Ten Bets #6 for TFF #51 / Two Go Away / Two (Maybe) Get Added / Is it Possible?

TEN BETS #6 FOR TFF #51

Well, the hints hit hard this week with the Toronto and Venice Fests announcing the bulk of their 2024 lineups.  New York also got into the act by announcing their opening night film: RaMell Ross' Nickel Boys-with its conspicuous absence of a premiere designation in the media release.  Needless to say...we know more now than we did a week ago.

Here's what the "Ten Bets" and other possibilities looked like last week:

1) Anora/Baker

2) Conclave/Berger

3) Emilia Perez/Jacques Audiard

4) The Room Next Door/Pedro Almodovar

5) The Seed of the Scared Fig/Mohammad Rasoulof

6) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

7) Nickel Boys/Ross

8) Maria/Pablo Larrain

9) Queer/Luca Guadagnino

10) Bird/Arnold

Other possibilities:

The End/Oppenheimer

I'm Still Here/Salles

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Hard Truths/Leigh

The Piano Lesson/Washington

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

Oh, Canada/Schrader

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975

All We Imagine as Light

Memoir of a Snail

Now, here's the update:

1) Anora/Baker

2) Conclave/Berger

3) Emilia Perez/Audiard

4) The End/Oppenheimer

5) All We Imagine as Light/Kapadia

6) The Piano Lesson/Washington

7) Misrecordia/Guiraudie

8) Nickel Boys/Ross

9) Better Man/Gracey

10) Piece by Piece/Neville

And a Bonus Five Bets:

11) The Seed of the Sacred Fig/Rasoulof

12) A Sudden Glimpse to Deeper Things/Cousins

13) The Apprentice/Abassi

14) The Friend/Siegel and McGeehee

15) Don't Let's Go to the Dogs Tonight/Davitz

Other possibilities:

Maria/Larrain

Parthenope/Sorrentino

In the Hand of Dante/Schnabel

Untitled Noah Baumbach

Megalopolis/Coppola

Napoleon (new restoration)/Gance

Leonardo DaVinci/Burns

The Actor/Johnson

SNL 1975/Reitman

Memoir of a Snail/Elliot

Babygirl/Reijn

Separated/Morris

One on One: John and Yoko/ Macdonald and Rice-Edwards

Harvest/Tsangari

Allegorie Citadine/ Rohrwacher and JR

My most anticipated: Nickel Boys and Conclave.  I'd really love to see Jason Reitman's SNL 1975 make it into the lineup.

TWO GO AWAY

Venice Film Festival Artistic Director Alberto Barbera revealed in a post-announcement interview with Deadline that both Luca Guadagnino's Queer and Pedro Almodovar's The Room Next Door will be scheduled to screen the second week of the fest.  That means we can take both of those films off the board and explains why they're no longer among the "Ten Bets" or other possibilities.

Here's the relevant comment from the Deadline post:

"DEADLINE: You said this morning that we’d have to wait into the second week of the festival to see some of the big movies…

BARBERA: Yes, it was a matter of timing and schedules. The Almodóvar, Joker and Queer will be in the second half of the festival. Joker 2 will most likely be on Wednesday, for example."

The complete Deadline interview is here.

TWO (MAYBE) GET ADDED

I went through about a four hour period on Tuesday about two films that had "going to Telluride" buzz.  I wasn't quite ready to jump in and add them but Jordan Ruimy, following some of the same buzz posted this yesterday at his World of Reel website:

"I can confirm that Ali Abassi’s “The Apprentice” will be having its North American premiere at Telluride. The Donald Trump biopic still has no U.S. distribution, although a deal is on the table with Briarcliffe Entertainment — you can read more about this story here."

Later in the post Ruimy writes:

"Meanwhile, Jason Reitman’s “SNL 1975,” which recounts the 24 hours leading up to the premiere of the first Saturday Night Live episode, is close to being added to the Telluride lineup as a world premiere."

Sooo...The Apprentice from Ali Abassi and possibly SNL 1975 from Jason Reitman on their way to the San Juans?

