SUNDAY SOECIAL: MTFB'S OSCAR FINAL
Here it is everyone, everywhere...my final Oscar winners predictions for 2022-23. TFF films in Bold.
BEST PICTURE:
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Possible Spoilers: All Quiet, Top Gun, Banshees
BEST DIRECTION
Winner(s): Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: Speilberg
BEST ACTRESS
Winner: Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: Cate Blanchett/TAR
BEST ACTOR
Winner: Austin Butler/Elvis
Spoilers: Brendan Fraser/The Whale or Colin Farrell/Banshees
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Winner: Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin
Spoilers: Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere. Angela Bassett/BP: Wakanda Forever
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Winner: Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: No one.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Winner: Women Talking
Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoliers: Banshees or TAR
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoilers: Argentina 1985 or Close
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Winner: Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio
Spoiler: Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Winner: Navalny
Spoilers: Fire of Love or All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoilers: Babylon, Fabelmans
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Winner: Naatu Naatu/RRR
Spoiler: Hold My Hand/Top Gun
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
Winner: All Quiet on the Western Front
Spoiler: Elvis
BEST EDITING
Winner: Everything Everywhere All at Once
Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Winner: Babylon
Spoiler: Elvis
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Winner: Elvis
Spoiler: Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
BEST MAKEUP/HAIR
Winner: Elvis
Spoilers: All Quiet on the Western Front or The Whale
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Winner: Avatar: The Way of Water
Spoiler: Top Gun: Maverick
BEST SOUND
Winner: Top Gun: Maverick
Spoiler: All Quiet on the Western Front
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
Winner: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse
Spoilers: An Ostrich Told Me and My Year of Dicks
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Winner: An Irish Goodbye
Spoilers: Le Pupille or The Red Suitcase
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Winner: The Elephant Whispers
Spoiler: Stranger at the Gate or The Martha Mitchell Effect
THOUGHTS
The 14 categories that will determine who wins your Oscar pool:
Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Original Screenplay, Documentary, Cinematography, Editing, Score, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and the three Shorts categories.
Tightest races from what I can see: Actress, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Score, Editing and Documentary Short.
As for Telluride we're likely to see the second straight year and the third of the last five years where the winner did not play at TFF. Telluride had been on a long streak from Slumdog in 2009 to Nomadland in 2021.
The streak:
2009: Slumdog Millionaire
2010: The Hurt Locker (not at TFF)
2011: The King's Speech
2012: The Artist
2013: Argo
2014: 12 Years a Slave
2015: Birdman
2016: Spotlight
2017: Moonlight
2018:The Shape of Water
2019: Green Book (not at TFF)
2020 Parasite
2021: Nomadland
2022: CODA (not at TFF)
Optimally it looks like the best TFF films might achieve from the 17 TFF nominations is seven Oscars. I am currently predicting one win and that's for Sarah Polley's Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and that is certainly no lock. TFF"s next best bet is Cate Blanchett for Best Actress in TAR.
There's a very real possibility that for the first time since 2009 that no TFF film will take home an Oscar.
If my predictions are 100% accurate (and I average 70-75%) this is how Oscar #95 turns out:
Everything Everywhere wins six: Picture, Direction, Actress, Supporting Actor, Original Screenplay and Editing.
Elvis wins three: Actor, Makeup/Hair and Costumes.
All Quiet wins three: International Feature, Cinematography and Original Score.
Single wins for:
Banshees: Supporting Actress
Women Talking: Adapted Screenplay
GDT's Pinocchio: Animated Feature
Navlany: Doc Feature
RRR: Song
Babylon: Production Design
Avatar: The Way of Water: Visual Effects
Top Gun: Maverick: Sound
The Boy, the Mole, the fox and the Horse: Animated Short
An Irish Goodbye: Live Action Short
The Elephant Whisperers: Doc Short
Finally, this year's Oscar race has been wildly unpredictable so expect some surprises tonight.
I'll have a post-Oscars post up tomorrow for my regularly scheduled blogpost. And we'll start it all over again for TFF #50 and Oscar #96.
Enjoy the madness.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
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