MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / BAFTA Nominations and TFF / Visitations: Nighy and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE

                                              

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress, Best Supporting Actor, Original Score, Original Song and Sound.   These were last predicted on Jan. 5th.  Past ranking is to the right in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

FINAL MTFB OSCAR NOMINATIONS PREDICTIONS WILL BE IN MONDAY'S POST FOR ALL 23 CATEGORIES!

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (2)

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

5) Hong Chau/The Whale (-)

6) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (5)

7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (6)

Out: Jesse Buckley/Women Talking

Should be in the mix: Buckley, Foy, McCarthy and Ivey from Women Talking

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

5) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (4)

6) Brad Pitt/Babylon (6)

7) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (7)

Should be in the mix: Whishaw /Women Talking, Strong/Armageddon Time

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) Babylon (4)

3) Women Talking (2)

4) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (3)

5) The Banshees of Inisherin (5)

6) The Woman King (6)

7) Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Naatu Naatu/RRR (2)

2) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (1)

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick (3)

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio (4)

5) New Body Rhumba/White Noise (7)

6) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman (5)

7) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing (6)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Avatar: The Way of Water (2)

3) Elvis (3) 

4) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)

5) The Batman (6)

6) Everything Everywhere All at Once (7)

7) Babylon (5)

BAFTA NOMINATIONS AND TFF

The British Academy of Film and Television Arts (BAFTA) announced their nominees for film excellence this morning.  Seven TFF films earned a total of 19 nominations with Todd Field's TAR leading the wat for films from The SHOW with five nominations.  Here's the listing:

TAR (5): Best Film, Direction/Field, Actress/Blanchett, Original Screenplay and Sound.

Living (4): Best British Film, Actor/Nighy, Adapted Screenplay and Rising Star/Wood.

Aftersun (4): Best British Film, Debut/Wells, Actor/Mescal and Casting.

Empire of Light (3): Best British Film, Best Supporting Actor/Ward and Cinematography.

The Wonder (1): Best British Film

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Film

Edward Bergers' All Quiet on the Western Front earned the most nominations of any film with 14.

Here's the complete rundown of BAFTA nominees.

VISITATIONS

LIVING: Bill Nighy in Variety.

MARCEL THE SHELL WITH SHOES ON: Dean Fleischer Camp and Kirsten Lepore in Vanity Fair.

HOLY SPIDER: Ali Abbasi and Ana Lily Amirpour in Variety.

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Bill Pence 1940-2022 / MTFB Oscar Update: Best Picture, Direction and More

BILL PENCE 1940-2022

Bill and Stella Pence at the 33rd telluride Film Festival

(Photo by Eugene Hernandez/Indiewire)

Sad news to report as Telluride Film Festival co-founder Bill Pence has died.  The news came over about a 24 hour period triggered by a chance viewing of Turner Classic Movies (TCM) year end TCM Remembers video that is posted to YouTube.  Mr. Pence's inclusion comes at the 2:03 mark:

What was puzzling was that I couldn't immediately find corroboration but over the course of the last day or so I have been able to confirm the news.  One piece of corroboration came last night via The Telluride Daily Planet's online edition which published a tribute from long time TFF staffer Jim Bedford.  You can find that linked here.

Another came with the discovery of an undated post from The Hopkins Center for the Arts at Dartmouth.  That post is undated and is linked here.

From Bedford's Telluride Daily Planet article:

"Bill Pence died on Dec. 6, 2022, after a long illness. He is survived by wife Stella, daughters Zazie and Lara, four grandchildren, and many others whose lives he influenced with his work, direction, and love. Bill's fire burned so very brightly and touched so many. Those who worked for him did it as much to not disappoint him as to carry on his vision. No one wanted to be the one who screwed up the Telluride Film Festival."