Here's Ruimy's complete rundown on the Telluride lineup.

IS IT POSSIBLE?

Searchlight has dropped a teaser for its Bob Dylan biopic A Complete Unknown.  Indiewire reports that the film has been dated for a December release.  Here's the teaser:

Searchlight has looked like it probably wouldn't be represented this year at TFF since the announcement that Nightbitch was World Premiering at Toronto.  I'd really all but written off anything else (see my post from June 17th).

Sooo...could this be ready?  Searchlight has a long history with Telluride and writer/director James Mangold screened Walk the Line and Ford v. Ferrari at past fests.

Then there's this from Scott Menzel of We Live Entertainment posting on X yesterday:

Do I think it could happen?  It would be an incredibly fast turnaround.  If IMDb Pro is to be believed, the film was largely shot in 2023 and had an additional nine days of shooting in early to mid June of this year.  

So, again, do I think it could happen?  Not really, but....what if it did?

And, by the way, I love the teaser.

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Another Early Oscar Look / Will Abel Screen at Abel? / Speaking of Cannes...

ANOTHER EARLY OSCAR LOOK

Joey Magidson of Awards Radar has posted his first set of picks for the 2025 Oscars and as has been my way, I've looked through them for possible TFF #51 titles.  Magidson has divided them into two parts.  Part One went up last Friday focusing on "Above the Line" categories.  Part Two will be posted later this week.

Here's what I'm seeing from Part One beginning with films Magidson thinks are Best Picture contenders:

Blitz-Steve McQueen

Conclave-Edward Berger

Maria-Pablo Larrain

The Nickel Boys-Ross

SNL 1975-Reitman

Queer-Gaudagnino

Bird-Arnold

The End-Oppenheimer

The Apprentice-Abbasi

The Piano Lesson-Washington

From the other "Above the Line" Categories:

Megalopolis-Coppola

The Actor-Johnson

We Live in Time-Crowley

Here's the link to Magidson's post.

WILL ABEL SCREEN AT ABEL?

News this week that a newly restores print of Abel Gance's monumental silent film Napoleon will lead off the Cannes Classics section on May 14th.

From Cannes' press release:

"A legend known to cinephiles the world over, a major work of the silent era, one of the most monumental restorations in the history of filmmaking will be unveiled on May 14 as a world premiere: Napoléon by Abel Gance (1st period), in a version resulting from a colossal, passionate effort by the Cinémathèque française, with the support of the CNC."

Naturally that makes one think that the restoration could be a natural choice for TFF.  I can see this screening at Elk Park which is re-christened the Abel Gance Open Air Cinema each year for the festival.

The entire press release is here.

AND SPEAKING OF CANNES...

Here's the official poster for the 77th Edition of the Cannes Film Festival:

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More Cannes Thoughts / The Cannes-Oscar Scoreboard

MORE CANNES THOUGHTS 

With a week left until the announcement of the lineup for the 77th edition of the Cannes Film Festival, I've added a look at analysis from Deadline as to what may be in and out.

Those films that Deadline mentions that feel like a Telluride possibility include:

Parthenope- Dir: Paolo Sorrentino

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger

Touch- Dir: Baltasar Kormakur

Deadline also mentions Frances ford Coppola's Megalopolis is still possible but uncertain due to Coppola's aiming for an IMAX release.

The piece also includes a listing of a number of films that have had Cannes speculation that likely will not be in France in May including:

Pablo Larrain's Maria

Sean Baker's Anora

Paul Schrader's Oh, Canada

Mike Leigh's Hard Truths

Luca Guadagnino's Queer

Joshua Oppenheimer's The End

Ali Abbasi' The Apprentice

Jacques Audiard's Emilia Perez

And one other surprising Telluride related nugget:  Deadline suggests that Jeff Nichol's The Bikeriders which played at TFF #50 might actually get a slot at Cannes.  Author Andreas Wiseman writes:

"Another movie in the wildcard section of this discussion is Jeff Nichols’ The Bikeriders, which is being discussed by insiders for a potential slot somewhere in the lineup. On paper, this seems an unlikely choice given that it launched at North American festivals and at London last year but Nichols has history with Cannes and the starry movie isn’t released until June. The door isn’t shut on this one."

