Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
Here's a third pass at predicting Visual Effects, Sound and the Shorts categories Previous rankings are to the right of each film in parentheses. TFF films are in Bold. Final predictions from MTFB are coming on Sunday morning in a special Oscar's morning post.
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
1) Avatar: The Way of Water (1)
2) Top Gun: Maverick (2)
3) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)
4) The Batman (4)
5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (5)
BEST SOUND
1) Top Gun: Maverick (1)
2) All Quiet on the Western Front (3)
3) Elvis (2)
4) Avatar: The Way of Water (4)
5)The Batman (5)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT
1) The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse (1)
2) An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake... (2)
3) My Year of Dicks (4)
4) Ice Merchants (5)
5) The Flying Sailor (3)
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
1) The Elephant Whisperers (4)
2) Stranger at the Gate (3)
3) The Martha Mitchell Effect (1)
4) How Do You Measure a Year? (2)
5) Haulout (5)
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
1) An Irish Goodbye (2)
2) Le Pupille (1)
3) The Red Suitcase (3)
4) Ivalu (5)
5) The Night Ride (4)
Thoughts: Best Sound seemed almost a lock for Top Gun: Maverick two weeks ago but there is a surge of sentiment for All Quiet and Elvis isn't out of the question
As always, the Shorts categories are virtually impenetrable. The closest thing to a lock there appears to be for Animated Short with The Boy, The Mole, The Fox and The Horse. Live Action and Doc Shorts are a mess. Live Action is probably down to the top two: An Irish Goodbye and Le Pupille while Doc Shorts are all over the place. Literally any of the five nominees are still possible winners.
U.S TRAILER FOR TORI AND LOKITA
The Dardenne Brothers returned to Telluride in 2022 with Tori and Lokita. It was the brothers' first time back to TFF since 2014's Two Days One Night. Now, ahead of its March 24th limited release we have a new trailer for the U.S. Here that is from YouTube:
I am updating predictions in the categories of Best Supporting Actress and Best Supporting Actor. These were last predicted on Oct. 13th. Past ranking is to the right of the performer in parentheses. Performances from TFF #49 are in Bold.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
1) Jesse Buckley/Women Talking (1)
2) Clare Foy/Women Talking (2)
3) Hong Chau/The Whale (3)
4) Carey Mulligan/She Said (New)
5) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin (4)
6) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once (6)
7) Janelle Monae/Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery (7)
Out: Nina Hoss/TAR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
1) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin (1)
2) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once (2)
3) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans (3)
4) Ben Whishaw/Women Talking (4)
5) Paul Dano/The Fabelmans (5)
6) Eddie Redmayne/The Good Nurse (7)
7) Anthony Hopkins/Armageddon Time (New)
Out: Jeremy Strong/Armageddon Time
GOTHAM AWARDSNOMINATIONSAND TFF #49
The Gotham Awards announced their nominations for the best in independent film. TFF #49 title TAR scared five nominations to lead all films.
Here's the breakdown of Telluride entrants who were nominated on Tuesday:
TAR (5): Best Feature, Lead Performance (Blanchett), Supporting Performance (Hoss), Supporting Performance (Merchant), Screenplay
Aftersun (4): Best Feature, Breakthrough Director (Wells), Lead Performance (Mescal) Breakthrough Performer (Corio)
Women Talking (3); Best Supporting Performance (Buckley), Supporting Performance (Whishaw), Screenplay
Bones and All (2): Best Supporting Performance (Russell), Supporting Performance (Rylance)
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (1): Best Documentary
Armageddon Time (1): Best Screenplay
In total, TFF #49 films accounted for 16 Gotham nominations for 2022.
Pardon the interruption. MTFB didn't publish last Thursday as I was in the middle of a trip to NYC. But I'm back (albeit later than normal) today. Apologies to any and all that were waiting on on a Thursday post. To be honest, this summer is crazy busy so don't be all that surprised if the Blog isn't as consistent as it usually is regarding the Monday/Thursday posting schedule.
BABYLON'S FATE?
Margot Robbie on the set of Babylon (per Fox)
Jordan Ruimy (World of Reel) is reporting that the highly anticipated Damien Chazelle film Babylon ,ay or may not be a festival player. Ruimy says that Paramount hasn't yet decided on what path they want to take with the film which is set for a December release.
Babylon has been high on the MTFB radar since it was announced as Chazelle was selected for Telluride twice over the last few years for La La Land in 2016 and First Man in 2018.
Babylon is described as a history of Hollywood as the film community makes the transition from silent films to talkies. The film stars Margo Robbie and Brad Pitt.
Another story from Jordan from the last week concerns rumors of a difficult shoot of another film that has been high on the MTFB anticipation and TFF expectation list: Noah Baumbach's White Noise. Baumbach's Telluride pedigree has been solid with appearances for Margot at the Wedding (2007), Frances Ha (2012) and Marriage Story (2019).
IMDb has the film listed as being in post-production and expected as a 2022 release from Netflix with A24 also acting in a production capacity.
DARDENNES' TORI AND LOKITA ACQUIRED
Deadline reports that The Dardenne's Brothers' Tori and Lokita, which picked up a special 75th Anniversary prize at Cannes last month has been picked up for U.S. distribution by the combination of Janis and Sideshow. That coupling was the same crew that brought Oscar winner Drive My Car to the U.S. (and Telluride) last year.
That acquisition surely keeps the Dardennes fellows on the TFF #49 watch list.
Ruben Ostlund won his second Palme d'Or on Saturday for his Triangle of Sadness. My expectation, at least for the moment is that likely means this will be a TFF that does not host the Palme winner. Ostlund's previous two Cannes films (Force Majeure and The Square) did not make the Cannes-TFF connection. That doesn't mean it can't happen just that it is historically unlikely.
Films that could have a boost with Cannes accolades leading to a Telluride selection:
Lukas Dhont's Close (tied for the Grand Prix)
Claire Denis' Stars at Noon (tied for Grand Prix)
Park Chan-wook's Decision to Leave (Best Direction)
Jerzy Skolimowski's EO (tied for Jury Prize)
The Dardennes Brothers' Tori and Lokita (Special 75th Anniversary Award)
Ali Abassi's Holy Spider (Best Actress-Zar Amir-Ebrahimi)
The documentary about Leonard Cohen's most famous song that played as a part of the TFF #48 lineup has a trailer now. The release happened this week from distrib Sony Pictures Classics. The film is scheduled for release on July 1st.
World of Reel reports that Mia Hansen -Love's One Fine Morning will play as a part of the Director's Fortnight that runs alongside the Cannes Film Festival (May 17-28). The film is definitely of note as Hansen-Love has long been a favorite of Telluride programmers. Hansen-Love fare that has screened at Telluride includes Bergman Island, Things to Come and Goodbye First Love. You have to figure that there is a high likelihood that this new film makes the jump from Cannes to Telluride.
Friend of MTFB and general film genius Jason Osiason has dug up a great TFF #49 potential. He has tracked the film Tuesday and its director Daina Oniunas-Pusic. Oniunas-Pusic has had two shorts make the Telluride program: 2015's The Beast and 2016's Rhonna and Donna.
The film is described as a "drama-fantasy" and features Julia Louis-Dreyfus of Veep/Seinfeld/SNL fame. The fil also comes from A24 which also lends some credence to the notion that a Telluride play is a possibility.
Along with last week's announcement of Cannes titles for 2022 were photos from a number of the films. Of course, I have targeted some of those titles as TFF #49 possibilities and so pass on some of the pics that were released last week:
