Oscar #95 Postmortem / Looking Forward

OSCAR #95 POSTMORTEM

When the Oscar's show ended Sunday night I was a bit disappointed in my 18-5 record predicting the Oscar outcome.  That's a success rate of 78.3%.  Respectable and about what I have averaged over the years since I started doing Oscar picks as a part of the aftermath of covering the Telluride Film Festival.  Of the five I missed, the only one that wasn't in last Sunday's post that wasn't a pick or at least a possible spoiler was All Quiet on the Western Front in Production Design.  Curtis and Fraser were both listed as "Spoilers" in their acting categories as were BP: Wakanda Forever and The Whale were for Costumes and Makeup/Hair respectively.  So I felt a little better.

Then Monday morning I took a peek at Gold Derby's Experts chart and felt a lot better.  Turns out that had I been listed among their experts I would have finished second to Perter Travers of ABC TV.  Peter went 19-4.  Two other experts were at 18-5 like me but Gold Derby has a points system that had me ahead of them substantially.  I won't name names but I came out ahead of a lot of the pros and that, I'm a little embarrassed to say, makes me feel pretty, pretty good.

The Gold Derby Experts results chart is linked here.

Of course, to bring me back to Earth, I finished 701 out of nearly 10,861 non-professional users...that's in the top 6.5%.  My points accumulated: 12,919:

So, all-in-all...not a bad record for me in 2023.

ALSO- turns out I made it onto Awards Daily's Big Bad Prediction Chart after I posted final predictions on Sunday morning.  Here's the link to that.

Over the last ten Oscars, here's what the MTFB success rate has been:

2023: 18/23 78.3% (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

2022: 21/23 91.3% (Coda)

2021: 16/23 69.6% (Nomadland)

2020: 19/24 79.2% (Parasite)

2019: 19/24 79.2% (Green Book)

2018: 21/24 87.5% (The Shape of Water)

2017: 15/24 62.5% (Moonlight)

2016: 15/24 62.5% (Spotlight)

2015: 20/24 83.3% (Birdman)

2014: 22/24 91.7% (12 Years a Slave)

That's 186/237 over the decade for a success rate at 78.5%.

Oscar 2023 was a rough year for Telluride films.  TFF films earned 17 nominations but only one took home a trophy and that was Sarah Polley for Best Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking.  Other places where TFF films had a realistic shot but came up short included Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for TAR, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed in Documentary Feature and Le Pupille in Live Action Short.

The 1 for 17 finish marked the lowest TFF Oscar haul since 2009 when TFF films had 16 nominations spread among seven films and none took home an Oscar.  The last time TFF had a one Oscar year was 2001 when No Man's Land won Best Foreign Language Film.

As I have mentioned, you might consider Everything Everywhere All at Once TFF-adjacent due to the fest's feting of Michelle Yeoh as a part of a salute to Sony Pictures Classics 30th Anniversary with a screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  I suspect Yeoh's appearance was, in part, to keep her in the limelight during the fall fest season for EEAAO's and her run to the Oscars.  I know nothing, but a calculation of that sort makes a good deal of sense.

Also in the "TFF adjacent" category was Documentary Feature winner Navalny which reportedly screened at one pf the parks in Telluride the Wednesday night before the fest opened.

LOOKING FORWARD

As we turn our attention away from Oscar season and back to TFF #50 speculation.  We'll be looking for three areas for clues.  Way-too-early Oscar predictions and the Cannes lineup and the post Berlin Film Fest's slate of films.  Cannes and Telluride average a 6-8 film overlap from year to year.  Additionally, early Oscar prognostications can give us insight into what Oscar watchers think will be the most "important" films of the year which usually translates into films that, at least early on, seem like films that many of the major film fests will want to program.

We already know that Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer and Greta Gerwig's Barbie are off the table as they are both announced for a July 21st release.  But despite that, there are a bunch of interesting possibilities on the table.

The first too early Oscar forecast I ran across from a major outlet was from The A.V. Club.  Among the titles of 23 possible Best Picture nominees were seven films that are on my early TFF #50 watch list:

AND from Yorgos Lanthimos

The Color Purple from Blitz Bazawule

The Holdovers from Alexander Payne

The Killer from David Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese

Next Goal Wins from Taika Waititi

Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos

Here's the link to the A.V. Club's full list.

