What the Hell Is Going On? / We Have a Poster! / Toronto Announces Some Films Today?

 WHAT THE HELL IS GOING ON?

Figuring out Telluride is never an easy task but this year takes the cake.  Writers' strike, Actors' strike...nothing is stable...all is squishy.

Late Friday/Saturday:

1) Guadagnino's Challengers backs out of Opening Venice and sets a new release date in late April 2024.  Any chance that it might have been a TFF #50 possibility is all but obliterated.  The reason?  No Zendaya because of the SAG-Aftra strike.

2) Bradley Cooper's Maestro going to New York?  That's what World of Reel suggests based on reporting from Indiewire.  If true, that means no TFF #50 bow for the film from Netflix.

3) Also seemingly out of Telluride 2023 is Hayao Miyazaki's anticipated The Boy and the Heron which Indiewire's Eric Kohn suggests might be Opening Toronto '23.  And yes, that would mean no TFF #50 play.

4) However in that same Kohn/Indiewire post there seems to be a level of assurance that Ethan Hawkes' Wildcat WILL PLAY in T-ride over Labor Day.  Kohn writes:

"Buyers are already circling potential TIFF pickups like Ethan Hawke’s “Wildcat,” which stars his daughter Maya Daisy Hawke as Flannery O’Connor. Hawke plans to promote the movie, also expected at Telluride"

5) Intriguingly...none of the news of the last 72+ hours would preclude a North American premiere of either Scorsese's Killers of the Flower Moon or Fincher's The Killer.  Think on that.

WE HAVE A POSTER!

TFF's 50th edition poster from Meow Wolf artist Luke Dorman (who did the super TFF #48 poster) has been released:

The cool thing here is that Dorman includes Easter eggs for all of the previous TFF posters.  

TORONTO ANNOUNCES SOME FILMS TODAY?

Media reports indicate that the Toronto International Film Festival is likely to announce some of their confirmed titles today after having slid by on July 19th with only a single title named.

You'll want to be paying attention if this actually transpires to the "premiere status" announced for each film as that can give us clues as to whether or not a film may be playing at TFF #50.

I'll be on the road when and if this announcement happens so I may be a bit late to the game in as far as noting what might be in and out vis-a-vis TFF #50.  Rest assured, MTFB will get caught up ASAP.

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Challengers to Open Venice / Speaking of Venice... / TFF #50 Poster???

CHALLENGERS TO OPEN VENICE

The Venice Film Festival announced last Thursday that Luca Guadagnino's Challengers would be their opening film.  Guadagninio's tennis set love triangle starring Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor has been sitting on my "maybe" list for TFF #50 for awhile mostly because of Luca's Bones and All and Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams having had appeared as apart of the TFF #49 program.

Now, its selection as the Opening Night film doesn't necessarily preclude it from also playing Telluride.  Heck, I write on here every year about paying attention to when Venice schedules their screenings as films that screen in the first 3-4 days can and often do move on to Telluride.  

However...

There is a winkle here. Venice Openers are not a consistent Telluride play.  It hasn't happened since 2018 when Damien Chazelle's First Man opened Venice and then came to TFF.  As a matter of fact, since I started attending Telluride in 2006, the Venice Opener has only then played Telluride six times:

2018: First Man

2017: Downsizing

2016: La La Land

2014: Birdman

2013: Gravity

2010: Black Swan

Again, all of this doesn't mean that Challengers won't make it to Telluride but it seems like a bit of an uphill struggle at this point.

[This story has been corrected from an earlier version which cited incorrect dates.]

SPEAKING OF VENICE...

Alberto Barbera, the director of the Venice Fest, is set to announce the bulk of their lineup on July 25th.  I checked in with World of reel which has been keeping a running list of possible Venetian titles for possible films that will do a stop in Telluride after making their World Premiere on the Lido.

WOR's latest came down on Friday.  You can see the complete list here.

