MTFB Oscar Update: Screenplays / Marcel Is Eligible / Trailer for The Corridors of Power / Visitations: Pugh, Polley, Gray and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: SCREENPLAYS

Today I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Original and Adapted Screenplay.  These were last predicted on Oct. 31st.  Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses.  Films from TFF #49 are in Bold.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

1) Women Talking (1)

2) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (2)

3) She Said (3)

4) The Whale (4)

5) White Noise (5)

6) Living (6)

7) Top Gun: Maverick (7)

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

1) The Banshees of Inisherin (2)

2) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)

3) The Fabelmans (3)

4) TAR (4)

5) Triangle of Sadness (5)

6) Armageddon Time (7)

7) Babylon (6)

MARCEL IS ELIGIBLE

News this past week that the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences has deemed Dean Fleischer Camp's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (TFF #48) will be eligible for consideration for the Best Animated Feature Oscar.  

There had been some discussion that it would not be eligible because of the significant amount of live action that exists in the films but those concerns were allayed with the decision this week from AMPAS's Short Film and Animation Branch Executive Committee according to reporting from Carolyn Giardina writing for The Hollywood Reporter.

Marcel still faces a challenging set of competitors including the soon-to-be-released Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio out on Dec. 9th which has been garnering rave reviews.

TRAILER FOR THE CORRIDORS OF POWER

Here's the first trailer for Dror Moreh's TFF #49 documentary The Corridors of Power.  The film focuses on U.S. foreign policy and its players in the 1990's and how it still resonates today. 

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Sarah Polley and crew on Women Talking from Variety

Actor Michael Ward on Empire of Light from Entertainment Weekly

Writer/Director James Gray on Armageddon Time from Deadline and Academy Conversations on YouTube

Director Ryan White on Good Night Oppy from Solzy at the Movies and Prime Video

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49 / Tribute Guesses? / What Does Ellwood Know? / Pugh? Maybe Not / The People's Telluride

FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49

This is my last stab at what's going to play at Telluride this week.  Of course we'll all find out the actual lineup on Thursday morning at 11:00 EDT/8PDT.  I'll wake up Thursday morning in Gunnison, Co. with about a 22 and 1/2 to 3 hour drive into Telluride.  My plan is to post the lineup when it lands Thursday morning and then skeedaddle to T-ride fairly quickly after.

Here's a reminder of what I had listed as my Ten (Plus) Bets last Thursday:

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) Something from Mark Cousins*

20) Aftersun/Wells

Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*,  My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*,  March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher

AND HERE ARE MY FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49

The last few years I average about 23 of 25 correct... 

2021: 24 of 25 correct.

2020: No fest

2019: 24 of 25

2018: 25 of 25

2017: 24 of 25

2016: 20 of 20

So, out of the last five years of Bets... 117 of 120.

We'll see what the 2022 rate is. 

And now the actual "Final Bets":

1) Empire of Light/Mendes

2) Women Talking/Polley

3) The Wonder/Lelio

4) Bardo/Iarritu

5) TAR/Field

6) Broker/Kore-eda

7) Holy Spider/Abbasi

8) Armageddon Time/Gray

9) Bones and All/Guadignino

10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

11) Godland/Palmason

12) A Compassionate Spy/James

13) Good Night Oppy/White

14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog

15) Sr./Smith

16 The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns

17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras

18) Close/Dhont

19) March to Rome and/or My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins

20) Aftersun/Wells

21) Living/Hermanus

22) Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy/Buirsky

23) The Pupils/Rohrwacher

24) Anastasia/McCarthy

25) Athena/Gavras

Others Possibilities:Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins

I'm still somewhat shaky on All the Beauty..., Aftersun, Living, Athena and the new adds of Anastasia and The Pupils.  We'll see what happens there.

World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy, who has worked this beat tirelessly this season, has reported this list of 23 films as of last Friday.  Jordan writes:

These are the 23 films that we know are Telluride-bound:

Tar (Field)

Bones and All (Guadagnino)

Bardo (Inarritu)

The Wonder (Leilo)

Empire of Light (Mendes)

Women Talking (Polley)

A Compassionate Spy (James)

My Name is Alfred Hitchcock (Cousins)

Theatre of Thought (Werner Herzog)

Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)

Godland (Hylnur Pálmason)

The US and the Holocaust (Ken Burns)

Sr. (Smith)

Good Night Oppy (White)

Holy Spider (Abbasi)

Armageddon Time (Gray)

One Fine Morning (Hansen-Løve)

Broker (Kore-eda)

Close (Dhont)

Living (Hermanus)

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Poitras)

Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Buirsky)

As you can see, our lists are almost exactly the same.

We'll know more in about 75 hours.

TRIBUTE GUESSES???

Bill Night/Living

Cate Blanchett/TAR

Olivia Colman/Empire of Light

Alejandro Inarritu/Bardo

Anne Hathaway/Armageddon Time

Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time

Jessica Chastain/Armageddon Time

Mark Rylance/Bones and All

Michael Stuhlbarg/Bones and All

If I get some solid intell on this before Thursday's announcement...I'll pass it on in a special post.

WHAT DOES ELLWOOD KNOW?