Meanwhile, for a good listing of potential Cannes selections, take a look at Jordan Ruimy's evolving list at World of Reel which currently includes a number of intriguing possible overlapping films between Cannes and T-ride including from the list above: Flower Moon and Poor Things.

Others that seem at least possible for TFF #50:

May/December-Todd Haynes

Monster -Hirokazu Kore-eda

Priscilla-Sofia Coppola

The Royal Hotel-Kitty Green

And finally from Berlin, Gold Derby compiled as list of 20 films and among those are some titles that are worth noting as possible TFF choices:

She Came to Me-Rebecca Miller

The Survival of Kindness-Rolf de Heer

Ingeborg Bachmann-Journey Into the Desert-Margerethe Von Trotta

Afire-Christian Petzold

Here's the complete list of 20 Berlin films from Gold Derby.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions / Visitations : Blanchett and More

FIRST OSCAR WINNER PREDICITONS

We're headed for March 12th and the 95th Academy Awards and now that nominations are known (with the possible exception of Andrea Riseborough) here's your first look at predicted winners.  I'll start today with six  major categories and then add six more for each of the next three posts.  Each set will then be updated every two weeks until the final set of predictions on Oscar Sunday.

As always, films from TFF are in Bold.

BEST PICTURE

1) Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) The Fabelmans

3) The Banshees of Inisherin

4)  Top Gun: Maverick

5) TAR

6) Elvis

7) All Quiet on the Western Front

8) Triangle of Sadness

9) Avatar: The Way of Water

10) Women Talking

BEST DIRECTION

1) Steven Spielberg/The Fabelmans

2) Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Martin McDonagh/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Todd Field/TAR

5) Ruben Ostlund/Triangle of Sadness

BEST ACTRESS

1) Cate Blanchett/TAR

2) Michelle Yeoh/Everything Everywhere All at Once

3) Michelle Williams/The Fabelmans

4) Ana de Armas/Blonde

5) Andrea Riseborough/To Leslie

BEST ACTOR

1) Brendan Fraser/The Whale

2) Austin Butler/Elvis

3) Colin Farrell/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Bill Nighy/Living

5) Paul Mescal/Aftersun

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

1) Angela Bassett/Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

2) Kerry Condon/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Jamie Lee Curtis/Everything Everywhere All at Once

4) Hong Chau/The Whale

5) Stephanie Hsu/Everything Everywhere All at Once

BEST SUPPORTNG ACTOR

1) Ke Huy Quan/Everything Everywhere All at Once

2) Brendan Gleeson/The Banshees of Inisherin

3) Barry Keoghan/The Banshees of Inisherin

4) Judd Hirsch/The Fabelmans

5) Bryan Tyree Henry/Causeway

On Thursday I'll add predictions for Screenplays, Score, Song, Cinematography and Editing.

VISITATIONS

CLOSE

Lukas Dhont at The Playlist.

TAR

Cate Blanchett on Focus Features YouTube channel.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

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Post Oscar Nomination Thoughts / Writer's Guild and TFF / U.S. Trailer for Godland / Visitations: Foy, Buckley and More

POST OSCAR NOMINATION THOUGHTS

So after  last Tuesday we have moved to the final phase of the 95th Oscar season in which Academy voters will winnow nominees down to winners in the 23 categories.  Final voting runs from March 2nd and ends March 7th with the ceremony set for March 12th.

Some random thoughts about what we know and what might be coming.

Everything Everywhere All at Once was always going to have a big morning last Tuesday but even the EEAAO crew had to be a little surprised that the film picked up 11 nominations and was the only film earning double digit nominations.

All Quiet on the Western Front; I had it getting nine nominations and was pretty queasy that I had gone overboard assessing its chances.  I really did think that my predilection for picking it would wreck my overall level accuracy.  In so many of its categories I had it getting in at the fifth spot.  Shaky at best.  But all turned out fairly well.  AQOTHWF did get nine nominations.  My predictions very nearly matched nomination for nomination save for picking Edward Berger getting in for Best Direction.  That didn't happen but the film picked up a nomination for Original Score which put it at nine total nominations.

