Cannes Has Begun / Four Films on the Edge: Blue Moon, Anemone, Bucking Fastard and Welcome to Lynchland

CANNES HAS BEGUN

The 78th Cannes Film Festival opened last Tuesday and will run though May 24th.  TFF watchers know that it's likely that anywhere from 6-10 films screening there the next few days will probably end up in Telluride over Labor Day.  That's been the trend for some time.  One of the things I'll be doing over the next few posts is checking to see how critics respond.  Several film outlets will be posting composite critical responses and I traditionally keep track some of those and report them but the Big Daddy of all Cannes compilations comes from cannes-ratings.org.  

So this week I took a moment to try to calibrate what that compilation has told us over the years.  What I did was to look for the lowest rated film that played at Cannes that also played Telluride.  My thought was that perhaps by doing that we might establish some critical baseline for where the cutoff is below which it's unlikely a film will be selected for Telluride inclusion.

Thus here are the lowest rated films from Cannes for each year (going back to 2011) that made it to TFF.  Cannes-ratings uses a 1-10 scale.

2024-Santosh-5.97

2023-Strange way of Life-5.58

2022-Tori and Lokita-6.11

2021-Unclenching the Fist-6.08

2019-Family Romance LLC-5.68

2018-The Eyes of Orson Welles-6.11

2017-An Inconvenient Sequel-5.75

2016-Neruda-6.58

2015-Rams-5.10

2014-Wild Tales-5.41

2013-Jororowsky's Dune-5.55

2012-Paradise:Love-5.03

2011-Bonsai-5.00

As you can see, the outliers are Neruda at the top and Bonsai and Paradise: Love at the bottom.  The average rating to claim the last Cannes to T-ride spot is at 5.69.  So, if you want to check what the critical reception at Cannes, that might be a spot to think that anything below that has a lesser chance to get to Telluride.

One other point, since it's still so early in the Cannes fest most of the films only have a very few reviews as yet. As Cannes rolls on those films will gather more and more critical responses and you can get a better idea for where a film may end up.  For example, the film at the top of the list right now is Love Me Tender with a 9.12 cumulative rating but it's only been reviewed by four critics...so grain of salt.

Monday's MTFB will have my first real look.

FOUR FILMS ON THE EDGE:

Four films on the periphery of my analysis of what goes to Telluride had moments this week that, at the very least, didn't hurt their chances of playing Telluride.

Richard Linklater's Blue Moon- The film's release dates were announced this week.  It will have a limited release on Oct. 17th followed by a wider release on Oct. 24th.  Linklater has never been to TFF as far as I can discern which works against the notion that it will play Telluride.  However, it does have some things working in its favor.  These release dates for one.  Also, a good critical response from Berlin where it also picked up for Andrew Scott for Best Supporting Performance. It's from Sony Pictures Classics and it stars Ethan Hawke who is often a TFF attendee.

Ronan Day-Lewis's Anemone- Like Blue Moon, Anemone's release dates were also announced this week and leave open the possibility for T-ride.  Anemone will open limited on Oct. 3rd and wide on Oct. 10th.  The film stars past TFF tribute recipient Daniel Day-Lewis who also co-wrote the screenplay.  Day-Lewis first attended TFF in 1989 with My Left Foot and returned for his tribute in 2007 with some scenes from There Will Be Blood.  He won Best Actor Oscars for both of those performances.  Another factor working in favor of a TFF play is that the distributor is Focus Features which has been a reliable Telluride player for years.

Werner Herzog's Bucking Fastard-  Herzog has possibly been the most screened director at Telluride over the years and The Playlist reports:

"Production took place in Ireland (hence the “Irish landscape”) and Slovenia, having wrapped filming last month, as the film is now heading to the Cannes Film Market with the aim of sharing footage with potential buyers."

So it may be ready for a San Juan screening.

Stephane Ghez's Welcome to Lynchland-Played Yesterday at the Cannes Fest with David Lynch's son, Riley introducing it.  The documentary about Lynch's career and films feels like it could be right down TFF's alley given Lynch's stature and his early participation with TFF.

More on Monday.

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Cannes Lineup Revealed / Could These Three Films Play TFF #52?

