Obsessing about the Telluride Film Festival and the film awards season since 2008!
"The best blog out there for predicting what will be going to Telluride."-Matt Neglia, Next Best Picture
"The Nostradamus of Telluride"
-Tim Appelo, Movies for Grownups
"But it's our job." - Anne Thompson, Indiewire
We have a couple of trailers that appeared in the last week for documentaries that screened at Telluride a few weeks back. First, here's a look at Paul D. Preciado's Orlando, My Political Biography from YouTube:
The film's IMDb description:
"Academic virtuoso turned filmmaker Paul B. Preciado's Berlin Film Festival award-winning doc tells his and others' stories of transition through unique reenactments and visual interpretations of Virginia Woolf's Orlando: A Biography."
The film doesn't have a release date set yet for here in the U.S. but has screened since TFF at NYFF and The Hamptons International Film fest. It is also slated to screen at The AFI Fest.
Also appearing last week was a trailer for Nick Hooker's AKA Mr. Chow. The HBO film explores the life and career of restaurateur Michael Chow. The film is set for releases on MAX on Oct,]. 22nd. Here's a look at the trailer from YouTube:
INTERVIEWS FROM NEW YORK AND LONDON
As film festival season has moved on from Telluride we still get interviews from TFF players as their films continue to screen at other festivals.
As I have been doing since 2012, I asked a panel of 18 industry journalists, bloggers and professionals to rate the films they saw at TFF #50.
A couple of notes by way of explanation. The Pros were asked to rate the films they saw on a scale of 1-5 with 1 being not-so-very-good and 5 being "fantastic". Additionally, a film had to be rated by more than half of this year's panel of pros to make the list.
I am, as always, indebted to all of the industry professionals who took time from their crazy busy schedules to provide me their feedback. I can't adequately express my appreciation.
Here's this year's panel:
Erik Anderson/Awards Watch
J. Don Birnam-Jorge T/SplashReport.com
Clayton Davis/Variety
Marshall Flores/Awards Daily
Mark Johnson/Awards Daily and Good as Gold
Dave Karger/Turner Classic Movies
Joey Magidson/Awards Radar
Ryan McQuade/Awards Watch
Scott Menzel/We Live Entertainment
Clarence Moye/Awards Daily
Matt Neglia/Next Best Picture
Christopher Schiller/ScriptMag.com
Sasha Stone/Awards Daily
Anne Thompson/Indiewire
Chris Willman/Variety
Anonymous
Past toppers for each Pro Poll and their average rating have been:
2012: The Central Park Five (4.7)
2013: 12 Years a Slave (4.7)
2014: Birdman (4.72)
2015: Son of Saul (4.44)
2016: Moonlight (4.82)
2017: The Shape of Water (4.5)
2018: Roma (4.73)
2019: Parasite (4.75)
2020: No Fest
2021:Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (4.44)
2022: TAR (3.93)
To qualify for inclusion a film had to have been seen by at least half of The Professionals. So using that metric Here is the Professionals' Poll for TFF #50:
1) Poor Things (4.53)
2) Anatomy of a Fall (4.44)
3) The Taste of Things (4.43)
4) The Holdovers (4.21)
5) The Zone of Interest (4.15)
6) All of Us Strangers (3.92)
7) Saltburn (3.89)
8) Rustin (3.42)
9) The Bikeriders (3.23)
10) Fingernails (3.13)
11) Nyad (3.11)
12) El Conde (2.68)
The films that were seen by the most pros were Poor Things and The Bikeriders. Each was seen by 15 out of the 16. Next in line were The Holdovers and Saltburn which were watched by 14 of the 16.
It's interesting to note that five films reached a better average score from this year's lineup than last year's top average for TAR (3.93).
After this year's poll, The Professionals' All Time Top Ten (through 2023) looks like this with Poor Things entering the all time Pros Top Ten at #9. Son of Saul and Marcel the Shell with Shoes On which had been tied for the all time #10 spot were displaced.
1) Moonlight (4.87) (16)
2) Parasite (4.75) (19)
3) Roma (4.73) (18)
4) Birdman (4.72) (14)
5) 12 Years a Slave (4.70-tie) (13)
6) Central Park Five (4.70-tie) (12)
7) Foxcatcher (4.63) (14)
8) La La Land (4.58) (16)
9) Poor Things (4.53) (23)
10) Argo (4.50-tie) (12)
10) The Shape of Water (4.50-tie) (17)
RE-VISITING TFF #50
***My first thought is how solid TFF in 2023 was. The lineup was varied and deep. I was particularly taken with The Holdovers, The Zone of Interest, The Bikeriders and Poor Things. I missed getting in All of Us Strangers, Anatomy of a Fall and Nyad which were on my initial list to get to during the festival but I got to add Daddio, Tuesday and The Falling Stars all of which I enjoyed/admired.