From this latest speculation, here are my best guesses re: what could make the trip to Colorado:

Lee/Ellen Kuras

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

El Conde/Pablo Larrain

Saltburn/Emerald Fenell

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Fingernails/Christos Nikou

TFF #50 POSTER???

I wrote on June 26th about the lack of information regarding TFF 2023"S Guest Director(s).  Normally the Guest Director(s) is/are announced in June and, of late, usually the third week of June.  

However, I suspect that the Fest's leadership is following (at least to some extent) the playbook from TFF #40.  Back in 2013, I don't believe the Festival released any Guest Directing info until the lineup was announced the day before the fest began.

So I won't be surprised if that's how TFF plays it this time around.

But the poster...

For most of the years I've been blogging about Telluride the poster announcement was likely to happen in May or early-to-mid June.  That's true for 2009-2016.  We even knew the poster for TFF #40 on May 30th of that year.

Beginning with 2017, the announcement has come in July three of five times.  The exceptions are a way early announcement in 2021 (it came in February).  The other is from 2018 when Woody Pirtle was the artist but I haven't been able to pin down the date that The SHOW made that announcement.

The latest poster announcement I can find was Edwina White's for 2018 that came on July 22nd.

So, ultimately...you have to believe that we're right on the cusp of an announcement.  Maybe?

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Ten Bets for TFF #50 / Neglia's List / Trailers for Challengers and Priscilla

 TEN BETS FOR TFF #50

Today's the day...the countdown to the lineup announcement for the 50th Telluride Film Festival on this blog begins in earnest today with 2023's first edition of MTFB's "Ten Bets".

Regular readers will know that this is my first "real" stab at predicting what will be playing at Telluride over the Labor Day weekend.  I'll subsequently adjust and expand the list as the summer goes on.  Serious indicators occur with announcements about what will be screening at the Toronto and Venice fests and, to a lesser degree Venice's scheduling and the New York Film Fest lineup.

The final Ten Bets for 2023 will be the Monday post on August 28th.

Again, as dedicated readers of this space are aware, MTFB on average lands between 5-6 films on this initial list that end up in the lineup when it is revealed.  To wit, last year this was the list of films that comprised the first Ten Bets for TFF #49.  Films that actually screened at TFF are in Bold.

1) Bardo/Inarritu

2) One Fine Morning/Hansen-Love

3) The Son/Zeller

4) Close/Dhont

5) Women Talking/Polley

6) Aftersun/Wells

7) Showing Up/Reichardt

8) White Noise/Baumbach

9) Broker/Kore-eda

10) She Said/M. Schrader

6/10

Here was the 2021 first Ten Bets:

1) The Power of the Dog/Campion

2) Muhammad Ali/Burns, Burns and McMahon

3) The Card Counter/Schrader

4) Nightmare Alley/Del Toro

5) The Velvet Underground/Haynes

6) Bergman Island/Hansen-Love

7) Cow/Arnold

8) A Hero/Farhadi

9) Blonde/Dominik

10) The Story of Looking/Cousins

8/10

Going back to the advent of my Ten Bets approach, here was the track record from 2011-2019:

2011: 8/10
2012: 5/10
2013: 6/10
2014: 7/10
2015: 4/10
2016: 3/10
2017: 7/10
2018: 5/10

2019: 4/10

So, with all of that as prelude, here is MTFB's first Ten Bets for films to play at The SHOW in 2023:

1) The Holdovers/Payne

2) May December/Haynes

3) Nyad/Chin and Vasarhelyi

4) Monster/Kore-eda

5) Strangers/Haigh

6) El Conde/Larrain

7) Poor Things/Lanthimos

8) Anatomy of a Fall/Triet

9) The American Buffalo/Burns

10) The End/Oppenheimer

Other possibilities: Freud's Last Session/Brown, The Teachers' Lounge/Catak, The Zone of Ineterst/Glazer, Saltburn/Fennell, The Royal Hotel/Green, Rustin/Wolfe and Shirley/Ridley.

