Ten Bets for TFF #53 Vol. 3 / Who's Got What: Distributors-Neon / Dating News

TEN BETS FOR TFF #53 VOL. 3

Here's the new update of MTFB's Ten Bets for TFF #53.  First, last week's bets:

The Black Ball

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter and The Story of Documentary Film.

Now a look at this week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities:

Bucking Fastard

Club Kid

Coward

The Debut

Fatherland

Fjord

La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Minotaur

Paper Tiger

Yellow Letters

Other possibilities: A Long Winter, Artificial and The Story of Documentary Film.

WHO'S GOT WHAT: DISTRIBUTORS-NEON

I'm continuing my look at distributors who have a significant presence at Telluride over the past five years.  Last Monday we started with Netflix, which has been the most ubiquitous in the half decade.  Today we look at Neon...the 2nd most "present" outfit since 2021 with 15 films over that span:

2021: Flee, Petite Maman, Spencer, Three Minutes...a Lengthening.

2022: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Broker.

2023: Anatomy of a Fall, La Chimera, Perfect Days, The Royal Hotel.

2024: Anora, The End, The Seed of the Sacred Fig.

2025: It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value.

And the Neon larder is stacked with primarily Cannes Fest films and a new addition just this week:

All of a Sudden (Hamaguchi)

Clarissa (Erisi/Erisi)

Fjord (Mungiu)

Hope (Hong-Jin)

Paper Tiger (Gray)

A Place in Hell (Dumont)

Sheep in the Box (Kore-eda)

The Unknown (Hariri)

And the late breaking addition (and non-Cannes film) Luca Guadagnino's Artificial.  Neon picked this up after Amazon-MGM decided they would not release it.  Artificial had been a film I have been keeping an eye on re: TFF #53 but Amazon-MGM had made noise that it was going to premiere at South by Southwest and release in 2027 which moved it right off the MTFB watch list.

Neon has already made it clear they intend to place the film square in the middle of the upcoming Oscar season and there is a good deal of buzz that it will be submitted for Venice.  All this puts it back on the table as a TFF #53 potential selection. So much so, in fact, you'll note that it has already made the list of "Other Possibilities" in this week's "Ten Bets".

As to the other eight Neon possibles and their chances?  

Paper Tiger 70%

Fjord 50%

Clarissa 50%

All of a Sudden 40%

Hope 25%

A Place in Hell 25%

Artificial??? Say 45% for right now.

[Revised 7-13-26]

We'll look at Sony Pictures Classics (SPC) on Monday.

DATING NEWS

There have been a number of notices for release dates for some films that could be under considration for TFF:

Sense and Sensibility: Sept. 25.

Fjord: Oct. 9.

Saturn Return: Oct. 9.

Klara and the Sun: Oct. 23.

Wild Horse Nine: Nov. 6.

Minotaur: Nov. 20.

Clarissa Dec. 25.

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Film Fest Heads Discuss the Future / Awards Radar Updates for Best Picture and TFF Potentials

 FILM FEST HEADS DISCUSS THE FUTURE

A couple of weeks back Indiewire hosted a conversation at Cannes  featuring four film festival directors including Telluride's Julie Huntsinger.  Other fest directors included were from Sundance, Berlin and New York.  The convo was hosted by Indiewire's Anne Thompson.

The focus was the future of film festivals.  You can see the entire 44 minute video at Indiewire's website.

That video and article are linked here.

https://www.indiewire.com/news/events/film-festival-directors-discuss-future-cannes-1235195002/

AWARDS RADAR UPDATES FOR BEST PICTURE AND TFF POTENTIALS

Joey Magidson of Awards Watch has updates his Best Picture predictions as of the end of the Cannes Film Fest.  He lists 25 films in all and in their order of likelihood in terms of being nominated and winning the 2027 Oscar.  I've broken those down into various categories as it relates to the potential for a TFF #53 play.

No chance: (Because they already have premiered before Telluride): 

#2 The Odyssey

#4 Project Hail Mary

#9 Tony

#11 Disclosure Day

#14 Josephine (Sundance) 

#21 The Invite

#24 Wuthering Heights

#25 Michael

Unlikely: (for a variety of reasons):

#1 Dune: Part Three

#6 Digger

#8 The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Smallish chance at Telluride:

#3 Wild Horse Nine

#5 The Social Reckoning

#10 Saturn Return

#12 I Play Rocky

#13 Being Heumann

#16 The Uprising

#17 Behemoth!