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: BEST PICTURE, DIRECTION AND MORE

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture, Best Direction, Best Animated, Documentary and International features which were last posted on Dec. 15th.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

2) The Fabelmans (1)

3) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

4) Top Gun: Maverick (5)

5) Avatar: The Way of Water (8)

6) TAR (6)

7) Elvis (7)

8) Women Talking (4)

9) Babylon (9)

10) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (10)

11) All Quiet on the Western Front (New)

12) Triangle of Sadness  (12)

Out: The Woman King

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Daniels/Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) James Cameron/Avatar: The Way of Water (7)

5) Todd Field/TAR (4)

6) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

7) Baz Luhrman/Elvis (New)

Out: Damien Chazelle/Babylon

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio (1)

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (2)

3) Turning Red (3)

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish (4)

5) Wendall and Wild (5)

6) Inu-Oh (New)

7) Strange World

Out: Lightyear

BEST DOUMENATRY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (3)

2) Fire of Love (2)

3) All That Breathes (4)

4) Navalny (5)

5) Descendant (6)

6) The Territory (7)

7) Retrograde (New)

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front (2)

2) Close (1)

3) Decision to Leave (3)

4) Argentina 1985 (5)

5) Holy Spider (4)

6) Saint Omer (6)

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths (7)

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Oscar Narrows the Field/ MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Acting and More / London Critics and TFF #49

OSCAR NARROWS THE FIELD

The Academy of Motion Pictures Arts and Sciences released shortlists for 10 of its 23 categories yesterday.  That means that the ultimate five nominees and Oscar winner in each of these categories must come from the lists announced Wednesday.  Here's how Telluride films fared within those categories:

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Women Talking.

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey A Song***, Last Flight Home, Retrograde (and Navalny if you count the Elk Park screening prior to the Fest starting).

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE: Close, Holy Spider, Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT: Anastasia, Angola Do You Hear Us: Voices from a Plantation Prison.

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT: Le Pupille, Sideral***

***Denotes TFF #48 films.

No Telluride films made the shortlists for Original Song, Makeup/Hair, Visual Effects, Sound or Animated Short.

The complete shortlists are linked here from The academy website.

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ACTING AND MORE

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.  These were last predicted on Dec. 8th. Additionally, here are my first predictions in th categories of Best Original Score, Original Song and Sound. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)

3) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (7)

4) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)

5) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (New)

6) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (New)

7) Carrie Mulligan/She Said (6)

Out: Clare Foy/Women Talking and Hong Chau/The Whale

Comment: This is such a dynamic and shifting category this season.  Despite dropping out of my top seven both Foy and Chau are still very serious contenders as is Stepahnie Hsu from Everything Everywhere All at Once.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)

4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (4)

6) Brad Pitt/Babylon (New)

7) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (5)

Out: Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway 

Comment: Don't discount Henry sneaking in or, Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) or Anthony Hopkins (Armageddon Time) either.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

1) The Fabelmans

2) Women Talking

3) Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

4) Babylon

5) The Banshees of Inisherin

6) The Woman King

7) She Said

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

1) Lift Me Up/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2) Naatu Naatu/RRR

3) Hold My Hand/Top Gun: Maverick

4) Ciao Papa/Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

5) Carolina/Where the Crawdads Sing

6) Applause/Tell It Like a Woman

7) New Body Rhumba/White Noise

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Avatar: The Way of Water

3) Elvis

4) Babylon

5) The Batman

6) Everything Everywhere All at Once

7) All Quiet on the Western Front and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

LONDON CRITICS AND TFF #49

The London Film Critics Circle announced their nominees for film excellence yesterday.  Sven films that played at TFF #49 were included with a combined 27 nominations.  Charlotte Well's Aftersun led all Telluride films with a total of eight nominations.   Here's the breakdown by film:

Aftersun (8): Film of the Year, Director of the Year, Britsh/Irish Film of the Year, Actor of the Year (Mescal), Screenplay of the Year, British/Irish Actor if the Year (Mescal), British/Irish Breakthrough Filmmaker of the Year (Wells), Young British/Irish Performer of the Year (Corio).

TAR (6): Film of the Year, Director of the Year, Actress of the Year (Blanchett), Supporting Actress of the Year (Hoss), Screenplay of the Year, Technical Achievement: Sound Design.