TFF:  TAR overperformed a bit with its six nominations.  I had it predicted for four (Picture, Direction, Actress and Original screenplay) all of which it got in addition to Cinematography and Editing.

I had hoped Women Talking would get a least Supporting Acting nomination and had predicted a Best Original Score nomination but those did not materialize.  I was gratified that it pulled in that Best Picture nomination.  Many thought that it would not and my prediction was shaky.

I was also very pleased to see Bill Nighy get his first ever Oscar nomination.

Ultimately I had TFF films earning 16 nominations and they ended up with 17.

I was [leased that I went 93 for 120 for a success rate of 77.5% which, I gather, was a respectable number for Oscarologists.  Over at Gold Derby I would have finished behind just two experts: Indiewire's Anne Thompson who was tops with 95/120 and Gold Derby's Joyce Eng who had 94/120.

So yeah, it's true.  I outperformed a bunch of the folks who get paid to do this stuff.  Here's the link to all of the experts scores from Gold Derby.

Now it's on to March 12th.  Several actual races to make this a fun end to the awards season.  The Best Picture front runner right now seems to be Everything Everywhere but it's certainly not a lock.  Best Actor seems like a tight race between Fraser, Butler and Farrell.  Best Actress looks like  a showdown between Blanchett and Yeoh.  Supporting Actress seems to be leaning toward Angela Bassett but I wouldn't count out Condon or Curtis.  Supporting Actor looks like a slam dunk for Ke Huy Quan.  Best Direction appears to be a battle between The Daniels (Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinart) and Steven Spielberg.  

I'll start predicting for the winners in next Monday's post.

WRITER'S GUILD AND TFF

The Writer's Guild of America announced its nominees for the best work in screenplays for 2022 yesterday.  TFF #49 films scored a nomination in each of the three categories.  Todd Field earned a nomination for Best Original Screenplay for TAR.  Sarah Polley was nominated for penning the Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking and Ondi Timoner was nominated for the best screenplay for a documentary for the Last Flight Home.

As is often the case, a number of Oscar nominated screenplays likely missed out due being ineligible for the WGA honor such as The Banshees of Inisherin, Living and All Quiet on the Western Front.

The WGA will announce its winners on March 5th.

Here is the complete list of WGA nominees.

U.S TRAILER FOR GODLAND

VISITATIONS

WOMEN TALKING

Sarah Polley on the WTF podcast.

Claire Foy and Jesse Buckley on ming5.com. 

EMPIRE OF LIGHT

Micheal Ward from Vanity Fair.

EMAIL:  mpgort@gmail.com

TWITTER @TheMTFB OR @Gort2 

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SPECIAL POST: OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

OSCAR NOMINATIONS ANNOUNCED

TFF Films in Bold.

Best Picture

“All Quiet on the Western Front”

“Avatar: The Way of Water”

“The Banshees of Inisherin”

“Elvis”

“Everything Everywhere All at Once”

“The Fabelmans”

“TÁR”

“Top Gun: Maverick”

“Triangle of Sadness”

“Women Talking”

Best Director

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Dan Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Actress

Cate Blanchett (“TÁR”)

Ana de Armas (“Blonde”)

Andrea Riseborough (“To Leslie”)

Michelle Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Actor

Austin Butler (“Elvis”)

Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”)

Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”)

Bill Nighy (“Living”)

Best Supporting Actor

Brendan Gleeson (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Brian Tyree Henry (“Causeway”)

Judd Hirsch (“The Fabelmans”)

Barry Keoghan (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ke Huy Quan (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Supporting Actress

Angela Bassett (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

Hong Chau (“The Whale”)

Kerry Condon (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Stephanie Hsu (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Jamie Lee Curtis (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best International Feature Film

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Edward Berger, Germany)

“Argentina, 1985” (Santiago Mitre, Argentina)

“Close” (Lukas Dhont, Belgium)

“EO” (Poland)

“The Quiet Girl” (Ireland)

Best Cinematography

James Friend (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Darius Khondji (“Bardo, False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths”)

Mandy Walker (“Elvis”)

