Bikeriders Riding into The 'Ride / And Maybe... / The Buzzing / Late Breaking from London

BIKERIDERS RIDING INTO THE 'RIDE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel reported on Friday that he has confirmed the buzz we'd been hearing the last couple of weeks that Jeff Nichols' The Bikeriders will debut at Telluride.  The film stars Tom Hardy, Austin Butler, Boyd Holbrook, Michael Shannon and Jodie Comer.

IMDb's synopsis goes like this:

"It follows the rise of a Midwestern motorcycle club through the lives of its members."

Nichols previous films include Loving, Midnight Special, Take Shelter and Mud.

For me, its another really great entry into the TFF #50 lineup...which, if what we think is going to Telluride shows at The SHOW, is rocking.

AND MAYBE...

In recent posts I've been mentioning the possibility of Angelina Jolie bringing her latest film-Without Blood-to TFF #50.  I'm still not quite all the way to the point where I'm predicting if for the lineup yet but I am getting closer.  There's a good deal of buzz that the Jolie follow-up to her 2017 First They Killed My Father which also played Telluride.  That previous appearance is one of the reasons that I think might make Without Blood a real possibility for TFF #50.  

THE BUZZING

We're getting to the time of the year where MTFB starts to pop up in other places.  This past week MTFB was referenced by Sasha Stone at Awards Daily in her Aug. 4th post about Oscar and the potential effects of the dual writers' and actors' strike.

Speaking of buzz, on the Awards Radar podcast this week Joey Magidson and his guests Mark Johnson and Ryan McQuade talked a good deal about Telluride and probably the most exciting speculation is about Killers of the Flower Moon and a possible tribute to Martin Scorsese.  They feel that's more not less likely.  I had been hearing a little of that speculation within the last week to ten days.  If you listen to the podcast that discussion occurs at 1:13:58.

If you've read this space before, you know that Flowers is my big hope for the year whether it plays T-ride or not and I have been very clear that I have not believed that it would.  Many of you know that I did a day of background on the film which makes me even more keen to actually see it as soon as possible.

I hate to get all worked up but...there is a little smoke...

On the other hand, another film that's high on my list to see is David Fincher's The Killer starring Michael Fassbender as a professional assassin who comes to a question what his choices have been.  

Like Flower Moon, I have thought The Killer to be an unlikely film for TFF #50 inclusion and now World of Reel suggests that outcome is probable.  WOR chief Jordan Ruimy writing this weekend:

"...not much else is known about Fincher’s upcoming 118-minute film. That’ll change when it premieres in September at the Venice Film Festival. So far, no other festivals have announced it, and I’m hearing it’s not going to Telluride or Toronto. Maybe NYFF is an option."

LATE BREAKING FROM LONDON

First image of Emerald Fennell's Saltburn via Screen Daily

Overnight the BFI London Film Festival announced that its opening night film will be Emerald Fennell's Saltburn.  The announcement added further evidence that the film will be bowing initially at Telluride.  Saltburn is listed by LFF as its International Premiere which adds to the comments from Venice Film Fest head Alberto Barbera from last week that Saltburn will play Telluride.  Additionally we can deduce from its International Premiere status that it will skip Toronto.

Here's a report of the announcement with further details from Screen Daily.

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While We're Waiting... / While We're Waiting Part Two / I've Been Hearing...Nichols? Jolie?

 WHILE WE'RE WAITING...

Here's a quick rundown of films playing the Venice fest that might be possible candidates to make the trans-Atlantic journey to the San Juans.

Competition category:

Maestro/B. Cooper

The Killer/D. Fincher

The Captain/M. Garrone

Poor Things/Y. Lanthimos

El Conde/P. Larrain

The most serious possibilities are El Conde and Poor Things.   Maestro and The Killer are the least likely.  Also Searchlight/Disney's choice to move Poor Things' release to Dec. 8th may indicate that the Yorgos Lanthimos film may just play Venice.

Out of Competition category:

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/W. Anderson

Daaaaaali!/Q. Dupieux

The Caine Mutiny Court Martial/W. Friedkin

Honestly my feeling for each of these is that they're weak candidates.  Also, Caine Mutiny's inclusion is more of a "wish-it-into existence" inclusion rather than based on any rational analysis.

Orrizzonti Extra category:

Day of the Fight/J. Huston

Mostly because I am intrigued by Jack Huston's directing debut.

WHILE WE'RE WAITING PART TWO...

