Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here's the last update for these major categories prior to final predictions that will post on the Sunday morning of the Oscars (March 12th). A film's previous ranking from two weeks ago is indicated to the right in parentheses. TFF films are indicated in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
2) The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
3) The Fabelmans (2)
4) Top Gun: Maverick (5)
5) All Quiet on the Western Front (7)
6) TAR (5)
7) Elvis (6)
8) Triangle of Sadness (8)
9) Avatar: The Way of Water (9)
10) Women Talking (10)
BEST DIRECTION
1) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
2) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (2)
3) Todd Field/TAR (3)
4) Martin McDonagh/The Bnashees of Inisherin (4)
5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness (5)
BEST ACTRESS
1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)
2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie (5)
4) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (3)
5) Ana de Armas/Blonde (4)
BEST ACTOR
1) Austin Butler/Elvis (2)
2) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)
3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (3)
4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)
5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun (5)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
2) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (3)
4) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once (4)
5) Hong Chau/The Whale (5)
BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR
1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (1)
2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Barry Koeghan/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)
4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)
5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway (5)
OSCAR THOUGHTS
The BAFTA win for Austin Butler seemed to have lifted him over Brendan Fraser in the Best Actor race and BAFTA also seemed to solidify Cate Blanchett's position over Michelle Yeoh, then the SGA's happened last night and it's all back up in the air again.
DGA, PGA and SAG Ensemble wins for Everything Everywhere All at Once have solidified its position for Best Picture and Best Direction.
PGA- TFF nominees were wiped out across the board. TAR, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Retrograde were the only TFF films nominated and none won. You could make a bit of a case for Navalny's PGA win for Documentary being TFF-adjacent as it screened prior to the fest's start at Elk Park. Also, TFF touches just a bit on Everything Everywhere All at Once with the special screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon and the appearance at the fest of Michelle Yeoh.
SAG- Everything Everywhere won everything everywhere. Ensemble, Actress (Yeoh), Supporting Actress (Curtis) and Supporting Actor (Quan). Brendan Fraser gained back some ground with his SAG win over Austin Butler. That goes back to being a tight race. Yeoh's win did the same in Best Actress with Blanchett and Jamie Lee Curtis's win throws Supporting Actress into a real tizzy.
Quan's win means he is locked and the Ensemble prize seems to lock Everything Everywhere for Best Picture. EEAAO could end up with six Oscars in two weeks time.
this next two weeks are going to be crazy.
EXTENDED TRAILER FOR SALVATORE
Sony Pictures Classics released an extended trailer this week for Luca Guadagnino's documentary Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams. The film has already been released.
MTFB OSCAR UPDATE FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS PART FOUR
Here's the last of my first pass at predicting what films and performances will win Oscars on March 12th. Over the past two weeks I have predicted the other 18 categories. Going forward I will continue to update categories at the same intervals culminating in a final set of predictions on Oscar morning. Today's initial predictions for the final five categories follow. TFF films in Bold.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: The Way of Water
2) Top Gun: Maverick
3) All Quiet on the Western Front
4) The Batman
5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST SOUND
1) Top Gun: Maverick
2) Elvis
3) All Quiet on the Western Front
4) Avatar: The Way of Water
5)The Batman
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake...
3) The Flying Sailor
4) My Year of Dicks
5) Ice Merchants
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) How Do You Measure a Year?
2) The Elephant Whisperers
3) The Martha Mitchell Effect
4) Stranger at the Gate
5) Haulout
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) Le Pupille
2) An Irish Goodbye
3) The Red Suitcase
4) Ivalu
5) The Night Ride
Comments:
The Visual Effects win for Avatar/Water and Sound win for TG: Maverick seem pretty likely at this point.
As always the Short Films categories are really anyone's guess, though the buzz for The Boy, the Mole etc. has it feeling like the most certain winner in any of the three shorts categories. The Doc and Live Action Shorts categories are totally up in the air.
After the initial prognostications over the past two weeks I have TFF films winning four statues on March 12th:
Cate Blanchett/Best Actress/TAR
Women Talking/Adapted Screenplay
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Best Doc
Le Pupille/Best Live Action Short
And among the 20 feature categories, win totals predicted:
Films with multiple predicted wins:
Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture, Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.
Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.
The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.
Top Gun: Maverick with two: Editing and Sound
Films with single predicted wins:
TAR: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.
The Whale: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.
Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay.
Babylon: Original Score.
RRR: Original Song.
All Quiet on the Western Front: International Feature.
Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio: Animated Feature.
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary Feature.
Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects.
I can still see the possibility of Everything Everywhere winning up to six. The three I have predicted at this point plus Direction, Actress and Editing.
I have Banshees being shut out, but it's still very much alive for Original Screenplay and Colin Farrell is still a viable Best Actor winner. We'll see how that evolves over the next few weeks.
