Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here are updated nomination predictions for the Screenplay categories for the 97th Academy Awards. These categories were last predicted on Oct. 31st. An film's previous rank appears to the right of their names in parentheses. TFF #51 actors/films are in Bold.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave (1)
2) Emilia Perez (2)
3) Sing Sing (3)
4) Nickel Boys (4)
5) The Room Next Door (-)
Others: Dune Part Two, A Complete Unknown and Inside Out 2.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora (1)
2) The Brutalist (2)
3) A Real Pain (3)
4) September 5 (4)
5) Saturday Night (5)
Others: The Seed of the Sacred Fig, The Substance and Blitz.
Best Picture nomination predictions will be updated on Monday.
HARPER AND WILL TOP CRITIC'S CHOICE
The Critics' Choice Awards for documentaries were announce this week and TFF #51 film Will and Harper tied with Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story as Best Documentary feature for the year. Will and Harper finished in the #2 spot in this year's MTFB People's poll just behind Zurawski v. Texas.
It's time! As we end September here are my first predictions for Oscar nominations for the 97th Academy Awards. I'll start off with predicting the eight "Above the Line" categories first. I'll keep updating those from now until the day before the nomination announcement-Friday, Jan. 17th. I'll also add other categories along the way as we get closer and ultimately will have all the categories predicted before nomination day. As always TFF films are indicated in Bold. Films are listed in order of their likelihood of nomination.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora
2) Emilia Perez
3) Conclave
4) The Brutalist
5) Dune II
6) Sing Sing
7) Gladiator II
8) Blitz
9) Saturday Night
10) September 5
Other Possibilities: A Real Pain, A Complete Unknown, The Room Next Door.
BEST DIRECTION
1) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez
2) Sean Baker/Anora
3) Edward Berger/Conclave
4) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist
5) Denis Villenueve/Dune II
Others: Ridley Scott/Gladiator II, Steve McQueen/Blitz, Pedro Almodovar/The Room Next Door.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Mikey Madison/Anora
2) Angelina Jolie/Maria
3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez
4) Nicole Kidman/Babygirl
5) Saoirse Ronan/The Outrun
Others: Amy Adams/Nightbitch, Tilda Swinton/The Room Next Door, Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here.
BEST ACTOR
1) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave
2) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing
3) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist
4) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown
5) Daniel Craig/Queer
Others: Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice, Paul Mescal/Gladiator II, John David Washington/The Piano Lesson.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez
2) Danielle Deadwyler/The Piano Lesson
3) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave
4) Saoirse Ronan/Blitz
5) Selena Gomez/Emilia Perez
Others: Felicity Jones/The Brutalist, Lady Gaga/Joker: Folie a Deux, Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor/Nickel Boys.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain
2) Denzel Washington/Gladiator II
3) Clarence Maclin/Sing Sing
4) Stanley Tucci/Conclave
5) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist
Others: Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice, Samuel L. Jackson/The Piano Lesson, John Magaro/September 5.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave
2) Sing Sing
3) Dune II
4) Nickel Boys
5) The Piano Lesson
Others: Hit Man, Inside Out 2, I'm Still Here.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora
2) Saturday Night
3) The Brutalist
4) A Real Pain
5) Emilia Perez
Others: September 5, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Blitz
If I'm 100% accurate this is how nominations breakdown for TFF #51 films in these eight categories:
Emilia Perez (6 noms): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Gascon), Supporting Actress (Saldana), Supporting Actress (Gomez), Original Screenplay.
Conclave (6 noms): Best Picture, Direction, Actor (Fiennes), Supporting Actress (Rossellini), Supporting Actor (Tucci), Adapted Screenplay.
Anora (4 noms): BestPicture, Direction, Actress (Madison), Original Screenplay.
The Piano Lesson (2 noms and 2 maybes) Nominations: Supporting Actress (Deadwyler), Adapted Screenplay. Other possibilities: Actor (Washington), Supporting Actor (Jackson).
A Real Pain (2 noms and 1 maybe): Nominations: Supporting Actor (Culkin), Original Screenplay. Maybe: Best Picture.
Saturday Night (2 noms): Best Picture, Best Original Screenplay.
September 5 (1 nom and 2 maybes): Nomination: Best Picture. Maybes: Supporting Actor (Magaro), Original Screenplay.
Nickel Boys ( 1 nom and 1 maybe): nomination: Adapted Screenplay. Maybe: Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor.
