SUNDAY SPECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL

SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL 

Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees

BEST DIRECTION

Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Speilberg

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis

Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoiler: No one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Women Talking

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once

Spoliers: Banshees or TAR

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio

Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Navalny

Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR

Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST EDITING

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at  Once

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Babylon

Spoiler: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Elvis

Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Elvis

Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water

Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SOUND

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick

Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse

Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: An Irish Goodbye

Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: The Elephant Whispers

Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect

THOUGHTS

The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:

Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.

Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.

As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF.  Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.

The streak:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire

2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)

2011: The King's Speech

2012: The Artist

2013: Argo

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2015: Birdman

2016: Spotlight

2017: Moonlight

2018:The Shape of Water

2019: Green Book (not at TFF)

2020 Parasite

2021: Nomadland

2022: CODA (not at TFF)

Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars.  I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock.  TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.  

There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.

If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:

Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.

Single wins for:

Banshees: Supporting Actress

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay

GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature

Navlany: Doc Feature

RRR: Song

Babylon: Production Design

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects

Top Gun: Maverick: Sound

The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short

An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short

The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short

Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.

I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost.  And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96. 

Enjoy the madness.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: Visual and Sound and Shorts / U.S. Trailer for Tori and Lokita / Visitations: Nighy, Polley and More

 MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a third pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.  Final predictions from MTFB are coming on Sunday morning in a special Oscar's morning post.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

3) Elvis (2)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) My Year of Dicks (4)

4) Ice Merchants (5)

5) The Flying Sailor (3)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Elephant Whisperers (4)

2) Stranger at the Gate (3)

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect (1)

4) How Do You Measure a Year? (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) An Irish Goodbye (2)

2) Le Pupille (1)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) Ivalu (5)

5) The Night Ride (4)

Thoughts: Best Sound seemed almost a lock for Top Gun: Maverick two weeks ago but there is a surge of sentiment for All Quiet and Elvis isn't out of the question  

As always, the Shorts categories are virtually impenetrable.  The closest thing to a lock there appears to be for Animated Short with The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse.  Live Action and Doc Shorts are a mess.  Live Action is probably down to the top two: An Irish Goodbye and Le Pupille while Doc Shorts are all over the place.  Literally any of the five nominees are still possible winners.

U.S  TRAILER FOR TORI AND LOKITA

The Dardenne Brothers returned to Telluride in 2022 with Tori and Lokita.  It was the brothers' first time back to TFF since 2014's Two Days One Night.  Now, ahead of its March 24th limited release we have a new trailer for the U.S.  Here that is from YouTube:

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Dede Gardner with The Hollywood Reporter and Sarah Polley with Indiewire.

Living: Bill Nighy with Vanity Fair.

TAR: Todd Field with Deadline.

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Dean Fleischer Camp with Variety.

Close: Lukas Dhont with Deadline.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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MTFB Oscar Update / More on the Passing of Tom Luddy / Visitations: Sarah Polley on Women Talking

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE

Here's a second pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories   Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses.  TFF films are in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)

2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) The Batman (4)

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)

2) Elvis (2)

3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)

4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)

5)The Batman (5)

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)

3) The Flying Sailor (3)

4) My Year of Dicks (4)

5) Ice Merchants (5)

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) The Martha Mitchell Effect (3)

2) How Do You Measure a Year? (1)

3) Stranger at the Gate (4)

4) The Elephant Whisperers (2)

5) Haulout (5)

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille (1)

2) An Irish Goodbye (2)

3) The Red Suitcase (3)

4) The Night ride (5)

5) Ivalu (4)

MORE ON THE PASSING OF TOM LUDDY

On Tuesday The Guardian posted an incredible homage to TFF co-founder, the late Tom Luddy.  It's notable for the sheer number of people included and the reverence that is reveled for Luddy.  Among those included in the memorials are: Paul Schrader, Laurie Anderson, Errol Morris, Tilda Swinton, Salman Rushdie, Alice Waters and Werner Herzog.

Take a look at the post.  It is incredible.

VISITATIONS

Women Talking: Sarah Polley with The Hollywood Reporter.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Winner Predictions Part Four / Visitations: Polley, Whishaw, Buckley and More

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE FIRST WINNER PREDICTIONS PART FOUR

Here's the last of my first pass at predicting what films and performances will win Oscars on March 12th.  Over the past two weeks I have predicted the other 18 categories.  Going forward I will continue to update categories at the same intervals culminating in a final set of predictions on Oscar morning.  Today's initial predictions for the final five categories follow.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

1) Avatar: The Way of Water

2) Top Gun: Maverick

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) The Batman

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST SOUND

1) Top Gun: Maverick

2) Elvis

3) All Quiet on the Western Front

4) Avatar: The Way of Water

5)The Batman

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse

2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake...