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Actress and Best Actor. These were last predicted on Nov. 21st. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST ACTRESS
1) Cate Blanchett/TAR (1)
2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans (4)
4) Danielle Deadwyler/Till (3)
5) Margot Robbie/Babylon (5)
6) Viola Davis/The Woman King (7)
7) Olivia Colman/Empire of Light (6)
BEST ACTOR
1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale (1)
2) Colin Ferrell/The Banshees of Inisherin (2)
3) Austin Butler/Elvis (3)
4) Bill Nighy/Living (4)
5) Tom Cruise/Top Gun: Maverick (6)
6) Hugh Jackman/The Son (7)
7) Gabriel LaBelle/The Fabelmans (New)
Out: Diego Calva/Babylon
NEW YORK FILM CRITICS CIRCLE AND TFF #9 FILMS
New York critics tapped three TFF #49 films and a TFF #48 film with a total of five awards on Friday with Todd Field's TAR leading the charge winning awards for Best Feature and Best Actress for Cate Blanchett's searing performance. Charlotte Wells' Aftersun was lauded for Best First Feature. The other TFF #49 recognition was for Laura Poitras' documentary on the life and work of photographer and activist nan Goldin: All the Beauty and the Bloodshed.
TFF #48's Marcel the Shell with Shoes On was named the year's Best Animated Feature. Congrats to Dean Fleischer Camp and Jenny Slate and the whole Marcel crew. Regular readers know that Marcel is on of my passions this awards season.
In other NYFCC news of note, Martin McDonagh's The Banshees of Inisherin made noise with two wins. One for Best Actor for Colin Farrell and the other for McDonagh's Screenplay.
MTFB OSCAR TAKE: UPDATE: BEST PICTURE AND DIRECTION
In today's post I am updating Oscar predictions for Best Picture and Best Direction which were last posted on Oct. 6th. TFF #49 films are in Bold.
BEST PICTURE
1) The Fabelmans (1)
2) The Banshees of Inisherin (4)
3) Women Talking (2)
4) Everything Everywhere All at Once (5)
5) Top Gun: Maverick (6)
6) TAR (7)
7) Babylon (3)
8) Elvis (8)
9) Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (9)
10) She Said (10)
11) The Woman King (11)empire of
12) Empire of Light (New)
Dropping out: Avatar: The Way of Water
Ought to think about: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On and Armageddon Time
BEST DIRECTION
1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans (1)
2) Sarah Polley/Women Talking (2)
3) Todd Field/TAR (3)
4) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin (6)
5) The Daniels/EEAAO (5)
6) Damien Chazelle/Babylon (4)
7) Sam Mendes/Empire of Light (New)
Dropping out: Gina Prince-Blythwood/The Woman King
CRITIC'S CHOICE DOC NOMS INCLUDE TFF
The Critic's Choice Association announced its nominees for excellence in Documentaries on Monday and Telluride films fared well. A dozen films between TFF #48 and TFF #49 earned 28 nominations. Ryan White's Good Night Oppy led all TFF docs with six nominations, one behind the overall leader in nominations: Fire of Love.
Oppy, which was very buzzy throughout the Labor Day weekend, was nominated for: best Documentary, Direction, Editing, Score, Narration and Best Science/Nature documentary.
Other TFF films nominated include:
Three Minutes: A Lengthening (TFF #48): Best First Doc, Editing, Narration, Best Archival Doc, Best Historical Doc
The Automat (TFF #48): Best Doc, Best First Doc, Score, Best Historical Doc
Cow (TFF #48): Best First Doc, Cinematography, Best Science/Nature Doc
The U.S. and the Holocaust (TFF #49): Best Historical Doc. Best Doc Series
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (TFF #49): Best Direction and Best Political Doc
Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen, A Journey, A Song (TFF #48): Best Music Doc
If These Walls Could Talk (TFF #49): Best Music Doc
Retrograde (TFF #49): Best Political Doc
Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams (TFF #49): Best Biographical Doc
Sr. (TFF #49): Best Biographical Doc
The Return of Tanya Tucker (TFF #49): Best Music Doc
The Match Factory dropped a new trailer for Lukas Dhont's Close on Monday. Belgium selected the film as its entry for the International Feature Oscar last month.
I am continuing my series wherein I check the Oscar predictions of a number of experts and how they have situated films that played at TFF #49. Previously I have passed along predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis, The Hollywood Reporter's Scott Feinberg and Awards Watch's Erik Anderson and Entertainment Weekly's Dave Karger. Today I'm highlighting Matt Neglia who founded Next Best Picture.
Matt is currently predicting all Oscar categories except the Shorts. Here's what he has Telluride films being nominated for:
Women Talking (6): Best Picture, Supporting Actress (Buckley), Supporting Actress (Foy), Supporting Actor (Whishaw), Adapted Screenplay and Original Score.
TAR (3): Best Direction, Actress (Blanchett), Original Screenplay
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary
In my last post I ran down the Oscar predictions from Variety's Clayton Davis in as far as TFF #49 films were concerned. Today, I'm taking the same approach with The Hollywood Reporter's Chief Awards Editor Scott Feinberg who dropped his first look at the Oscar race on Tuesday. If Scott is 100% accurate, this is how Oscar nominations shake out in the 11 categories he has included in his predictions.