The Wonder (5): British/Irish Film of the Year, Actress of the Year (Pugh), British/Irish Actress of the Year (Pugh), Young British/Irish Performer of the Year (Cassidy), Technical Achievement: Casting.

Living (4): Film of the Year, British/Irish Film of the Year, Actor of the Year (Nighy), British/Irish Actor of the Year (Nighy).

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (2): Film of the Year, Documentary of the Year.

Women Talking (1): British/Irish Actress of the Year (Buckley).

Empire of Light (1): British /Irish Actress of the Year (Colman).

The complete list of nominees from The LFCC is linked here.

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MTFB Oscar Take: Picture, Direction and More / Critics Choice Nominations / Trailer and Poster for Women Talking / Visitations: Inarittu, Polley and More

MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATING BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION...ADDING DOCUMENTARY, ANIMATED FEATURE AND INTERNATIONAL FILM

In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Dec. 1st.  In addition I am including first predictions for Best Animated, Documentary and International films.  TFF #49 films are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) The Fabelmans (1)

2) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

3) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)

4) Women Talking (3)

5) Top Gun: Maverick (4)

6) TAR (6)

7) Elvis (7)

8) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)

9) Babylon (8)

10) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)

11) The Woman King (New)

12) Triangle of Sadness  (10)

Out: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (11)

Stealth BP possibles: RRR, She Said, GDT's Pinocchio, Living

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)

2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)

4) Todd Field/TAR (4)

5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)

6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (6)

7) James Cameron/Avatar: The Way of Water (New)

Out: Rueben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Turning Red

4) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

5) Wendall and Wild

6) Strange World

7) Lightyear

BEST DOUMENATRY FEATURE

1) Good Night Oppy

2) Fire of Love

3) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

4) All That Breathes

5) Navalny

6) Descendant

7) The Territory

BEST  INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

1) Close

2) All Quiet on the Western Front

3) Decision to Leave

4) Holy Spider

5) Argentina 1985

6) Saint Omer

7) Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths

CRITICS CHOICE NOMINATIONS

The Critics Choice Association named their nominees for film superlatives on Wednesday morning.  Nine different Telluride films earned at least one nomination with Todd Field's TAR leading the way with seven total nominations.  Here's the breakdown:

TAR (7): Best Picture, Direction, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing and Score.

Women Talking (6): Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress (Buckley), Ensemble, Adapted Screenplay and Score.

Aftersun (3): Best Actor (Mescal), Young Actor (Corio), Original Screenplay

Living (2): Best Actor (Nighy), Adapted Screenplay

Empire of Light (1): Cinematography

Armageddon Time (1): Best Young Actor (Repeta)

Bardo (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Close (1): Best Foreign Language Film

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (1): Best Animated Film

Everything Everywhere All at Once led all films with 14 nominations.

You can fins the complete list of nominees linked here.

TRAILER AND POSTER FOR WOMEN TALKING

New views of Sarah Polley's Women Talking with a new poster and a trailer.  Here's the trailer via YouTube:

 And the new poster:

VISITATIONS: INARITTU, POLLEY AND MORE

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo from Gold Derby.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo from The Hollywood Reporter.

Alejandro Gonzalez Inarittu on Bardo from The Playlist.

Sarah Polley on Women Talking from The Hollywood Reporter.

Mary McCartney on If These Walls Could Sing from Solzy at the Movies.

Micheal Ward on Empire of Light from Indiewire.

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MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays / Updating from Feinberg / Visitations: Polley and White

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Oct. 31st.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) The Whale (4)

4) She Said (3)

5) Living (6)

6) White Noise (5)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Babylon (7)

7) Elvis (New)

Dropping Out: Armageddon Time

UPDATING FROM FEINBERG

I last reported on Scott Feinberg's, The Hollywood Reporter's Oscar expert, predictions on Sept. 29th.  I am updating with Feinberg's most recent predictions in as far as Telluride 2022 films are concerned.  Here's what Feinberg had on 9/29:

Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay

TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett

Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

Bardo: International Feature

Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature

Retrograde: Documentary Feature

TFF #49 films that Feinberg is currently predicting to be Oscar nominated (in the 11 categories he has predicted):

Women Talking (5): Picture, Direction (Polley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actress (Buckley), Adapted Screenplay.  Women Talking is also listed as a major threat for two other nominations: Actress (Mara) and Supporting Actor (Whishaw).