World of Reel posted an updating list on Wednesday last week of possible festival films that have yet to be announced for any fest.  Here that is:

“The Bikeriders” (Jeff Nichols)

“Love Lies Bleeding” (Rose Glass)

“The Actor” (Duke Johnson)

“Dream Scenario” (Kristoffer Borgli)

“Rebel Ridge” (Jeremy Saulnier)

“MaXXXine” (Ti West)

“Civil War” (Alex Garland)

“Strangers” (Andrew Haigh)

“L’Empire” (Bruno Dumont)

“Wizards” (David Michod)

“NightBitch” (Marielle Heller)

“Limonov” (Kirill Serebrennikov)

“Havoc” (Gareth Evans)

“I Saw the TV Glow” (Jane Schoenbrun)

“Shirley” (John Ridley)

“Silent Night” (John Woo)

“Without Blood” (Angelina Jolie)

“Foe” (Garth Davis)

“Holland, Michigan” (Mimi Cave)

“Leave the World Behind” (Sam Esmail)

ADDITIONS:

“Apartment 7A“ (Natalie Erika James)

“Duchess” (Neil Marshall)

“Freaky Tales” (Anna Boden, Ryan Fleck)

“Horizon: An American Saga” (Kevin Costner)

“The Marsh King’s Daughter” (Neil Burger)

“Monkey Man” (Dev Patel)

“Pussy Island” (Zoë Kravitz)

“Road House” (Doug Liman)

“Spaceman” (Johan Renck)

“Unfrosted: The Pop-Tart Story” (Jerry Seinfeld)

Best TFF #50 possibilities here:

Strangers/Haigh

Shirley/Ridley

The Bikeriders/Nichols (see below)

Without Blood/Jolie (see below)

The Actor/Johnson

Love Lies Bleeding/Glass

Nightbitch/Heller

I'VE BEEN HEARING...NICHOLS? JOLIE?

(photo compilation via People)

Lots of buzz that Jeff Nichols The Bikeriders might be a serious candidate for a Telluride slot.  Granted it's a lot of Twitter or X or Elon's Crazy Playhouse...but the buzz there is a real.

Similarly, a late-breaking title that might be a T-ride potential is Angelina Jolie's Without Blood.  Jolie was in Telluride in 2017 with her First They Killed My Father.

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Ten Bets #3 for TFF #50 / New Trailer for Killers of the Flower Moon / Fincher's The Killer and Venice? / 800,000

 TEN BETS #3 FOR TFF #50

Here's the third iteration of my "Ten Bets" for TFF #50.  As I post this morning we are just a couple of weeks away from the clarity that announcements from the Toronto International Film Festival can provide.  TIFF announces its first wave of Galas and Special Presentations along with their revealing "premiere status" on that day.  

TIFF announcement days are always exhilarating and heart breaking.  Exhilarating because it's often the first hard evidence of a film's disposition vis-a-vis Telluride and heartbreaking because inevitably films that I want to play Telluride are discovered on that day as World Premieres for TIFF and thus will not make the trip to southwest Colorado.

So that's coming on July 19th.  I'll attempt a little social media coverage on the 19th as information becomes available and then have a full on report on my regular posting day on July 20th.

All that said to get to this week's Ten Bets.

As a reminder, here are last week's Ten Bets:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Strangers/Haigh

5) Poor Things/Lanthimos

6) Monster/Kore-eda

7) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

8) El Conde/Larrain

9) Saltburn/Fennell

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

And here's the update, the third Ten Bets for TFF #50:

1) May December/Haynes

2) Poor Things/Lanthimos

3) Strangers/Haigh

4) The Holdovers/Payne

5) Monster/Kore-eda

6) Saltburn/Fennell

7) Nyad/ Chin and Vasarhelyi

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) El Conde/Larrain

10) The Teachers' Lounge/Catak

Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki, The End/Oppenheimer, The Pot-au-Feu/Hung,  Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns, Priscilla/Coppola and Shirley/Ridley.

NEW TRAILER FOR KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON

Apple dropped a new trailer for my most anticipated film for 2023, Martin Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon.  The film is set for limited release on Oct. 6th and then opens wide on Oct. 20th. 

My guess, at this point is that Killers maybe plays the New York Film Festival prior to its release and bypasses both Telluride and Toronto.  I hope my assessment is way off.

As many know, I did a day of background work on the film. I can tell you that I'm not in either trailer.  Here's the new one:

 

FINCHER'S THE KILLER AND VENICE?