Women Talking: Best Picture, Direction, Supporting Actress/Foy, Supporting Actress/Buckley, Adapted Screenplay
TAR: Best Picture, Direction, Actress/Blanchett
Empire of Light: Best Actress/Colman
Close: International Feature
Holy Spider: International Feature
Bardo: International Feature
Goodnight Oppy: Documentary Feature
Retrograde: Documentary Feature
Other TFF#49 Films/Performers who Feinberg has listed as "Major Threats" Include:
*Close and Goodnight Oppy in Best Picture
*Close/Lukas Dhont in Best Direction
*Living/Bill Nighy in Best Actor
*Women Talking/Rooney Mara and One Fine Morning/Lea Seydoux in Best Actress
*Women Talking/Ben Whishaw, Armageddon Time/Jeremy Strong and Empire of Light/Michael Ward in Best Supporting Actor
*Lady Chatterley's Lover and The Wonder in Adapted Screenplay
*TAR, Close and Armageddon Time in Original Screenplay
*All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, Sr., The Return of Tanya Tucker and Hallelujah: Leonard Cohen (TFF #48) in Best Documentary
Focus Features dropped a new trailer for Todd Fields' TAR starring Cate Blanchett yesterday. The film has earned strong reviews and won both MTFB's Professionals poll as well as the Composite poll. TAR is scheduled for release next week: Oct. 7th.
Here's the new trailer from YouTube:
AFTERSUN POSTER AND TRAILER
A24 has revealed a poster for Charlotte Wells' Aftersun as well as releasing a first trailer for the film. You can see the poster above and the trailer below via YouTube:
Aftersun is set to be released on Oct. 21st.
DENMARK SELECTS HOLY SPIDER AND WE GET A NEW TRAILER
Denmark has selected Ali Abbasi's Holy Spider as its entrant for the Best International Feature Oscar race. Last year Denmark entered Flee which ended up with an incredible set of nominations for Best International Feature, Best Documentary and Best Animated Feature.
Holy Spider is being distributed in the U.S. by Utopia and does not yet have a scheduled release date.
And here's the new trailer for the film that was released yesterday (from YouTube):
NETFLIX ACQUIRES SR.
News this week that Netflix had acquired the documentary about Robert Downey Sr. that screened in Telluride four weeks ago. The film was well received by Telluride attendees as it finished third in my Telluride People's poll just behind women talking and TAR.
Sr. is directed by Chris Smith.
The Hollywood Reporter tells us that Netflix plans and Oscar push for the film and to expect it to be available on the streaming service before the end of the year.
Here's my annual final step of computation that has become an MTFB tradition. It's The Composite Telluride ratings in which I add the average from The People and The Professionals to provide one more glimpse of how The SHOW's films were perceived.
To begin, here's the history of The Composite Telluride with the film's combined rating in parentheses and its position on each of the two lists in brackets.
2012
1) Argo (9.25) [2/2]
2) Stories We Tell (9.10) [3/1]
3) The Attack (8.70) [5/3]
4) Central Park Five (8.450 [1/13]
5) The Sapphires (8.36) [4/8]
6) Frances Ha (8.27) [5/9]
7) Amour (7.67) [10/6]
8) Rust and Bone (7.65) [7/16]
9) Baraka (7.50) [10/10]
10) The Iceman 7.41 [8/17]
11) No (6.61) [12/21]
12) The Gatekeepers (6.58) [14/18]
13) Hyde Park on Hudson (6.33) [14/20]
14) At Any Price (5.83) [9/24]
15) Everyday (4.88) [15/25]
2013
1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) [1/2]
2) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) [4/1]
3) Gravity (8.75) [3/3]
4) Nebraska (8.38) [5/6]
5) All is Lost (8.26) [6/7]
6) Inside Llewyn Davis (8.25) [7/5]
7) Blue is the Warmest Color (8.15) [2/11]
8) The Past (7.71) [9/10]
9) The Lunchbox (7.55) [13/4]
10) The Wind Rises (7.1) [18/8]
11) Labor Day (7.0) [10/14]
11) (tie) Prisoners (7.0) [12/13]
13) Tracks (6.84) [16/12]
14) Palo Alto (6.4) [16/17]
15) The Invisible Woman (6.19) [20/18]
16) The Unknown Known (5.73) [15/20]
17) Under the Skin (5.1) [18/21]
2014
1) Birdman (9.18) [2/1]
2) Foxcatcher (8.83) [4/2]
3) The Imitation Game (8.79) [1/7]
4) Wild Tales (8.43) [3/4]
5) '71 (8.15) [6/3]
6) Mommy (7.42) [8/8]
7) Red Army (7.30) [7/11]
8) Two Days, One Night (7.21) [13/9]
9) Mr. Turner (7.10) [14/6]
10) Wild (6.71) [8/13]
11) Rosewater (6.52) [12/14]
12) The Homesman (6.38) [16/11]
13) Madame Bovary (6.18) [15/12]
2015
1) Spotlight (8.86) [2/3]
2) Son of Saul (8.74) [5/1]
3) Beasts of No Nation (8.62) [3/5]
4) Steve Jobs (8.17) [10/4]
5) Carol (8.13) [8/6]
6) Black Mass (7.98) [7/9]
7) Room (7.97) [1/11]
8) 45 Years (7.84) [11/7]
9) Anomalisa (7.78) [14/2]
10) Suffragette (7.07) [12/12]
11) He Named Me Malala (6.22) [13/13]
2016
1) Moonlight (9.19) [1/1]
2) La La Land (8.91) [2/2]
3) Manchester by the Sea (8.13) [5/4]
4) Arrival (8.01) [6/7]