TAR (3): Picture, Direction (Field), Actress (Blanchett).  TAR is also predicted as a major threat for two other nominations: Supporting Actress (Hoss) and Original Screenplay.

Close (1): International Feature.  Close is also a major threat for two other nominations: Direction (Dhont) and Original Screenplay.

Holy Spider (1): International Feature

Three TFF #49 documentaries are predicted to be nominated for Best Documentary: Good Night Oppy, Retrograde and Last Flight Home.  Also predicted here is Navalny which is a borderline TFF pick as it screened in Elks Park prior to the start of the fest.

So Feinberg has TFF #49 films with a total of 13 nominations in 11 categories.  That's down a couple from his first set of predictions reported here on Sept. 29th.

A number of TFF #49 films are named as "Major Threats" in several categories including:

Living: Picture, Actor (Nighy) and Adapted Screenplay

Armageddon Time: Picture, Supporting Actor (Strong), Original Screenplay

Empire of Light: Actress (Colman), Supporting Actor (Ward)

Lady Chatterley's Lover: Adapted Screenplay

The Wonder: Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary

Sr. Documentary

The Return of Tanya Tucker: Documentary

Bardo: International Feature

Bones and All: Original Song

The full set of Feinberg's Forecast at THR is linked here.

VISITATIONS

Director Ryan White on Good Night Oppy from Deadline

Director Sarah Polley on Women Talking from The Globe and Mail

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MTFB Oscar Update: Supporting Roles / European Film Awards and TFF #49 / Trailers: Retrograde and Wildcat / Visitations: Todd Field

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SUPPORTING ROLES

I am updating predictions in the categories of Best  Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor.  These were last predicted on Oct. 27th.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (5)

3) Clare Foy/Women Talking (2)

4) Hong Chau/The Whale (3)

5) Carey Mulligan/She Said (4)

6) Nina Hoss/TAR (New)

7) Dolly DeLeon/Triangle of Sadness (New)

Out: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere and Janelle Monae/Glass Onion

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)

2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)

3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)

4) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)

5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)

6) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (New)

7) Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time (7)

Out: Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse

EUROPEAN FILM AWARDS AND TFF #49

The nominations for the European Film Awards were announced on Tuesday.  Here are how films that screened at Telluride this year fared:

Close (4): Best European Film, Direction, Actor (Dambrine), Screenwriter

Holy Spider (4): European Film, Direction, Actress (Amir-Ebrahimi), Screenwriter

TFF #49 films with a single EFA nomination:

Aftersun: Best European Actor (Mescal)

One Fine Morning: Best European Actress (Seydoux)

Godland: Best European Actor (Hove)

March on Rome: Best European Documentary

And from TFF #48 a nomination for Best European Screenwriter for Kenneth Branagh's Belfast

From the EFA, here is the complete list of nominees.

TRAILERS

For Matthew Heineman's documentary Retrograde from National Geographic releasing this Friday:

For Melissa Leash and Trevor Frost's Wildcat from Amazon Studios releasing Dec. 30th.

VISITATIONS: TODD FIELD

Interview with TAR's writer/director Todd Field from Variety.

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Feinberg's First Oscar Take / New Trailer for TAR / Aftersun Poster and Trailer / Denmark Selects Holy Spider and We Get a New Trailer / Netflix Acquires Sr.

FEINBERG'S FIRST OSCAR TAKE

In my last post I ran down the Oscar predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis in as far as TFF #49 films were concerned.  Today,  I'm taking the same approach with The Hollywood Reporter's Chief Awards Editor Scott Feinberg who dropped his first look at the Oscar race on Tuesday.  If Scott is 100% accurate, this is how Oscar nominations shake out in the 11 categories he has included in his predictions.

Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay

TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett

Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman

Close: International Feature

Holy Spider: International Feature

Bardo: International Feature

Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature

Retrograde: Documentary Feature

Other TFF#49 Films/Performers who Feinberg has listed as "Major Threats" Include:

*Close and Goodnight Oppy in Best Picture

*Close/Lukas Dhont in Best Direction

*Living/Bill Nighy in Best Actor

*Women Talking/Rooney Mara and One Fine Morning/Lea Seydoux in Best Actress

*Women Talking/Ben Whishaw, Armageddon Time/Jeremy Strong and Empire of Light/Michael Ward in Best Supporting Actor

*Lady Chatterley's Lover and The Wonder in Adapted Screenplay

*TAR, Close and Armageddon Time in Original Screenplay

*All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Sr., The Return of Tanya Tucker and Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen (TFF #48) in Best Documentary

*Bones and All in Best Song

You can find the entirety of Feinberg's first forecast linked here.

NEW TRAILER FOR TAR

Focus Features dropped a new trailer for Todd Fields' TAR starring Cate Blanchett yesterday.  The film has earned strong reviews and won both MTFB's Professionals poll as well as the Composite poll.  TAR is scheduled for release next week: Oct. 7th.

Here's the new trailer from YouTube:

AFTERSUN POSTER AND TRAILER

A24 has revealed a poster for Charlotte Wells' Aftersun as well as releasing a first trailer for the film.  You can see the poster above and the trailer below via YouTube:

Aftersun is set to be released on Oct. 21st.

DENMARK SELECTS HOLY SPIDER AND WE GET A NEW TRAILER

Denmark has selected Ali Abbasi's Holy Spider as its entrant for the Best International Feature Oscar race.  Last year Denmark entered Flee which ended up with an incredible set of nominations for Best International Feature, Best Documentary and Best Animated Feature.  

Holy Spider is being distributed in the U.S. by Utopia and does not yet have a scheduled release date.

The announcement was made Tuesday by the Danish Film Institute.  You can find that official announcement here.

And here's the new trailer for the film that was released yesterday (from YouTube):

NETFLIX ACQUIRES SR.

News this week that Netflix had acquired the documentary about Robert Downey Sr. that screened in Telluride four weeks ago.  The film was well received by Telluride attendees as it finished third in my Telluride People's poll just behind women talking and TAR.

Sr. is directed by Chris Smith.

The Hollywood Reporter tells us that Netflix plans and Oscar push for the film and to expect it to be available on the streaming service before the end of the year.

Here's the story from THR.

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FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49 / Tribute Guesses? / What Does Ellwood Know? / Pugh? Maybe Not / The People's Telluride

FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49

This is my last stab at what's going to play at Telluride this week.  Of course we'll all find out the actual lineup on Thursday morning at 11:00 EDT/8PDT.  I'll wake up Thursday morning in Gunnison, Co. with about a 22 and 1/2 to 3 hour drive into Telluride.  My plan is to post the lineup when it lands Thursday morning and then skeedaddle to T-ride fairly quickly after.

Here's a reminder of what I had listed as my Ten (Plus) Bets last Thursday:

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) Something from Mark Cousins*

20) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*,  My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*,  March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher

AND HERE ARE MY FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49

The last few years I average about 23 of 25 correct... 

2021: 24 of 25 correct.

2020: No fest

2019: 24 of 25

2018: 25 of 25

2017: 24 of 25

2016: 20 of 20

So, out of the last five years of Bets... 117 of 120.

We'll see what the 2022 rate is. 

And now the actual "Final Bets":

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) March to Rome and/or My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins

20) Aftersun/Wells

21) Living/Hermanus

22) Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy/Buirsky

23) The Pupils/Rohrwacher

24) Anastasia/McCarthy

25) Athena/Gavras

Others Possibilities:Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins

I'm still somewhat shaky on All the Beauty..., Aftersun, Living, Athena and the new adds of Anastasia and The Pupils.  We'll see what happens there.

