MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING OSCAR WINNERS: SCREENPLAYS AND MORE
MTFB continues today with trying to predict the Oscar winners for 2025. Five more categories are added today. As always TFF films are in Bold.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
1) Conclave
2) A Complete Unknown
3) Nickel Boys
4) Emilia Perez
5) Sing Sing
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
1) Anora
2) The Brutalist
3) The Substance
4) A Real Pain
5) September 5
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
1) I'm Still Here
2) The Seed of the Sacred fig
3) Emilia Perez
4) Flow
5) The Girl with the Needle
ANIMATED FEATURE
1) The Wild Robot
2) Flow
3) Inside Out 2
4) Wallace and Gromet: Vengeance Most Fowl
5) Memoir of a Snail
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
1) No Other Land
2) Sugarcane
3) Black Box Diaries
4) Porcelain War
5) Soundtrack to a Coup d'Etat
THE EMILIA PEREZ SAGA
Hoo boy...Emilia Perez 13 Oscar nominations...most of any film this year. Tied for second most all time. And after this last week...likely not going to win a single one. Initially signaling trouble was big time negative reactions from a number of communities reflected in the film as well as criticism that the film, set in Mexico, had almost no input or participation from Mexican natives/
Then came the reveal of a number of posts from the movie's lead Karla Sofia Gascon...that were incendiary to say the least.
Last Thursday I had it nominally winning Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress. Now, based on nominations and such, had this past week not happened, it could have also won: International Feature and Original Song as well. Now, I suspect, the film is fried. 13 nominations and no wins anywhere.
Emilia Perez was always going to be a hard sell for Best Picture but in an year that has been fractured in terms of Oscar predicting, the film with 13 nominations seemed like the best bet. Now???It's the Wild West in Oscarland.
In the Best Picture race, Emilia Perez's woes benefit Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave and A Complete Unknown. I won't predict the Best Picture again officially until Feb. 13th. That said, I feel that Conclave and A Complete Unknown have the best chance to gain from what's been going on.
In Emilia's other three categories that it could have won...
Best Supporting Actress: If there is one category that might survive the blowback, this is it. Zoe Saldana has been so far out front for so long maybe she escapes with the trophy. Otherwise, congrats Ariana Grande.
Best International Film: Congrats to I'm Still Here. We already had figured out that The Academy likes this film a lot with it also being nominated for Best Picture and Best Actress (where Fernanda Torres could actually win).
Best Song: Does Diane Warren actually win on her 16th nomination? Maybe so. Assuming both El Mal and Mi Camino are sunk you're left with her song from The Six Triple Eight, Elton John's tune and the song from Sing Sing.
Ultimately, as this space is about Telluride films, this mess likely decreases TFF film's overall success on Oscar night.
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