Challengers to Open Venice / Speaking of Venice... / TFF #50 Poster???

CHALLENGERS TO OPEN VENICE

The Venice Film Festival announced last Thursday that Luca Guadagnino's Challengers would be their opening film.  Guadagninio's tennis set love triangle starring Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor has been sitting on my "maybe" list for TFF #50 for awhile mostly because of Luca's Bones and All and Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams having had appeared as apart of the TFF #49 program.

Now, its selection as the Opening Night film doesn't necessarily preclude it from also playing Telluride.  Heck, I write on here every year about paying attention to when Venice schedules their screenings as films that screen in the first 3-4 days can and often do move on to Telluride.  

However...

There is a winkle here. Venice Openers are not a consistent Telluride play.  It hasn't happened since 2018 when Damien Chazelle's First Man opened Venice and then came to TFF.  As a matter of fact, since I started attending Telluride in 2006, the Venice Opener has only then played Telluride six times:

2018: First Man

2017: Downsizing

2016: La La Land

2014: Birdman

2013: Gravity

2010: Black Swan

Again, all of this doesn't mean that Challengers won't make it to Telluride but it seems like a bit of an uphill struggle at this point.

[This story has been corrected from an earlier version which cited incorrect dates.]

SPEAKING OF VENICE...

Alberto Barbera, the director of the Venice Fest, is set to announce the bulk of their lineup on July 25th.  I checked in with World of reel which has been keeping a running list of possible Venetian titles for possible films that will do a stop in Telluride after making their World Premiere on the Lido.

WOR's latest came down on Friday.  You can see the complete list here.

From this latest speculation, here are my best guesses re: what could make the trip to Colorado:

Lee/Ellen Kuras

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

El Conde/Pablo Larrain

Saltburn/Emerald Fenell

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Fingernails/Christos Nikou

TFF #50 POSTER???

I wrote on June 26th about the lack of information regarding TFF 2023"S Guest Director(s).  Normally the Guest Director(s) is/are announced in June and, of late, usually the third week of June.  

However, I suspect that the Fest's leadership is following (at least to some extent) the playbook from TFF #40.  Back in 2013, I don't believe the Festival released any Guest Directing info until the lineup was announced the day before the fest began.

So I won't be surprised if that's how TFF plays it this time around.

But the poster...

For most of the years I've been blogging about Telluride the poster announcement was likely to happen in May or early-to-mid June.  That's true for 2009-2016.  We even knew the poster for TFF #40 on May 30th of that year.

Beginning with 2017, the announcement has come in July three of five times.  The exceptions are a way early announcement in 2021 (it came in February).  The other is from 2018 when Woody Pirtle was the artist but I haven't been able to pin down the date that The SHOW made that announcement.

The latest poster announcement I can find was Edwina White's for 2018 that came on July 22nd.

So, ultimately...you have to believe that we're right on the cusp of an announcement.  Maybe?

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Ten Bets for TFF #50 / Neglia's List / Trailers for Challengers and Priscilla

 TEN BETS FOR TFF #50

Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".

Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend.  I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on.  Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.

The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.

Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed.  To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49.  Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

6/10

Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love

7) Cow/Arnold

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Blonde/Dominik

10) The Story of Looking/Cousins

8/10

Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Ineterst/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.

There you go.  Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.

NEGLIA'S LIST

Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees.  Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.

Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):

Telluride Film Festival

2022: Women Talking

2021: Belfast & King Richard

2020: None

2019: Ford v Ferrari

2018: None

2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird

2016: Moonlight

2015: Room

2014: The Imitation Game

2013: 12 Years A Slave

2012: Argo

2011: The Descendants

2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech

2009: Up In The Air

Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.

His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:

Venice Film Festival: 21

Sundance Film Festival: 15

Telluride Film Festival: 15

Cannes Film Festival: 14

Toronto Film Festival: 12

New York Film Festival: 8

AFI Fest: 3

Berlin Film Festival: 1

SXSW: 1

So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance.  However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter).  If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.

Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at an earlier fest:

2022: TAR (Venice)

2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)

2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)

2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)

2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)

2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)

2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)

2015: Spotlight (Venice)

2014: Birdman (Venice)

2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)

2012: Amour (Cannes)

2011: The Artist (Cannes)

2010: Black Swan (Venice)

2009: An Education (Sundance)

So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination.  Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.

But Toronto is a huge player.  Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.

Five each from Sundance and Cannes.  17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto.  The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.

Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto.  Here are those films:

2021: Nomadland

2020: Parasite

2018: The Shape of Water

2017: Moonlight

2016: Spotlight

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2013: Argo

2012: The Artist

2011: The King's Speech

There's a lot more to digest from Matt's post which is linked here.

TRAILERS FOR CHALLENGERS AND PRISCILLA

We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.  

Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair.  Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis.  It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th.  Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.  

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley.  It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.

Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date.  Distribution is being handled by A24.