Michael Fassbender on the set of The Killer (via IMDb)

By and large I have discounted any possibility that David Fincher would return to Telluride this year with The Killer starring Michael Fassbender.  Up to now I have surmised that the film produced in part by Paramount and Plan B and distributed by Netflix likely wouldn't play any festival though its planned Nov. 10th release date would allow it to.

However, Jordan Ruimy's World of Reel reported on Sunday (7/2) that the door might still be open for the film to screen at Venice:

"On Friday, I was rather stunned by an Italian source telling me that Netflix is now thinking of bringing David Fincher’s “The Killer” to Venice. 

This source told me, “negotiations are underway, Barbera did see it and he wants it in competition. I’m not sure if he will be able to get it as the odds are 50/50 right now since Netflix would rather premiere it closer to the November release.”

Now, if the door is open for Venice, could it also be open for the jump to Telluride?  Fincher was the recipient of a Telluride tribute back in 2008 where Zodiac was screened in its entirety and scenes from The Curious Case of Benjamin Button were screened so he's been in the San Juans before.

Personally I'm still very skeptical that The Killer lands in Colorado and frankly I tend to buy the conventional wisdom that if The Killer plays a fest at all it will probably be New York.

But I'd like to be wrong.

800,000

Just passed another milestone in the history of MTFB last night as total views for the blog went beyond the 800,000 mark.  That means that each post of the 2,135 I have published since August 8th, 2008 has averaged 347.7 views.

Thanks for reading!

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Venice Thoughts / The Killer Not Playing? / Photos: May/December and The Zone of Interest / Trailer for Squaring the Circle / Assessing the 60's

VENICE THOUGHTS

News this week that writer/director Damien Chazelle (whose La La Land and First Man both played TFF) has been named the Jury President for the Venice Film Festival's Golden Lion competition.  As a part of reporting that story Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel included a compilation of films he says have a real shot at making the Venice lineup.  TFF watchers take note as the Venice/Telluride connection is historically almost, but not quite, as pronounced as the Cannes/T-ride connection.

Over the past ten years Venice and Telluride have, on average, shared 6-7 films per year.  As a consequence, paying attention to Venice titles and also when they get scheduled for their initial screening in Italy can often give us clues as to what may play both places.  Thus, the interest in Ruimy's ruminations.  He lists 25+ films.  Here's my take on the Telluride prospects for some of them if Ruimy is correct.

Most Likely: The Holdovers (Payne)

Decent Chance: Strangers (Haight), Poor Things (Lanthimos), The Royal Hotel (Green), El Condo (Larrain)

Could Be: Priscilla (Coppola), Challengers (Guadagnino), Saltburn (Fennell), The Bikeriders (Nichols)

Wishes: Maestro (Cooper)

Ruimy's complete list is here.

THE KILLER NOT PLAYING?

Photo via IMDb

One of my "most hoped for" titles for TFF #50 is David Fincher's The Killer starring Michael Fassbender but World of Reel reported this week that the buzz is that it may skip fall fests altogether.    In his latest update about the film, WOR 's Jordan Ruimy writes:

"Last month, I posted a reaction to Fincher’s upcoming film. It was very positive. From what I understood, Netflix hadn’t made a decision on whether or not this would go to festivals such as Venice and Telluride, but they’re leaning towards skipping them."

Now, I have always thought that The Killer's TFF chances were slim but this latest dash of cold water seems to make it even more unlikely.  I guess it's worth noting that the tidbit from WOR is not definitive as the phrase is "leaning towards skipping'...but...well...

Ruimy's post re: The Killer is linked here.

PHOTOS

First looks at:

MAY/DECEMBER (Haynes)

THE ZONE OF INTEREST (Glazer)

From the Gazeta Krakowska:

TRAILER FOR SQUARING THE CIRCLE

We have a trailer for Anton Corbijn's Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) that played at TFF #49:

ASSESSING THE 60'S

Speaking of World of Reel, Jordan has asked me to submit a ballot for his upcoming post about the greatest films of the 1960's.  I think that is likely to be posted this week sometime.  Previously Ruimy has posted lists for the 1970's, 80's, 90's, 00's and the 2010's.  I've been fortunate enough to have been included in all but the 80's list.

I started with a list of around 20 films and then culled it down to the ten that Ruimy requested.  Here's what I voted for in alphabetical order:

2001: A Space Odyssey

The Apartment 

Cool Hand Luke

Dr. Strangelove

The Graduate

The Hustler 

Lawrence of Arabia

Midnight Cowboy 

To Kill a Mockingbird

They Shoot Horses Don't They

We'll see where they end up later this week.  My guess is that 2001 comes in at the top spot.