The fest was DEEP!
***As always, it's great to see friends and colleagues at the festival and catch up. It's also fun to make new friends. Do I always get to run into people I want to see? Nope. But I got to see some folks who returned to the fest after having been absent for a bit. Always nice.
***Also always nice is meeting readers of the blog. That might be the best part! It's certainly not the "perks". Absent the accreditation as a journalist there aren't any perks.
***Readership really exploded this year. It always spikes in August and September as the fest approaches and then happens but 2023 blew through previous highs for views. As I post this morning MTFB has had approximately 78,000 views in the last 40 days.
***For those who missed it-MTFB went 24/25 on The Final Bets this year. 6 of 10 from the Original Ten bets back in June and the overall percentage of correct predictions from the final posted since I started recording these as "Bets" is 97%.
OSCAR EXPERTS AND TFF
I ran down some of the latest projections from some serious Oscarologists after the fest concluded. Thee are projections post-Telluride and with a good portion of Venice concluded. I'll be passing some of these along in the context of TFF #50 films over the next week to ten days. In each case I'm looking at their projections in the eight "above-the-line categories: Best Picture, Direction, the four acting categories and the two screenplay categories.
Poor Things with five nominations with one other possibility: Best Picture, Direction (Lanthimos), Actress (Stone), Supporting Actor (Ruffalo) and Adapted Screenplay. The Other possibility is a second Supporting Actor nomination for Willem Dafoe. As an aside, I fully expect Poor Things will load on craft nominations as well. I can see the film grabbing double digit nominations when Oscar noms are announced on Jan. 23rd.
The Zone of Interest with four nominations: Best Picture, Direction (Glazer), Actress (Huller) and Adapted Screenplay.
The Holdovers with three nominations and an additional possibility: Best Picture, Actor (Giamatti) and Original Screenplay. The added possibility is a nomination for Alexander Payne for direction.
All of Us Strangers with one nomination and two other chances: Best Adapted Screenplay. The other shots are Actor (Scott) and Supporting Actor (Bell).
Saltburn with one nomination and another possibility: Best Original Screenplay. The other chance is Best Picture.
Rustin is projected to have a Best Actor nomination for Coleman Domingo.
TFF #50 films that Davis does not have predicted with a nomination but does have close enough to be considered potentials include:
An astounding six "maybes" for The Bikeriders: Best Picture, Direction (Nichols), Actor (Butler), Supporting Actress (Comer), Supporting Actor (Hardy) and Original Screenplay.
Nyad with a shot for Annette Bening as Best Actress.
Anatomy of a Fall possible for Best Original Screenplay.
POOR THINGS WINS IN VENICE
Yorgos Lanthimos' Poor Things, which screened to pack houses at Telluride last week, has won The Golden Lion, the top prize given at the 80th Venice Film festival. Two other TFF films earned honors from Venice juries. Pablo Larrain won Best Screenplay for El Conde and Alex Braverman's Andy Kaufman documentary Thank You Very Much was named Best Documentary in the Venice Classics section.
ME AND THE BBC
I wrote last week that I had been approached by the BBC to be interviewed for their program Talking Movies with Tom Brook. I said "sure" and that interview occurred a week ago on Sunday.
Well, the program appeared on the BBC yesterday and here in the USA on BBC News. I lifted it and edited it to focus on my "appearance". I'm in twice and my guest star is Anne Thompson of Indiewire:
TRAILERS: NYAD AND THE ROYAL HOTEL
NYAD:
THE ROYAL HOTEL:
THE PEOPLE'S TELLURIDE
You have another week until the clock runs out on you chance to be a part of this year's People's poll of TFF #50 films.
All you have to do is rate the films you saw and then report to me your assessment of each film on a 1-5 scale with 1 being "UGH!" and 5 being "GREAT".
Report your ratings to: mpgort@gmail.com
The deadline for this year to turn in your ratings will be Sept. 15th.