Again, from YouTube:

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film 

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Checking the Distributors: A24 / More Venetian Thoughts

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: A24

Today continues our parade through film distribution companies that have had the largest presence at Telluride over the last 7-8 years and because of that are generally the most likely to place films into the TFF #50 lineup.  Today's candidate is A24 which, since 2015, has been the third most ubiquitous distrib at TFF with an average of just under hair under 2 films each year chosen to be in the Telluride list:  Here's their rundown of films since 2015:

2015-Room

2016-Moonlight

2017-First Reformed, Lady Bird, Lean on Pete

2019-Uncut Gems, Waves, First Cow

2021-C'mon C'mon, Red Rocket, Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

2022-Aftersun, Close

Prior to 2015 A24 also screened Ginger + Rosa in 2012 and Under the Skin in 2013.

For 2023 and TFF #50 A24 has these films that are the most likely to appear and the chance that actually happens:

The Zone of Interest-50%

Priscilla-40%

Occupied City-30%

Love Lies Bleeding-20%

Tuesday-10%

MORE VENETIAN THOUGHTS

From The Hollywood Reporter this week, another spec piece about films that could play The Lido.  And then, of course, our job is to look at that list and parse what might be scheduled early enough to cross the Atlantic and be in Telluride a day or so later.

From the THR list, here are my guesses as to the films that could follow that scenario:

Poor Things/Lanthimos

Challengers/Gaudagnino

Maestro/Cooper

Saltburn/Fennell

Io Capitano/Garrone

Priscilla/Coppola

The Book of Clarence/Samuels

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

Drive Away Dolls/Coen

The Holdovers/Payne

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

From this list the most likely by far is Alexander Payne's The Holdovers (though I think Nyad is a solid prediction too).  Least Likely are Bradley Cooper's Maestro and Ethan Coen's Drive Away Dolls.

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Checking the Distributors: Netflix / Venetian Thoughts

CHECKING THE DISTRIBUTORS: NETFLIX

One of the methods that I've used over the past several years to "inform" my TFF speculation is to look at the history of films from specific distributors and Telluride.  It's not an exact science but can give insight.

So, without further ado we start with what has become over the last 7-8 years the most screened distributor at the Telluride Film Festival: Netflix.  Netflix has screened 25 films at TFF since first showing up in 2015.  That's an average of 3.6 films/year (I have left out the anomalous Covid year of 2020).

Here's the Netflix track record since 2015:

2015: Beasts of No Nation, Winter on Fire

2016: I Called Him Morgan, The Ivory Game, Into the Inferno

2017: First They Killed My Father, Wormwood

2018: Dovlatov, Girl, Reversing Roe, Roma, The Other Side of the Wind, They'll Love Me When I'm Dead

2019: Inside Bill's Brain, Marriage Story, Tell Me Who I Am, The Two Popes

2020: No announced films

2021: The Hand of God, The Lost Daughter, The Power of the Dog, Procession

2022: Bardo, Lady Chatterley's Lover, Sr., The Wonder

In 2022 it felt like Netflix's slate-both at Telluride and overall- didn't have the same punch as it had in 2018, 2019 or 2021.  

That might change in 2023.  I checked on the early Oscar lines from a variety of sources to get a sense of the heat for some of Netflix's films.

Variety's Clayton Davis has Netflix titles Maestro (d. Bradley Cooper) and May December (d. Todd Haynes) in his current "early" Best Picture predictions.  He also has David Fincher's The Killer in  his "Next in Line" list at #19.

Joey Magidson at Awards Radar has 3 Netflix properties in his Best Picture Top 20:

Maestro at #5

Rustin at #16

May December at #17

Mark Johnson of Good as Gold has 3 Netflix titles in his early Best Picture Top 20:

Maestro at #4

The Killer at #15

Rustin at #16

Gold Derby has Maestro and Rustin on its Top 20 "Incredibly Early" Best Picture Oscar contenders list.

So, with all that in mind, here's where I'd estimate we are regarding titles that are in the Netflix stable and their chances of a Telluride #50 play:

At the top is Todd Haynes' May December.  Chances to play at TFF: 70%.

Then:

Nyad (Chin and Vasarhelyi) 55%

El Conde (Larrain) 50%

In the "maybe but lesser likelihood" category: Leave the World Behind, Pain Hustlers, Shirley, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar and Rustin,

Right now, I'm thinking Maestro and The Killer (if it's even ready) are unlikely for T-ride.  I'd like to be wrong about these.

VENETIAN THOUGHTS

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported over the weekend on the Venice speculation coming from Italy's La Repubblica.

Among the titles that are mentioned that could subsequent to a Venice screening find their way to the San Junas:

Matteo Garrone's Il Capitano

Jeymes Samuels' The Book of Clarence

Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things

Luca Guadagnino's Challengers

Sophia Coppola's Priscilla

Chin and Vasarhelyi's Nyad

Bradley Cooper's Maestro.

From this list I am currently most bullish on Poor Things and Nyad for TFF #50 and think the least likely is  Maestro.