Here's Jordan's last post teasing the 1960's poll which includes links to all of the previous decades' polls.

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Let's Talk Big Picture: Part Two / THR's Best 50 Movies of the 21st Century and Telluride / One More Guess at Cannes

 LET'S TALK BIG PICTURE: PART TWO

In this second look at where we are regarding possible TFF #50 players I've collected a list of all of the titles that I have posted as possibilities based upon ten different articles from over the past few months.  The articles focus on one of four areas: "Most Anticipated Films" for 2023, "Early Oscar Predictions", "Cannes Speculation" and "Venice Speculation".

The ten articles/posts are:

The Playlist's Most Anticipated

The Film Stage's Most Anticipated

Variety's Early Oscar Predictions

Next Best Picture's Early Oscar Predictions

A.V. Club's Early Oscar Predictions

Ioncinema's Cannes Spec

Indiewire's Cannes Spec

Screen Daily's Cannes Spec

World of Reel's Cannes Spec

World of Reel's Venice Spec

And from all that, here are 57 films that could play Telluride:

The Actor/Johnson

AND*/Lanthimos

The Bastard/Arcel

Blitz*/McQueen

The Book of Clarence/Samuel

The Book of Solutions*/Gondry

Butterfly Jam/Balagov

The Captain (Io Capitano)*/Garrone

Caste/DuVernay

Challengers/Guadagnino

Cobweb/Bodin

The Color Purple*/Bazawule

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

Die My Love/Ramsay

El Conde/Larrian

Emilia Perez/Audiard

The End/Oppenheimer

Fallen Leaves*/Kaurismaki

Fingernails/Nikou

Flint Strong/Morrison

Foe/Davis

Freud's Last Session/Brown

The Holdovers*/Payne

How Do You Live?*/Miyazaki

The Island/Pawlikowski

The Killer*+/Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon*+/Scorsese

La Chimera/Rohrwacher

Lee/Kuras

A Little Prayer/MacLachlan

Longlegs/Perkins

Love Lies Bleeding/Glass

Maestro*+/Cooper

May/December*/Haynes

Monster*/Kore-eda

Mother's' Instinct/Delhomme

My Crime (The Crime Is Mine)/Ozon

Napoleon/Scott

The New Boy/Thornton

Next Goal Wins*/Waititi

Nightbitch/Heller

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

The Old Oak/Loach

Orwell/Peck

Poor Things*/Lanthimos

Priscilla*/Coppola

The Royal Hotel*/Green

Rustin*/Wolfe

Saltburn/Fennell

Shirley/Ridley

Strangers*/Haigh

Tokyo Toilet/Wenders

Untitled Bob Marley Biopic/Green

Untitled Sean Baker Film/Baker

The Way of the Wind/Malick

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Anderson

The Zone of Interest*/Glazer

*Film that I have included on three or more previous lists

+Film that's more a wish than a prediction

My first Ten Bets are coming in ten weeks (unless I get restless and pop them early).

THR'S BEST 50 MOVIES OF THE 21ST CENTURY

The Hollywood Reporter's gaggle of critics published their list of the 50 best films of the 2000's late last week and, to no one's surprise...there was some disagreement.  I, for one, was mystified that Paul Thomas Anderson's There will Be Blood merited only an honorable mention and The Master was nowhere to be found.  Also, the Coen Brothers' No Country for Old Men...not a peep.  Still, looking at the 50 films plus the honorable mention, TFF has been a launching pad for a bunch of THR's choices.

Among honorable mentions from TFF: Cache, L'Enfant, Under the Skin and Waltz with Bashir.

TFF films in the list of 50:

47-Bright Star

44-Things to Come

35-The Favourite

33-Portrait of a Lady on Fire

31-Manchester by the Sea

21-Parasite

20-Far from Heaven

18-Shoplifters

17-Talk to Her

15-The Power of the Dog

12-Moonlight

9-4 Months, Three Weeks and Two Days

7-Brokeback Mountain

6-Spirited Away

5-Mulholland Drive

4-Zodiac

2-Inside Llewyn Davis

1-Yi Yi

The complete post is linked here.