5) Maudie (7.89) [3/9]
6) Sully (7.68) [10/6]
7) Toni Erdmann (7.65) [9/8]
8) Things to Come (7.25) [19/3]
9) Una (6.85) [15/10]
10) California Typewriter (6.78)[13/11]
10) Into the Inferno (6.78) [21/5]
12) Wakefield (6.26) [12/14]
13) Bleed for This (6.12) [14/13]
14) Norman (5.97) [16/15]
2017
1) The Shape of Water (8.72) [2/1]
2) Lady Bird (8.58) [1/5]
3) Faces Places (7.96) [5/2]
4) Darkest Hour (7.90) [3/8]
5) Hostiles (7.78) [4/9]
6) The Rider (7.63) [10/2]
7) Battle of the Sexes (7.62) [6/7]
8) First Reformed (7.32) [13/6]
9) Lean on Pete (7.16) [7/12]
10) First They Killed My Father (7.05) [15/10]
11) Loving Vincent (7.00) [12/11]
12) Wonderstruck (6.6) [10/13]
13) Downsizing (6.17) [16/14)]
14) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (6.16) [8/15]
2018
1) Roma (9.20) [1/1]
2) First Man (8.51) [2/2]
3) Free Solo (8.33) [5/3]
4) Cold War (8.16) [6/3]
5) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (7.91) [8/5]
6) The Favourite (7.66) [9/6]
7) Boy Erased (7.43) [4/10]
8) White Boy Rick (6.94) [7/11]
9) The Front Runner (6.74) [10/13]
10) Destroyer (6.69) [12/9]
11) Border (6.57) [16/8]
12) The Old Man and the Gun (6.56) [14/10]
2019
1) Parasite (9.11) [2/1]
2) The Two Popes (8.93) [1/2]
3) Marriage Story (8.54) [4/3]
4) Ford v. Ferrari (8.46) [3/7]
5) A Hidden Life (8.01) [5/5]
6) Waves (7.90) [12/4]
7) Pain and Glory (7.63) [5/9]
8) The Report (7.53) [9/8]
9) Motherless Brooklyn (7.22) [10/11]
10) Uncut Gems (7.00) [14/10]
11) Judy (6.93) [7/13]
12) The Aeronauts (6.75) [8/14]
13) The Climb (6.57) [15/12]
2021:
1) The Power of the Dog (8.95) [2/1]
2) Belfast (8.42) [3/4]
3) The Rescue (8.13) [6/2]
4) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (8.01) [1/10]
5) King Richard (7.98) [7/5]
6) Spencer (7.77) [4/12]
7) Red Rocket (7.63) [5/15]
8) C'mon C'mon (7.58) [9/6)
9) Cyrano (7.08) [11/8]
10) The Lost Daughter (6.92) [10/14]
11) The French Dispatch (5.55) [12/17]
12) Encounter (5.14) [13/18]
The current all time top ten composite scores:
1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 Tie (Won Best Picture)
1) Argo (9.25) 2012 Tie (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) The Two Popes (8.93) 2019
10) La La Land (8.91) 2016 (Won Best Director)
Soooo...Here are your results of The Composite Telluride for 2022. Ten films made both The Peoples Telluride list and The Professionals Telluride list. The respective rankings for each film are included to the right in [brackets] with the Pro's rating on the left and the People's on the right:
1) TAR 8.13 [1-2]
2) Women Talking 8.09 [2-1]
3) The Wonder 7.52 [5-4]
4) One Fine Morning 7.50 [6-4]
5) Armageddon Time 7.35 [3-9]
6) Aftersun 7.26 [7-8]
7) Bones and All 7.25 [8-6]
8) Empire of Light 7.11 [4-12]
9) Lady Chatterley's Lover 6.77 [9-13]
10) Living 6.75 [10-7]
Big disconnects between the Pros and the People were Armageddon Time and Empire of Light which were significantly favored by the Pros over where the People rated them and Lady Chatterley's Lover and Living which had an substantial lead in the People's poll compared to where the Pros had them.
If you're talking the Best Picture Oscar, ending up in the top spot for The Composite Telluride is a good place to be. Since I started it, The Composite Telluride has pointed to the Best Picture winners in seven out of nine years missing for 2019 because Green Book won and last year in which CODA won.
That said, I find it unlikely that TAR wins Best Picture this year. To my mind, the TFF #49 film with the most potential for winning BP is Sarah Polley's Women Talking and even that seems, at this point, a long shot. I'll have my first stab at making Oscar predictions for Picture, Directing and Acting categories up on MTFB in Monday's post.
After TFF #49 The Composite All Time Top Ten did not change and remains as follows:
1) 12 Years a Slave (9.25) 2013 Tie (Won Best Picture)
1) Argo (9.25) 2012 Tie (Won Best Picture)
3) Roma (9.20) 2018 (Won Best Foreign Language Film)
4) Moonlight (9.19) 2016 (Won Best Picture)
5) Birdman (9.18) 2014 (Won Best Picture)
6) Parasite (9.11) 2019 (Won Best Picture)
7) Stories We Tell (9.10) 2012
8) Tim's Vermeer (8.97) 2013
9) The Power of the Dog (8.95) 2021 (Nominated Best Picture)
10) The Two Popes (8.93) 2019
INDIEWIRE'S BEST OF THE FESTS
The crew at Indiewire put together a list of what they evaluate as the best films to have played the triumvirate of film fests just concluded (Telluride, Venice and Toronto). It was posted last Monday. TFF #49 films that made the list of 15 included
Variety also posted a list of the 17 films that their staff have chosen as the best of the three fests. The list includes three films that played at Telluride: TAR, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed and Women Talking.