#19 Jack of  Spades

#20 A Place in Hell

Decent chance at Telluride:

#7 Fjord

#15 Paper Tiger

#18 Clarissa

#22 All of a Sudden

#23 Artificial

 

Here are all of Magidson's predictions complete with commentary.

https://awardsradar.com/best-picture/

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Neglia Takes a Stab / Black Ball Teaser / Acquisition News Out of Cannes

NEGLIA TAKES A STAB

Matt Neglia of Next Best Picture (and remember Matt was on the ground in Cannes for the first two thirds or so) posted on his X account on Monday some speculation about where all of the Cannes' Palme d'Or competition films might go during the upcoming fall film fest frenzy.  Of the 22, Matt has named 8 films that he thinks may be a part of the TFF #53 lineup...

Again, Matt's predictions: All of a Sudden, Bitter Christmas, The Black Ball, Coward, Fatherland, Fjord, Minotaur and Paper Tiger.

I'm most interested in Paper Tiger, Fatherland and Coward.  Could get interested in Fjord, Minotaur and All of a Sudden.

THE BLACK BALL TEASER

We have a teaser from The Black Ball, which we're on TFF#53 alert for.  Could it be in Telluride on Labor Day weekend?

Here it is via YouTube and MovieStar Plus:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAZ8aVMfAUw

ACQUISITION NEWS OUT OF CANNES

Deadline reports that Netflix has acquired The Black Ball for distribution and Gentle Monster as well. The pick-up doesn't either hurt a film's chances for a play at Telluride as Netflix has become a very visible presence at the fest for the last several years.

Here's the Deadline article.

https://deadline.com/2026/05/netflix-cannes-lea-seydoux-gentle-monster-1236919715/

Meanwhile, MUBI has grabbed the North American distribution rights for Kukas Dhont's Coward.  That's also a move that doesn't hurt the prospects for Coward to be at TFF.  Dhont has previously presented two films at Telluride: Girl in 2018 and Close in 2022.

Here's that story from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/news/coward-lukas-dhont-mubi-north-american-rights-1236755499/

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Prize Winners from Cannes / Stacking Up with the Recent Past / What the Ratings Suggest

PRIZE WINNERS FROM CANNES

It's all over in France.  The 79th Cannes Film Festival closed with its awards ceremony on Saturday evening and Cristian Mungiu's Fjord won the Palme d'Or.  It was Mungiu's second Palme win after having won previously for Four Years, Three Weeks, Two Days back in 2007.  That film played the Telluride Film festival.

Complete winners from the Palme d'Or official competition:

Palme d'Or: Fjord (Mungiu)

Grand Prix: Minotaur (Zvyaginastev)

Jury Prize: The Dreamed Adventure (Grisebach)

Best Direction (Tie): Fatherland (Pawelkowski) and The Black Ball (Calvo and Ambrossi)

Best Screenplay: A Man of His Time (Marre)

Best Actress (Tie): All of a Sudden (Efira and Okamoto)

Best Actor (Tie): Coward (Macchia and Campagne)

STACKING UP WITH THE RECENT PAST

For comparison's sake, here's a winner of the same categories over the last five years with eventual TFF selections indicated with an *.

2025

Palme d'Or: It Was Just an Accident (Panahi)*

Grand Prix: Sentimental Value (Trier)*

Jury Prize: (Tie) Sirat (Laxe) and The Sound of Falling (Schilinski)

Best Direction: The Secret Agent (Mendonca)*

Best Screenplay: Young Mothers (Luc and Jean-Pierre Dardennes)

Best Actress: The Little Sister (Nadia Melliti)

Best Actor (Tie): The Secret Agent (Wagner Moura)*

Special Prize: Ressurection (Gan)

2024

Palme d'Or: Anora (Baker)*

Grand Prix: All We Imagine as Light (Kapadia)*

Jury Prize: Emilia Perez (Audiard)*

Best Direction: Grand Tour (Gomes)

Best Screenplay: The Substance (Fargeat)

Best Actress: Emilia Perez (Gascon, Saldana, Gomez and Paz)*

Best Actor: Kinds of Kindness (Plemons)