The Outrun (1 nom); Best Actress (Ronan).
Maria (1 nom): Best Actress (Jolie).
The Apprentice (2 maybes): Best Actor (Stan), Supporting Actor (Strong).
Overall, these 11 films account for 26 nominations and another 8 possible nominations in these eight categories.
As we turn the corner after The SHOW to what films from The SHOW will make an impact on the awards season, I thought it would behoove us to look back at the history of the fest and its Oscar players. So I went back to 2009, the year that the new expanded list of nominees came into effect so that there were more than five Best Picture nominees each year.
One of the reasons I decided to do that is that early Oscar BP lists are indicating that 2024 might be a record year for films that played Telluride. Since 2009 the largest number of TFF films nominated for Best Picture in a single year is four and that has happened twice. This year, at least as the early predictions are showing, TFF #51 almost certainly will be the third time that four films from the best will be nominated. But, there is a reasonable chance that there will be five films among the ten that get the noms.
Here's the history of TFF Best Picture nominees since 2009 (* indicates Best Picture winner):
2009 (2)- An Education, Up in the Air
2010 (3)- The King's Speech*, Black Swan, 127 Hours
2011 (2)- The Artist*, The Descendants
2012 (2)- Argo*, Amour
2013 (3)- 12 Years a Slave*, Gravity, Nebraska
2014 (2)- Birdman*, The Imitation Game
2015 (2)- Spotlight*, Room
2016 (4)- Moonlight*, Arrival, La La Land, Manchester by the Sea
2017 (3)- The Shape of Water*, Darkest Hour, Lady Bird
2018 (2)- The Favourite, Roma
2019 (3)- Parasite*, Ford v. Ferrari, Marriage Story
2020 (2)- Nomadland*, The Father (if TFF had happened these films would have played)
2021 (3)- Belfast, King Richard, The Power of the Dog
2022 (2)- TAR, Women Talking
2023 (4)- Anatomy of a Fall, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Zone of Interest
2024- ?????
That's a total of 39 Best Picture nominees over the 15 years for an average of 2.6 per year with 10 winners. Will the 2024 race be the first wherein Telluride has five nominees?
The Telluride History 1996-Present page has been updated for 2024 including Films, Guests, Tributes and Guest Director information. Also, the collection of Ratings from The Professionals, The People and the Composites have been updated with 2024 included.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
Bluesky: @gort2.bsky.social
MTFB's Facebook Page
MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays
If you would like to be added to the MTFB e-mail list send an email to mpgort@gmail.com
Here's my annual final step of computation that has become an MTFB tradition. It's The Composite Telluride ratings in which I add the average from The People and The Professionals to provide one more glimpse of how The SHOW's films were perceived.
To begin, here's the history of The Composite Telluride with the film's combined rating at the right followed by its position on each of the two lists in brackets.
1) Anora 8.97 [3-1]
2) Emilia Perez 8.38 [5-3]
3) September 5 8.28 [7-2]
4) Conclave 8.17 [4-5]
5) Saturday Night 7.88 [9-4]
6) Maria 7.11 [11-9]
7) Nickel Boys 7.03 [16-6]
8) Piece by Piece 7.00 [14-7]
9) The Friend 6.76 [12-10]
10) The Piano Lesson 6.75 [15-8]
11) The End 5.17 [18-11]
Anora replaces The Power of the Dog on the All Time Top Ten Composite Ratings list. That looks like this now:
1) (TIE) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 (Won Best Picture)
1) (TIE) Argo (9.25) 2012 (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Poor Things (9.04) 2023
9) (TIE) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) (TIE) Anora (8.97) 2024
SEPTEMBER 5 GOES TO PARAMOUNT
Scott Feinberg of The Hollywood Reporter reports that September 5 will be distributed by Paramount. The film will have a [platformed release beginning Nov. 27th and then expanding into other theaters in December.
Feinberg writes in his article:
"Interest among distributors reached a crescendo after the film premiered at — and blew the roof off of — the recent Venice and Telluride film festivals, generating comparisons to past best picture Oscar winners Argo and Spotlight."
September 5 landed with a solid 4.20 rating in MTFB's People's Poll and a 4.08 from the Professionals ending up as a surprise #2 from them. As you can see above the film had a composite rating of 8.28 that put it at #3 on the composite chart ahead of such possible Oscar contenders such as Conclave, Saturday Night, Nickel Boys and The Piano Lesson.