Similar to the above post from Indiewire, Metacritic posted an article on Sunday that included their collective critical rating for many films that have played Telluride, Venice and/or Toronto. I took the liberty of adding to their list three films that played in Cannes in May that were also programmed by Telluride a few weeks back.
Here's where the TFF #49 films landed according to Metacrtic:
TAR-92
Aftersun-91
Icarus: The Aftermath-89
All the Beauty and the Bloodhsed-88
Close-83
Women Talking-80
Squaring the Circle-77
Bones and All-76
A Compassionate Spy-75
Armageddon Time-74
The Wonder-72
Lady Chatterley's Lover 67
Theater of Thought-64
Good Night Oppy-63
Empire of Light-59
Bardo-51
TAR leads all films listed with its 92. See the rest of what Metacritic has included from the other two fests that did not play at TFF #49 including The Fabelmans, The Son, The Whale and Blonde linked here.
THEATER OF THOUGHT TRAILER
We found out earlier this week that a trailer has been released for Werner Herzog's latest documentary. The film is described at IMDB as follows:
"Werner Herzog sets his sights on yet another mysterious landscape - the human brain - for clues as to why a hunk of tissue can produce profound thoughts and feelings while considering the philosophical, ethical, and social implications of fast-advancing neural technology."
Two weeks after the 49th Telluride Film Festival, here are the results from this year's People's ratings of the films that played there.
I asked for readers of MTFB to rate the films they saw over Labor Day weekend at TFF #49 on a 1-5 scale and submit that information to me. I then complied the responses (nearly 50 this year) and averaged them all to arrive at each film's ratings. To make the cut, only films that received at least a third of the total number of respondents were included to insure the sampling size was sufficient. 13 films qualified for listing. You'll see the results below after a brief trip down The People's Telluride memory lane.
The first People's Telluride was posted on Sept. 10, 2012. The top ten films from that year's fest from the populist perspective were:
1) Stories We Tell- 4.80
2) Argo- 4.75
3) The Attack- 4.70
4) The Act of Killing-4.41
5) Wadjda-4.2
6) Amour 4.17
7) Barbara- 4.17
8) The Sapphires-4.11
9) Frances Ha-4.07
10) (Tie)The Hunt and Baraka - 4.00
In subsequent years the top ten were:
2013:
1) Tim's Vermeer (4.67)
2) 12 Years a Slave (4.55)
3) Gravity (4.40)
4) The Lunchbox (4.25)
5) Inside Llewyn Davis (4.15)
6) Nebraska (4.08)
7) All is Lost (4.06)
8) The Wind Rises (4.0)
9) Ida (4.0)
10) The Past (3.81)
2014:
1) The Imitation Game (4.73)
2) Birdman (4.46)
3) Wild Tales (4.23)
4) Foxcatcher (4.20)
5) Merchants of Doubt (4.04)
6) '71 (3.90)
7) Red Army (3.63)
8) Wild (Tie 3.50)
8) Escobar: Paradise Lost (Tie 3.50)
8) Mommy (Tie 3.50)
2015:
1) Room (4.47)
2) Spotlight (4.45)
3) Beasts of No Nation (4.35)
4) Ixcanul (4.31)
5) Son of Saul (4.30)
6) Marguerite (4.23)
7) Black Mass (4.13)
8) Carol (4.02)
9) Rams (3.98)
10) Steve Jobs (3.86)
2016:
1) Moonlight (4.37)
2) La La Land (4.33)
3) Maudie (4.29)
4) The Eagle Huntress (4.21)
5) Manchester by the Sea (4.18)
6) Arrival (4.13)
7) Bright Lights (3.90)
8) Frantz (3.89)
9) Toni Erdmann (3.80)
10) Sully (3.79)
2017:
1) Lady Bird (4.38)
2) The Shape of Water (4.22)
3) Darkest Hour (4.04)
4) Hostiles (3.99)
5) Faces Places (3.71)
6) Battle of the Sexes (3.68)
7) Lean on Pete (3.66)
8) Film Stars Don't Die in Liverpool (3.57)
9) The Other Side of Hope (3.45)
10) Wonderstruck (3.43)
2018
1) Roma (4.47)
2) First Man (4.34)
3) Shoplifters (4.29)
4) Boy Erased (4.23)
5) Free Solo (4.19)
6) Cold War (4.02)
7) White Boy Rick (3.88)
8) Can You Ever Forgive Me? (3.81)
9) The Favourite (3.76)
10) The Front Runner (3.69)
2019:
1) The Two Popes (4.51)
2) Parasite (4.36)
3) Ford v. Ferrari (4.35)
4) Marriage Story (4.14)
5) Pain and Glory (3.81-Tie)
5) A Hidden Life (3.81-Tie)
7) Judy (3.80)
8) The Aeronauts (3.67)
9) The Report (3.66)
10) Motherless Brooklyn (3.64)
11) Lyrebird (3.62)
12) Waves (3.61)
13) Inside Bill's Brain (3.39)
14) Uncut Gems (3.22)
15) The Climb (3.07)
16) First Cow (3.02)
No People's poll in 2020.