Special Prize: The Seed of the Sacred Fig (Rasoulof)*

2023

Palme d'Or: Anotomy of a Fall (Triet)*

Grand Prix: The Zone of Interest (Glazer)*

Jury Prize: Fallen Leaves (Kaurismaki)*

Best Direction: The Taste of Things (Tran Ahn Hung)*

Best Screenplay: Monster (Sakamoto, dir: Kore-eda)

Best Actress: About Dry Grasses (Merve Dizdar)

Best Actor: Fallen Leaves (Koji Yakoshu)*

2022

Palme d'Or: Triangle of Sadness (Ostlund)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Stars at Noon (Denis) and Close (Dhont)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Eo (Skolimowski) and Eight Mountains (Vandermeersch and Groeningen)

Best Direction: Decision to Leave (Chan-wook)

Best Screenplay: Boy from Heaven (Saleh)

Best Actress: Holy Spider (Amir Ebrahimi)*

Best Actor: Broker (Kang-ho)*

Special 75th Anniversary Prize: Tori and Lokita (Dardennes)*

2021

Palme d'Or: Titane (Ducournau)

Grand Prix: (Tie): Compartment  No. 6 (Kuosmanen) and A Hero (Farhadi)*

Jury Prize: (Tie): Ahed's Knee (Lapid) and Memoria (Weerasethakul)

Best Direction: Annette (Carax)

Best Screenplay: Drive My Car (Hamaguchi)

Best Actress: The Worst Person in the World (Renate Reinsve)

Best Actor: Nitram (Caleb Landry Jones)

As you can see, winning the Plame d'Or isn't a guarantee that a film will play at TFF although the last three have.

As to the rest of the categories, here's where they stand over the five years with winners then being a part of TFF:

Grand Prix: 5 (it's the most solid category in terms of a Cannes/Telluride connection).

Jury Prize: 2

Director: 2

Screenplay: 0

Actress: 2

Actor: 3

Special Prizes: 2

So your best odds by this metric favor 2026 Grand Prix winner Minotaur.

Next best are for Palme winners and Best Actor which would point toward: Fjord and Coward.

After that it gets very murky...

WHAT THE RATINGS SUGGEST

Taking a look at Cannes results over the last five years that have made the connection between Cannes and Telluride is, at the least interesting, and may be instructive as to anticipating what films might make that journey this year.

First, the average number of films that do the Telluride/Cannes two step seems to have increased over the past five years.  Here's the number that have made it since 2021:

2021-7

2022-9

2023-10

2024-8

2025-9

That averages out to 8.6 films each year.

Now, using the ratings from Cannes-ratings.org, where did these 43 films land on their 10point scale?

2021:

A Hero 7.30

Red Rocket 7.30

The French Dispatch 7.11

Bergman Island 7.09

The Velvet Underground 6.83

Cow 6.80

Unclenching the Fists 6.24

2022:

The Pupils 8.37

Aftersun 8.17

Close 7.76

Broker 7.47

Godland 7.38

One Fine Morning 7.34

Armageddon Time 6.90

Holy Spider 6.70

Tori and Lokita 6.32

2023:

The Zone of Interest 8.19

Perfect Days 7.91

Anatomy of a Fall 7.90

Fallen Leaves 7.46

La Chimera 7.46

The Taste of Things 7.01

Occupied City 6.97

Anselm 6.41

Little Girl Blue 6.21

Room 999 (no ratings found)

2024:

Anora 8.35

Misericordia 7.47

Bird 7.45

Emilia Perez 7.42

All We Imagine as Light 7.02

The Apprentice 6.94

Santosh 6.07

2025:

Sentimental Value 8.04

It Was Just an Accident 7.75

Pillion 7.30

Nouvelle Vague 7.23

Urchin 7.15

A Private Life 6.99

Mastermind 6.29

The History of Sound 5.81

43 films in all with 2025's The History of Sound being the lowest rated film to be picked up of any of the 43 by TFF.

The vast majority of films clear the 6.5 bar.  That's true for 35 of he 43 films listed above.  So what do this year's ratings signal, if anything?

Using the 6.5 or above metric and also being a little sly about films that are on the MTFB watch list, here's some takeaways:

32 films in all sections of Cannes #79 were above the 6.5 threshold. Among them, here are some films that I have on the MTFB watch list and where they are on the Cannes-ratings.org list:

#7) All of a Sudden 7.39

#10) Coward 7.28

#11) Minotaur 7.03

#21) Fjord 6.69

Other films that made enough of a splash that could earn them spots on the MTFB Watch List:

#1 Club Kid 8.37

#13 The Dreamed Adventure 6.94

#15 The Black Ball 6.91

#24 Avedon 6.50

#31 Clarissa 6.43

MTFB Watch list films that may have taken a hit:

#40 Fatherland 6.15

#42 Paper Tiger 6.15

#43 Hope 6.14

Off the top 50 grid so...you know...