ONE MORE GUESS AT CANNES

Cineuropa has a post up as of last Thursday with an extensive list of potential titles at Cannes.  Many of  what not seem to be the usual suspects are there which also provides many of the same titles that I am eyeballing as possible Cannes/Telluride crossover films.  Among them:

Monster/Kore-eda

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Poor Things/Lanthimos

The Holdovers/Payne

May/December/Haynes

The New Boy/Thornton

The Bikeriders/Nichols

The Captain/Garrone

Daaaaaali!/Dupieux

Ricardo et la Peinture/Schroeder

The complete and extensive set of guesses is linked here.

Will have actual Cannes titles for my next post on April 13th.

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Let's Talk Big Picture: Part One / Napoleon?

LET'S TALK BIG PICTURE: PART ONE

Every year I have been writing this thing devoted to the Telluride Film Festival we reach a new starting point for serious speculation about what might play beginning in December. 

I currently have two big lists that I'm working from.  The first is from a file I constantly add to called "Future Telluride".  I work from a number of sources anything that seems to indicate a film project that might tempt programmers from The SHOW.  Guidelines for making the list include directors with a Telluride title on their credits, distributors with same and general intuition.

I clean up that list from time to time by culling film projects that debut without playing Telluride and those that do.  I still have a couple of potential projects in the list from as far back as 2014 (It's a Steve McQueen project that was announced in November of that year).

That's the Big Picture I'll be sharing today.

Big Picture Part Two will come on Monday.

So, here's what's been in the "Future Telluride" file of films that I have been keeping an eye on chronologically listed beginning with films listed first in 2018:

2018

The Zone of Interest/Glazer

Killers of the Flower Moon/Scorsese

2019

Occupied City/McQueen

Flint Strong/Morrison

Next Goal Wins/Waititi

Maestro/Cooper

The Way of the Wind or The Last Planet/Malick

2020

Nightbitch

2021

The Killer/Fincher

Tuesday/Oniunas-Pusic

Poor Things/Lanthimos

Foe/Davis

May/December/Haynes

Shirley/Ridley

2022

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Anderson

Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

The New Boy/Thonton

Untitled Ethan Coen Film/Coen

The Royal Hotel/Green

Mother's Instinct/Delhomme

The Book of Solutions/Gondry

The Bastard/Arcel

Blitz/McQueen

Fallen Leaves/Kaurismaki

Strangers/Haigh

Strange Way of Life/Almodovar

The Bikeriders/Nichols

The Holdovers/Payne

The End We Start From/Belo

AND/Lanthimos

Freud's Last Session/Brown

Challengers/Guadagnino

Monster/Kore-eda

2023

The American Buffalo/Burns

The Miracle Club/O'Sullivan

There you have 34 potential TFF #50 selections.

Monday's list has nearly 60 possible titles.  Many of the above are on that list as well.

NAPOLEON?

Still from Napoleon via Apple

Ridley Scott's Napoleon has a release date.  Apple announced this week that the film will be released theatrically on Nov. 22nd.  That puts it in position to play Telluride, Venice, Toronto, New York and/or London in any combination.  Or other fests as well.

I think its chances for Telluride, at least at the moment, are smallish.  over the years there have been a number of Scott films that I thought had some potential to play Telluride including: The Counselor, The Martian, All the Money in the World and The Last Duel.  Of course, none of those happened.

But...you never know...

Here's Variety on the announced release date.

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750,000 / 50 for Cannes / Meanwhile...Venice

750,000

I kind of teased this a little bit in my last post.  MTFB passed its 750,000 view over the weekend.  Three quarters of a million views!  That makes my head explode just a little bit. 

MTFB's first appeared on August 8th 2008 (8/8/08).  Today marks the 2115th post since I started this thing meaning that each post has averaged 355ish views.  The single most viewed post was Jan. 18, 2018.  That post focused on precursors that were upcoming for the 90th Oscar ceremony and a Variety piece featuring Greta Gerwig and Saorise Ronan talking about Lady Bird.

Here's the very post.

Here's the most viewed post.

50 FOR CANNES

Eric Kohn and the gang at Indiewire has put together a list of 50 films that the billas films they'd "like to see" at Cannes in May.  The heading on the email link for the story from Twitter calls them predictions though.  

As I have said many times, the Cannes/Telluride connection is very real.  Last year the Cannes/Telluride crossover was nine films by my count:

Armageddon Time

Broker

Close

Godland 

Holy Spider

One Fine Morning

Tori and Lokita

Le Pupille

Aftersun

Last year from Indiewire's 50 film wish list I culled 15 "possible" crossover films and from that list, seven actually made the trip: Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider, One Fine Morning, Tori and Lokita and Women Talking.