2021:
1) The Power of the Dog (4.63)
2) The Rescue (4.20)
3) Julia (4.18)
4) Belfast (4.12)
5) King Richard (4.06)
6) C'mon C'mon (3.93)
7) The Hand of God (3.83)
8) Cyrano (3,62)
9) A Hero (3.60)
10) Marcel the Shell (3.57)
11) The Duke (3.53)
12) Spencer-tie- (3.50)
12) The Electrical Life of Louis Wain-tie- (3.50)
14) The Lost Daughter (3.44)
15) Red Rocket (3.41)
16) Petite Maman (3.25)
17) The French Dispatch (2.50)
18) Encounter (2.43)
AND NOW...THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE FOR 2022:
1) Women Talking 4.22
2) TAR 4.20
3) Sr. 3.98
4) The Wonder 3.86-(TIE)
4) One Fine Morning 3.86 (TIE) 6) Bones and All 3.77
7) Living 3.70
8) Aftersun 3.63
9) Armageddon Time 3.62
10) Broker 3.57
11) Godland 3.50
12) Empire of Light 3.43
13) Lady Chatterley's Lover 3.31
The most watched films were: TAR, Women Talking and Empire of Light, all of which were seen and rated by 85% of all respondents to the poll. Other films that were viewed by over half the respondents were:
Bones and All 72%
Armageddon Time 68%
The Wonder 57%
Living and Broker 55%
The People's poll included three films that were not in The Professional's poll: Sr., Broker and Godland. Interestingly, the film I heard the most positive buzz about all weekend was Ryan White's Good Night Oppy. Neither The People or the Pros had enough views for the film to qualify in either poll.
Also...here are the Best Picture Oscar nominees from Telluride that have landed on the Peoples list for each year since it was started in 2012:
2012: Argo-4.75 (Winner) #2, Amour-4.17 #6
2013: 12 Years a Slave-4.55 (Winner) #2, Gravity-4.40 #3, Nebraska-4.08 #6
2014: Birdman-4.46 (Winner) #2, The Imitation Game-4.73 #1
2015: Spotlight-4.45 (Winner) #2, Room-4.47 #1
2016: Moonlight-4.37 (Winner) #1, La La Land 4.33 #2, Manchester by the Sea-4.18 #5, Arrival-4.13 #6
2017: The Shape of Water-4.22 #2 (Winner), Lady Bird-4.38 #1, Darkest Hour-4.04 #3
2018: Roma-4.47, The Favourite-3.76 #9
2019: Parasite- 4.36 (Winner) #2, Ford v. Ferrari 4.35 #3, Marriage Story 4.14 #4
2021: The Power of the Dog- 4.63, Belfast- 4.12, King Richard 4.06
The all time People's Top Ten:
1) Stories We Tell (4.80) (12)
2) Argo (4.75) (12)-Won Best Picture
3) The Imitation Game (4.73) (14) Nominated Best Picture
4) The Attack (4.70) (12)
5) Tim's Vermeer (4.67) (13)
6) The Power of the Dog (4.63) (21) Nominated Best Picture
7) 12 Years a Slave (4.55) (13) Won Best Picture
8) The Two Popes (4.51) (19)
9) Roma (4.47) (15) TIE Nominated Best Picture
9) Room (4.47) (18) TIE Nominated Best Picture
The Composite Telluride will go up on Monday!
THE FABELMANS WINS TORONTO
Steven Spielberg's semi-autobiographical film The Fabelman's was named the winner of the Toronto International Film Festival's People's Choice Award yesterday... to no one's surprise. Considering critical and social media reactions to the film, the surprise would have been that it had not won. Frankly, I thought from the buzz that was coming out of TIFF that the only film that might have a shot at denying the PC Award to The Fabelmans was Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.
As it turned out, the runner-up happened to be today's MTFB People's poll topper Women Talking. Glass Onion ended up as the second runner-up.
I think you could fairly say that The Fabelmans is now the post Telluride-Venice-Toronto Best Picture frontrunner. To my mind the only possible threat to it is the upcoming release of Damien Chazelle's Babylon. I'll likely have my first set of Oscar predictions up on the blog a week from today as we close the book on the fest season for the most part and head into the Oscar season.
Belgium revealed last Friday that it will submit Lukas Dhont's Close as its candidate for the International Feature Oscar. The film, which you will note from above did not have enough views to qualify for this year's MTFB People's poll, could be a strong contender based on its reception atCannes where it won the Grand Prix award.
This is my last stab at what's going to play at Telluride this week. Of course we'll all find out the actual lineup on Thursday morning at 11:00 EDT/8PDT. I'll wake up Thursday morning in Gunnison, Co. with about a 22 and 1/2 to 3 hour drive into Telluride. My plan is to post the lineup when it lands Thursday morning and then skeedaddle to T-ride fairly quickly after.
Here's a reminder of what I had listed as my Ten (Plus) Bets last Thursday:
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) Something from Mark Cousins*
20) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*, My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*, March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher
AND HERE ARE MY FINAL BETS FOR TFF #49
The last few years I average about 23 of 25 correct...
2021: 24 of 25 correct.
2020: No fest
2019: 24 of 25
2018: 25 of 25
2017: 24 of 25
2016: 20 of 20
So, out of the last five years of Bets... 117 of 120.
