Sunday, March 12, 2023

SUNDAY SPECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL

SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL 



Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23.  TFF films in Bold.

BEST PICTURE:

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees

BEST DIRECTION

Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: Speilberg

BEST ACTRESS

Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR

BEST ACTOR

Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis
Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin
Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: No one.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Winner: Women Talking
Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoliers: Banshees or TAR

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

Winner: Navalny
Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR
Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoiler: Elvis

BEST EDITING

Winner: Everything Everywhere All at  Once
Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Winner: Babylon
Spoiler: Elvis

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Winner: Elvis
Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

BEST MAKEUP/HAIR

Winner: Elvis
Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick

BEST SOUND

Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front

BEST ANIMATED SHORT

Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse
Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT

Winner: An Irish Goodbye
Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

Winner: The Elephant Whispers
Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect

THOUGHTS

The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:

Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.

Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.

As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF.  Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.

The streak:

2009: Slumdog Millionaire
2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2011: The King's Speech
2012: The Artist
2013: Argo
2014: 12 Years a Slave
2015: Birdman
2016: Spotlight
2017: Moonlight
2018:The Shape of Water
2019: Green Book (not at TFF)
2020 Parasite
2021: Nomadland
2022: CODA (not at TFF)

Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars.  I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock.  TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.  

There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.

If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:

Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.

Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.

All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.

Single wins for:

Banshees: Supporting Actress
Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay
GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature
Navlany: Doc Feature
RRR: Song
Babylon: Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects
Top Gun: Maverick: Sound
The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short
An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short
The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short

Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.

I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost.  And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96. 

Enjoy the madness.



EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

MTFB is published on Mondays and Thursdays




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