That would be a wild reversal of the often occurring Cannes to Telluride pipeline.

The complete Deadline post is here.

THE CANNES-OSCAR SCOREBOARD

Beginning with my March 14th post I have been scouring early Oscar predictions and Cannes spec pieces for clues about films which could be potential selections for TFF #51.  I'll have a couple of more Cannes looks on Monday next week prior to the actual announcement from France.  right now, though, these are the films that have shown up on the lists most frequently and how many times they've been mentioned:

Magalopolis (7)

Bird (6)

Conclave (6)

Maria (6)

Parthenope (5)

The End (5)

The Apprentice (5)

Blitz (5)

The Piano Lesson (5)

Queer (5)

Emilia Perez (4)

The Actor (4)

The Nickel Boys (4)

Long Day's Journey Into Night (4)

Anora (3)

Hard Truths (3)

SNL 1975 (2)

Oh, Canada (2)

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Vanity Fair's Too Early Oscar Picks and TFF / Cannes Speculation and TFF / The Best Docs of the 21st Century and TFF

VANITY FAIR'S TOO EARLY OSCAR PICKS AND TFF

I'm continuing my current project of scouring early Oscar prognostications for possible titles that might pop up at the 51st Telluride Film Festival.  Today's source is Joe Reid of Vanity Fair. These predicted films seem to me to have the best chance at TFF (listed in the order they are presented in the article):

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Hard Truths- Dir: Mike Leigh

Blitz- Dir: Steve McQueen

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Conclave- Dir: Edward Berger

The Actor- Dir: Duke Johnson

The Piano Lesson- Dir: Malcolm Washington

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

The Nickel Boys- Dir: RaMell Ross

Queer; Dir: Luca Guadagnino

Long Day's Journey Into Night- Dir: Jonathan Kent

The Apprentice- Dir: Ali Abbasi

SNL 1975- Dir: Jason Reitman

The complete list of Vanity Fair predictions is linked here.

CANNES SPECULATION AND TFF

In addition to Oscar speculation as a way to sense some of the films that could be on their way to Telluride, the films that are selected for inclusion at the Cannes Film Festival merit investigation.

Each year there are a number of films that end up playing at Cannes in May and again as a North American premiere at TFF.  Last year I logged 10 films that played both fests including Anatomy of a Fall, The Zone of Interest and The Teachers' Lounge.  The average is around eight per year.

So, to begin that part of the process, I took a look at Screen Daily's annual Cannes speculation  article that was posted a week ago.  Screen Daily divides its list geographically.  That said, here are what feel like films that could possibly make the Cannes/Telluride connection:

Anora- Dir: Sean Baker

Maria- Dir: Pablo Larrain

Megalopolis- Dir: Frances Ford Coppola

Bird- Dir: Andrea Arnold

The End- Dir: Joshua Oppenheimer

Emilia Perez-Jacques Audiard

Dear Paris- Dir: Marjane Satrapi

The complete Screen Daily article is linked here.

THE BEST DOCS OF THE 21ST CENTURY AND TFF

Indiewire posted a list of what they have determined to be the 52 best documentaries of the 21st century.  Not surprisingly a good number of the films that made the list also made an appearance at the Telluride Film Festival.

Here's the list of docs from the top 52 that screened at TFF.  These are listed in reverse order by where Indiewire ranked them.  The year the doc appeared at Telluride is indicated to the title's right in parentheses:

43) The Central Park Five (2012)\

31) Procession (2021)

29) Fire at Sea (2016)

17) Waltz with Bashir (2008)

13) Bowling for Columbine (2002)

10) The Look of Silence (2015)

9) Stories We Tell (2013)

6) Faces Places (2017)

5) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (2022)

4) Flee (2021)

1) The Act of Killing (2013)

The complete list of 52 including description and analysis is linked here.

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