Roger Deakins (“Empire of Light”)

Florian Hoffmeister (“Tár”)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, and Lesley Paterson (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Rian Johnson (“Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery”)

Kazuo Ishiguro (“Living”)

Ehren Kruger, Christopher McQuarrie, and Eric Warren Singer (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

Sarah Polley (“Women Talking”)

Best Original Screenplay

Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Todd Field (“TÁR”)

Tony Kushner and Steven Spielberg (“The Fabelmans”)

Martin McDonagh (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Ruben Östlund (“Triangle of Sadness”)

Best Animated Feature

“Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (ShadowMachine/Netflix)

“Marcel the Shell with Shoes On” (A24)

“Turning Red” (Pixar/Disney)

“Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” (DreamWorks/Universal)

“The Sea Beast” (Netflix)

Best Visual Effects

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Disney/Marvel)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

Best Editing

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“TÁR” (Focus Features)

“The Banshees of Inisherin” (Searchlight Pictures)

Best Production Design

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century Studios/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Fabelmans” (Universal)

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Whale” (A24)

Best Costume Design

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” (Marvel/Disney)

“Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

“Babylon” (Paramount)

“Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris” (Focus Features)

Best Sound

“Top Gun: Maverick” (Paramount)

“Elvis” (Warner Bros.)

“Avatar: The Way of Water” (20th Century/Disney)

Contenders

“All Quiet on the Western Front” (Netflix)

“The Batman” (Warner Bros.)

Best Documentary Feature

“All That Breathes”

“All the Beauty and the Bloodshed”

“Fire of Love”

“A House Made of Splinters”

“Navalny”

Best Documentary Short Subject

“The Elephant Whisperers”

“Haulout”

“How Do You Measure a Year?”

“The Martha Mitchell Effect”

“Stranger at the Gate”

Best Live Action Short

“An Irish Goodbye”

“Ivalu”

“Le Pupille”

“Night Ride”

“The Red Suitcase”

Best Animated Short

“The Flying Sailor”

“The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse”

“Ice Merchants”

“My Year of Dicks”

“An Ostrich Told Me the World Is Fake and I Think I Believe It”

Best Original Song

“Hold My Hand” — Lady Gaga (“Top Gun: Maverick”)

“Lift Me Up”— Rihanna (“Black Panther: Wakanda Forever”)

“Naatu Naatu”— Kaala Bhairava, M.M. Keeravani, and Rahul Sipligunj (“RRR”)

“Applause”— Diane Warren (“Tell It Like a Woman”)

“This Is a Life”— David Byrne, Ryan Lott, and Mitski (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

Best Original Score

Justin Hurwitz (“Babylon”)

John Williams (“The Fabelmans”)

Volker Bertelmann (“All Quiet on the Western Front”)

Carter Burwell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”)

Son Lux (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”)

TFF films earn 17 nominations.  16 from TFF #49 and one from TFF #48.

TAR leads the Telluride crew with six: Best Picture, Actress, Direction, Original Screenplay, Editing and Cinematography.

Women Calling and Living each got two nominations.  Women Calling for Best Picture and Adapted Screenplay.  Living for Best Actor and Adapted Screenplay.

Single nominations for:

Aftersun: Best Actor

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed: Best Doc

Close: Best International Feature

Empire of Light: Cinematography

Marcel the Shell with Shoes On: Best Animated Film (TFF #48)

Bardo: False Chronicle of a Handful of Truths: Cinematography

Le Pupille: Best Live Action Short

Everything everywhere All at Once had the most nominations with 11.  Followed by The Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front with nine each.

I'm pleased that Nighy is Oscar nominated and that Women Talking made the field for Best Picture.

I go 93 out of 120 for a 77.5% rate.

My best categories were Best Actor, Supporting Actress, Original Screenplay, Production Design, Makeup/Hair and Visual Effects where I was 5 of 5.  My categories were Cinematography and Doc Short where I went 2 of 5.

My  point of pride: Picking All Quiet on the Western Front to get nine nominations which it did.  Although I had Edward Berger getting a Best Director nomination which did not happen.  However All Quiet picked up a nom for Best Score that I did not predict.

More on Thursday!

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