Oscar Night and TFF #51

OSCAR NIGHT AND TFF #51

Here are your results from Oscar #97.  TFF #51 films are in Bold.

Best Picture: Anora. 

Best Direction: Sean Baker/Anora. 

Best Actress: Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  

Best Supporting Actress: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez. 

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain. 

Best Adapted Screenplay: Conclave. 

Best Original Screenplay: Anora.  

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: Flow.

Best Cinematography: The Brutalist.

Best Editing: Anora.

Best Original Score: The Brutalist. 

Best Original Song: El Mal/Emilia Perez. 

Best Production Design: Wicked.

Best Costume Design: Wicked. 

Best Makeup/Hair: The Substance.

Best Sound Design: Dune Part Two. 

Best Visual Effects: Dune Part Two.

Best Live Action Short: I Am Not a Robot.

Best Animated Short: In the Shadow of the Cypress.

Best Documentary Short: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

TYFF #51 films win 10 Oscars.

Anora (5): Best Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Supporting Actress, Song.

Conclave (1): Adapted Screenplay.

A Real Pain (1): Supporting Actor.

No Other Land: Documentary.

The Best Picture Oscar returns to Telluride with Anora.  It's the first TFF film to win Best Picture since 2021 and Nomadland. 

Anora was #3 on the People's Telluride poll with a 4.44 rating.  It was #1 among the Pros at 4.53.  Consequently it topped the TFF Composite poll with an 8.97 rating. That was good enough to put Anora in the All-Time Top Ten of the TFF Composite as well the All-time Top Ten of the Professionals.

MTFB goes 16 of 23 for a 69.6% success rate.  Missed all three shorts categories but was 80% on feature categories.  Among the categories I missed I had five of those seven listed as the possible "upsets".

More on Thursday.

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MTFB Special: Final Final Oscar Predictions

 MTFB SPECIAL: FINAL FINAL OSCAR PREDICITONS

Here's what I'm saying will happen tonight in all 23 Academy Awards categories (TTF #51 films in Bold):

Best Picture: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Direction: Winner: Sean Baker/Anora.  Possible Upset: Brady Corbet/The Brutalist

Best Actress: Winner: Demi Moore/The Substance.  Possible "Upset": Mikey Madison/Anora

Best Actor:  Winner: Adrien Brody/The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown.

Best Supporting Actress: Winner: Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: Ariana Grande/Wicked or Isabella Rossellini/Conclave.

Best Supporting Actor: Winner: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain.  Possible Upset: Edward Norton/ A Complete Unknown.

Best Adapted Screenplay: Winner: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Nickel Boys.

Best Original Screenplay: Winner: Anora.  Possible Upset: A Real Pain.

Best International Feature: Winner: I'm Still Here.  Possible Upset: Emilia Perez.

Best Documentary Feature: Winner: Porcelain War.  Possible Upset: No Other Land.

Best Animated Feature: winner: The Wild Robot.  Possible Upset: Flow.

Best Cinematography: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu.

Best Editing: Conclave.  Possible Upset: Anora.

Best Original Score: Winner: The Brutalist.  Possible Upset: Conclave.

Best Original Song: Winner: El Mal/Emilia Perez.  Possible Upset: The Journey/The Six Triple Eight.

Best Production Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: The Brutalist.

Best Costume Design: Winner: Wicked.  Possible Upset: Nosferatu or A Complete Unknown.

Best Makeup/Hair: Winner: The Substance.  Possible Upset: Wicked.

Best Sound Design: Winner: Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Wicked or A Complete Unknown.

Best Visual Effects: Winner Dune Part Two.  Possible Upset: Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes.

Best Live Action Short: Winner: A Lien.  Possible Upset: Anuja. (But who knows?)

Best Animated Short: Winner: Yuck!.  Possible Upset: Wander to Wonder. (But who knows?)

Best Documentary Short: Winner: I Am Ready Warden.  Possible Upset: The Only Girl in the Orchestra.

 

If I'm 100% accurate:

TFF films win eight Oscars:

Anora (3): Best Picture, Direction and Original Screnplay.

Conclave (2): Best Adapted Screenplay and Editing.

Emilia Perez (2): Best Supporting Actress and Song.

A Real Pain (1): Best Supporting Actor.

Other non-TFF films with multiple wins:

The Brutalist (3): Best Actor, Cinematography and Score.

The Substance (2): Best Actress and Makeup/Hair.

Wicked (2): Best Production Design and Costume Design.

Dune Part Two (2): Best Sound Design and Visual Effects.

My prediction success rate over the past several years:

2024: 19/23 82.6%

2023: 18/23 78.3% 

2022: 21/23 91.3% 

2021: 16/23 69.6% 

2020: 19/24 79.2% 

2019: 19/24 79.2% 

2018: 21/24 87.5% 

2017: 15/24 62.5% 

2016: 15/24 62.5% 

2015: 20/24 83.3% 

2014: 22/24 91.7% 

My lifetime batting average: 205/260.  Success rate: 78.9%.  Let's see what happens tonight!!!!!