We'll see what the 2022 rate is.
And now the actual "Final Bets":
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S. and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) March to Rome and/or My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins
20) Aftersun/Wells
21) Living/Hermanus
22) Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy/Buirsky
23) The Pupils/Rohrwacher
24) Anastasia/McCarthy
25) Athena/Gavras
Others Possibilities:Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins
I'm still somewhat shaky on All the Beauty..., Aftersun, Living, Athena and the new adds of Anastasia and The Pupils. We'll see what happens there.
World of Reel's Jordan Ruimy, who has worked this beat tirelessly this season, has reported this list of 23 films as of last Friday. Jordan writes:
These are the 23 films that we know are Telluride-bound:
Tar (Field)
Bones and All (Guadagnino)
Bardo (Inarritu)
The Wonder (Leilo)
Empire of Light (Mendes)
Women Talking (Polley)
A Compassionate Spy (James)
My Name is Alfred Hitchcock (Cousins)
Theatre of Thought (Werner Herzog)
Aftersun (Charlotte Wells)
Godland (Hylnur Pálmason)
The US and the Holocaust (Ken Burns)
Sr. (Smith)
Good Night Oppy (White)
Holy Spider (Abbasi)
Armageddon Time (Gray)
One Fine Morning (Hansen-Løve)
Broker (Kore-eda)
Close (Dhont)
Living (Hermanus)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Poitras)
Desperate Souls, Dark City and the Legend of Midnight Cowboy (Buirsky)
As you can see, our lists are almost exactly the same.
We'll know more in about 75 hours.
TRIBUTE GUESSES???
Bill Night/Living
Cate Blanchett/TAR
Olivia Colman/Empire of Light
Alejandro Inarritu/Bardo
Anne Hathaway/Armageddon Time
Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time
Jessica Chastain/Armageddon Time
Mark Rylance/Bones and All
Michael Stuhlbarg/Bones and All
If I get some solid intell on this before Thursday's announcement...I'll pass it on in a special post.
WHAT DOES ELLWOOD KNOW?
Last Friday Gregory Ellwood of The Playlist tweeted:
And my brain went..."What's that mean?"
Ellwood had a couple of responses that guessed that Steven Spielberg's The Fableman's had been grabbed by TFF #49. Ellwood said "No." to that. So it got me wondering what it COULD mean.
Back on Aug. 8th I posted "Star Gazing at TFF #49 which was a listing of possible "names" that might be attending based on what films I thought at that time would play TFF. I've added some further possibilities to that list:
Armageddon Time: Anne Hathaway, Jeremy Strong, Anthony Hopkins (who may have been a Tribute recipient had there been a TFF #47) and Jessica Chastain.
Bones and All: Timothee Chalamet, Taylor Russell***, Michael Stuhlbarg, Mark Rylance, Chloe Sevigny***.
Empire of Light: Colin Firth*** (Tribute 2010), Olivia Colman, Toby Jones.
One Fine Morning: Lea Seydoux***.
TAR: Cate Blanchett, Mark Strong, Nina Hoss
Women Talking: Jesse Buckley, Rooney Mara*** (Tribute 2015), Clare Foy, Ben Whishaw, Frances McDormand.
The Wonder: Florence Pugh (see story below), Toby Jones, Ciaran Hinds.
Living: Bill Nighy
Sr.: Robert Downey, Jr.
Desperate Souls, Dark City...: Jon Voight
Is that "Starry" enough for Ellwood's characterization? Maybe. Or is Ellwood hinting about an additional film or two that would pump up the list of guests?
PUGH? MAYBE NOT
Lots of buzz around Florence Pugh this week. The young actress who is starring in Venice selection Don't Worry Now as well as TFF #49 selection The Wonder is described as "doing limited press" for Venice. Explanations and conjectures center on her shooting schedule for Dune 2 as well as a controversies swirling around Don't Worry Now involving director Olivia Wilde, actors Shia LaBeouf and Harry Styles and Wilde's ex-husband, actor Jason Sudeikis.
I have assumed that there was a reasonably chance the the young and rising star might break free with her Dune 2 counterpart, Timothee Chalamet, star of Luca Guadagnino's Bones and All (which I expect to be at Telluride) and do a bit of time in the San Juans...but that looks relatively unlikely at the moment.
Pugh currently sits at #23 on IMDb's STARmeter which tracks the current popularity status of people in the biz. My current STARmeter status is: 1,180,574. Totally serious about that number.
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
For the tenth non-consecutive year MTFB is soliciting your input for The People's Telluride. All you have to do is watch films during the fest and then, when it's all over, report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings with any of the following contact methods:
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com OR michael_speech@hotmail.com
Toronto has completed announcing its lineup and we're just a week-ish away from the 49th edition of the Telluride Film Festival. Some adds and slight changes to this next-to-last set of Bets. I'll have a FINAL TEN (PLUS) BETS in Monday's MTFB post.
By way of re-capping, here's last week's Ten (Plus) Bets:
1) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) Broker/Kore-eda
4) Holy Spider/Abbasi
5) The Wonder/Lelio
6) Empire of Light/Mendes
7) Armageddon Time/Gray
8) Bardo/Inarritu
9) TAR/Fields
10) Bones and All/Guadagnino
11) Good Night Oppy/White
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Godland/Palmason
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Living/Hermanus
Others Possibilities: Close/Dhont, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, March on Rome/Cousins, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins, Athena/Gavras, Aftersun/Wells, Anastasia/McCarthy, Sr./Smith.