There you go.  Now let's see how this all unfolds over the next ten weeks.

NEGLIA'S LIST

Matt Neglia, who runs Next Best Picture, posted a terrific piece this week about what film fests had hosted the World Premiere's of Best Picture Oscar nominees.  Neglia focused on the nominees since AMPAS adopted the expanded Best Picture field in 2009.

Here's his list for TFF (with best Picture winners in Bold.):

Telluride Film Festival

2022: Women Talking

2021: Belfast & King Richard

2020: None

2019: Ford v Ferrari

2018: None

2017: Darkest Hour, Lady Bird

2016: Moonlight

2015: Room

2014: The Imitation Game

2013: 12 Years A Slave

2012: Argo

2011: The Descendants

2010: 127 Hours, The King’s Speech

2009: Up In The Air

Neglia also includes analysis for Sundance, Cannes, Berlin, SXSW, Venice, Toronto, New York and AFI.

His compilation shows the following statistics for the number of Best Picture World Premieres at these fests:

Venice Film Festival: 21

Sundance Film Festival: 15

Telluride Film Festival: 15

Cannes Film Festival: 14

Toronto Film Festival: 12

New York Film Festival: 8

AFI Fest: 3

Berlin Film Festival: 1

SXSW: 1

So, since 2009 TFF has had the second most World Premieres of Best Picture nominees trailing only Venice and tied with Sundance.  However, what Matt doesn't look is the North American Premieres that happen at Telluride (and Toronto and New York for that matter).  If you factor those in, then Telluride's place in the fest firmament re: Oscar BP nominations is more pronounced.

Here's the rundown for each year where TFF screened the North American premiere (usually) of films that were Oscar nominated for Best Picture after having their World Premiere at an earlier fest:

2022: TAR (Venice)

2021: The Power of the Dog (Venice)

2020: Nomadland (Venice), The Father (Sundance)

2019: Parasite (Cannes), Marriage Story (Venice)

2018: The Favourite (Venice), Roma (Venice)

2017: The Shape of Water (Venice)

2016: Arrival (Venice), La La Land (Venice), Manchester by the Sea (Sundance)

2015: Spotlight (Venice)

2014: Birdman (Venice)

2013: Nebraska (Cannes), Gravity (Venice)

2012: Amour (Cannes)

2011: The Artist (Cannes)

2010: Black Swan (Venice)

2009: An Education (Sundance)

So all told, 35 films have played Telluride since 2009 and gone on to a Best Picture nomination.  Neglia points out that during that same time period 35 films were Best Picture nominated without any festival debut at all.

But Toronto is a huge player.  Yes, they have only World Premiered 12 films from 2009-2022 that have been BP nominated BUT...they have also screened a whopping 41 films that were not World Premieres at TIFF but did receive a Best Picture nomination.

Five each from Sundance and Cannes.  17 from Venice and 14 of the Telluride 15 World Premieres went on to Toronto.  The only film not of Telluride's 15 that didn't go on to TIFF was King Richard.

Nine Best Picture Oscar winners in the 2009-22 time frame played both Telluride and Toronto.  Here are those films:

2021: Nomadland

2020: Parasite

2018: The Shape of Water

2017: Moonlight

2016: Spotlight

2014: 12 Years a Slave

2013: Argo

2012: The Artist

2011: The King's Speech

There's a lot more to digest from Matt's post which is linked here.

TRAILERS FOR CHALLENGERS AND PRISCILLA

We have new trailers this week for a couple of films that are on the periphery of Telluride possibilities.  

Luca Guadagnino could return to TFF this year with his story of a three person love affair.  Challengers features, Zendaya, Mike Faist and Josh O'Connor in a film set in the world of professional tennis.  It is being distributed by United Artists Releasing. The film's release date is set for Sept. 15th.  Guadagnino's Bones and All as well as Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams were both screened at TFF #49.  

