Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
The Toronto Fest announced a number of titles for TFF 2026 and from their premiere designations we can infer that the following films are likely playing Telluride:
A Long Winter
Elsinore
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Fjord
Minotaur
Ink
The debut
Tender Loving Care
and others.
Not going to Telluride:
Coward (the biggest surprise to me)
All of a Sudden
Bunker
Prima Facie
Bitter Christmas
Clarissa
More to come...
THE PALM UNDER WATER
Although not strictly a story about The SHOW...it is. Telluride endured a substantial mudslide last Friday and The Palm and the Intermediate and Middle schools were all affected. The Palm especially. A breach in a loading door allowed immense amounts of water and move to move into The Palm Theater. Heres' the pic that has been most prevalent coming out of Telluride (the photo is from The Telluride Times):
That's the floor of The Palm.
How does affect the fest? Will it affect the Fest?
The Telluride Film Festival has named actress-director-writer Rebecca Hall to act as Guest Director for its 53rd edition. Here's the scuttlebutt from Tellurideinside.com:
Festival organizers annually select one of the world’s great film enthusiasts to join them in the creation of the Festival’s program lineup. The Guest Director serves as a key collaborator in Telluride Film Festival’s programming decisions, bringing new ideas, unique perspectives and overlooked films to the gathering. In keeping with Telluride Film Festival tradition, Hall’s film selections, along with the rest of the Festival lineup, will remain a secret until just before Opening Day.
“Rebecca Hall is a unique and brilliant person with an extraordinary basket of gifts who embodies the magical combination we look for in a Guest Director,” comments Telluride Film Festival director Julie Huntsinger. “Whether she is acting, writing or directing, her work reflects an uncommon curiosity, intelligence and generosity of spirit – and she is adventurous to boot! She approaches cinema with the same thoughtfulness that she brings to every creative endeavor, and we know her wonderful background and perspective will make her an inspired Guest Director. We are thrilled to welcome Rebecca to Telluride and can’t wait to experience the films that have shaped and continue to inspire her remarkable artistic journey.”
Rebecca Hall is a celebrated British-American actress, writer and director whose work spans independent films, major studio productions, television and the stage. She will next star in Adam Wingard’s A24 action thriller “Onslaught” and appears in the upcoming season of Netflix’s “Monster,” as well as “The Man I Love” and “The End of It,” both of which premiered at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival. Hall recently completed production on the zombie thriller “Zero Protocol” and is set to write, direct and star in “Four Days Like Sunday.”
Hall made her directorial debut with “Passing,” which premiered at the Sundance Film Festival to widespread critical acclaim and earned BAFTA nominations for Outstanding British Film and Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer. As an actor, she has received Golden Globe, BAFTA, Independent Spirit, Critics’ Choice, Gotham and Screen Actors Guild Award nominations for performances in films including “Vicky Cristina Barcelona”; Christine,Peter Hujar’s Day, “The Town”; “The Prestige”; “The Night House”; “Godzilla vs. Kong”; and “Godzilla x Kong: The New Empire.”
Her distinguished career also includes award-winning work in television and lauded performances on both the West End and Broadway.
“This will be my first time at Telluride,” says Rebecca. “But I’ve been hearing tales of this annual utopian film community for years, always alongside sentences like ‘the one filmmakers love the most.’ ‘Your favorite film festival’s favorite film festival.’ ‘The one where you get to watch more films than promote them.’ I always hoped I’d get to come with a film, so to get to bring 6 films feels like an incredible act of generosity on the part of the universe. I can’t wait to watch all of them with you.”
Past Guest Directors include Laurie Anderson, Peter Bogdanovich, John Boorman, Guillermo Cabrera Infante, Don DeLillo, Jean-Pierre Gorin, Buck Henry, Pico Iyer, Barry Jenkins, Edith Kramer, Rachel Kushner, Jonathan Lethem, Phillip Lopate, Guy Maddin, Errol Morris, Michael Ondaatje, Joshua Oppenheimer, Alexander Payne, B. Ruby Rich, Salman Rushdie, Peter Sellars, John Simon, Volker Schlöndorff, Stephen Sondheim, Bertrand Tavernier, Caetano Veloso and Slavoj Žižek.