EMAIL: mpgort@gmail.com
X (Twitter) @TheMTFB OR @Gort2
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TEN BETS #6-POST TORONTO'S FIRST ANNOUNCEMENT AND THE VENICE LINEUP
Here's a look a last week's Ten Bets and Other Possibilities with films that I believe the TIFF announcement on Monday revealed as films that will play T-ride and highlighted in yellow.
1) The Holdovers/Alexander Payne
2) Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos
3) Saltburn/Emerald Fennell
4) Strangers/Andrew Haigh
5) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi
6) Monster/Kore-eda
7) Anatomy of a Fall/Justine Triet
8) Fallen Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki
9) The Teachers' Lounge/Ilker Catak
10) The Pot-au-Feu/Trinh Hung
Other possibilities: The Zone of Interest/Glazer, The End/Oppenheimer, El Conde/Pablo Larrain, Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe, The American Buffalo/Burns and Shirley/Ridley.
The only film from the above list that the Monday TIFF list nuked from the lists above was Hirokazu Kore-eda's Monster. Everything else among the Bets and Possibilities is still in play.
There were three other films that Toronto announced that I had been giving serious consideration to as potential TFF #50 choices that will not make it to T-ride:
La Chimera
Lee
The New Boy
How'd we get to this? Toronto's listed premiere status listed for each film selected.
If TIFF labels a film as a World Premiere or a North American Premiere that means no Telluride.
If TIFF labels a film an International or Canadian Premiere it means "Maybe" Telluride.
An "International Premiere" is defined as playing for the first time outside its nation of origin. So when you see that designation you also have to look at the nation it came from. If it is a film from the United States that means it will have played somewhere in the U.S. prior to its Toronto debut. Usually that can only mean one of three places: Sundance, Fantastic Fest or Telluride.
That's why I think The Holdovers, Rustin, Nyad, Wildcat and Fingernails will screen for the first time for the public at Telluride.
Fair Play was also announced as an International Premiere and hails from the U.S. but screened at Sundance.
Another International Premiere was A Difficult Year but it screened in its home nation of France.
A "Canadian Premiere" indicates that the film will have already screened somewhere in North America. That also usually means Sundance, Fantastic Fest or Telluride.
That's how we get to Cannes films Anatomy of a Fall and The Zone of Interest.
The Royal Hotel is listed as a Canadian Premiere and doesn't get the International label as it will not have screened in either of its "home" countries of The U.K. or Australia.
Finally Flora and Son is listed as a Canadian Premiere and played Sundance and maybe because it will not have played in one of its "home" countries Ireland, that's why it labeled Canadian rather than International.
As for Venice...their announcement never closes any film out of a Telluride possibility. What it can do is show you films that could make it. Then, a few week's later, when Venice announces its actual schedule you have to pay attention to the films that have been scheduled in the first three days or so. It's not as precise as the Toronto info but you can often get a good bead on a number of other films that will make the trip to the San Juans.
That said, here are Venice/Golden Lion competition titles announced Tuesday that we should watch for on Venice schedule release day:
And FINALLY, with all that said, here is the sixth iteration of my "Ten Bets" for TFF #50:
1) The Holdovers
2) Nyad
3) Anatomy of a Fall
4) The Zone of Interest
5) The Royal Hotel
6) Rustin
7) Wildcat
8) Fingernails
9) Saltburn (see below)
10) The Pigeon Tunnel (see below)
Other possibilities: Fallen Leaves, Poor Things, The Teachers' Lounge, The Pot-au-Feu, The End, El Conde, Freud's Last Session, Shirley, The American Buffalo.
SALTBURN FOR TFF #50 CONFIRMED BY BARBERA
Barry Keoghan in Saltburn via World of Reel
Much like last year, Venice chief Alberto Barbera has spilled some tea regarding a film that he says will platy at TFF #50. Barbera says that Emerald Fennell's much sought after Saltburn will screen first at Telluride.
World of Reel reported that Barbera revealed the Saltburn news via an interview with Screen Daily. WOR Editor-in-Chief Jordan Ruimy writing:
"Venice’s Alberto Barbera basically confirming my original intel, three hours later. “Saltburn” is going to Telluride"
The Toronto International Film Festival announced the documentaries selected for its lineup on Wednesday and based on premiere designation it looks as if Errol Morris' film about famed spy novelist...and real life spy John le Carre will play as a part of the program for TFF #50. The film is titled The Pigeon Tunnel.