Last Friday Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist tweeted:

And my brain went..."What's that mean?"  

Ellwood had a couple of responses that guessed that Steven Spielberg's The Fableman's had been grabbed by TFF #49.  Ellwood said "No." to that.  So it got me wondering what it COULD mean.

Back on Aug. 8th I posted "Star Gazing at TFF #49 which was a listing of possible "names" that might be attending based on what films I thought at that time would play TFF.  I've added some further possibilities to that list:

Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.

Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.

Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.

One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.

TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, Nina Hoss

Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.

The Wonder: Florence Pugh (see story below), Toby Jones, Ciaran Hinds.

Living: Bill Nighy

Sr.: Robert Downey, Jr.

Desperate Souls, Dark City...: Jon Voight

Is that "Starry" enough for Ellwood's characterization?  Maybe.  Or is Ellwood hinting about an additional film or two that would pump up the list of guests?

PUGH? MAYBE NOT

Lots of buzz around Florence Pugh this week.  The young actress who is starring in Venice selection Don't Worry Now as well as TFF #49 selection The Wonder is described as "doing limited press" for Venice.  Explanations and conjectures center on her shooting schedule for Dune 2 as well as a controversies swirling around Don't Worry Now involving director Olivia Wilde, actors Shia LaBeouf and Harry Styles and Wilde's ex-husband, actor Jason Sudeikis.

I have assumed that there was a reasonably chance the the young and rising star might break free with her Dune 2 counterpart, Timothee Chalamet, star of Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All (which I expect to be at Telluride) and do a bit of time in the San Juans...but that looks relatively unlikely at the moment.

Pugh currently sits at #23 on IMDb's STARmeter which tracks the current popularity status of people in the biz.  My current STARmeter status is: 1,180,574.  Totally serious about that number.

THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE

For the tenth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride.  All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".

Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com

Star Gazing at TFF #49 / The Story of Film: A New Generation Trailer / Armageddon to NYFF / A Compassionate Spy Appears Confirmed

STAR GAZING AT TFF #49

Who might be joining us mere mortals in the San Juans in just a few weeks?  Working from my current Ten (Plus) Bets list, here are some possibilities (listed by film) with past TFF Guests indicated with ***:

Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.

Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.

Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.

One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.

The Pale Blue Eye: Christian Bale***, Henry Melling, Gillian Anderson, Robert Duvall

TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong

Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.

The Wonder: Florence Pugh.

Hot prospects for Tributes include Cate Blanchett, Anne Hathaway, Olivia Colman and Frances McDormand.

THE STORY OF FILM: A NEW GENERATION TRAILER

TFF "Usual Suspect" Mark Cousins has a couple of projects that could make a splash at TFF #49.  One is an updating of sorts of his The Story of Film.  That film is The Story of Film: A New Generation and comes 10 years after the original.  The new version has a new trailer which dropped last week.  Here that is via YouTube:

Additionally, Cousins has a new documentary that will land at Venice and then could end up at Telluride.  March on Rome which is described at IMDb as a film that:

"Depicts the ascent of fascism in Italy, and its fallout across 1930s Europe."

I wouldn't be stunned if both films were screened at the fest.

ARMAGEDDON AT NYFF

The New York Film festival has announced that James Gray's Armageddon Time will play as a "Main Slate selection".  The announcement from NYFF is a little bit cagey with its language about the premiere status of the film:

"The premiere has been designated a special 60th anniversary screening event celebrating the history of the festival, featuring Gray and cast in attendance, along with NYFF filmmakers and supporters who have been integral to the festival’s success." 

There's no actual mention of its premiere status despite using the word premiere" in the announcement.  If the film isn't playing TFF/TIFF then New York could and likely would bill it as an North American premiere.  Also, the "60th anniversary screening event" language makes me think that the film plays somewhere else before NYFF.

So I'm going to stand pat, for the moment anyway, that Armageddon Time still screens at TFF #49.

NYFF's announcement is linked here.

A COMPASSIONATE SPY APPEARS CONFIRMED

Jordan Ruimy/World of Reel continues to be a fount of info regarding festival season.  In one of his later posts he seems to confirm that Steve James' A Compassionate Spy is headed for Telluride:

"Then there’s Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” set to premiere at Venice, Telluride, Toronto and Chicago."

I reported here a week ago that the documentary looked like it was  headed to TFF #49 based on a Chicago Tribune story which included this:

"Though the filmmaker could not confirm the near-future for his latest project, many world premieres start at Venice and then go straight to a U.S. premiere at the Telluride Film Festival in Colorado a few days later."

And:

"James wrapped up principal photography in April, and his producers at Participant Media suggested submitting the film for Venice (Aug. 31-Sept. 10) and Telluride (Sept. 2-5)."

Jordan's full story is here.

PS...another doc that Jordan mentions is Laura Poitras' All the Beauty and the Bloodshed" has also been announced as NYFF's Centerpiece and os absent any premiere designation for that fest as far as I can tell.  

That leads me to think that we might consider it as a TFF #49 prospect.  The film focuses on the work of photographer Nan Goldin and her fight against the Sackler family (Purdue Pharma).  

Goldin's story was recently included as a part of the Hulu miniseries Dopesick.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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