THIS AND THAT
Interesting notes from the past four days:
***James Gray's Paper Tiger has been named the opening night film for the New York Film Festival and is billed as a World Premiere. That means the film, which I have had consistently as one my Ten Best for The SHOW, will not be screening at The SHOW...unless some behind-the-scenes action turns it into a "sneak" at TFF.
***Sources say that Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning will not be ready for Venice in time. That would mean it also won't be ready for Telluride either.
***World of Reel reports that Joel Coen's Jack of Spades is likely not releasing until next year-so no Telluride.
***Danny Boyle's Ink has been chosen to open The Venice Film Fest, It will screen on Sept, 2nd giving it a window to also make the TFF #53 lineup. Additionally Ink has been acquired by Netflix which doesn't hurt its Telluride chances.
***The Toronto International Film Festival announced five titles for its latest edition. Of note was the billing of The Alpha Gang as an International Premiere which could indicate a play at Telluride. The only other possible explanation I can come up with is that TIFF and Fantastic Fest overlap...barely. TIFF runs Sept. 10-20 and Fantastic Fest run Sept. 17-24. I suppose that Alpha Gang could play Fantastic Fest early and Toronto late and that would explain TIFF labeling the film as an International Premiere. We'll have to wait on the film announcements from Fantastic Fest for further clarity.
IONCINEMA GUESSES FOR VENICE
Ioncinema took a shot at guessing some Venetian possibilities and also, inadvertently made some claims about Telluride possibilities in and post from Saturday. In the article they mention four of their Venice guesses as possibly going to T-ride as well:
Behemoth!
The Debut
Wild Horse Nine
Musk
Among other titles they predict for Venice there are some that I think have some Telluride crossover chances:
Bucking Fastard
Bunker
Tender Loving Care
The Basics of Philosophy
Here Comes the Flood
We should see the Venice lineup announcement this week sometime. Of more import following that will be the Venice schedule which can give hints as to possible Telluride films.
The countdown to TFF #53 grows shorter and shorter. H
Here's the fifth installment of MTFB's Ten Bets, the weekly guess at what films make the Telluride lineup. We start with a reminder of last week's bets:
Artificial
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
If you read last Monday's post you'll recall that Neon has reversed course on Luca Guadagnino's Artificial and, at least for now, are avowing that the film "isn't likely to go down the standard festival route" which Deadline points out does not preclude some festival appearance. Heck, Deadline even says they think it will likely will be at some festival. As a matter of fact, Deadline's language doesn't shut the door on Artificial at TFF but rather, sounds like Telluride might be the most likely landing spot:
"That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."
So, I'm moving Artificial to the list of possibles and Andrew Haigh's A Long Winter back into the Ten Bets:
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Elsinore
A Long Winter
Fatherland
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Other possibilities: Artificial, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
A couple of other notes...
For Ten Bets #6 next week I'll begin to actually list the films in order of likelihood to play...
And we should get some news from Toronto which should be informative.
WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: MUBI
MTFB continues its look at the film distribution companies that have had the largest profiles at the Telluride Film Festival over the past five years in an effort to, perhaps, set the table for films that could be headed to TFF #53. Up to this point for 2026 we have examined: Netflix, Neon, Sony Pictures Classics, Focus Features and A24. Each of those outfits have averaged two or more films at TFF in that time span.
Today we look at Mubi, which has had nine films at Telluride since 2021 but whose footprint has increased over the last couple of years. Additionally Mubi could potentially provide more films to TFF #53 than any other distributor.
Here's Mubi's history over the last five years:
2021: Unclenching the Fists.
2022: No films.
2023: Fallen Leaves, High & Low: John Galliano, Tehachapi.
2024: Bird.
2025: The History of Sound, King Hamlet, La Grazia, Mastermind.