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Oscar #95 Postmortem / Looking Forward

OSCAR #95 POSTMORTEM

When the Oscar's show ended Sunday night I was a bit disappointed in my 18-5 record predicting the Oscar outcome.  That's a success rate of 78.3%.  Respectable and about what I have averaged over the years since I started doing Oscar picks as a part of the aftermath of covering the Telluride Film Festival.  Of the five I missed, the only one that wasn't in last Sunday's post that wasn't a pick or at least a possible spoiler was All Quiet on the Western Front in Production Design.  Curtis and Fraser were both listed as "Spoilers" in their acting categories as were BP: Wakanda Forever and The Whale were for Costumes and Makeup/Hair respectively.  So I felt a little better.

Then Monday morning I took a peek at Gold Derby's Experts chart and felt a lot better.  Turns out that had I been listed among their experts I would have finished second to Perter Travers of ABC TV.  Peter went 19-4.  Two other experts were at 18-5 like me but Gold Derby has a points system that had me ahead of them substantially.  I won't name names but I came out ahead of a lot of the pros and that, I'm a little embarrassed to say, makes me feel pretty, pretty good.

The Gold Derby Experts results chart is linked here.

Of course, to bring me back to Earth, I finished 701 out of nearly 10,861 non-professional users...that's in the top 6.5%.  My points accumulated: 12,919:

So, all-in-all...not a bad record for me in 2023.

ALSO- turns out I made it onto Awards Daily's Big Bad Prediction Chart after I posted final predictions on Sunday morning.  Here's the link to that.

Over the last ten Oscars, here's what the MTFB success rate has been:

2023: 18/23 78.3% (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

2022: 21/23 91.3% (Coda)

2021: 16/23 69.6% (Nomadland)

2020: 19/24 79.2% (Parasite)

2019: 19/24 79.2% (Green Book)

2018: 21/24 87.5% (The Shape of Water)

2017: 15/24 62.5% (Moonlight)

2016: 15/24 62.5% (Spotlight)

2015: 20/24 83.3% (Birdman)

2014: 22/24 91.7% (12 Years a Slave)

That's 186/237 over the decade for a success rate at 78.5%.

Oscar 2023 was a rough year for Telluride films.  TFF films earned 17 nominations but only one took home a trophy and that was Sarah Polley for Best Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking.  Other places where TFF films had a realistic shot but came up short included Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for TAR, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed in Documentary Feature and Le Pupille in Live Action Short.

The 1 for 17 finish marked the lowest TFF Oscar haul since 2009 when TFF films had 16 nominations spread among seven films and none took home an Oscar.  The last time TFF had a one Oscar year was 2001 when No Man's Land won Best Foreign Language Film.

As I have mentioned, you might consider Everything Everywhere All at Once TFF-adjacent due to the fest's feting of Michelle Yeoh as a part of a salute to Sony Pictures Classics 30th Anniversary with a screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  I suspect Yeoh's appearance was, in part, to keep her in the limelight during the fall fest season for EEAAO's and her run to the Oscars.  I know nothing, but a calculation of that sort makes a good deal of sense.

Also in the "TFF adjacent" category was Documentary Feature winner Navalny which reportedly screened at one pf the parks in Telluride the Wednesday night before the fest opened.

LOOKING FORWARD

As we turn our attention away from Oscar season and back to TFF #50 speculation.  We'll be looking for three areas for clues.  Way-too-early Oscar predictions and the Cannes lineup and the post Berlin Film Fest's slate of films.  Cannes and Telluride average a 6-8 film overlap from year to year.  Additionally, early Oscar prognostications can give us insight into what Oscar watchers think will be the most "important" films of the year which usually translates into films that, at least early on, seem like films that many of the major film fests will want to program.

We already know that Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer and Greta Gerwig's Barbie are off the table as they are both announced for a July 21st release.  But despite that, there are a bunch of interesting possibilities on the table.

The first too early Oscar forecast I ran across from a major outlet was from The A.V. Club.  Among the titles of 23 possible Best Picture nominees were seven films that are on my early TFF #50 watch list:

AND from Yorgos Lanthimos

The Color Purple from Blitz Bazawule

The Holdovers from Alexander Payne

The Killer from David Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese

Next Goal Wins from Taika Waititi

Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos

Here's the link to the A.V. Club's full list.

Meanwhile, for a good listing of potential Cannes selections, take a look at Jordan Ruimy's evolving list at World of Reel which currently includes a number of intriguing possible overlapping films between Cannes and T-ride including from the list above: Flower Moon and Poor Things.

Others that seem at least possible for TFF #50:

May/December-Todd Haynes

Monster -Hirokazu Kore-eda

Priscilla-Sofia Coppola

The Royal Hotel-Kitty Green

And finally from Berlin, Gold Derby compiled as list of 20 films and among those are some titles that are worth noting as possible TFF choices:

She Came to Me-Rebecca Miller

The Survival of Kindness-Rolf de Heer

Ingeborg Bachmann-Journey Into the Desert-Margerethe Von Trotta

Afire-Christian Petzold

Here's the complete list of 20 Berlin films from Gold Derby.

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