Moulin 5.73

Gentle Monster 4.66

Sheep in the Box 4.53

Parallel Tales 4.22

The Unknown 4.14

Draw your own conclusions...the first official "Ten Bets" for TFF #53 drops on June18th.

More on Thursday!

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Cannes Continues / Some Buzz from Eisenberg / Mike Leigh Has a Title

 CANNES CONTINUES

The 79th Cannes Film Fest has passed its halfway mark and is barreling toward its conclusion this weekend. Taking a look at the metrics from Screen Daily, Ioncinema and Cannes-ratings.org, here are the films that seem to be at the forefront critically (*** indicates that the film is on my TFF watch list):

From Screen Daily (films in Palme competition with a better than 2.5 rating on a four point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.3***

2) All of a Sudden 3.1***

3) Paper Tiger 2.8***

3) Hope 2.8***

5) Naji Notes 2.5

The complete Screen Daily chart is linked here.

https://edition.pagesuite-professional.co.uk/html5/reader/production/default.aspx?pubname=&edid=7d45952f-7ff1-4ba7-b98c-78b6cf24da1e

From Ioncinema (films in Palme competition with a better than 3.0 rating on a five point scale):

1) Fatherland 3.7***

2) Fjord 3.5***

3) All of a Sudden 3.3***

4) Paper Tiger 3.2***

4) The Beloved 3.2

6) Hope 3.1***

The complete Ioncinema grid is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/05/2026-cannes-grid-fjord.jpg

From Cannes-ratings.org (films in Palme competition with a better than 7.0 rating on a 10 point scale and a minimum of 8 reviews):

1) Fjord 7.81***

2) Bitter Christmas 7.53***

3) All of a Sudden 7.24***

3) The Beloved 7.24

Of special note is the hugely favorable critical reception to Club Kid from the Un Certain Regard section at Cannes.  It has a stellar 8.43 rating to lead all films in any section of the fest.  News broke on Tuesday that the film had been picked up for U.S. distribution by A24 after a bidding war that included: Netflix, Searchlight, Focus Features and MUBI according to this story from Variety.

The critical reception, the players vying for the film and the ultimate winning bid is enough to make me pay attention to it as a possible TFF selection.   Stay tuned.

Club Kid is a first feature for director/writer Jordan Firstman. .  The IMDb description is:

"A washed-up New York party promoter is forced to turn his life around when an unexpected visitor arrives."

The complete set of ratings from Cannes-ratins.org is linked here.

https://cannes-ratings.org/

According to Kalshi  (as of yesterday), Minotaur has the best odds to win the Palme followed by All of a Sudden and Fatherland.

SOME BUZZ FOR EISENBERG

Spooking around the interwebs yesterday I came across the news that what has been referred to as "The Untitled Jesse Eisenberg Musical Comedy now has an actual title: No One Cares.  It also seems that the film has been screened at Cannes and it seems that the screening went well.  So says World of Reel. 

WOR describes the film as follows:

"Starring Julianne Moore and Paul Giamatti, with Eisenberg also appearing briefly, “No One Cares” is set in “the high-stakes world of community theater,” and follows a shy woman (Moore) who is unexpectedly cast in a local production of an original musical."

Giamatti plays the director of the community theater production.  I think it sounds great and I have had it on my TFF #53 watch list for some time mostly because Eisenberg screened A Real Pain at TFF in 2024.  That seemed to work out fairly well.  The film is being distributed by A24 which doesn't hurt.  Additionally WOR writes:

"A24 is positioning the film for a fall premiere, potentially at the Telluride Film Festival and then at the Toronto International Film Festival. An Oscar campaign will likely be mounted for all key players involved."

MIKE LEIGH HAS A TITLE

Another "Untitled Project" has an actual title and that's the next film from director Mike Leigh.  The name: Tender Loving Care.  Past that we know almost nothing about the project.  You can likely glean a bit of info from what IMDb still lists as "Untitled 2025 Mike Leigh Project"  which we assume is the same thing as the newly christened Tender Loving Care.

