MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR
Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd. I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday. As always, TFF films are in Bold.
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
1) Wicked
2) Conclave
3) Nosferatu
4) A Complete Unknown
5) Gladiator II
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
1) The Substance
2) Wicked
3) Emilia Perez
4) A Different Man
5) Nosferatu
BEST SOUND DESIGN
1) A Complete Unknown
2) Wicked
3) Dune Part Two
4) Emilia Perez
5) The Wild Robot
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Dune Part Two
2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
3) Wicked
4) Better Man
5) Alien: Romulus
Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely. Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound. A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat. It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.
CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF
The Critics Choice awards were presented on Friday. TFF #51 films won seven awards total including a Best Picture win for Sean Baker's Anora.
Other TFF winners included:
Conclave: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Acting Ensemble.
A Real Pain: Best Comedy (tied with Deadpool & Wolverine), and Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin).
Emilia Perez: Best Foreign Language Film and Best Song (El Mal).
DIRECTORS' GUILD AND PRODUCERS' GUILD
Probably the most important Guild awards named their "Best of" 2024 on Saturday and both organizations awarded the same film. Sean Baker won the DGA Best Director for a Feature Film award for Anora. The PGA also awarded Anora as Best Picture. The PGA is very interesting as it uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy does for Best Picture.
Also winning the DGA Award for Best First Time Feature was RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, which, of course, was also a TFF #51 film.
With the three wins over the weekend, DGA, PGA and Critic's Choice, Anora will surely come raring back to the top of the list of predictions for Best Picture (My updated Best Picture predictions will be posted on Thursday). It seems difficult to concoct plausible scenario for any other picture at this point.
Anora's stunning set of wins this past weekend also suggests that Mikey Madison is firmly in a real tussle for Best Actress with Demi Moore. Moore had surged over the past few weeks.
As a matter of fact, Anora could be in line to win five of the six Oscars it's nominated for. I could see it taking Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and even Editing. The exception likely being in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin seems almost unbeatable and if anyone has any shot at knocking him off the Oscar stage it's probably Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown rather than Anora's Yura Borisov.
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