 CANNES LINEUP REVEALED

Early this morning Thierry Fremaux announced the lineup for this year's Cannes Film Festival.  Here are the films announced for the various sections:

In Competition:

The History of Sound/Hermanus

A Simple Accident/Panahi

The Mastermind/Reichardt

Young Mothers/Dardenne Brothers

Un Certain Regard:

Eleanor the Great/Johansson

Special Screenings:

The Magnificent Life of Marcel Pagnol/Chomet

Cannes Premiere:

The Disappearance of Joseph Mengele/Serebrennikov

Orwell/Peck

Splitsville/Covino

The Wave/Lelio

As always, we look to Cannes for clues about films that could have their North American Premiere at Telluride on Labor day weekend.  From the above it feels like, sight unseen, that these films have a chance to be at TFF #52:

Meanwhile, some films that had been speculated were not announced this morning including:

After the Hunt/Guadagnino

The Chronology of Water/Stewart

Die, My Love/Ramsay

Hamnet/Zhao

The Love That Remains/Palmason

Orphan/Nemes

The Way of the Wind/Malick

Remember, though, Cannes is notorious for adding films to their schedule after their opening announcement.

Of course what happens at Cannes does affect what may or may not be selected.  I pay close attention to how critics react to films at Cannes, and to some extent the awards results at the end of the fest to calibrate what may come down the pike.

The complete lineup announced this morning is here from Indiwire.

*****Late Breaking...Despite having not been officially announced by Cannes this morning, Spike Lee revealed via social media that his Highest 2 Lowest will premiere there Out of Competition.

COULD THESE THREE FILMS PLAY TFF #52?

(Rooney Mara and Kate Mara filming Bucking Fastard for Werner Herzog)

Could Werner Herzog finish his new film quickly enough for a TFF #52 debut?  World of Reel reports that filming is currently underway in Dublin, Ireland.  Herzog has been known to be able to move quickly in the past.  So, maybe?

World of Reel also reports that Kathryn Bigelow's first feature in eight years is aiming for a fall fest debut.  The article mentions Telluride as a possible landing place.

And finally, I have been hesitant to consider Bennie Safdie's The Smashing Machine as a TFF #52 possibility but The Film Stage reports that the film has an Oct. 3rd release date which would fit in nicely after a TFF screening.  

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MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting Oscar Winners: Cinematography and More / Future TFF Selection? / Interviews and Profiles: Conclave

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: CINEMATOGRAPHY AND MORE

As the Emilia Perez series of provocations and scandals seems to be winding down in intensity, we're starting to see some actual effects regarding what could happen on Oscar night.  Here are the first predictions for winners in Cinematography, Editing, Production Design, Score and Song.  As usual, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) The Brutalist

2) Dune: Part Two

3) Nosferatu

4) Maria

5) Emilia Perez

BEST EDITING

1) Conclave

2) Anora

3) The Brutalist

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) The Brutalist

3) Dune: Part Two

4) Conclave

5) Nosferatu

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Brutalist

2) Conclave

3) The Wild Robot

4) Emilia Perez

5) Wicked

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) El Mal/Emilia Perez

2) The Journey/The Six Triple Eight

3) Mi Camino/Emilia Perez

4) Like A Bird/Sing Sing

5) Never Too Late/Never Too Late

Comments:  Tightest category among these five is Editing where Conclave is barely in front of Anora and The Brutalist is close too.  If Conclave wins this and Adapted Screenplay...well...could be a good night in the end for Conclave.

The Emilia Perez blowback does not seem to have been particularly bad in Best Song.  We'll see if that's still true two weeks from now when we re-visit these five categories.  Diane Warren's shot to finally win an Oscar for songwriting has a real possibility of happening.

Speaking of low blowback for Emilia Perez in Best Song, you have to wonder if Zoe Saldana might still have a chance for Best Supporting Actress.  We'll look at that category again next week.

FUTURE TFF SELECTION?

Of note yesterday was news from both Deadline and The Film Stage that TFF regular and member of TFF's Council of Advisors Werner Herzog will be soon filming a new feature film.  That by itself would be enough to merit it going on a future TFF watch list.  But the reporting revealed that the film will star Rooney Mara and Kate Mara.

Rooney is past TFF tribute recipient.  She was honored in 2015.  Todd Haynes Carol screened at TFF as a part of that tribute.  I have been told that Rooney loves the fest and has returned since the 2015 honor.

She attended in 2016 with Una and again in  2022 with Women Talking.

The new film is reportedly titled Bucking Fastard and is described by The Film Stage as: 

"...based on the true story of inseparable twin sisters Joan and Jean, drawing from the lives of Freda and Greta Chaplin, who became sexually infatuated with their next-door neighbor and eventually received a restraining order. The title of the film, which begins production this spring in Ireland and Slovenia, is based on a simultaneous verbal slip the twins made in court."

The Film Stage article (Linked above) also digs into Herzog's most recent book, Every Man for Himself and God Against All: A Memoir, and provides considerable detail about the two sisters.

INETRVIEWS AND PROFILES

Conclave producers Ross and Howell for the film from Variety.

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