That IMDb info is linked here.

https://pro.imdb.com/title/tt35638092/details

The IMDb entry reveals that Bleeker Street is the U.S. distributor.

Considering Leigh's frequent stops at TFF over the years (Secrets and Lies, Happy-Go-Lucky, Another Year and others) you have to believe there's a decent chance that if it's ready, Tender Loving Care has a decent shot to play TFF #53.

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Early Returns from Cannes / Cousins New Doc Gets Distribution / Pics for Gentle Monster

EARLY RETURNS FROM CANNES

Though we're only through the first few days of the Cannes International Film Festival, we're already seeing the emergence of some potential prize-winners for the fest.  Here's the early version of the Screen Daily panel of critics:

SCREEN DAILY

As you can see the early films making a mark here are Pawlikowskis' Fatherland and Hamaguchi's all of a Sudden.  Both films have been fairly consistently on the various lists I have posted since the Oscar ceremony and before.  Meanwhile. Ioncinema's chart echoes the status of both Father land and All of a Sudden:

Meanwhile, we're awaiting a sufficient number of reviews to be accumulated at Cannes-ratings.org to truly make any assumption regarding where films are truly standing withe regard to that metric.

Couple of other notes here.  Both Farhadi's Parallel Tales, Kore-eda's Sheep in a Box and Kruetzer's Gentle Monster seem on shaky ground as regards prizes at Cannes and  perhaps as contenders for TFF #53.

COUSINS NEW DOCUMENTARY (ABOUT DOCUMENTARIES) GETS DISTRIBUTION

Telluride regular Marc Cousins (The Story of Film, A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things among several others) has garnered distribution for his next project: The Story of Documentary Film)  Kino Lorber has nabbed the North American rights for the 16 part doc about docs.

The question as to its possible appearance at Telluride rises from its inclusion at Sundance earlier this year.  My best guess is that owing to Cousins frequent presence at TFF and his current position as a Resident Curator and his past position on the fest's Board of Advisors. as well as being a TFF Tributee in 2022...my bet is we get some of the 16 episodes.

The story reagrding the Kino Lober acquisition is linked here from Variety.

https://variety.com/2026/film/global/kino-lorber-mark-cousins-the-story-of-documentary-film-1236751389/

PICS FROM GENTLE MONSTER

Via The Playlist's 27 Most Anticipated Films from Cannes'

https://theplaylist.net/2026-cannes-film-festival-27-most-anticipated-films-20260511

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Cannes Announces / Photos from Cannes' Selections

CANNES ANNOUNCES

The field of films for the 79th Cannes Film Festival have been announced.  This is important because history tells us that it's highly likely that 6-8 of these films (mostly from the Palme d'Or competition category) will be selected/invited to play at TFF #53 this fall.  Here, from Next Best Picture, are the fils that were announced this morning (films that I think have are the most likely for Telluride are indictaed with ***):

​COMPETITION

"The Electric Kiss" (dir. Pierre Salvadori) Opening Night film.

“All Of A Sudden” (dir. Ryusuke Hamaguchi)***

“The Beloved” (dir. Rodrigo Sorogoyen)

“Bitter Christmas” (dir. Pedro Almodóvar)***

“The Black Ball” (dir. Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)

“Coward” (dir. Lukas Dhont)***

“The Dreamed Adventure” (dir. Valeska Grisebac)

“Fatherland” (dir. Pawel Pawlikowski)*** (previously titled 1949)

“Fjord” (dir Cristian Mungiu)***

“Garance” (dir. Jeanne Herry)

“Gentle Monster” (dir. Marie Kreutzer)***

“Hope” (dir. Na Hong-Jin)

“The Man I Love” (dir. Ira Sachs)

“Minotaur” (dir. Andrey Zvyagintsev)***

“Moulin” (dir. Laszlo Nemes)***

“Nagi Notes” (dir. Kôji Fukada)

“Notre Salut” (dir. Emmanuel Marre)

“Parallel Stories” (dir. Asghar Farhadi)***

“Sheep in the Box” (dir. Hirokazu Kore-eda)***

“Stories Of The Night” (dir. Lea Mysius)

“The Unknown” (dir. Arthur Harari)***

“A Woman’s Life” (dir. Charline Bourgeois-Taquet)

UN CERTAIN REGARD

“Club Kid” (dir. Jordan Firstman)

