) A Bear Named Wotjek
2) Wander to Wonder
3) A Crab in the Pool
4) Beautiful Men
5) Yuck!
Others: Maybe Elephants, Me and In the Shadow of the Cypress.
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) The Man Who Could Not Remain Quiet
2) The Masterpiece
3) Ajuna
4) An Orange from Jaffa
5) Dovecote
Others: I am Not a Robot, Room Taken, Ice Cream Man.
If I'm 100% correct 14 TFF #51 films will earn 41 nominations:
Emilia Perez (12): Best Picture, International Feature, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Adapted Screenplay, Editing, Score, Song X2, Sound and Makeup/Hair.
Conclave (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Costumes.
Anora (6): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Supporting Actor (Borisov), Original Screenplay and Editing.
Nosferatu (4): Best Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes, Makeup/Hair.
A Real Pain (3): Best Picture, Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay.
The Wild Robot (3): Best Animated Film, Score and Song.
Single nominees:
September 5: Original Screenplay.
Nickel Boys: Adapted Screenplay.
Maria: Cinematography.
The Apprentice: Supporting Actor (Strong).
The Seed of the Sacred Fig: International Feature.
Memoir of a Snail: Animated Feature.
No Other Land: Documentary Feature.
Better Man: Visual Effects.
Beautiful Men: Animated Short.
A Swim Lesson: Documentary Short.
As regular readers know, my average on nominations is around 78% correct. Additionally, most years the sixth listed potential nominee picks up about 75% of the time.
Which leads to the list of other possible nominations that could land for TFF films as well:
Conclave: Supporting Actor (Tucci).
September 5: Picture, Editing.
Nickel Boys: Picture, Direction.
All We Imagine as Light: Picture, Direction, Original Screenplay.
Maria: Actress (Jolie).
The Apprentice: Actor (Stan), Makeup/Hair.
Will & Harper: Documentary.
And one other cool note...for the first time since I started doing this, TFF has a film nominated in every main category. Looking at the "Unofficial TFF Oscar History Page" here on the site, it shows that's never happened before.
Other non-TFF films expected to have a big morning:
The Brutalist (10): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Brody), Supporting Actress (Jones), Supporting Actor (Pearce), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Production Design.
Wicked (8): Best Picture, Actress (Erivo), Supporting Actress (Grande-Butera), Production Design, Costumes, Sound, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects.
Dune: Part Two (7): Best Picture, Cinematography, Editing, Costumes, Production Design, Sound and Visual Effects.
A Complete Unknown (6): Best Picture, Actor (Chalamet), Supporting Actor (Norton), Adapted Screenplay. Sound and Costumes.
The Substance (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Moore), Original Screenplay and Makeup/Hair.
Sing Sing (3): Best Picture, Actor (Domingo) and Adapted Screenplay.
The Wild Robot (3); Best Animated Feature, Score and Song.
Now...we wait...