And these are the films in the Mubi warehouse we think might be TFF possibilities (with their chance of making the lineup):
Coward 70%
Fatherland 65%
A Long Winter 55%
Minotaur 50%
Rose 40%
Hope 25%
NEXT BEST PICTURE GUESSES TELLIRIDE (AND OTHER FALL FESTS)
Matt Neglia and his crew at Next Best Picture have posted a massive list of films for each of the four major "fall" film fests: Telluride, Venice, Toronto and New York. Looking at his T-ride list is intriguing, Here it is with films on the MTFB Ten Bets (and possibilities) list indicated with ***.
All Of A Sudden (Ryusuki Hamaguchi)
American Doctor (Poh Si Teng)
Artificial (Luca Guadagnino)***
Behemoth! (Tony Gilroy)
Bitter Christmas (Pedro Almodóvar)
Bucking Fastard (Werner Herzog)***
Club Kid (Jordan Firstman)***
Coward (Lukas Dhont)***
The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)***
Elsinore (Simon Stone)***
Fatherland (Paweł Pawlikowski)***
Fjord (Cristian Mungiu)***
Iron Boy (Louis Clichy)
Josephine (Beth de Araújo)
La Bola Negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)***
La Gradiva (Marine Atlan)
A Long Winter (Andrew Haigh)***
Minotaur (Andrey Zvyagintsev)***
Mouse (Kelly O’Sullivan and Alex Thompson)
The Only Living Pick Pocket In New York (Noah Segan)
Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)
Rehearsals for a Revolution (Pegah Ahangarani)
Rose (Markus Schleinzer)
Saturn Return (Greg Kwedar)
The Unknown (Arthur Harari)
Yellow Letters (İlker Çatak)***
Couple of notes:
Films on the NBP list that are not currently a "Bet" by MTFB but are on the radar are: Behemoth!, Bitter Christmas, La Gradiva, Primetime, Rose and Saturn Return.
Josephine and The Only Living Pickpocket in New York were Sundance selections which doesn't rule them out for Telluride, but it's uncommon for a film to screen both places.
Lot's of buzz early this week with first look photos and a trailer for Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! The film stars Pedro Pascal and is described at IMDb like this:
"Follows a musician from a family of musicians who returns to Los Angeles. A love letter to the music of the movies and the people who make it."
Behemoth! is being distributed by Searchlight and there is a good deal of speculation that it will be making a fall film fest run though whether that would include Telluride is very uncertain at this point.
Here's an image from the Vanity Fair article:
In addition, Searchlight dropped a trailer on Tuesday. Here that is from YouTube:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7T64gVlcc1I&t=99s
Searchlight hasn't yet announced a release date from the film.
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Our fifth look at frequent film distribution companies that have been represented at Telluride over the last five years lands today on A24.
Over the last five TFFs, these are the films from A24 that have screened:
2021: Red Rocket, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On.
2022: Aftersun, Close.
2023: Janet Planet, Occupied City, Tuesday, The Zone of Interest.
2024: No films.
2025: If I had Legs I'd Kick You, Pillion.
As you can see, A24 has had 10 films at TFF over these last fests with 2024 being the anomaly with no A24 films.
I'm tracking three films from A24 that show the most promise for a TFF berth:
The Debut, Club Kid and Priemtime.
I honestly could see all three making the TFF #53 lineup.
Their chances:
The Debut 75%
Club Kid 65%
Primetime 50%
I'd be interested in all three.
THE ARTIFICIAL SWITCHEROO
Artificial Director Luca Guadagnino
It wasn't more than about an hour after I pinched the button and published last Monday's MTFB, which included the latest "Ten Bets" that Neon messed with me.
I had re-instated Luca Guadagnino's Artificial to the Ten Bets. An hour later news broke that:
"Luca Guadagnino‘s much-talked about Artificial is expected to forgo a traditional fall festival rollout, we understand."
That reporting came from Deadline.com
Now, the story backed off the wholistic claim of "traditional festival rollout" later in the article stating:
"We understand there has been interest from multiple A-list festivals, and while things can change, we hear the film isn’t likely to go down the standard festival route. That doesn’t mean it won’t pop up at a festival in some form (we bet it will), but it won’t have the traditional launch with the bells and whistles of a red carpet, press conference, junkets, etc."
Soooo, does that mean a TFF berth is still in play? Maybe.