Bones and All was the only film on last year's Indiewire list that made the Telluride lineup (and from Venice not Cannes) that I didn't have in the 2022 version of this post.

The Indiewire post starts with the caveat that everyone is assuming that Killers of the Flower Moon will screen out of competition at Cannes as well as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.  I'm already frequently on record that I'm making blood sacrifices in my backyard to get Killers to TFF but that I think the chances are slim.  Not impossible...but slim.  Of course Indy 5 releases on June 30th.

They also mention Pedro Almodovar's short film Strange Way of Life which is tipped to be the opening night film.  I actually think there is a reasonable possibility that it does make the TFF #50 lineup.

That said...here are what I think are the best shots at Cannes-then-Telluride films for the 50th edition of The SHOW from the Indieiwire list:

The Book of Solutions/Michel Gondry

Dead Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

La Chimera/Alice Rohrwacher

Io Capitano/Matteo Garrone

Monster/Hirokazu Kore-eda

The New Boy/Warwick Thornton

May/December/Todd Haynes

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Royal Hotel/Kitty Green

Tokyo Toilet/Wim Wenders

The Zone of Interest/Jonathan Glazer

Here's the complete Indiewire story.

MEANWHILE...VENICE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a Venice spec piece on Saturday and it has some interesting ideas.  Venice and Cannes have nearly the same level of crossover to Telluride with Venice averaging (over the last decade) 7.3 films making the Venice/Telluride double dip.

Last year there were 10 films that accomplished the double play:

Bardo

Bobi Wine

Bones and All

A Compassionate Spy

Desperate Souls: Midnight Cowboy...

Fragments of Paradise

Living

TAR

March on Rome

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

So what does Jordan have that could (or that I want to) make the Venice/Telluride connection?

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

AND/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Killer/David Fincher

Blitz/Steve McQueen

How Do You Live?/Hayao Myazaki

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Challengers/Luca Guadagnino

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Ruimy also mentions a couple of other films that could be in the mix for Venice first and then T-ride: Sofia Coppola's Priscilla and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.

Here's Jordan's full post.

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Oscar #95 Postmortem / Looking Forward

OSCAR #95 POSTMORTEM

When the Oscar's show ended Sunday night I was a bit disappointed in my 18-5 record predicting the Oscar outcome.  That's a success rate of 78.3%.  Respectable and about what I have averaged over the years since I started doing Oscar picks as a part of the aftermath of covering the Telluride Film Festival.  Of the five I missed, the only one that wasn't in last Sunday's post that wasn't a pick or at least a possible spoiler was All Quiet on the Western Front in Production Design.  Curtis and Fraser were both listed as "Spoilers" in their acting categories as were BP: Wakanda Forever and The Whale were for Costumes and Makeup/Hair respectively.  So I felt a little better.

Then Monday morning I took a peek at Gold Derby's Experts chart and felt a lot better.  Turns out that had I been listed among their experts I would have finished second to Perter Travers of ABC TV.  Peter went 19-4.  Two other experts were at 18-5 like me but Gold Derby has a points system that had me ahead of them substantially.  I won't name names but I came out ahead of a lot of the pros and that, I'm a little embarrassed to say, makes me feel pretty, pretty good.

The Gold Derby Experts results chart is linked here.

Of course, to bring me back to Earth, I finished 701 out of nearly 10,861 non-professional users...that's in the top 6.5%.  My points accumulated: 12,919:

So, all-in-all...not a bad record for me in 2023.

ALSO- turns out I made it onto Awards Daily's Big Bad Prediction Chart after I posted final predictions on Sunday morning.  Here's the link to that.

Over the last ten Oscars, here's what the MTFB success rate has been:

2023: 18/23 78.3% (Everything Everywhere All at Once)

2022: 21/23 91.3% (Coda)

2021: 16/23 69.6% (Nomadland)

2020: 19/24 79.2% (Parasite)

2019: 19/24 79.2% (Green Book)

2018: 21/24 87.5% (The Shape of Water)

2017: 15/24 62.5% (Moonlight)

2016: 15/24 62.5% (Spotlight)

2015: 20/24 83.3% (Birdman)

2014: 22/24 91.7% (12 Years a Slave)

That's 186/237 over the decade for a success rate at 78.5%.