3) The Flying Sailor

4) My Year of Dicks

5) Ice Merchants

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

1) How Do You Measure a Year?

2) The Elephant Whisperers

3) The Martha Mitchell Effect

4) Stranger at the Gate

5) Haulout

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

1) Le Pupille

2) An Irish Goodbye

3) The Red Suitcase

4) Ivalu

5) The Night Ride

Comments:

The Visual Effects win for Avatar/Water and Sound win for TG: Maverick seem pretty likely at this point. 

As always the Short Films categories are really anyone's guess, though the buzz for The Boy, the Mole etc. has it feeling like the most certain winner in any of the three shorts categories.  The Doc and Live Action Shorts categories are totally up in the air.

After the initial prognostications over the past two weeks I have TFF films winning four statues on March 12th:

Cate Blanchett/Best Actress/TAR

Women Talking/Adapted Screenplay

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed/Best Doc

Le Pupille/Best Live Action Short

And among the 20 feature categories, win totals predicted:

Films with multiple predicted wins:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

Top Gun: Maverick with two: Editing and Sound

Films with single predicted wins:

TAR: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon: Original Score.

RRR: Original Song.

All Quiet on the Western Front: International Feature.

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Documentary Feature.

Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects.

I can still see the possibility of Everything Everywhere winning up to six.  The three I have predicted at this point plus Direction, Actress and Editing.

I have Banshees being shut out, but it's still very much alive for Original Screenplay and Colin Farrell is still a viable Best Actor winner.  We'll see how that evolves over the next few weeks.

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING: Sarah Polley and Ben Whishaw for London Live.  Jesse Buckley on the BBC Women's Hour.

ARMAGEDDON TIME: James Gray for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

ONE FINE MORNING: Mia Hansen-Love for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

SR.: Chris Smith for FLC Luminaries (YouTube).

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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SPECIAL POST: OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

TFF Films in Bold.

Best Picture

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

“Elvis”

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

“The Fabelmans”

“TÁR”

“Top Gun: Maverick”

“Triangle of Sadness”

“Women Talking”

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)

Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Actor

Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)

Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best International Feature Film

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Germany)

“Argentina, 1985” (Santiago Mitre, Argentina)

“Close” (Lukas Dhont, Belgium)

“EO” (Poland)

“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Cinematography

James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Darius Khondji (“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”)

Mandy Walker (“Elvis”)

Roger Deakins (“Empire of Light”)

Florian Hoffmeister (“Tár”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)

Kazuo Ishiguro (“Living”)

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

Best Original Screenplay

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Animated Feature

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (ShadowMachine/Netflix)

“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)

“Turning Red” (Pixar/Disney)

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks/Universal)

“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney/Marvel)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

Best Editing

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“TÁR” (Focus Features)

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Production Design

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Fabelmans” (Universal)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Whale” (A24)

Best Costume Design

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)

Best Sound

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

Contenders

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Feature

“All That Breathes”

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

“Fire of Love”

“A House Made of Splinters”

“Navalny”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers”

“Haulout”

“How Do You Measure a Year?”

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

“Stranger at the Gate”

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye”

“Ivalu”

“Le Pupille”

“Night Ride”

“The Red Suitcase”

Best Animated Short

“The Flying Sailor”

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

“Ice Merchants”

“My Year of Dicks”

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Best Original Song

“Hold My Hand” — Lady Gaga (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

“Lift Me Up”— Rihanna (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

“Naatu Naatu”— Kaala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, and Rahul Sipligunj (“RRR”)

“Applause”— Diane Warren (“Tell It Like a Woman”)

“This Is a Life”— David Byrne, Ryan Lott, and Mitski (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Original Score

Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”)

John Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Son Lux (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

TFF films earn 17 nominations.  16 from TFF #49 and one from TFF #48.

TAR leads the Telluride crew with six: Best Picture, Actress, Direction, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography.

Women Calling and Living each got two nominations.  Women Calling for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay.  Living for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Aftersun: Best Actor

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Doc

Close: Best International Feature

Empire of Light: Cinematography

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film (TFF #48)

Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths: Cinematography

Le Pupille: Best Live Action Short

Everything everywhere All at Once had the most nominations with 11.  Followed by The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine each.

I'm pleased that Nighy is Oscar nominated and that Women Talking made the field for Best Picture.

I go 93 out of 120 for a 77.5% rate.

My best categories were Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects where I was 5 of 5.  My categories were Cinematography and Doc Short where I went 2 of 5.

My  point of pride: Picking All Quiet on the Western Front to get nine nominations which it did.  Although I had Edward Berger getting a Best Director nomination which did not happen.  However All Quiet picked up a nom for Best Score that I did not predict.

More on Thursday!

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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