Morris is a multiple-time presenter at T-ride with offerings such as Tabloid, Wormwood, The B-Side and more. Plus his position as a member of the "Esteemed Council of Advisors" suggests that his latest doc venture would be a likely choice for T-ride.
The TIFF designation of the film as an International Premiere is a strong indication that The Pigeon Tunnel is headed for the San Juans.
Part Four today of MTFB's rundown of the most frequent distribution companies that have screened films at TFF over the past seven years. Today's outfit is NEON.
NEON has had one fewer film actually play Telluride than last Monday's company-A24. That means that NEON is also very close to averaging two films per festival since 2015.
Here's what we have seen from NEON at TFF in that time frame:
2022: Broker, All the Beauty and the Bloodshed (Oscar nominated for Best Documentary)
2021: Petite Maman, Spencer (Oscar nominated for Best Actress-Kristen Stewart) , Flee (Oscar nominated for Best Animated Film, Best International Film and Best Documentary), Three Minutes-A Lengthening
2020: Ammonite*** if the fest had happened
2019: Parasite (nominated for six Academy Awards and won four including Best Picture and Director). Portrait of a Lady on Fire, Amazing Grace
2018: Border (Oscar nominated for Best Makeup and Hair), The Biggest Little Farm
2017: None
2016: The B-Side: Elsa Dorfman's Portrait Photography
As we look to NEON's possible participation in TFF #50 we discover that they have a lot of films that could be in play. Foremost is probably Cannes Palme d'Or winner Anatomy of a Fall. The Palme winner hasn't played in Telluride since 2019's Parasite (also distributed by NEON) but that absence may actually work to increase the odds for a spot at Telluride this year.
That said, the most likely two films from the NEON stable to make the TFF #50 list in my estimation are Alice Rohrwacher's La Chimera and Kitty Green's The Royal Hotel. Each of these films start with a 50/50 chance of making the TFF lineup.
Other NEON films that are possibles and where I'd place their chances of selection for TFF are:
The End/Oppenheimer 30%
The Actor/Johnson 20%
Longlegs/Perkins 20%
And I'd also say that if Raoul Peck's George Orwell (co-produced by Alex Gibney) documentary is ready that it too is a possibility at 20%. Its currently listed as "filming".
SALTBURN AND TFF
I thought for a good long while that Emerald Fennell's Saltburn might be a real player for a TFF bid. The writer/director is coming off an Oscar win for Best Original Screenplay for Promising Young Woman (2020) with this much anticipated film.
Well, Jordan Ruimy on Monday reported that Telluride appears to me making a push for the film. Ruimy wrote:
"Now I’m hearing that TIFF, Telluride and Venice are fighting it out for the world premiere of Fennell’s film. Who will win the “Saltburn” stakes? My money is on Venice. It probably will world premiere on the Lido."
And, of course, a Venice World Premiere doesn't necessarily preclude a following screening at Telluride.
IMDb Pro lists Saltburn's distribution status for the U.S. with Amazon but only labeling it as the distributor for video.
FIRST TEN BETS IN ONE WEEK
One week from today MTFB will put up the first Ten Bets for TFF #50. Past attempts at the first Ten Bets have shown that and average of five of the ten will actually show up and play at TFF. Then as the summer continues I will adjust the Ten Bets each week on Thursday to reflect the growing body of evidence pointing to which films we'll be offered over Labor Day weekend.
News this week that writer/director Damien Chazelle (whose La La Land and First Man both played TFF) has been named the Jury President for the Venice Film Festival's Golden Lion competition. As a part of reporting that story Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel included a compilation of films he says have a real shot at making the Venice lineup. TFF watchers take note as the Venice/Telluride connection is historically almost, but not quite, as pronounced as the Cannes/T-ride connection.
Over the past ten years Venice and Telluride have, on average, shared 6-7 films per year. As a consequence, paying attention to Venice titles and also when they get scheduled for their initial screening in Italy can often give us clues as to what may play both places. Thus, the interest in Ruimy's ruminations. He lists 25+ films. Here's my take on the Telluride prospects for some of them if Ruimy is correct.
