Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Well, here it is (Live from the 2026 National Speech and Debate Tournament in Richmond, VA.) the first Ten Bets for 2026 for TFF #53. I'm doing this a little differently than in the past in that I am listing the early versions of the Ten Bets in alphabetical order. In the later going, as we get closer to The SHOW, I'll revert to the traditional ranking in order of what I think the chances are of making a TFF appearance.
So here are the first guesses (10 of them) for films at TFF #53 (in the aforementioned alphabetical order):
The Black Ball
Bucking Fastard
Coward
The Debut
Fatherland
A Long Winter
Minotaur
Paper Tiger
The Story of Documentary Film
Yellow Letters
As the weeks unfold, I'll update every Thursday as new info and rumors swirl. Additionally, as we get closer to Labor Day, I'll also expand the list beyond a mere ten bets.
I'll remind readers that MTFB averages about six correct guesses on each year's initial Ten Bets. I also have to tell you that there are some titles here that I'd be very excited about seeing.
Let the next few weeks tell the story!
WORLD OF REEL ON VENICE TITLES
Jordan Ruimy has a list of possible Venice titles. Many MTFB readers know that each year a number of films play the early part of Venice and then make a blazing trans-continental trip to the San Juans.
From WOR's Venice speculative list, here's my take on what might make the trip:
The official poster for TFF #53 has been released:
BERKELEY, CA – Telluride Film Festival (September 4 – 7, 2026) is proud to announce British designer, filmmaker, and cultural curator Bella Freud as its poster artist for the 2026 Festival.
Bella Freud founded her eponymous label in 1990 and has become internationally recognized for her distinctive work across fashion, interiors, perfumery, filmmaking, and publishing. Known for her intelligent yet playful approach, Freud distills emotion and personal narrative throughout her collections, creating a singular visual language that resonates across disciplines.
Her iconic Word sweaters, including Ginsberg is God and 1970, have become contemporary classics worn by a devoted global following that includes Rosamund Pike, Rashida Jones, Alexa Chung, Kate Moss, and Rebecca Ferguson. Freud’s creative practice extends beyond fashion through collaborations with Marks & Spencer, King & McGaw, Nick Cave, and filmmaker John Malkovich, among many others.
In October 2024, Freud launched Fashion Neurosis with Bella Freud, a podcast exploring the relationship between fashion and identity through intimate and deeply personal conversations set in the atmosphere of her London sitting room. The series quickly reached number one in the UK arts podcast charts and entered the global top ten, featuring leading voices from fashion, film, music, and literature.
“The words Film Festival and Telluride are filled with promise and intrigue,” comments Freud. “Film is our modern mythology; it gives us courage and imagination. Telluride is the Shangri-La where some kind of conversation will take place that will change your life. SHOW.”
Festival director Julie Huntsinger adds, “Bella Freud possesses a rare ability to connect style, storytelling, and emotional truth with wit, intimacy, and extraordinary intelligence. Her work moves fluidly between disciplines while remaining deeply cinematic in spirit. We are thrilled to present Bella’s poster for the 53rd TFF, whose curiosity, perspective, and passion for culture brings a unique dimension to the collection.”
Each year, Telluride Film Festival welcomes artists whose work expands cultural conversation across disciplines and reflects the Festival’s enduring commitment to creativity and cinematic storytelling. Bella Freud joins a celebrated group of filmmakers, writers, musicians, and visual artists whose unique perspectives have contributed to the Festival’s ongoing history and artistic community including Daniel Clowes, Jim Dine, Maira Kalman, Ed Ruscha, Julian Schnabel, among others.
About Telluride Film Festival
The prestigious Telluride Film Festival ranks among the world’s best film festivals and is an annual gathering for film industry insiders, cinema enthusiasts, filmmakers, and critics. TFF is considered a major launching ground for the fall season’s most talked-about films. Founded in 1974, Telluride Film Festival, presented in the beautiful mountain town of Telluride, Colorado, is a four-day international educational event celebrating the art of film. Telluride Film Festival’s long-standing commitment is to join filmmakers and film connoisseurs together to experience great cinema. The exciting schedule, kept secret until just before Opening Day, consists of over three dozen filmmakers presenting their newest works, special Guest Director programs, major Tributes to guest artists, special events, and remarkable treasures from the past. Telluride Film Festival is a 501(c)(3) non-profit educational program. Festival headquarters are in Berkeley, CA.
THE SOCIAL RECKONING HAS A TRAILER
On the outer edge of the MTFB watch list is Aaron Sorkin's The Social Reckoning, It's the sequel to The Social Network written by Sorkin and directed by David Fincher back in 2010. The new film stars Jeremy Strong as Mark Zuckerberg. Here's the trailer from YouTube:
The film has is set for release on Oct. 9th.
THE STORY OF DOCUMENTARY FILM HAS A POSTER
I'm not saying Mark Cousins' The Story of Documentary Film is a lock for TFF #53 but I'd be surprised if it didn't play the Fest. Here's a bit of a peek with a photo of the film's poster from Cousins' X account:
RELEASE DATE FOR FATHERLAND
Numerous sources reporting that Pawel Pawlikowski's Fatherland will release in the United States on Oct. 23rd. That's a release window that would easily allow a screening at TFF.
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Though we're only through the first few days of the Cannes International Film Festival, we're already seeing the emergence of some potential prize-winners for the fest. Here's the early version of the Screen Daily panel of critics:
SCREEN DAILY
As you can see the early films making a mark here are Pawlikowskis' Fatherland and Hamaguchi's all of a Sudden. Both films have been fairly consistently on the various lists I have posted since the Oscar ceremony and before. Meanwhile. Ioncinema's chart echoes the status of both Father land and All of a Sudden:
Meanwhile, we're awaiting a sufficient number of reviews to be accumulated at Cannes-ratings.org to truly make any assumption regarding where films are truly standing withe regard to that metric.
Couple of other notes here. Both Farhadi's Parallel Tales, Kore-eda's Sheep in a Box and Kruetzer's Gentle Monster seem on shaky ground as regards prizes at Cannes and perhaps as contenders for TFF #53.
COUSINS NEW DOCUMENTARY (ABOUT DOCUMENTARIES) GETS DISTRIBUTION
Telluride regular Marc Cousins (The Story of Film, A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things among several others) has garnered distribution for his next project: The Story of Documentary Film) Kino Lorber has nabbed the North American rights for the 16 part doc about docs.
The question as to its possible appearance at Telluride rises from its inclusion at Sundance earlier this year. My best guess is that owing to Cousins frequent presence at TFF and his current position as a Resident Curator and his past position on the fest's Board of Advisors. as well as being a TFF Tributee in 2022...my bet is we get some of the 16 episodes.