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film.

Here's the trailer from YouTube:

And also this week, the trailer for Sofia Coppola's Priscilla which tells the story of the woman who married and divorced Elvis Presley.  It stars Cailee Spaeny as Priscilla with Jacob Elordi as the King.

Coppola hasn't screened a film at Telluride since 2003's Lost in Translation but with it being TFF's 50th edition and the Coppola family having strong ties to the history of Telluride, I can see her returning with this film. Priscilla does not yet have an announced release date.  Distribution is being handled by A24.

Again, from YouTube:

Both Alex Billington at First Showing.net and Steven Prusakowski at Awards Radar are suggesting that Telluride is realistic stop for the film 

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750,000 / 50 for Cannes / Meanwhile...Venice

750,000

I kind of teased this a little bit in my last post.  MTFB passed its 750,000 view over the weekend.  Three quarters of a million views!  That makes my head explode just a little bit. 

MTFB's first appeared on August 8th 2008 (8/8/08).  Today marks the 2115th post since I started this thing meaning that each post has averaged 355ish views.  The single most viewed post was Jan. 18, 2018.  That post focused on precursors that were upcoming for the 90th Oscar ceremony and a Variety piece featuring Greta Gerwig and Saorise Ronan talking about Lady Bird.

Here's the very post.

Here's the most viewed post.

50 FOR CANNES

Eric Kohn and the gang at Indiewire has put together a list of 50 films that the billas films they'd "like to see" at Cannes in May.  The heading on the email link for the story from Twitter calls them predictions though.  

As I have said many times, the Cannes/Telluride connection is very real.  Last year the Cannes/Telluride crossover was nine films by my count:

Armageddon Time

Broker

Close

Godland 

Holy Spider

One Fine Morning

Tori and Lokita

Le Pupille

Aftersun

Last year from Indiewire's 50 film wish list I culled 15 "possible" crossover films and from that list, seven actually made the trip: Armageddon Time, Broker, Close, Holy Spider, One Fine Morning, Tori and Lokita and Women Talking.

Bones and All was the only film on last year's Indiewire list that made the Telluride lineup (and from Venice not Cannes) that I didn't have in the 2022 version of this post.

The Indiewire post starts with the caveat that everyone is assuming that Killers of the Flower Moon will screen out of competition at Cannes as well as Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny.  I'm already frequently on record that I'm making blood sacrifices in my backyard to get Killers to TFF but that I think the chances are slim.  Not impossible...but slim.  Of course Indy 5 releases on June 30th.

They also mention Pedro Almodovar's short film Strange Way of Life which is tipped to be the opening night film.  I actually think there is a reasonable possibility that it does make the TFF #50 lineup.

That said...here are what I think are the best shots at Cannes-then-Telluride films for the 50th edition of The SHOW from the Indieiwire list:

The Book of Solutions/Michel Gondry

Dead Leaves/Aki Kaurismaki

La Chimera/Alice Rohrwacher

Io Capitano/Matteo Garrone

Monster/Hirokazu Kore-eda

The New Boy/Warwick Thornton

May/December/Todd Haynes

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Royal Hotel/Kitty Green

Tokyo Toilet/Wim Wenders

The Zone of Interest/Jonathan Glazer

Here's the complete Indiewire story.

MEANWHILE...VENICE

Jordan Ruimy at World of Reel posted a Venice spec piece on Saturday and it has some interesting ideas.  Venice and Cannes have nearly the same level of crossover to Telluride with Venice averaging (over the last decade) 7.3 films making the Venice/Telluride double dip.

Last year there were 10 films that accomplished the double play:

Bardo

Bobi Wine

Bones and All

A Compassionate Spy

Desperate Souls: Midnight Cowboy...

Fragments of Paradise

Living

TAR

March on Rome

All the Beauty and the Bloodshed

So what does Jordan have that could (or that I want to) make the Venice/Telluride connection?