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy, who has worked this beat tirelessly this season, has reported this list of 23 films as of last Friday.  Jordan writes:

These are the 23 films that we know are Telluride-bound:

Tar (Field)

Bones and All (Guadagnino)

Bardo (Inarritu)

The Wonder (Leilo)

Empire of Light (Mendes)

Women Talking (Polley)

A Compassionate Spy (James)

My Name is Alfred Hitchcock (Cousins)

Theatre of Thought (Werner Herzog)

Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Godland (Hylnur Pálmason)

The US and the Holocaust (Ken Burns)

Sr. (Smith)

Good Night Oppy (White)

Holy Spider (Abbasi)

Armageddon Time (Gray)

One Fine Morning (Hansen-Løve)

Broker (Kore-eda)

Close (Dhont)

Living (Hermanus)

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Poitras)

Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Buirsky)

As you can see, our lists are almost exactly the same.

We'll know more in about 75 hours.

TRIBUTE GUESSES???

Bill Night/Living

Cate Blanchett/TAR

Olivia Colman/Empire of Light

Alejandro Inarritu/Bardo

Anne Hathaway/Armageddon Time

Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time

Jessica Chastain/Armageddon Time

Mark Rylance/Bones and All

Michael Stuhlbarg/Bones and All

If I get some solid intell on this before Thursday's announcement...I'll pass it on in a special post.

WHAT DOES ELLWOOD KNOW?

Last Friday Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist tweeted:

And my brain went..."What's that mean?"  

Ellwood had a couple of responses that guessed that Steven Spielberg's The Fableman's had been grabbed by TFF #49.  Ellwood said "No." to that.  So it got me wondering what it COULD mean.

Back on Aug. 8th I posted "Star Gazing at TFF #49 which was a listing of possible "names" that might be attending based on what films I thought at that time would play TFF.  I've added some further possibilities to that list:

Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.

Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.

Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.

One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.

TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, Nina Hoss

Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.

The Wonder: Florence Pugh (see story below), Toby Jones, Ciaran Hinds.

Living: Bill Nighy

Sr.: Robert Downey, Jr.

Desperate Souls, Dark City...: Jon Voight

Is that "Starry" enough for Ellwood's characterization?  Maybe.  Or is Ellwood hinting about an additional film or two that would pump up the list of guests?

PUGH? MAYBE NOT

Lots of buzz around Florence Pugh this week.  The young actress who is starring in Venice selection Don't Worry Now as well as TFF #49 selection The Wonder is described as "doing limited press" for Venice.  Explanations and conjectures center on her shooting schedule for Dune 2 as well as a controversies swirling around Don't Worry Now involving director Olivia Wilde, actors Shia LaBeouf and Harry Styles and Wilde's ex-husband, actor Jason Sudeikis.

I have assumed that there was a reasonably chance the the young and rising star might break free with her Dune 2 counterpart, Timothee Chalamet, star of Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All (which I expect to be at Telluride) and do a bit of time in the San Juans...but that looks relatively unlikely at the moment.

Pugh currently sits at #23 on IMDb's STARmeter which tracks the current popularity status of people in the biz.  My current STARmeter status is: 1,180,574.  Totally serious about that number.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the tenth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

Ten (Plus) Bets #10 / Empire of Light Poster and Teaser / Athena Gets a Trailer / Return of Aftersun / Camden Film Fest Announcement Seems to Confirm "Sr." / March on Rome Poster /

TEN (Plus) BETS #10

Toronto has completed announcing its lineup and we're just a week-ish away from the 49th edition of the Telluride Film Festival.  Some adds and slight changes to this next-to-last set of Bets.  I'll have a FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS in Monday's MTFB post.

By way of re-capping, here's last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:

1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) Broker/Kore-eda

4) Holy Spider/Abbasi

5) The Wonder/Lelio

6) Empire of Light/Mendes

7) Armageddon Time/Gray

8) Bardo/Inarritu

9) TAR/Fields

10) Bones and All/Guadagnino

11) Good Night Oppy/White

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Godland/Palmason

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Living/Hermanus

Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins,  Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith.