 

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TFF and Oscar / New Posters for Anora and Zurawski v. Texas / Interviews and Profiles: Will Farrell, Jason Reitman, Mikey Madison, Sean Baker and More

TFF AND OSCAR

As we turn the corner after The SHOW to what films from The SHOW will make an impact on the awards season, I thought it would behoove us to look back at the history of the fest and its Oscar players.  So I went back to 2009, the year that the new expanded list of nominees came into effect so that there were more than five Best Picture nominees each year.

One of the reasons I decided to do that is that early Oscar BP lists are indicating that 2024 might be a record year for films that played Telluride.  Since 2009 the largest number of TFF films nominated for Best Picture in a single year is four and that has happened twice.  This year, at least as the early predictions are showing, TFF #51 almost certainly will be the third time that four films from the best will be nominated.  But, there is a reasonable chance that there will be five films among the ten that get the noms.

Here's the history of TFF Best Picture nominees since 2009 (* indicates Best Picture winner):

2009 (2)- An Education, Up in the Air

2010 (3)- The King's Speech*, Black Swan, 127 Hours

2011 (2)- The Artist*, The Descendants

2012 (2)- Argo*, Amour

2013 (3)- 12 Years a Slave*, Gravity, Nebraska

2014 (2)- Birdman*, The Imitation Game

2015 (2)- Spotlight*, Room

2016 (4)- Moonlight*, Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea

2017 (3)- The Shape of Water*, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird

2018 (2)- The Favourite, Roma

2019 (3)- Parasite*, Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story

2020 (2)- Nomadland*, The Father (if TFF had happened these films would have played)

2021 (3)- Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog

2022 (2)- TAR, Women Talking

2023 (4)- Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest

2024- ?????

That's a total of 39 Best Picture nominees over the 15 years for an average of 2.6 per year with 10 winners.  Will the 2024 race be the first wherein Telluride has five nominees?  

NEW POSTERS

International Poster for Anora:

Zurawski v. Texas poster:

PROFILES AND INTERVIEWS

Sean Baker and Mikey Madison for Anora from Entertainment Weekly.

Sean Baker for Anora from The Hollywood Reporter.

Will Farrell and Harper Steele for Will and Harper from The Hollywood Reporter.

How Jason Reitman found the cast for Saturday Night from The Hollywood Reporter.

AND...

The Telluride History 1996-Present page has been updated for 2024 including Films, Guests, Tributes and Guest Director information.  Also, the collection of Ratings from The Professionals, The People and the Composites have been updated with 2024 included.

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Vanity Fair's Too Early Oscar Picks and TFF / Cannes Speculation and TFF / The Best Docs of the 21st Century and TFF

VANITY FAIR'S TOO EARLY OSCAR PICKS AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Joe Reid of Vanity Fair. These predicted films seem to me to have the best chance at TFF (listed in the order they are presented in the article):

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Blitz- Dir: Steve McQueen

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger

The Actor- Dir: Duke Johnson

The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross

Queer; Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Long Day's Journey Into Night- Dir: Jonathan Kent

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

SNL 1975- Dir: Jason Reitman

The complete list of Vanity Fair predictions is linked here.

CANNES SPECULATION AND TFF

In addition to Oscar speculation as a way to sense some of the films that could be on their way to Telluride, the films that are selected for inclusion at the Cannes Film Festival merit investigation.

Each year there are a number of films that end up playing at Cannes in May and again as a North American premiere at TFF.  Last year I logged 10 films that played both fests including Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and The Teachers' Lounge.  The average is around eight per year.

So, to begin that part of the process, I took a look at Screen Daily's annual Cannes speculation  article that was posted a week ago.  Screen Daily divides its list geographically.  That said, here are what feel like films that could possibly make the Cannes/Telluride connection:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Emilia Perez-Jacques Audiard

Dear Paris- Dir: Marjane Satrapi

The complete Screen Daily article is linked here.

THE BEST DOCS OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND TFF

Indiewire posted a list of what they have determined to be the 52 best documentaries of the 21st century.  Not surprisingly a good number of the films that made the list also made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival.

Here's the list of docs from the top 52 that screened at TFF.  These are listed in reverse order by where Indiewire ranked them.  The year the doc appeared at Telluride is indicated to the title's right in parentheses:

43) The Central Park Five (2012)\

31) Procession (2021)

29) Fire at Sea (2016)

17) Waltz with Bashir (2008)

13) Bowling for Columbine (2002)

10) The Look of Silence (2015)

9) Stories We Tell (2013)

6) Faces Places (2017)

5) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (2022)

4) Flee (2021)

1) The Act of Killing (2013)

The complete list of 52 including description and analysis is linked here.

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