Most Likely: The Holdovers (Payne)
Decent Chance: Strangers (Haight), Poor Things (Lanthimos), The Royal Hotel (Green), El Condo (Larrain)
Could Be: Priscilla (Coppola), Challengers (Guadagnino), Saltburn (Fennell), The Bikeriders (Nichols)
One of my "most hoped for" titles for TFF #50 is David Fincher's The Killer starring Michael Fassbender but World of Reel reported this week that the buzz is that it may skip fall fests altogether. In his latest update about the film, WOR 's Jordan Ruimy writes:
"Last month, I posted a reaction to Fincher’s upcoming film. It was very positive. From what I understood, Netflix hadn’t made a decision on whether or not this would go to festivals such as Venice and Telluride, but they’re leaning towards skipping them."
Now, I have always thought that The Killer's TFF chances were slim but this latest dash of cold water seems to make it even more unlikely. I guess it's worth noting that the tidbit from WOR is not definitive as the phrase is "leaning towards skipping'...but...well...
We have a trailer for Anton Corbijn's Squaring the Circle (The Story of Hipgnosis) that played at TFF #49:
ASSESSING THE 60'S
Speaking of World of Reel, Jordan has asked me to submit a ballot for his upcoming post about the greatest films of the 1960's. I think that is likely to be posted this week sometime. Previously Ruimy has posted lists for the 1970's, 80's, 90's, 00's and the 2010's. I've been fortunate enough to have been included in all but the 80's list.
I started with a list of around 20 films and then culled it down to the ten that Ruimy requested. Here's what I voted for in alphabetical order:
2001: A Space Odyssey
The Apartment
Cool Hand Luke
Dr. Strangelove
The Graduate
The Hustler
Lawrence of Arabia
Midnight Cowboy
To Kill a Mockingbird
They Shoot Horses Don't They
We'll see where they end up later this week. My guess is that 2001 comes in at the top spot.
I kind of teased this a little bit in my last post. MTFB passed its 750,000 view over the weekend. Three quarters of a million views! That makes my head explode just a little bit.
MTFB's first appeared on August 8th 2008 (8/8/08). Today marks the 2115th post since I started this thing meaning that each post has averaged 355ish views. The single most viewed post was Jan. 18, 2018. That post focused on precursors that were upcoming for the 90th Oscar ceremony and a Variety piece featuring Greta Gerwig and Saorise Ronan talking about Lady Bird.
Eric Kohn and the gang at Indiewire has put together a list of 50 films that the billas films they'd "like to see" at Cannes in May. The heading on the email link for the story from Twitter calls them predictions though.
As I have said many times, the Cannes/Telluride connection is very real. Last year the Cannes/Telluride crossover was nine films by my count:
Armageddon Time
Broker
Close
Godland
Holy Spider
One Fine Morning
Tori and Lokita
Le Pupille
Aftersun
Last year from Indiewire's 50 film wish list I culled 15 "possible" crossover films and from that list, seven actually made the trip: Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider, One Fine Morning, Tori and Lokita and Women Talking.
Bones and All was the only film on last year's Indiewire list that made the Telluride lineup (and from Venice not Cannes) that I didn't have in the 2022 version of this post.
The Indiewire post starts with the caveat that everyone is assuming that Killers of the Flower Moon will screen out of competition at Cannes as well as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny. I'm already frequently on record that I'm making blood sacrifices in my backyard to get Killers to TFF but that I think the chances are slim. Not impossible...but slim. Of course Indy 5 releases on June 30th.
They also mention Pedro Almodovar's short film Strange Way of Life which is tipped to be the opening night film. I actually think there is a reasonable possibility that it does make the TFF #50 lineup.
That said...here are what I think are the best shots at Cannes-then-Telluride films for the 50th edition of The SHOW from the Indieiwire list:
Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a Venice spec piece on Saturday and it has some interesting ideas. Venice and Cannes have nearly the same level of crossover to Telluride with Venice averaging (over the last decade) 7.3 films making the Venice/Telluride double dip.
Last year there were 10 films that accomplished the double play:
Bardo
Bobi Wine
Bones and All
A Compassionate Spy
Desperate Souls: Midnight Cowboy...
Fragments of Paradise
Living
TAR
March on Rome
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
So what does Jordan have that could (or that I want to) make the Venice/Telluride connection?
Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos
AND/Yorgos Lanthimos
The Killer/David Fincher
Blitz/Steve McQueen
How Do You Live?/Hayao Myazaki
The Holdovers/Alexander Payne
Maestro/Bradley Cooper
Challengers/Luca Guadagnino
Strangers/Andrew Haigh
Ruimy also mentions a couple of other films that could be in the mix for Venice first and then T-ride: Sofia Coppola's Priscilla and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.