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos

AND/Yorgos Lanthimos

The Killer/David Fincher

Blitz/Steve McQueen

How Do You Live?/Hayao Myazaki

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne

Maestro/Bradley Cooper

Challengers/Luca Guadagnino

Strangers/Andrew Haigh

Ruimy also mentions a couple of other films that could be in the mix for Venice first and then T-ride: Sofia Coppola's Priscilla and Jonathan Glazer's The Zone of Interest.

Here's Jordan's full post.

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Oscar #96 Spec and TFF #50 / Maybe Guadagnino...And Maybe Not

 OSCAR #96 AND TFF #50

As I have mentioned over the last couple of weeks, with the end of the Oscar Parade for another year, we can begin to seriously beginning to look at possibilities for the lineup for TFF #50.  One of the ways to do that is to gather information from pundits about what they suspect will be major films for the rest of the year.  To that end, I have begun collecting that data.  

Next Best Picture has up an early Oscar speculative list that includes many intriguing possibilities.  I have culled that list down to these  films based on the film's director and their history with Telluride or lack thereof, the film's distributor and their TFF history and the release dates for those that have been announced.  Here, in alphabetical order are the films from the NBP list that seem to me to have the best shot at a spot at TFF #50.  I have listed by title, director, distributor or producing studio and release date if known.

Blitz/Steve McQueen/Apple/TBD

The Color Purple/Blitz Bazawule/Warners/12/20/23

Fingernails/Christos Nikous/Apple/TBD

Foe/Garth Davis/Amazon/TBD

The Holdovers/Alexander Payne/Focus Features/11/10/23

The Killer/David Fincher/Netflix/11/10/23

Killers of the Flower Moon/Martin Scorsese/Apple/TBD

Lee/Ellem Kuras/No U.S. Distrib at present/TBD

Maestro/Bradley Cooper/Netflix/TBD

May December/Todd Haynes/No U.S. Distrib at present/TBD

Next Goal Wins/Taika Waititi/Searchlight/9/22/23

Nyad/J. Chin & E. Vasarhelyi/Netflix/TBD

Poor Things/Yorgos Lanthimos/Searchlight/TBD

Priscilla/Sofia Coppola/A24/TBD

Rustin/George C. Wolfe/Netflix/TBD

Saltburn/Emerald Fennell/Amazon/TBD

Shirley/John Ridley/Netflix/TBD

Untitled Bob Marley Film/Reinaldo Marcus Green/Paramount/1/12/24

The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar/Wes Anderson/Netflix/TBD

And on the "Other Potential Contenders" list:

Nightbitch/Marielle Heller/Searchlight/Hulu/TBD

The complete rundown from next Best Picture is linked here.

MAYBE GUADAGNINO...AND MAYBE NOT

Luca Guadagnino has had a couple of good TFF years with Bones and All and Salvatore: Shoemaker of Dreams appearing last year and his producing project The Truffle Hunters screening at TFF in 2020.  His latest directorial project is the tennis drama Challengers starring Zendaya and Mike Faist and comes from MGM/UA Releasing (Amazon).  I have ignored it as the film had an announced release date of August 11th.  

That appears to have changed in the past few days.  First notice I saw of it came from Erik Anderson's (Awards Watch) Twitter account:

As you can see, he was reporting the date had been changed to Sept. 15th, which, as you can see from the Tweet, puts it in a window to possibly play Venice and/or T-ride.  It could also conceivably screen at Toronto during its opening days.  The Sept. 15th date means no New York Fest.

Adding some fuel to the fire late Sunday was reporting from Jordan Ruimy and World of Reel suggesting that Challengers has secured a Venice bid.  That reporting is here.  

Ruimy's post also mentions that there are rumors that Guadagnino may be Venice's jury president this year which would almost certainly take it off the table for a TFF spot.  

Stay tuned.

Challenger's IMDb Profile appears to confirm the new date.  Here's the link to that.

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