Sony Pictures Classics has acquired Florian Zellers' Bunker for North American distribution according to multiple sources. The film stars Javier Bardem and Penelope Cruz.
Deadline reports that, "An Oscar campaign is being lined up with a qualifying run end of year before release in early 2027."
The IMDb description:
"Follows a married couple of 17 years. The husband is an architect who accepts a controversial project to build a survivalist bunker for a tech billionaire. This decision leads his wife to question their marriage."
Zeller's The Father reportedly would have played Telluride had Covid not nuked the fest in 2020.
So, in retrospect, I profiled SPC's possible TFF chances on July 6th. Bunker now gets added to he list of SPC possibilities for Telluride with an equal chance as Almodovar's Bitter Christmas to make the list.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.
PAUSE: MOVES THIS WEEK...
We'll get to the new Ten Bets after this ...
Variety reports that hot property Elsinore starring Andrew Scott and Olivia Colman has been acquired by Focus Features after what they report as a:
"a competitive bidding war among several studios for the Simon Stone-directed drama"
MTFB has been following the emergence of the film since last week marking it as a late breaking possibility for TFF #53. Variety's tory on the acquisition by Focus also had something to say about that:
"Sources tell Variety that programmers at each of the fall festivals — Venice, Telluride, Toronto and New York — are circling the title, though a premiere venue has yet to be set."
The Playlist underscored the point reporting that:
"(Elsinore) is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for."
The way I read that is that all four fests are eager to program the film and now it's matter of what Focus wants to do...where they wan to with the film. It sure doesn't slow down the speculation that it might well be included for The SHOW.
Add that to the other notices last week that Artificial had been invited by "all the major fall festivals" per The Playlist.
On top of that, Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut seems to be picking up steam with his claim that the film will debut at a fall film fest. Don't discount that A Real Pain played Telluride nor should we ignore that Emma Stone, who we believe is a big fan of Telluride, is/was a producer for both films.
All of this has altered the new Ten Bets from last week. Which leads us back to...
Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Fjord, Yellow Letters and The Story of Documentary Film.
WHO'S GOT WHAT? DISTRIBUTORS: FOCUS FEATURES
I MTFB's continuing look at common distributors of films that make the Telluride lineup we turn for Focus Features which, over the last five years, has been the fourth most ubiquitou distributor at TFF. They've screened 11 films at The SHOW in that time:
2021: Belfast, The Card Counter.
2022: TAR, Armageddon Time.
2023: The Holdovers, The Bikeriders
2024: Conclave, Piece by Piece.
2025: Hamnet, Bugonia, Hamlet.
11 films, six of which were nominated for Best Picture. That's an impressive list. So going into TFF #53 you have to think Focus will have at least two films make the grade... Here's their most likely applicants:
(The newly acquired) Elsinore, Sense and Sensibility, Hope and The Uprising.
Chances for TFF #53:
Elsinore 70%
Sense and Sensibility 40%
Hope 25%
The Uprising 20%
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Here's the third installment for 2026 for taking a look at distribution companies which have had a strong relationship with the Telluride Film Festival. Today we gaze at Sony Pictures Classics (SPC) which likely has the longest connection to the fest overall. Though SPC comes in as the third most represented distributor over the last five years with 13 films appearing, the SPC/TFF connection goes back many more fests. SPC is always a strong bet to have a film or films at TFF.
Here's the five year track record:
2021: The Duke, Julia
2022: Living, One Fine Morning, The Return of Tanya Tucker, Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams.
2023: Daddio, The Teachers' Lounge, They Shot the Piano Player.
2024: Don't Let's Go to the Dog's Tonight, The Outrun.
2025: Blue Moon, A Private Life
It's solid five year run averaging between two and three films per year,
Now, here's what's in the SPC treasure chest for a possible TFF #53 spot and my current guess about each film's probability of playing:
(If it's ready) The Statement/McCarthy 50%
Bunker 50%
Bitter Christmas/Almodovar 50%
Rehearsals for a Revolution/Ahangarani 30%
Iron Boy/Clichy 25%
[Revised 7-13-26]
WHISPERS: ELSINORE???