And here's this weeks updated Bets:

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) Something from Mark Cousins*

20) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*,  My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*,  March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher

EMPIRE OF LIGHT POSTER AND TEASER

One of the films that I'm most sure will ply next week at Telluride is Sam Mendes' Empire of Light.  At the moment it's among my top 2-3 films to make sure to catch next week.  Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Olivia Colman Tribute that includes the film...though maybe Toby Jones gets a tribute as he appears to be included in two films that will be screen next.  In addition to Empire of Light Jones also appears in The Wonder.

At any rate, Searchlight has dropped a cool teaser for the film:

ATHENA GETS A TRAILER

Romain Gavras'  Athena is a film that I have been including most of the season as an "Other Possibility" mostly due to its distributor: Netflix and as of late, its scheduled first screening at the Venice Film Fest-9:00 am Sept 2.  That's also the same day that TAR and Bones and All are also screening initially.  So...it's possible.

Netflix dropped a full trailer on Wednesday ahead of its Venice premiere (and possible Telluride SHOW).

Here's that trailer from YouTube:

IMDb's description of the film:

"Hours after the tragic death of their youngest brother in unexplained circumstances, three siblings have their lives thrown into chaos."

Irrespective if it does play Telluride is its release date for Netflix on Sept. 23rd.

RETURN OF AFTERSUN

You may have noticed that I have returned Charlotte Wells' Aftersun to the actual list of 20 films I'm expecting at TFF #49.  That's because multiple sources reached out to me yesterday to let me know that the firm handling the PR for the film had sent an email to various press members that the film is screening at Toronto as a Canadian Premiere.  That is at odds with what the film's premiere designation is at the TIFF website as of this morning. It's till listed as a North American Premiere there.

Aftersun is posted for the New York fest with no premiere designation which would normally signal a Telluride appearance...so with that apparent contradiction, I had moved it from the actual "Bets" to the list of "Other Possibilities"

I've thought Aftersun was a likely TFF #49 candidate since it debuted at Cannes last  May.  Its critical reception and its distribution by A24 made me think it was a very likely choice.  Now, it seems, the record is probably set straight and so back to the "Bets" for today.

CAMDEN FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT SEEMS TO CONFIRM "SR." FOR TFF #49

Variety reporting selections made for the 18th annual Camden International Film Festival on Monday appear to have confirmed the Telluride world premiere of Chris smith's documentary about Indie film director Robert Downey, Sr.  The film is entitled "Sr."

Here's the last paragraph of the Aug. 22nd post:

"This year’s CIFF highlights include the U.S. premiere of Tamana Ayazi and Marcel Mettelsiefen’s Netflix release “In Her Hands,” which follows one of Afghanistan’s first female mayors during the months leading up to the Taliban takeover the country in 2021; Chris Smith’s “Sr.,” centered on the life and career of Robert Downey Sr. and his relationship to his son, Robert Downey Jr.; and Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” about Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall. Each of the three featured documentaries will have made its world premiere before CIFF, at festivals in Toronto, Telluride and Venice, respectively."

BTW, we also think T-ride is going to screen Steve James' A Compassionate Spy at TFF #49.

MARCH ON ROME POSTER

Director Mark Cousins tweeted a photo of the poster for one of his new films: March on Rome which Cousins suggested is: "The new poster for my film about fascism."  Not to put too fine a point on it.

Cousins has at least 2-3 projects that could make an appearance at TFF including this one as well as The Story of Film: A New Generation and an Alfred Hitchcock film he has been working on.

Cousins has also recently tweeted about making sure he could get his passport updated for travel to America as well as this tweet from yesterday:

"From Monday for 2 weeks I will be on a film journey in several countries, doing lots of things.  

I'll tweet as I go, but mute me if it's a bit much."

This lends continued creedence to my belief that the T-ride regular and TFF member of its Esteemed Council of Advisors will be there next week with something. Maybe two somethings.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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