Oscar 2023 was a rough year for Telluride films.  TFF films earned 17 nominations but only one took home a trophy and that was Sarah Polley for Best Adapted Screenplay for Women Talking.  Other places where TFF films had a realistic shot but came up short included Cate Blanchett for Best Actress for TAR, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed in Documentary Feature and Le Pupille in Live Action Short.

The 1 for 17 finish marked the lowest TFF Oscar haul since 2009 when TFF films had 16 nominations spread among seven films and none took home an Oscar.  The last time TFF had a one Oscar year was 2001 when No Man's Land won Best Foreign Language Film.

As I have mentioned, you might consider Everything Everywhere All at Once TFF-adjacent due to the fest's feting of Michelle Yeoh as a part of a salute to Sony Pictures Classics 30th Anniversary with a screening of Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon.  I suspect Yeoh's appearance was, in part, to keep her in the limelight during the fall fest season for EEAAO's and her run to the Oscars.  I know nothing, but a calculation of that sort makes a good deal of sense.

Also in the "TFF adjacent" category was Documentary Feature winner Navalny which reportedly screened at one pf the parks in Telluride the Wednesday night before the fest opened.

LOOKING FORWARD

As we turn our attention away from Oscar season and back to TFF #50 speculation.  We'll be looking for three areas for clues.  Way-too-early Oscar predictions and the Cannes lineup and the post Berlin Film Fest's slate of films.  Cannes and Telluride average a 6-8 film overlap from year to year.  Additionally, early Oscar prognostications can give us insight into what Oscar watchers think will be the most "important" films of the year which usually translates into films that, at least early on, seem like films that many of the major film fests will want to program.

We already know that Christopher Nolan's Oppenheimer and Greta Gerwig's Barbie are off the table as they are both announced for a July 21st release.  But despite that, there are a bunch of interesting possibilities on the table.

The first too early Oscar forecast I ran across from a major outlet was from The A.V. Club.  Among the titles of 23 possible Best Picture nominees were seven films that are on my early TFF #50 watch list:

AND from Yorgos Lanthimos

The Color Purple from Blitz Bazawule

The Holdovers from Alexander Payne

The Killer from David Fincher

Killers of the Flower Moon from Martin Scorsese

Next Goal Wins from Taika Waititi

Poor Things from Yorgos Lanthimos

Here's the link to the A.V. Club's full list.

Meanwhile, for a good listing of potential Cannes selections, take a look at Jordan Ruimy's evolving list at World of Reel which currently includes a number of intriguing possible overlapping films between Cannes and T-ride including from the list above: Flower Moon and Poor Things.

Others that seem at least possible for TFF #50:

May/December-Todd Haynes

Monster -Hirokazu Kore-eda

Priscilla-Sofia Coppola

The Royal Hotel-Kitty Green

And finally from Berlin, Gold Derby compiled as list of 20 films and among those are some titles that are worth noting as possible TFF choices:

She Came to Me-Rebecca Miller

The Survival of Kindness-Rolf de Heer

Ingeborg Bachmann-Journey Into the Desert-Margerethe Von Trotta

Afire-Christian Petzold

Here's the complete list of 20 Berlin films from Gold Derby.

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MTFB Oscar Update: First Oscar Winner Predictions Part Three / The Film Stage's 100 Most Anticipated

MTFB OSCAR UPDATE: OSCAR WINNER PREDICTIONS PART THREE

I'm continuing my first attempts at predicting what will win Oscars on the night of March 12th.  Today I'm adding these categories to the 12 I have previously predicted in the last two posts:  International Feature, Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, Production Design, Costume Design and Makeup/Hair.  Films are ranked in order of likelihood to win. I have highlighted TFF nominees in Bold.

INETRNATIONAL FEATURE

1) All Quiet on the Western Front

2) Argentina 1985

3) Close

4) EO

5) The Quiet Girl

ANIMANTED FEATURE

1) GDT's Pinocchio

2) Marcel the Shell with Shoes On

3) Puss in Boots: The Last Wish

4) Turning Red

5) The Sea Beast

DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

1) All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

2) All That Breathes

3) Navalny

4) Fire of Love

5) The House of Splinters

PRODUCTION DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Babylon

3) Avatar: The Way of Water

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) The Fabelmans

COSTUME DESIGN

1) Elvis

2) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

3) Babylon

4) Everything Everywhere All at Once

5) Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris

MAKEUP/HAIR

1) Elvis

2) The Whale

3) The Batman

4) All Quiet on the Western Front

5) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Through 18 predicted categories here's the rundown of what Oscar night looks like if I'm 100% accurate:

Everything Everywhere wins three Oscars for Best Picture,  Ke Huy Quan/Supporting Actor and Original Screenplay.