“Congo Boy” (dir. Rafiki Fariala)

“Elephants in the Fog” (dir. Abinash Bikram Shah)

“Everytime” (dir. Sandra Wollner)

“I Am Always Your Maternal Animal” (dir. Valentina Maurel)

“I’ll Be Gone in June” (dir. Katharina Rivilis)

“Le Corset” (dir. Louis Clichy)

“The Meltdown” (dir. Manuela Martelli)

“Strawberries” (dir. Laïla Marrakchi)

“Teenage Sex and Death at Camp Miasma” (dir. Jane Schoenbrun)

“Yesterday the Eye Didn’t Sleep” (dir. Rakan Mayasi)

OUT OF COMPETITION

“De Gaulle: L’Age de Fer” (dir. Antonin Baudry)

“Diamond” (dir. Andy Garcia)

“The Electric Kiss” (dir. Pierre Salvadori)

“Her Private Hell” (dir. Nicolas Winding Refn)

“Karma” (dir. Guillaume Canet)

“L’Abandon” (dir. Vincent Garenq)

“L’Objet Du Delit” (dir. Agnes Jaoui)

MIDNIGHT SCREENINGS

“Colony” (dir. Yeon Sang-ho)

“Full Phil” (dir. Quentin Dupieux)

“Jim Queen and the Quest for Chloroqueer” (dir. Nicolas Athane and Marco Nguyen)

“Roma Elastica” (dir. Bertrand Mandico)

“Sanguine” (dir. Marion Le Coroller)

SPECIAL SCREENINGS

“Avedon” (dir. Ron Howard)

“John Lennon: The Last Interview” (dir. Steven Soderbergh)

“Les Matins  Merveilleux” (dir. Avril Besson)

“Les Survivants du Che” (dir. Christophe Réveille)

CANNES PREMIERE

“Heimsuchung” (dir. Volker Schlondorff)***

“Kokurojo: The Samurai and the Prisoner” (dir. Kiyoshi Kurosawa)

“Propeller One-Way Night Coach” (dir. John Travolta)

“The Third Night” (dir. Daniel Auteuil)

PHOTOS FROM CANNES' SELECTIONS

COWARD

FATHERLAND (1949)

VISITATION

FJORD

ALL OF A SUDDEN

MINOTAUR

THE UNKNOWN

According to Cannes head Thierry Fremaux per Next Best Picture, the lineup is 95% complete so other films will be added in the coming days.  So, films like Herzog' Bucking Fastard and Gray's Paper Tiger could still have their World Premiere next month in France.

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A Week Until Cannes Announces-Updates on Possible TFF Films

A WEEK UNTIL CANNES ANNOUNCES-UPDATES AND POSSIBLE TFF FILMS

With a week left until the Cannes Film Festival announces the bulk of its 2026 lineup...MTFB is laser focused on the titles that will be announced and their potential as possible choices for TFF #53.  To remind readers, the two fests commonly share about 6-8 titles every year.  Last year such films as Sentimental Value, The Secret Agent, The History of Sound, Nouvelle Vague, It Was Just an Accident, The Mastermind, Urchin, A Private Life and Pillion screened in France and then appeared in Telluride for TFF #52.

Recently Ioncinema posted two separate pieces focused on what might play at Cannes.  I have combined both to consolidate this list of TFF possibilities:

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov***

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kreutzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

The first Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-palme-dor-part-1

The second Ioncinema piece is linked here.

https://www.ioncinema.com/news/film-festivals/2026-cannes-film-festival-predictions-golden-palme-dor

Meanwhile, Jordan Ruimy has updated his Cannes predictions as of  last Monday.  His latest assessment includes what I think could be TFF titles:

1949 (Fatherland?)/Pawlikowski***/MUBI

All of a Sudden/Hamaguchi/NEON

Bitter Christmas/Almodovar***/Sony Pictures Classics

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

Fjord/Mungiu***/NEON

Gentle Monster/Kruetzer

Minotaur/Zvyagintsev***

Paper Tiger/Gray***

Parallel Tales/Farhadi***

Sheep in the Box/Kore-eda***/NEON

The Unknown/Harari/NEON

Here's Jordan's update.

https://www.worldofreel.com/blog/2026/3/30/variety-james-grays-paper-tiger-and-jane-schoenbruns-sex-and-death-at-camp-miasma-to-premiere-at-cannes

We'll know more next Thursday.

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