MTFB Special: Final Final Oscar Predictions

 MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):

Best Picture: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora.  Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance.  Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.  Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: A Real Pain.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.  Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.

Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War.  Possible Upset: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot.  Possible Upset: Flow.

Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu.

Best Editing: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Anora.

Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.

Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance.  Possible Upset: Wicked.

Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.

Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien.  Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)

Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!.  Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)

Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden.  Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

 

If I'm 100% accurate:

TFF films win eight Oscars:

Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.

My prediction success rate over the past several years:

2024: 19/23 82.6%

2023: 18/23 78.3% 

2022: 21/23 91.3% 

2021: 16/23 69.6% 

2020: 19/24 79.2% 

2019: 19/24 79.2% 

2018: 21/24 87.5% 

2017: 15/24 62.5% 

2016: 15/24 62.5% 

2015: 20/24 83.3% 

2014: 22/24 91.7% 

My lifetime batting average: 205/260.  Success rate: 78.9%.  Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!

 

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