MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: WINNERS PREDICTIONS: ABOVE THE LINE
The difference two weeks can make. Since the last posting of theses six "Above the Line" categories, the Karla Sofia Gascon implosion has done major damage to the Oscar chances of Emilia Perez and the 1-2-3 blitz from last weekend of Anora winning Best Picture from the Critics' Choice as well as the Producers' Guild and the directing trophy from the Directors' Guild has re-shaped the Oscar map. Here's where we are as of this morning. As always TTFF films are Bold and a film/performer's position from the last set of predictions is indicated in parentheses to the right.
BEST PICTURE
1) Anora (4)
2) Conclave (3)
3) A Complete Unknown (5)
4) The Brutalist (2)
5) Wicked (6)
6) Emilia Perez (1)
7) The Substance (7)
8) I'm Still Here (10)
9) Dune Part Two (9)
10) Nickel Boys (8)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Sean Baker/Anora (3)
2) Brady Corbet/The Brutalist (1)
3) James Mangold/A Complete Unknown (4)
4) Coralie Fargeat/The Substance (5)
5) Jacques Audiard/Emilia Perez (2)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Demi Moore/The Substance (1)
2) Fernanda Torres/I'm Still Here (3)
3) Mikey Madison/Anora (3)
4) Cynthia Erivo/Wicked (5)
5) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (4)
BEST ACTOR
1) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)
2) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (1)
3) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (3)
4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (4)
5) Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice (5)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Zoe Saldana/Emilia Perez (1)
2) Ariana Grande/Wicked (2)
3) Monica Barbaro/A Complete Unknown (4)
4) Isabella Rossellini/Conclave (3)
5) Felicity Jones/The Brutalist (5)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain (1)
2) Edward Norton/A Complete Unknown (2)
3) Yura Borisov/Anora (4)
4) Guy Pearce/The Brutalist (3)
5) Jeremy Strong/The Apprentice (5)
Comment: As of today's post, MTFB is predicting TFF #51 films to win of these six categories: Picture, Direction and both Supporting Acting awards.
Anora's ascendance is clear as is the Emilia Perez debacle. I was actually surprised that Emilia Perez only dropped to #6 in Best Picture and the Zoe Saldana remains viable for a Best Supporting Actress film for the film.
Oscar voting is open and we wait to hear from the BAFTAs on Sunday.
LOOKING FORWARD TO CANNES
Jordan Ruimy of World of Reel has his annual speculation list up and running for films that might be selected for Cannes. As I always like to do at this time of year, I checked it put to see what titles jumped out as possible considerations for TFF #52. From his lengthy list, here are some films that could screen at Cannes and then make the trip to southwestern Colorado (the order is as they appear in Ruimy's piece):
Die, My Love (Ramsay)
The Mastermind/Reichardt
The Way of the Wind (Malick)
Young Mother (Dardennes)
Orphan (Nemes)
The Love That Remains (Palmason)
The Magnificent Life of Sylvain Pagnol (Chomet)
Bugonia (Lanthimos)
In the Hands of Dante (Schnabel)
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