Elvis with four: Cinematography, Production Design, Costumes and Makeup/Hair.

The Fabelmans with one: Steven Spielberg/Best Direction.

TAR with one: Cate Blanchett/Lead Actress.

The Whale with one: Brendan Fraser/Lead Actor.

Black Panther: Wakanda Forever with one: Angela Bassett/Supporting Actress.

Women Talking with one: Adapted Screenplay.

Babylon with one: Original Score.

RRR with one: Original Song.

Top Gun: Maverick with one: Editing.

All Quiet on the Western Front with one: International Feature

Guillermo Del Toro's Pinocchio with one: Animated Feature.

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed with one: Documentary Feature

Only two more feature categories remain to be initially predicted: Sound and Visual Effects.  Those along with the three shorts categories will be predicted in Thursday's post.

Couple of notes here.  

Everything Everywhere could easily add three more Oscars to its haul: Direction, Lead Actress and Editing.

Categories that seem most "locked" at the moment are Supporting Actor: Quan, Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR, International Feature: All Quiet...

Categories that seem to be the most contentious: Picture, Direction (Spielberg and The Daniels), Actress (Blanchett and Yeoh), Actor (Fraser and Butler with Farrell also possible), Original Screenplay (Everything Everywhere and Banshees), Documentary (literally any of them except House of Splinters),Cinematography (Again, any of the five except for Bardo), Editing (TG: Maverick and Everything Everywhere) and Makeup/Hair (Elvis and The Whale).

THE FILM STAGE'S 100 MOST ANTICIPATED AND TFF

Last month The Film Stage posted the 100 films that it have the most anticipation for in 2023.  I kind of spaced that out as I was focused on Oscar season.  Nevertheless, a month later, I have finally run through their list for possible players for TFF #50.

Last year, six films that I highlighted from The Film Stage list actually made it to TFF #49:

The Wonder

Bones and All

Broker

One Fine Morning

Women Talking 

TAR

Several films were on the 2022 list and reappear this year as they weren't released in 2022 including:

Maestro, The Holdovers, Poor Things, The Killer, Zone of Interest and Killers of the Flower Moon.

Here are maybe the best possibilities from their 2023 list:

100) El Conde

98) My Crime

93) The Royal Hotel

81) Emilia Perez

77) Butterfly Jam

72) Monster

60) Poor Things

59) AND

57) Nightbitch

48) Strangers

40) The Holdovers

38) The Island

36) Maestro

20) Fallen Leaves

19) Stone Mattress

18) Die My Love

16) The Killer

15) The End

13) The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar

12) Priscilla

8) Zone of Interest

6) May/December

3) The Way of the Wind

2) Killers of the Flower Moon

1) How Do You Live?

The complete two part article is linked here.

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Trailer for Hirokazu Kore-eda's Broker / Nathaniel Rogers April Foolish Oscar Predix and TFF #49

TRAILER FOR HIROKAZU KORE-EDA'S TRAILER

Playing Cannes in a few weeks is the latest film from Hirokazu Kore-eda.  Broker is described my IMDb as:

"Boxes that are left out for people to anonymously drop off their unwanted babies."

Seriously...that's what IMDb actually says.  I have seen the film titled "Baby Broker" which gives, perhaps, a little more insight into the film.

Kore-eda played TFF in 2018 with Shoplifters.  Now, with his latest film playing Cannes and competing for the Palme d'Or, we could see his return to Telluride.

Here's the recently released trailer ahead of its screening at Cannes:

Additionally, news about the film and trailer are linked here from The Film Stage.

NATHANIEL ROGERS APRIL FOOLISH PREDIX AND TFF #49

Nathaniel Rogers who runs The Film Experience Blog has up his initial 2022-23 Best Picture Oscar contenders and here's what films are on it (and "in contention") that could make noise at TFF #49:

Killers of the Flower Moon

The Son

White Noise

Babylon

Poor Things

Armageddon Time

Empire of Light

Rustin

The Killer

Women Talking

And among the films listed also are:

Red, White and Water

Showing Up

The Stars at Noon

The Whale

Cassandro

Golda

Crimes of the Future

Tar

Blonde

Shirley

The Wonder

Pinocchio

Chevalier

Next Goal Wins

Carmen

Asteroid City

Bardo

Rogers' complete Best Picture take is liked here.

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