MTFB Oscar Update: Predicting the Winners Part Four / Critics Choice and TFF / Director's Guild and Producer's Guild

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: PREDICTING THE WINNERS PART FOUR

Here's the last set of initial predictions for what will win at the Oscar ceremony on March 2nd.  I'll have fresh predictions for Best Picture, Direction and the Acting categories on Thursday.  As always, TFF films are in Bold.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

1) Wicked

2) Conclave

3) Nosferatu

4) A Complete Unknown

5) Gladiator II

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

1) The Substance

2) Wicked

3) Emilia Perez

4) A Different Man

5) Nosferatu  

BEST SOUND DESIGN

1) A Complete Unknown

2) Wicked

3) Dune Part Two

4) Emilia Perez

5) The Wild Robot

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Dune Part Two

2) Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

3) Wicked

4) Better Man

5) Alien: Romulus

Comment: Among these four categories, TFF's best shot at a win looks to be Conclave in costumes and even that seems fairly unlikely.  Maybe the tightest category of any is Sound.  A Complete Unknown, Wicked and Dune Part Two seem to be in dead heat.  It'll be interesting to see if that changes over the next couple of weeks when we re-visit these categories.

CRITICS CHOICE AND TFF

The Critics Choice awards were presented on Friday.  TFF #51 films won seven awards total including a Best Picture win for Sean Baker's Anora.

Other TFF winners included:

Conclave: Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Acting Ensemble.

A Real Pain: Best Comedy (tied with Deadpool & Wolverine), and Supporting Actor (Kieran Culkin).

Emilia Perez: Best Foreign Language Film and Best Song (El Mal).

DIRECTORS' GUILD AND PRODUCERS' GUILD

Probably the most important Guild awards named their "Best of" 2024 on Saturday and both organizations awarded the same film.  Sean Baker won the DGA Best Director for a Feature Film award for Anora.  The PGA also awarded Anora as Best Picture.  The PGA is very interesting as it uses a preferential ballot just like the Academy does for Best Picture.

Also winning the DGA Award for Best First Time Feature was RaMell Ross for Nickel Boys, which, of course, was also a TFF #51 film.

With the three wins over the weekend, DGA, PGA and Critic's Choice, Anora will surely come raring back to the top of the list of predictions for Best Picture (My updated Best Picture predictions will be posted on Thursday).  It seems difficult to concoct plausible scenario for any other picture at this point.  

Anora's stunning set of wins this past weekend also suggests that Mikey Madison is firmly in a real tussle for Best Actress with Demi Moore. Moore had surged over the past few weeks.

As a matter of fact, Anora could be in line to win five of the six Oscars it's nominated for.  I could see it taking Picture, Direction, Actress, Original Screenplay and even Editing.  The exception likely being in Supporting Actor where Kieran Culkin seems almost unbeatable and if anyone has any shot at knocking him off the Oscar stage it's probably Edward Norton for A Complete Unknown rather than Anora's Yura Borisov.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Lead Acting and More / New York Film Critics and TFF / Independent Spirit Awards and TFF / National Board of Review and TFF / Gotham Awards and TFF /

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: LEAD ACTING AND MORE

I'm updating the Lead Acting categories today and adding three other categories going forward: Cinematography, Editing and Production Design.  The acting categories were last updated on Nov. 21st.  An actor's previous position is indicated in (parentheses).  TFF #51 films are in Bold. 

BEST ACTRESS

1) Mikey Madison/Anora (1)

2) Angelina Jolie/Maria (2)

3) Karla Sofia Gascon/Emilia Perez (3)

4) Saoirse Ronan/The Outrun (5)

5) Marianne Jean-Baptiste/Hard Truths (-)

Others: Nicole Kidman/Babygirl, Demi Moore/The Substance and Cynthia Erivo/Wicked.

BEST ACTOR

1) Ralph Fiennes/Conclave (1)

2) Adrien Brody/The Brutalist (2)

3) Timothee Chalamet/A Complete Unknown (4)

4) Colman Domingo/Sing Sing (3)

5) Daniel Craig/Queer (5)

Others: Paul Mescal/Gladiator II, Sebastian Stan/The Apprentice and Jesse Eisenberg/ A Real Pain.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

1) Dune Part Two

2) The Brutalist

3) Maria

4) Nosferatu

5) Gladiator II

Others: Conclave, Emilia Perez and Nickel Boys.

BEST EDITING

1) The Brutalist

2) Anora

3) Emilia Perez

4) Dune Part Two

5) Conclave

Others: Gladiator II, September 5 and Wicked.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Dune Part Two

2) Wicked

3) Gladiator II

4) The Brutalist

5) Blitz

Others: Conclave, Nosferatu and A Complete Unknown.

NEW YORK CRITICS AND TFF

TFF films had a good day Tuesday with a number awards from The New York Film Critics Circle.

Best Director: RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys

Best Supporting Actor: Kieran Culkin/A Real Pain

Best Screenplay: Sean Baker/Anora

Best International Feature: All We Imagine as Light

Best Cinematography: Nickel Boys

Best Non-Fiction Film: No Other Land

Best First Film: Janet Planet (TFF #50)

The Brutalist was named Best Film of 2024.

The complete list of winners is here from the NYFCC website.

INDEPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS NOMINATIONS AND TFF

Fully nine TFF films received at least Independent Spirit Award nomination yesterday.  The nine films totaled 20 nominations collectively led by Anora's five.  Here's the breakdown by film:

Anora (5): Best Feature, Direction, Performance (Madison), Supporting Performance (Burisov) and another Supporting Performance (Karagulian).

The Apprentice (3): Best Direction, Editing.

Janet Planet (from TFF #50) (3): Best First Feature, First Screenplay and Cinematography.

Nickel Boys (2): Best Feature and Cinematography.

A Real Pain (2): Best Screenplay and Supporting Performance (Culkin).

The Piano Lesson (2): Best First Feature and Supporting Performance (Deadwyler).

September 5 (1): Best Editing.

No Other Land (1): Best Documentary.

All We Imagine as Light (1); Best International Feature.

Here's the complete list of all nominees from FilmIndependent.org

NATIONAL BOARD OF REVIEW AND TFF

The National Board of Review released its annual list of best films from the year yesterday. TFF films fared well. from their various categories:

Top Ten Films included Anora, Conclave and A Real Pain.

Top Five international Films included: All We Imagine as Light and Santosh.

Top Five Documentaries included: Will and Harper.

Top Ten Independent Films included: Bird.

Among acting awards Conclave was named Best Ensemble.  Kieran Culkin was named Best Supporting Actor for A Real Pain and Mikey Madison was named Breakthrough Performance for Anora.

Other Special Awards for TFF films included anming The Seed of the Sacred Fig as Best International Film and NBR' Freedom of Expression Award went to No Other Land.

Wicked was named Best Film and its director, Jon M. Chu was named Best Director.

The full list of NBR awards for 2024 can be accessed here from their website.

GOTHAM AWARDS AND TFF

The Gotham Awards were presented Monday and here's a look at what TFF films were winners:

Best Director: RaMell Ross/Nickel Boys

Best International Feature: All We Imagine as Light

Best Documentary Feature: No Other Land

Breakthrough Performer: Brandon Wilson/Nickel Boys

Among Gotham Tributes were:

Performer Tribute to Angelina Jolie for Maria.

Complete Results are here from Variety.

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