And here's this weeks updated Bets:
1) Empire of Light/Mendes
2) Women Talking/Polley
3) The Wonder/Lelio
4) Bardo/Iarritu
5) TAR/Field
6) Broker/Kore-eda
7) Holy Spider/Abbasi
8) Armageddon Time/Gray
9) Bones and All/Guadignino
10) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love
11) Godland/Palmason
12) A Compassionate Spy/James
13) Good Night Oppy/White
14) Theatre of Thought/Herzog
15) Sr./Smith
16 The U.S, and the Holocaust/Burns
17) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Poitras
18) Close/Dhont
19) Something from Mark Cousins*
20) Aftersun/Wells
Others Possibilities: Living/Hermanus, Tori and Lokita/Dardennes, The Forger/Peren, Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic, The Fire Within/Herzog, Dreamin' Wild/Pohlad, Argentina 1985/Mitre, The Story of Film: A New Generation/Cousins*, My Name Is Alfred Hitchcock/Cousins*, March on Rome/Cousins*, Athena/Gavras, Anastasia/McCarthy, The Pupils/Rohrwacher
EMPIRE OF LIGHT POSTER AND TEASER
One of the films that I'm most sure will ply next week at Telluride is Sam Mendes' Empire of Light. At the moment it's among my top 2-3 films to make sure to catch next week. Frankly, I wouldn't be surprised to see an Olivia Colman Tribute that includes the film...though maybe Toby Jones gets a tribute as he appears to be included in two films that will be screen next. In addition to Empire of Light Jones also appears in The Wonder.
At any rate, Searchlight has dropped a cool teaser for the film:
ATHENA GETS A TRAILER
Romain Gavras' Athena is a film that I have been including most of the season as an "Other Possibility" mostly due to its distributor: Netflix and as of late, its scheduled first screening at the Venice Film Fest-9:00 am Sept 2. That's also the same day that TAR and Bones and All are also screening initially. So...it's possible.
Netflix dropped a full trailer on Wednesday ahead of its Venice premiere (and possible Telluride SHOW).
Here's that trailer from YouTube:
IMDb's description of the film:
"Hours after the tragic death of their youngest brother in unexplained circumstances, three siblings have their lives thrown into chaos."
Irrespective if it does play Telluride is its release date for Netflix on Sept. 23rd.
RETURN OF AFTERSUN
You may have noticed that I have returned Charlotte Wells' Aftersun to the actual list of 20 films I'm expecting at TFF #49. That's because multiple sources reached out to me yesterday to let me know that the firm handling the PR for the film had sent an email to various press members that the film is screening at Toronto as a Canadian Premiere. That is at odds with what the film's premiere designation is at the TIFF website as of this morning. It's till listed as a North American Premiere there.
Aftersun is posted for the New York fest with no premiere designation which would normally signal a Telluride appearance...so with that apparent contradiction, I had moved it from the actual "Bets" to the list of "Other Possibilities"
I've thought Aftersun was a likely TFF #49 candidate since it debuted at Cannes last May. Its critical reception and its distribution by A24 made me think it was a very likely choice. Now, it seems, the record is probably set straight and so back to the "Bets" for today.
CAMDEN FILM FEST ANNOUNCEMENT SEEMS TO CONFIRM "SR." FOR TFF #49
Variety reporting selections made for the 18th annual Camden International Film Festival on Monday appear to have confirmed the Telluride world premiere of Chris smith's documentary about Indie film director Robert Downey, Sr. The film is entitled "Sr."
Here's the last paragraph of the Aug. 22nd post:
"This year’s CIFF highlights include the U.S. premiere of Tamana Ayazi and Marcel Mettelsiefen’s Netflix release “In Her Hands,” which follows one of Afghanistan’s first female mayors during the months leading up to the Taliban takeover the country in 2021; Chris Smith’s “Sr.,” centered on the life and career of Robert Downey Sr. and his relationship to his son, Robert Downey Jr.; and Steve James’ “A Compassionate Spy,” about Manhattan Project physicist, Soviet spy and University of Chicago alum Theodore Hall. Each of the three featured documentaries will have made its world premiere before CIFF, at festivals in Toronto, Telluride and Venice, respectively."
BTW, we also think T-ride is going to screen Steve James' A Compassionate Spy at TFF #49.
MARCH ON ROME POSTER
Director Mark Cousins tweeted a photo of the poster for one of his new films: March on Rome which Cousins suggested is: "The new poster for my film about fascism." Not to put too fine a point on it.
Cousins has at least 2-3 projects that could make an appearance at TFF including this one as well as The Story of Film: A New Generation and an Alfred Hitchcock film he has been working on.
Cousins has also recently tweeted about making sure he could get his passport updated for travel to America as well as this tweet from yesterday:
"From Monday for 2 weeks I will be on a film journey in several countries, doing lots of things.
I'll tweet as I go, but mute me if it's a bit much."
This lends continued creedence to my belief that the T-ride regular and TFF member of its Esteemed Council of Advisors will be there next week with something. Maybe two somethings.