Andrew Scott at TFF #52 (Getty Images)
Maybe keep an eye out for Elsinore starring Andrew Scott. The film is being shopped for U.S. distribution with a deal expected "soon".
The logline: A powerful, deeply moving and inspiring story of the actor Ian Charleson who faced incredible odds while preparing to give the performance of his life in Hamlet at the National Theatre in London.
Scott is starring as Charleson who is probably best known to Americans for playing Eric Liddell in Chariots of Fire.
Anyway, World of Reel and The Playlist reported in the last few days that it could be a surprise entry at the end of this year into the Oscar race.
An intriguing note from The Playlist story: Ellwood claims the film has been accepted by multiple film fests writing:
"This (Elsinore) is also a movie that, like “Artificial,” has gotten into every festival it has screened for."
Of course we have no way of knowing which and how many fests are being referenced but it certainly doesn't disqualify the possibility of T-ride.
Scott, who attended TFF last year with Richard Linklater's Blue Moon, could return.
Keep an ear to the ground regarding who picks up distribution for the film.
THE DEBUT OF THE DEBUT?
I think everyone who reads this space with any frequency has figured out that I'm really excited about Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut.
Now comes news that the film has been confirmed by Eisenberg to be premiering at a "fall film festival". That news comes via an interview with Screen Daily as Eisenberg is at the Karlovy Film Fest to receive its President's Award.
From Screen Daily/Screen International's X account:
Sooo...not a lock for Telluride, but not ruling it out either.
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Here's the new update of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #53. First, last week's bets:
The Black Ball
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Fatherland
Fjord
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Yellow Letters
Other possibilities: A Long Winter and The Story of Documentary Film.
Now a look at this week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities:
Bucking Fastard
Club Kid
Coward
The Debut
Fatherland
Fjord
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
Yellow Letters
Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.
WHO'S GOT WHAT: DISTRIBUTORS-NEON
I'm continuing my look at distributors who have a significant presence at Telluride over the past five years. Last Monday we started with Netflix, which has been the most ubiquitous in the half decade. Today we look at Neon...the 2nd most "present" outfit since 2021 with 15 films over that span:
2021: Flee, Petite Maman, Spencer, Three Minutes...a Lengthening.
2022: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Broker.
2023: Anatomy of a Fall, La Chimera, Perfect Days, The Royal Hotel.
2024: Anora, The End, The Seed of the Sacred Fig.
2025: It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value.
And the Neon larder is stacked with primarily Cannes Fest films and a new addition just this week:
All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi)
Clarissa (Erisi/Erisi)
Fjord (Mungiu)
Hope (Hong-Jin)
Paper Tiger (Gray)
A Place in Hell (Dumont)
Sheep in the Box (Kore-eda)
The Unknown (Hariri)
And the late breaking addition (and non-Cannes film) Luca Guadagnino's Artificial. Neon picked this up after Amazon-MGM decided they would not release it. Artificial had been a film I have been keeping an eye on re: TFF #53 but Amazon-MGM had made noise that it was going to premiere at South by Southwest and release in 2027 which moved it right off the MTFB watch list.
Neon has already made it clear they intend to place the film square in the middle of the upcoming Oscar season and there is a good deal of buzz that it will be submitted for Venice. All this puts it back on the table as a TFF #53 potential selection. So much so, in fact, you'll note that it has already made the list of "Other Possibilities" in this week's "Ten Bets".
As to the other eight Neon possibles and their chances?
Paper Tiger 70%
Fjord 50%
Clarissa 50%
All of a Sudden 40%
Hope 25%
A Place in Hell 25%
Artificial??? Say 45% for right now.
[Revised 7-13-26]
We'll look at Sony Pictures Classics (SPC) on Monday.
DATING NEWS
There have been a number of notices for release dates for some films that could be under considration for TFF:
Sense and Sensibility: Sept. 25.
Fjord: Oct. 9.
Saturn Return: Oct. 9.
Klara and the Sun: Oct. 23.
Wild Horse Nine: Nov. 6.
Minotaur: Nov. 20.
Clarissa Dec. 25.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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